2016 NEW HOMES CONSTRUCTION SURVEY

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1 2016 NEW HOMES CONSTRUCTION SURVEY

2 BELOW IS A BREAKDOWN OF WHERE OUR SURVEY RESPONDENTS OPERATE. Welcome to the first edition of the Knight Frank New Homes Construction Survey. The residential development industry has become an increasingly focused arena over the last months, with strong economic growth spurring renewed demand for accommodation INTRO following the downturn. It is clear that a chronic shortage of new housing now exists, with just approximately 3,000 new residential units expected to have been delivered in the capital by the end of 2015, which is just a third of what is required on an annual basis according to our survey. As leaders in development land consultancy for some time now, our highly skilled team at Knight Frank have been at the forefront in providing in-depth advice to Ireland s leading developers and builders on the viability of schemes and the type of product demanded in the challenged landscape we still find ourselves in. We utilised this extensive network to ask the development and building community their thoughts regarding the future of the new homes construction market in order to shed new light on the causes behind the lack of new residential supply in the country today, and the steps that can be taken to address the issue. The disconnect between the current cost of construction and the reduced purchasing power of prospective home buyers, driven by the new Central Bank lending regulations, appears to be behind the construction gridlock. The survey results show that an overwhelming 98% of respondents indicate that the building regulations introduced in recent years are acting as a barrier to construction while 96% of respondents believe that the Central Bank regulations will also have a negative impact. Despite the obstacles identified, the findings also contain grounds for optimism with 57% of builders of the opinion that construction activity this year will be stronger than last while 78% of respondents expect to expand their land bank over the next 12 months. CONNAUGHT 16% REST OF LEINSTER 75% DUBLIN We hope you enjoy delving into our survey and I would be delighted to personally discuss the findings further should you wish. JAMES MEAGHER DIRECTOR, NEW HOMES AND DEVELOPMENT LAND 5% MUNSTER INTERNATIONALLY 02 03

3 9 OF RESPONDENTS EXPECT TO BUILD LESS THAN 50 HOUSES BEFORE THE END OF THIS YEAR. HOUSES 57% OF RESPONDENTS PREDICT THAT THE VOLUME OF CONSTRUCTION THIS YEAR WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST. Developer Comment 61% LESS THAN 20 APARTMENTS 31% 6% The answers provided will vary greatly depending on which region we are operating in. We see positive growth in Dublin over the next 12 months, however, building activity growth in the midland areas is stagnant. 57% STRONGER 61% 17% 11% 11% LESS THAN % UNCHANGED International prime price growth comparison 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Dublin London New York Singapore Shanghai Source: Knight Frank Research; year-on-year growth to Q except for New York and Singapore which are to Q International prime rental growth comparison 10% 8% 6% 4% 0% - -4% -6% -8% Dublin London New York Singapore Shanghai Source: Knight Frank Research; year-on-year growth to Q % WEAKER 04 05

4 THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF RESPONSES SUGGESTS THAT THE SUSTAINABLE CONSTRUCTION LEVEL FOR DUBLIN IS AT LEAST 9,000 UNITS PER ANNUM. THERE IS A NOTABLE BIAS TOWARDS PURCHASING SITES WITH PLANNING IN PLACE. 4% 17% 28% <2,500 2,500-5,000 5,000-7,500 78% of respondents expect to increase their land bank in the next 12 months. The bias towards projects with planning in place reflects the preference of capital funders for schemes with planning. The cost of funding for schemes without planning in place is prohibitively high in the current finance constrained environment. 2 NO CHANGE 30% WITHOUT PLANNING 48% WITH PLANNING 17% 7,500-10,000 19% 10,000-15,000 11% 15,00-20,000 4% 20,000+ Approximately 3,000 new units are expected to have been delivered in Dublin by the end of Expectations on landbank purchases 06 The level of new home construction in Dublin over the past five years has been lower than every year in the previous forty years , , , September ,268 Is a shortage of skilled workers hampering your projects? 68% of builders see a shortage of skilled workers as either currently hampering project works or will do so over the next two years. 3 3 NO, NOT CURRENTLY But could become a problem in the next couple of years 36% NO, NOT CURRENTLY YES It is difficult to get the personnel we need at a reasonable cost 07

5 AN ASTOUNDING 96% OF DEVELOPERS BELIEVE THAT THE NEW BANKING REGULATIONS WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OVER THE NEXT 2 YEARS. POSITIVE EFFECT NO IMPACT 67% OF BUILDERS SEE THE PLANNING SYSTEM AS INEFFICIENT. REASONABLY EFFICIENT 2 59% 37% A LARGE NEGATIVE IMPACT Knight Frank Comment We are seeing that first time buyers are being pushed out to the regions as they are unable to afford the deposit for a 3-bed semi detached house within the M50 due to the new Central Bank lending criteria. The knock-on effect of this leads to urban sprawl, putting additional strain on our transport infrastructure as people are forced to commute longer distances. 37% VERY INEFFICIENT SOMEWHAT INEFFICIENT INDIFFERENT 11% SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE 30% 08 09

6 98% OF OUR RESPONDENTS STATE THAT BUILDING REGULATIONS INTRODUCED IN RECENT YEARS ARE CHALLENGING TO BUILDING ACTIVITY. RECENT MODIFICATIONS ARE WELCOMED BY ALL STAKEHOLDERS. THE REFORM OF THE PART V REGULATIONS HAVE BROUGHT WELCOME CLARITY FOR DEVELOPERS. 44% 39% 17% SOMEWHAT OF A POSITIVE IMPACT NO IMPACT A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE IMPACT Developer Comment I think that the government needs to look at the amount that goes in planning contributions and VAT. On a typical 3-bed semi in Dublin that would sell for 300,000, approximately 90,000 goes to government or semi-state bodies. 45% SERIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO CONSTRUCTION Over 60% of respondents found that the reforms have had a significant impact. 53% SOMEWHAT OF AN IMPEDIMENT NO EFFECT 10 11

7 Conclusion INTRO The inaugural Knight Frank New Homes Construction Survey has highlighted some key factors that are hindering the construction sector from delivering sufficient new supply to the market and alleviating the current housing crisis from the developer s and builder s perspective. The need for a sensible adjustment of the Central Bank mortgage rules in an appropriate manner for the Dublin Region has been identified in our survey as one of the major issues that must be addressed. While there is clearly a need for increased Central Bank supervision of the mortgage market to prevent a repeat of the housing bubble, the timing of the introduction of the regulations at the bottom of the cycle has clearly impacted on development activity. Encouragingly, we at Knight Frank are increasingly seeing signs of recovery in the provision of financing for developers, with the availability of finance now greater than any period seen in the past five years. Senior debt providers are now starting to compete against those offering mezzanine and equity finance, while the two pillar banks have re-emerged as lenders for projects which have planning permission in place. KEY CONTACTS: James Meagher Evan Lonergan John Ring Director Director Investment Analyst HT Meagher O Reilly trading as Knight Frank This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by HT Meagher O Reilly trading as Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of HT Meagher O Reilly trading as Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of HT Meagher O Reilly trading as Knight Frank to the form and content within which it appears. HT Meagher O Reilly trading as Knight Frank, Registered in Ireland No , PSR Reg. No HT Meagher O Reilly New Homes Limited trading as Knight Frank, Registered in Ireland No , PSR Reg. No Registered Office Upper Pembroke Street, Dublin 2.

N O. 2 D U B L I N L A N D I N G S

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