UDIA (WA) Research Breakfast. Great expectations: The market in 2013

Transcription

1 (WA) Research Breakfast Great expectations: The market in 2013

2 Presentation Overview Established property market activity Perth land development activity Housing construction activity What to expect in 2013

3 Property Market Rebounding property confidence...

4 Property Market 2012 Overview... FIRST HOME BUYER MOMENTUM DROVE RECOVERY FHOGs paid in 2012 increased 28 per cent FHBs absorbed significant levels of existing stock FHBs spending more on their first property Residential listings Average selling days Rental vacancy rate Dec 12 Dec 11 Change 9,240 13,510 Down 31% Down 19.5% 1.9% 2.3% Down 0.4 pts Median rent $450 $400 Up 12.5% Median house price $495,000 $470,000 Up 5.3% Source: REIWA

5 Property Market Property prices... THE PRICE EFFECT Prices and housing turnover are positively correlated Perth the standout house price performer in Perth House Sales Perth House Prices Source: ABS

6 Property Market What s selling... THE RETURNING MIDDLE MARKET $400,000 to $600,000 and $600,001 to $800,000 house sales increase in second half of Detached House Sales Perth (inc. Peel) Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Source: Landgate, WA Up to $400,000 $400,001 to $600,000 $600,001 to $800,000 More than $800,000

7 Property Market Where are people buying... HOUSE SALES INCREASE THROUGHOUT PERTH Even though just under half of Perth s population resides in the Central Metro Region, it only accounts for 18 per cent of detached house sales Detached House Sales Perth (inc. Peel) Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Central Metro North-West Metro South-West Metro South-East Metro North-East Metro Peel Source: Landgate, WA

8 Residential Property Market Where are people buying BUT REGIONAL WA MIXED Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Source: Landgate, WA South West Goldfields Esperance Wheatbelt Mid West Great Southern Pilbara Kimberley

9 Property Market Relationship with new dwelling demand... Detached House Sales - Perth What does this mean for new dwelling demand? Strong relationship between established and new property market activity Established House Sales Lot Sales Index Source: ABS, WA

10 Land Market Overview... LOT SALES AT SIX YEAR HIGH Sales up 23.4 per cent in December quarter Sales increase in two thirds of developments 3,500 Number of Lots Sold Perth (inc. Peel) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Number of Lots Sold Average Source: WA

11 Land Market Who s buying... FIRST HOME BUYERS BUY NEW FHBs approx. 38 per cent of new dwelling demand One in three FHBs buy new; up from pre-gfc average of 20 per cent Top FHB locations: Baldivis; Ellenbrook; and Butler FHOG Applications - New Dwellings FHOG Boost Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Source: Office of State Revenue WA Up 125%

12 Land Market LAND PRICES FLAT FOR FIVE YEARS Average lot price ($222,000) 43 per cent below peak Lot prices , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Source: WA

13 Land Market...BECAUSE OF DEMAND FOR SUB-$200,000 LOTS Lot prices % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Up to $200,000 $200,000 - $280,000 $280,000 plus Source: WA

14 Land Market What is selling......and STRONGER DEMAND FOR SMALLER LOTS Median lot size (419m 2 ) declined 25 per cent since 05/06 37 per cent of new vacant lots sold in 2011 were less than 400m 2 Source: WAPC

15 Land Market What is selling... HOW SMALL CAN LOTS GO? LGA Proportion of Lots less than 400m 2 Median Lot Size City of Wanneroo 48.8% 412m 2 City of Cockburn 46.4% 441m 2 Town of Kwinana 41.5% 441m 2 City of Armadale 37.9% 432m 2 City of Joondalup 37.6% 455m 2 City of Swan 32.6% 476m 2 City of Gosnells 32.4% 500m 2 City of Rockingham 22.5% 497m 2 Shire of Serpentine- Jarrahdale 10.6% 495m 2 Source: WA, Landgate

16 Land Market Where are people buying... SALES UP ACROSS THE BOARD Sales south of the river increased strongest in the December quarter Lot Sales per quarter FHOG Boost North-West Metro North-East Metro South-East Metro South-West Metro 100 Peel 0 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Source: WA

17 Land Market North of the river... NORTH METRO Sales Activity Local Authority Change in Lot Sales* Average Monthly Sales per Development Average Price Share of Metro Sales City of Wanneroo Up 99% 16.0 $218, % City of Joondalup Up 45% 6.1 $450, % City of Swan Up 79% 13.2 $229, % Lot Availability Local Authority Lots on the Market (Months) Change in Stock Levels (YoY) City of Wanneroo 1.7 Down 15% City of Joondalup 3.7 Down 52% City of Swan 1.4 Down 29% *Sales and prices relate to new vacant land sales over the last six months of 2012 compared to the last six months of Lots on the market as at 31 December, (Source: WA)

18 Land Market HOT SPOTS North of the river... Suburb/ Area House Approvals (Jul to Dec 12) Trend Median Land Price Settled Vacant Land Sales (2012) Ellenbrook 740 Up 47.4% $216, Yanchep/ Alkimos 678 Up 46.8% $208, Butler 592 Up 17.9% $180, Landsdale 402 Up 15.5% $294, Banksia Grove 352 Up 46.7% $198, Source: WA, ABS, Landgate

19 Land Market South of the river... SOUTH METRO Sales Activity Local Authority Change in Lot Sales* Average Monthly Sales per Development Average Price Share of Metro Sales City of Armadale Up 145% 12.6 $239, % Shire of Serpentine- Jarrahdale Down 2% 6.1 $188, % City of Cockburn Up 43% 4.4 $311, % Town of Kwinana Up 90% 21.9 $181, % City of Rockingham Up 135% 8.7 $183, % Lot Availability Local Authority Lots on the Market (Months) Change in Stock Levels City of Armadale 1.0 Up 12% Shire of Serpentine-Jarrahdale 2.3 Down 40% City of Cockburn 1.3 Down 22% Town of Kwinana 2.5 Up 179% City of Rockingham 2.4 Down 21%

20 Land Market South of the river... HOT SPOTS Suburb/ Area House Approvals (Jul to Dec 12) Trend Median Land Price Settled Vacant Land Sales (2012) Baldivis 996 Up 25.1% $182, Harrisdale/ Piara Waters Southern River Forrestfield/ Wattle Grove Coogee/ Beeliar Success/ Hammond Park Down 3.9% Down 16.3% $239, $261, Up 31.5% $239, Up 162% $525,000/ $250, Up 97.1% $262, Source: WA, ABS, Landgate

21 Land Market Peel and South West... MANDURAH ON THE MOVE Sales Activity Local Authority Change in Lot Sales* Average Monthly Sales per Development Average Price Mandurah and Peel Up 70% 4.9 $189,000 South West Up 22% 3.0 $183,000 Great Southern Up 108% 0.6 $179,000 Lot Availability Local Authority Lots on the Market (Months) Change in Stock Levels Mandurah and Peel 3.6 Down 36% South West 9.1 Down 22% Great Southern 53.6 Down 23%

22 Residential Land Market Outlook What to expect in CONSTRUCTION TIMEFRAMES TO WIDEN Potential shortages of capital equipment and skilled labour Land sales take 6 to 18 months to flow through to housing construction Dwelling approvals on track to reach 23,000 in 2012/13; 22 per cent more than 2011/12 Detached House Approvals 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Outer Metro Regions Regional WA Central Metro Source: WA, ABS

23 Perth Land Market Outlook What to expect in Potential land shortages Potential shortage of 600 lots in Perth over the next six months; equivalent to three weeks of sales Swan (C) Armadale (C) Kwinana (T) Cockburn (C) Wanneroo (C) Joondalup (C) Forecast Land Availability 6-mth Lot Construction Activity Stock on the Market Rockingham (C) Serpentine Jarrahdale (S) Mandurah (C) # of Lots Source: WA

24 Perth Land Market Outlook What to expect in Food for thought What is the chance of strong land price growth returning to 2003 to 2006 levels? What effect will declining mining investment and labour demand have on population growth and household formation rates in Perth?