Mass Valuation: Processes & Decisions
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1 C+LR KEN Cadastre + Land Registry Knowledge Exchange Network Mass Valuation: Processes & Decisions Gerhard.Muggenhuber@bev.gv.at BEV Federal Office of Metrology and Surveying Dept. International Relations, State Borders A-1020 Vienna, Schiffamtsgasse 1-3 PhD-student at TU-Vienna
2 Land Administration Processes Data Processes Resources
3 Land Administration Processes
4 Price - Value Theory of price: benefit gained from those who demand the entity meets the seller's marginal costs Theory of value: Present worth of future benefit Classical economic: Labor theory of value Exchange value Levels of value Perspectives on value Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer.
5 Model Valuation cycle Understanding Business Data Formulate Problem Monitor Results Data Preparation Gathering / Structuring / Analyzing / Transforming Deploy Model Apply Model Building Predictive Modeling Model Validation Testing CRISP-DM Data Mining Process Model adapted from {Espinosa #3270}.
6 Data categories select / cooperate to ensure access VALUEi = f (Si, Li, Fi, i) + f (x,y,t) Site OBJEK Improvement Land T legal Restrictions Rights VALUE Financial Costs / Risks Benefits Location Infrastructure Dis-/Amenities
7 Real Estate Market a dynamic system VALUE i = f (S i, L i, F i, i ) + f (x,y,t) How to gather / store / share data? Are our processes at C&LR fit for purpose? PPP: D: Sales price collection / USA: MLS / SLO: sales-price-db A: Transfer-prices Housing Register How to contribute to a dynamic system? flats new/old houses
8 Life Cycle Real Estate Market observations SUPPLY TRANSFER DEMAND Statistic Austria (GWR) Regions Use Regulation Constructing Investors Cadastre Asking Price Land Tenure Public Reg. C& LR Subdivisions Buildings TO SE LL TO RE NT TO SELL TO RENT Statistic Austria Land - Building land Potential land use Land& Building / / - Improved building land Under construction New construction - - Building permits Construction costs Building completed Old construction - - Energy efficiency - - Offer Price Owners Users Lester, B., Visschers, L. & Wolthoff, R. (2013): Competing with Asking Prices. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 7163, McCord, J. (2014): Northern Ireland Asking Price Index,
9 Real estate transfer market to sell to rent
10 Spatio-temporal variation of characteristics & price alternating granularity / missing characteristics To sell To rent Flat Flat+ Hous e Land
11 Real Estate: Assets & Space Markets renting / buying / constructing / space DiPasquale, D. & Wheaton, W.C. (1992): The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association V20, 1,
12 Statistical Modelling of Value
13 info is in the residuals analyzing variance-covariance matrix Statistical Modelling Challenges & Approaches
14 Real Estate Market fundamentals spatio-temporal variation of characteristics & price ask price sale price EUROSTAT (Hg.) (2012): Technical manual on OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING for Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (v.2.0). Ball, Michael (2012): RICS European Housing Review RICS. London.
15 Infrastructure f. data / processes / services How much cooperation does the market accept? Mass valuation to facilitate better decision making: Socio-economic / Spatial planning processes Property related taxation / subsidies Parameters to support, but NOT to challenge individual valuation Willingness Politics Market observations & Mass valuation to reveal fundamental facts & market trends for a functioning /bubble-free real estate market for a transparent decision making within Gov. - Business - Citizens data on market fundamentals : NL, SWE, SLO, PL, CZ data on value-determining parameters FR, G: Land-value-maps data on public rights & restrictions CH: ÖREB Infrastruktur
16 Infrastructure f. data / processes / services Does C+LR see the opportunity??? C+LR: opportunity to contribute essential parameters & processes site characteristics of land & building Provide private & public property rights Ensure spatiotemporal labeling of data clearly specified metadata (level of completeness, granularity,...) Value-determining parameters: efficient acquisition / multiple use -Web- / Data-Mining / Cooperation (G-B-C) Willingness Technical coop.
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