REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW 1 st Half of 2015

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1 REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW 1 st Half of 2015 With Comparisons to the 2 nd Half of 2014 September 4, 2015 Prepared for: First Bank of Wyoming Prepared by: Ken Markert, AICP MMI Planning 2319 Davidson Ave. Cody, WY markert@mmiplanning.com

2 REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW This report provides a general overview of recent trends in the real estate markets in two geographic areas, Park County and northern Big Horn County 1. This overview is based on the Northwest Wyoming Board of Realtors database of real estate transactions. The overview presents recent real estate trends by comparing real estate sales data for the first half of 2015 (1 st and 2 nd quarters and referred to throughout this report as the current period ) and the second half of 2014 (3 rd and 4 th quarters and referred to as the previous period ). The overview analyses several different market segments defined as follows: Residential under 35 acres properties with an existing residence on a subdivided lot or unsubdivided parcel, in-town or out-of-town, where total acreage is less than 35 acres. Residential over 35 acres properties with an existing residence on a subdivided lot or unsubdivided parcel, in-town or out-of-town, where total acreage is 35 acres and larger. Farm/Ranch over 35 acres agricultural land of at least 35 acres and may include residential and other buildings or may have no buildings; potential land uses include residential and agricultural with smaller acreages more likely to be used for primarily for residential purposes. Multi-family multifamily housing units, including duplexes. Lots/Land under 35 acres land without major buildings including in-town and out-oftown subdivision lots; potential land uses are not limited and may include residential, agricultural and other uses, where the total acreage is less than 35 acres. Lots that are marketed as commercial sites are excluded but are included in the commercial market segment. Lots/Land over 35 acres land without major buildings of at least 35 acres in size; potential land uses are not limited and may include residential, agricultural and other uses. Commercial commercial properties generally with commercial buildings; may include properties where the business is sold along with the real estate. The Board of Realtors database is aggregated for confidentiality reasons; however it does allow for the comparison of the data on the basis of: Number of sales Value of all sales Average value of sales Median value of sales Average time on the market 1 Northern Big Horn County includes the towns of Byron, Cowley, Deaver, Frannie, and Lovell as well as the rural area near these towns.

3 Detailed results for each geographic area and market segment are presented in the following pages. In addition, this report includes a snap shot of the Multiple Listing Service listings for each of the market segments in each county on August 26, The report also presents a more detailed analysis of two Park County market segments. The Residential under 35 acres segment and the Lots/land under 35 acres segment are each divided up into four divisions to provide more differentiation within these two broadly-defined segments: Residential in Cody Residential in Powell Residential Under 35 Acres Residential outside Cody or Powell, lot size 0 to 5 acres Residential outside Cody or Powell, lot size 5 to 35 acres Lots/Land in Cody Lots/Land in Powell Lots/Land Under 35 Acres Lots/Land outside Cody or Powell, lot size 0 to 5 acres Lots/Land outside Cody or Powell, lot size 5 to 35 acres The idea behind these divisions is that the two Park County market segments are quite broad, both in terms of geography and lot sizes. By breaking the segments down, we can track the differences between the Cody and Powell markets. Furthermore, with regard to the rural markets outside the cities, it will be useful to have a more differentiation in the lot size parameter (0-5 acres, 5-35 acre, and 35+ acres instead of under 35 and over 35 acres). The Cody and Powell divisions are defined as properties within the city limits of each. The remaining Rural market includes all properties outside Cody and Powell (even if in close to these cities) as well as properties in smaller settlements such as Meeteetse, Ralston, and Wapiti. The analysis results are reported for both the original broad market segment as well as for the divisions.

4 PARK COUNTY OVERVIEW The Park County real estate market held steady in terms of sales activity and sales value in the first half of 2015, with levels nearly the same as in the second half of The total number of sales rose by just one sale (or 0.4% percent) and total value of all sales decreased slightly (down -0.2 percent). FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Total number of sales % Total value of sales $55,878,450 $56,004, % Changes in total number of sales are more pronounced in individual market segments (see table below). The largest market segment, Residential under 35 acres, had a modest decline in the number of sales. The next largest market segment, Lots/Land under 35 acres, had had a strong increase of 32.3% (10 more sales) over the previous period. All other market segments had relatively few sales in either period, which makes for large percentage changes (that are probably not significant). Total Number of Sales by Market Segment FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Residential under 35 acres % Residential over 35 acres % Farm/Ranch over 35 acres % Multi-family % Lots/Land under 35 acres % Lots/Land over 35 acres % Commercial % Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-1

5 In terms of total dollar value of sales within each segment, most market segments showed strong gains compared to the second half of The only segments with a lesser value of sales were the Multi-family and Commercial segments. All categories of lot and land sales increased strongly. In addition, strong increases are also evident in the Farm/Ranch segment as well as both of the Lots/Land segments (over and under 35 acres). The only segments to exhibit a decrease in value are the two Residential segments (over and under 35 acres). Again, the most significant changes are those in the two largest market segments, Residential under 35 acres, which saw a modest 5.5% decline, and lots/land under 35 acres, which had a strong increase of 39.7% Total Value of Sales by Market Segment FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Residential under 35 acres $45,056,450 $47,691, % Residential over 35 acres $1,233,000 $2,415, % Farm/Ranch over 35 acres $2,665,000 $803, % Multi-family $850,000 $403, % Lots/Land under 35 acres $3,684,700 $2,637, % Lots/Land over 35 acres $1,770,000 $1,414, % Commercial $1,469,300 $640, % Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-2

6 Residential Under 35 Acres This is the largest market segment with 193 of the 255 sales or 76 percent of all sales. Market indicators are all suggestive of a stabilizing market. The number of sales and total value of all sales declined by modest amounts (down 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively) while average and median value of sales showed even less change (down -1.1% and up 2.7%, respectively). In addition, average time on the market nearly held steady, just increasing by 10 days. Overall, the market indicators suggest the market is little change compared to the second half of RESIDENTIAL UNDER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $45,056,450 $47,691, % Average value of sales $233,453 $236, % Median value of sales $206,000 $200, % Average time on market (days) % $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 Park County - Average & Median Sales Price "Residential under 35 acres" Market Segment $233,453 AVERAGE $236,095 $206,000 MEDIAN $200,500 FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-3

7 Residential Market Segment Divisions Sales data for the four divisions broken out of the all-inclusive Residential under 35 acres segment are presented below for the first half of SALES Residential in Cody Residential in Powell Rural Residential 0-5 acres Rural Residential 5-35 acres Number of sales Value of all sales $18,205,400 $8,390,600 $9,290,300 $9,170,150 Average Value $222,017 $167,812 $258,064 $366,806 Median Value $222,450 $164,000 $234,500 $355,000 Average time on Market (Days) In terms of number of sales, the Cody division had the most with 82 sales followed by Powell with 50. The two rural residential divisions have had very little sales activity in 2014, but showed much renewed sales activity in the past six months. 140 Residential Divisions - Number of Sales Cody Powell Rural 0-5 Rural FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-4

8 Regarding sale prices, the Rural Residential 5 to 35 acres division had the highest prices while the Rural Residential 0-5 acres segment had the next highest prices, a significant change over conditions in the second half of $400,000 Residential Divisions - Median Sales Prices $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $222,450 $164,000 $234,500 $355,000 $219,900 $182,000 $102,500 $142,500 Cody Powell Rural 0-5 Rural 5-35 $50,000 FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 The following table shows the amount of change between the first half of 2015 figures (table on previous page) and the second half of 2014: Residential in Cody Residential in Powell Rural Residential 0-5 acres Rural Residential 5-35 acres Change % Δ Change % Δ Change % Δ Change % Δ Number of sales % % % % Value of all sales -$14,633,461-45% -$5,971,799-42% $9,085, % $8,885, % Average price -$32,548-13% -$40,339-19% $155, % $224, % Median price $2,550 1% -$18,000-10% $132, % $212, % Average time on Market (Days) -3-2% % % % Changes in all Cody market indicators suggest a slowing market compared to the second half of last year. The number of sales decreased by 36% and the value of all sales was down 45% while average price declined by 13%. Median price and average time on the market essentially held steady (up 1% and down 2%, respectively). Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-5

9 The Powell residential market division showed even stronger signs of cooling off. All market indicators showed double-digit declines. The only positive note was that time on the market shortened by 50 days. As the Cody and Powell markets slowed, the two rural residential divisions heated up, posting very large increases in number of sales, value of all sales, average price, and median price. This strong surge of activity was accompanied by increases in the average time on the market (which may reflect the sale of properties that have been listed for a long time prior to sale). Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-6

10 Residential Over 35 Acres This market segment is small with only 12 sales reported in the past 12 months. Trends for the first half of 2015 are mixed. The number of sales and total value of sales decreased while average sales price and median sales price increased. The average time on the market increased by 54 days. With the small number of sales reported, these trends may not be significant. RESIDENTIAL OVER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $1,233,000 $2,415, % Average value of sales $308,250 $301, % Median value of sales $354,500 $305, % Average time on market (days) % $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Park County - Average & Median Sales Price "Residential Over 35 Acres" Market Segment $308,250 $354,500 $301,969 $305,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 $100,000 $50,000 AVERAGE MEDIAN Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-7

11 Farm/Ranch Over 35 Acres This segment is another small one with only five sales reported in the past 12 months. Trends appear strongly positive but are probably not significant due to the small number of sales involved. FARM/RANCH OVER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $2,665,000 $803, % Average value of sales $888,333 $401, % Median value of sales $535,000 $401, % Average time on market (days) % $450,000 $400,000 Park County - Average & Median Sales Price "Farm/Ranch over 35 acres" Market Segment $401,750 $401,750 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $209,500 $209,500 SECOND HALF 2014 FIRST HALF 2014 AVERAGE MEDIAN Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-8

12 Multi-family This market segment has had only five reported sales in the past 12 months. All indicators suggest a stronger market. However, with this small number of sales the apparent trends are probably not significant. MULTI-FAMILY FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $850,000 $403, % Average value of sales $283,333 $201, % Median value of sales $300,000 $201, % Average time on market (days) % $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Park County - Average & Median Sales Value "Multi-Family" Market Segment $283,333 $300,000 $201,500 $201,500 FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 $50,000 AVERAGE MEDIAN Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-9

13 Lots/Land Under 35 Acres This market segment is the second largest in terms of volume, with 16 percent of all sales. Most indicators in this market segment suggest a strengthening market. The number of sales, total value of all sales, average sale price, and median sale price all increased. Average time on the market is quite long and increased further to 748 days. It is possible that this reflects some higher priced lots that have sat on the market for years and have finally sold. LOTS/LAND UNDER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $3,684,700 $2,637, % Average value of sales $89,871 $85, % Median value of sales $70,000 $60, % Average time on market (days) % $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Park County - Average & Median Sales Price "Lots/Land Under 35 Acres" Market Segment $89,871 AVERAGE $85,077 $70,000 MEDIAN $60,000 FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-10

14 Lot/Land Divisions Sales data for the four divisions broken out of the all-inclusive Lots/land under 35 acres segment are presented below for the first half of 2015: SALES Lots/Land in Cody Lots/Land in Powell Rural lots/land 0-5 acres Rural lots/land 5-35 acres Number Total Value $896,900 $195,000 $1,028,500 $1,564,300 Average Value $112,113 $97,500 $68,567 $97,769 Median Value $69,200 $97,500 $67,500 $76,950 Average time on Market (Days) Cody had 8 lot sales in the first half of 2015, down from 18 in the previous reporting period. Powell had only 2 lot sales in the first half of this year, down from 10. The two rural lot divisions showed a strong resurgence after a two-year spell with very few sales (only 15 sales in both divisions, ) Lots/Land Divisions - Number of Sales Cody Powell Rural 0-5 Rural FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 Average time on the market for all division has been and remains quite long. In Cody, it is currently at about 3 years. In Powell, average time on the market has climbed to 3.5 years. The Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-11

15 5-35 acre Rural Lots/Land division is nearly two years. The shortest time on the market is in the 0-5 acre Rural Lots/Land division at 395 days. With regard to prices, the median price rose across the board with all divisions showing higher sale prices in the first half of Powell market division showed the highest median price (but only two sales, so this does not indicate a broad market trend). $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 Lots/Land Divisions - Median Sales Prices $69,200 $97,500 $67,500 $76,950 $63,500 $56,050 $27,000 Cody Powell Rural 0-5 Rural 5-35 $20,000 FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 The following table shows the amount of change between the first half of 2015 figures (table on previous page) and the second half of 2014: Lots/Land in Cody Lots/Land in Powell Rural lots/land 0-5 acres Rural lots/land 5-35 acres Change % Δ Change % Δ Change % Δ Change % Δ Number % -8-80% 15 N/A % Total Value -$1,030,388-53% -$419,600-68% $1,028,500 N/A $1,468, % Average Value $5,041 5% $36,040 59% $68,567 N/A $65, % Median Value $5,700 9% $41,450 74% $67,500 N/A $49, % Average time on Market (Days) % 1, % 395 N/A % Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-12

16 Market indicators for lots in the Cody division are mixed. The total value of sales and average sale price both increased. However, the number of sales and the median price both declined and average time on the market, which was already quite long, increased by 728 days. The lot/land market in the Powell division showed a similar pattern. However, there were only two sales in the first half of the year and these trends are not a good indicator of current market conditions. The two rural divisions had too few sales in the second half of 2014 for meaningful comparison to the first half of However, it is notable and significant that number of sales and total value of sales have strongly increased over the previous period. Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-13

17 Lots/Land Over 35 Acres This segment is a small segment of the market, with 11 sales in the past 12 months. Market indicators are mixed. The number of sales fell (by one) while the total value of sales and average sale price increased. Median sale price fell sharply. Average time on the market shortened by a modest amount. The small number of sales involved means that these trends should be viewed with caution as a few atypical sales could skew the results. LOTS/LAND OVER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $1,770,000 $1,414, % Average value of sales $354,000 $235, % Median value of sales $90,000 $185, % Average time on market (days) % $400,000 $350,000 Park County - Average & Median Sales Price "Lots/Land Over 35 Acres" Market Segment $354,000 $300,000 $250,000 $235,667 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $90,000 $185,000 FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 AVERAGE MEDIAN Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-14

18 Commercial Commercial market segment indictors point to a strengthening market. All indicators improved over in the first half of However, small number of sales (9 in the past 12 months) make it is difficult to be sure that these trends are significant. COMMERCIAL FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $1,469,300 $640, % Average value of sales $244,883 $213, % Median value of sales $241,950 $120, % Average time on market (days) % $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Park County - Average & Median Sales Value "Commercial" Market Segment $244,883 $241,950 $213,333 $150,000 $100,000 $120,000 FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 $50,000 AVERAGE MEDIAN Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-15

19 LONGER TERM TRENDS One can compare the previous editions of this Real Estate Market Overview with the current report to discern longer-term trends. Consistent trends over multiple years in the largest market segments reveal the most significant findings. Such trends are useful in representing and understanding what is happening in the local real estate market. In the largest market segment, Residential under 35 acres, the average sale price reached an all-time high in the last reporting period and has retreated only slightly since then. Median sale price has reached all-time high in the current period. Over the past few years, prices have recovered from the Great Recession levels of 2009 and have been sustained at new, higher levels. This is particularly significant because sales in this market segment comprise 76% of all reported sales. Park County - Sales Price Trends "Residential under 35 acres" $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $192,613 $171,500 $219,788 $190,000 $204,053 $173,750 $229,656 $215,110 $224,047 $226,170 $204,325 $199,493 $205,000 $193,000 $236,095 $233,453 $206,000 $200,500 Average Median $100, st half nd half st half nd half st half nd half st half nd half st half Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-16

20 The second largest market segment "Lots/Land under 35 acres" has experience more dramatic sales price fluctuations since the 2009 and these properties tend to remain on the market for much longer than they did pre Current prices have recovered significantly from Recession price levels, but they have not quite reached the historic highs of (when average price peaked at $92,477 and median reached $77,500). However, the price recovery has been sustained, especially in the past 3 years. $100,000 $80,000 $63,707 Park County - Sales Price Trends "Lot/Land under 35 acres" $85,823 $81,345 $79,191 $89,871 $85,077 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $44,583 $33,750 $61,435 $45,950 $44,323 $53,552 $37,897 $56,000 $63,000 $66,500 $70,000 $60,000 Average Median st half nd half st half nd half st half nd half st half nd half st half Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-17

21 SNAP SHOT RESULTS This portion of the report includes a snap shot of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) listings for each of the market segments and division in Park County. The snap shot summarizes the number and value of listings as they appeared on the Board of Realtor s Website on August 26, PARK COUNTY 8/26/2015 SNAP SHOT Market Segment Count Total Average Median Residential under 35 acres 308 $103,440,494 $335,846 $301,519 Residential - Cody 99 $32,283,995 $326,101 $269,000 Residential - Powell 60 $11,018,399 $183,640 $177,450 Residential - Rural 0-5 Acres 85 $28,975,900 $340,893 $329,000 Residential - Rural 5-35 Acres 65 $31,162,200 $479,418 $425,000 Residential over 35 acres 25 $32,906,700 $1,316,268 $1,095,000 Farm/Ranch over 35 acres 17 $24,183,900 $1,422,582 $1,200,000 Multi-family 6 $1,965,900 $327,650 $362,000 Lots/Land under 35 acres ,756,465 $143,002 $66,991 Lots/Land - Cody 65 $5,531,695 $85,103 $65,900 Lots/Land - Powell 1 $51,500 $51,500 Lots/Land - Rural < 5 acres 80 $6,278,210 $78,478 $69,500 Lots/Land - Rural 5-35 acres 86 $13,160,700 $153,031 $113,000 Lots/Land over 35 acres 60 $16,734,360 $278,906 $172,500 Commercial 56 $25,756,574 $459,939 $289,950 These data represent properties listed for sale on the Website. The listing does not include all properties for sale in Park County as not all listings are listed with the MLS. Prices shown are offering prices not sale prices and will tend to be higher than sale prices. In addition, among MLS listings, the bargain priced properties will move more quickly and leave the premium priced properties behind this may bias the snap shot data towards higher prices. The snapshot methodology does not account for or compensate for seasonal variations in the real estate market. The time of year when the snapshot is conducted may have an influence on the results. For these reasons, the snap shot data are not expected to match the sales data. However, the data sets can be compared to discern trends and patterns. Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-18

22 The next table compares the snapshot data to sales data. In nearly all market segments and divisions, the median offering price was greater than the median sales price. One notable exception is in the Lots/Land under 35 acres, the second largest division, where offering price is about $3,000 below the median sale price. In contrast, the largest market segment, Residential under 35 acres, has a median offering price that is about $96,000 or 46% higher than the median sale price. PARK COUNTY DATA SET COMPARISON Market Segment August 2015 Offering Price Median First Half of 2015 Sale Price Median Residential under 35 acres $301,519 $206,000 Residential - Cody $269,000 $222,450 Residential - Powell $177,450 $164,000 Residential - Rural 0-5 acres $329,000 $234,500 Residential - Rural 5-35 acres $425,000 $355,000 Residential over 35 acres $1,095,000 $354,500 Farm/Ranch over 35 acres $1,200,000 $535,000 Multi-family $362,000 $300,000 Lots/Land under 35 acres $66,991 $70,000 Lots/Land - Cody $65,900 $69,200 Lots/Land - Powell N/A $97,500 Lots/Land - Rural < 5 acres $69,500 $67,500 Lots/Land - Rural 5-35 acres $113,000 $76,950 Lots/Land over 35 acres $172,500 $90,000 Commercial $289,950 $241,950 Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-19

23 Comparing historical snap shot data sets gives a sense of the inventory in the larger market segments. The number of listing in the two largest market segments (Residential under 35 acres and Lots/Land under 35 acres) increased since six months ago. Overall, the number of listing in both segments has rebounded from the low levels seen in February The current inventory of properties in the Residential under 35 acres segment (308 listings) represents 78 percent of reported sales over the past 12 month (395 sales) or 9 months worth of inventory. The current inventory of "Lots/Land under 35 acres" (292) is four times the number of reported sales over the past 12 month (72 sales) indicating a possible oversupply. Listings in Snapshot Data Sets, Number of Listings Residential under 35 acres Feb 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2012 Aug 2012 Feb 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2014 Sept 2014 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Lots/Land under 35 acres Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-20

24 Tracking median offering price over gives an indication of how sellers have responded to market conditions. Even as sale prices fell early in the decade, asking prices showed little change--until 2013, when seller relented and asking price dropped significantly for both residential properties and lots/land. Since then, the asking price for Residential under 35 acres properties has tended to increase. Asking prices for lots, on the other hand, have declined for the past two reporting periods. $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Median Offering Prices from Snapshot Data Sets, $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Residential under 35 acres Lots/Land under 35 acres $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Feb 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2012 Aug 2012 Feb 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2014 Sept 2014 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Park County Real Estate Market Overview Page P-21

25 NORTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY OVERVIEW Reported real estate activity in northern Big Horn County slowed in the first half of 2015 from the brisk pace seen in the previous reporting period. The total number of sales fell by 53% while total value of sales dropped by 52%. Total Number and Total Value of Sales FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Total number of sales % Total value of sales $1,932,200 $4,066,400-52% It should be noted at the outset that there are generally relatively small sales volumes in the Northern Big Horn County market. In this situation, many apparent trends may not be significant as a few atypical sales can skew the results. The largest market segment, "Residential under 35 acres," had just half the number of sales that occurred in the second half of The second half of 2014 was unusually strong in terms of sales. The current number of sales (14) is still relatively strong for this market segment. Within the other market segments, there were few or no sales in this or the prior reporting period and no meaningful trends can be discerned in such cases. Total Number of Sales by Market Segment FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Residential under 35 acres % Residential over 35 acres 0 0 N/A Farm/Ranch over 35 acres 0 0 N/A Multi-family 0 0 N/A Lots/Land under 35 acres % Lots/Land over 35 acres % Commercial % Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-1

26 In terms of total value within each segment, the Residential under 35 acres segment had a 46% decline the value of sales. All other market segments had either no sales or too few sales to make meaningful comparisons between the two halves of the year. Total Value of Sales by Market Segment FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Residential under 35 acres $1,912,200 $3,549,600-46% Residential over 35 acres N/A N/A Farm/Ranch over 35 acres N/A N/A Multi-family N/A N/A Lots/Land under 35 acres $20,000 $76,000-74% Lots/Land over 35 acres N/A $75,800 N/A Commercial N/A $365,000 N/A Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-2

27 Residential Under 35 Acres This market segment was the largest in terms of sales volume with 93 percent of all sales in the first half of While the number of sales is down, prices have seen a modest increase and time on the market shortened by a few days. This suggests that while there are fewer sales, this market segment is still fairly strong. RESIDENTIAL UNDER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $1,912,200 $3,549,600-46% Average value of sales $136,586 $ 126,771 8% Median value of sales $137,500 $ 125,000 10% Average time on market (days) % North Big Horn County - Average & Median Sales Price "Residential under 35 acres" Market Segment $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $126,771 $125,000 $113,583 $109,000 $80,000 $60,000 SECOND HALF 2014 FIRST HALF 2014 $40,000 $20,000 Average Median Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-3

28 Residential over 35 acres This segment had no reported sales in either half of No trends can be discerned in this case. RESIDENTIAL OVER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales 0 0 N/A Value of all sales N/A N/A N/A Average value of sales N/A N/A N/A Median value of sales N/A N/A N/A Average time on market (days) N/A N/A N/A Farm/Ranch over 35 acres This segment had no sales reported in the second half of No trends can be discerned in this case. FARM/RANCH OVER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales 0 1 N/A Value of all sales N/A $ 360,000 N/A Average value of sales N/A $ 360,000 N/A Median value of sales N/A $ 360,000 N/A Average time on market (days) N/A 73 N/A Multi-family There were no sales in either half of No trends can be discerned in this case. MULTI-FAMILY FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales 0 0 N/A Value of all sales N/A N/A N/A Average value of sales N/A N/A N/A Median value of sales N/A N/A N/A Average time on market (days) N/A N/A N/A Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-4

29 Lots/Land under 35 acres There were only three reported sales for this market segment over the past 12 months. No significant trends can be discerned in this case. LOTS/LAND UNDER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $ 76,000 $35, % Average value of sales $ 38,000 $35,000 9% Median value of sales $ 38,000 $35,000 9% Average time on market (days) % Lots/Land over 35 acres There were only two reported sales for this market segment in the past 12 months. No significant trends can be discerned in this case. LOTS/LAND OVER 35 ACRES FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales 1 1 0% Value of all sales $75,800 $113,000-33% Average value of sales $75,800 $113,000-33% Median value of sales $75,800 $113,000-33% Average time on market (days) % Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-5

30 Commercial There were three sales in the past 12 months. Due to the small number of sales involve, no significant trends can be discerned in this case. COMMERCIAL FIRST HALF 2015 SECOND HALF 2014 % CHANGE Number of sales % Value of all sales $365,000 $53, % Average value of sales $365,000 $26,500 1,277% Median value of sales $365,000 $26,500 1,277% Average time on market (days) % Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-6

31 LONGER TERM TRENDS One can compare the previous editions of this Real Estate Market Overview with the current report to discern longer-term trends since Consistent trends over multiple years in the largest market segments reveal the most significant findings. Such trends are useful in representing and understanding what is happening in the local real estate market. In the largest market segment, Residential under 35 acres, sale prices generally remained flat since Average sale price has increased in most reporting periods. But there have also been two significant price declines that have left prices at about the same level now as they were in early The median price trend has also had ups and downs within a limited range. These trends should be viewed with some caution due to the small number of sales involved. However, it does appear that prices are relatively stable over the long run (2 years or more) and it is possible that much of the period-to-period price variation is due to the small number of sales involved rather than major changes in market conditions. $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Northern Big Horn County - Sales Price Trends "Residential under 35 acres" st half nd half st half nd half st half Average Median nd half st half nd half st half Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-7

32 The market segment, "Lots/Land under 35 acres", has had even fewer sales over the years than the "Residential under 35 acres" segment discussed above. Because of the small number of sales, averaging about 6-7 sales per year and only 3 sales in the past 12 months, the observed trends are likely not to be significant. In addition, trends are difficult to discern in this segment due to apparent volatility in sale prices. Northern Big Horn County - Sales Price Trends "Lots/Land under 35 acres" $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $32,750 $32,750 $17,500 $17,500 $29,750 $29,750 $38,300 $24,833 $25,500 $25,000 $12,000 Average $12,500 Median $35,000 $35,000 $38,000 $38,000 $20,000 $20, st half nd half st half nd half st half nd half st half nd half st half Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-8

33 SNAP SHOT RESULTS This portion of the report includes a snap shot of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) listings for each of the market segments in northern Big Horn County. The snap shot summarizes the number and value of listings as they appeared on the Board of Realtor s Website on August 26, NORTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY 8/26/2015 SNAPSHOT Market Segment Count Total Average Median Residential under 35 acres 38 $6,716,500 $176,750 $134,750 Residential over 35 acres 3 $790,500 $263,500 $131,500 Farm/Ranch over 35 acres 2 $1,598,900 $799,450 $799,450 Multi-family 0 Lots/Land under 35 acres 6 $327,700 $54,617 $27,950 Lots/Land over 35 acres 4 $601,300 $150,325 $117,500 Commercial 3 $941,000 $313,667 $191,000 These data represent properties listed for sale on the Website. The listing does not include all properties for sale in northern Big Horn County as not all listings are listed with the MLS. Prices shown are offering prices not sale prices and will tend to be higher than sale prices. In addition, among MLS listings, the bargain priced properties will move more quickly and leave the premium priced properties behind this may bias the snap shot data towards higher prices. The snapshot methodology does not account for or compensate for seasonal variations in the real estate market. The time of year when the snapshot is conducted may have an influence on the results. For these reasons, the snap shot data are not expected to match sales data. However, the data sets can be compared to discern trends and patterns. In the next table, the snapshot offering prices are compared to the reported sales data. The relatively large Residential under 35 acres market segment had 14 actual sales and 38 snapshot listings. In this segment, median listing price was $2,750 less than the median sale price. In all the other market segments there are so few listings and reported sales that comparisons between listing and sales prices are probably not very meaningful. Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-9

34 NORTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY DATA SET COMPARISON Market Segment August 2015 Offering Price Median First Half of 2015 Sale Price Median Residential under 35 acres $134,750 $137,500 Residential over 35 acres $131,500 N/A Farm/Ranch over 35 acres $799,450 N/A Multi-family N/A N/A Lots/Land under 35 acres $27,950 $20,000 Lots/Land over 35 acres $117,500 N/A Commercial $191,000 N/A Comparing historical snap shot data sets gives a sense of the inventory in the larger market segments. In the current period, the current number of listings (38) has rebounded from the low level seen six months ago (blue line in chart below). With 42 sales in this market segment over the past 12 months, these 16 listings represent only about 11 months worth of inventory. The number of available "Lots/Land under 35 acres" has steadily increased from March 2012 to February 2014 (red line in chart below) but has now steadily declined over the three reporting periods (18 months). This small inventory may be consistent with the few sales (3) that have occurred in the past 12 months. Listings in Snapshot Data Sets, Number of Listings Residential under 35 acres Feb 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2012 Aug 2012 Feb 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2014 Sept 2014 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Lots/Land under 35 acres Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-10

35 Tracking median offering price over gives an indication of how sellers have responded to market conditions. The median asking prices for the Residential under 35 acres has tended to remain stable, hovering between $120,000 and $135,000 for the past three years. The median asking price for lots smaller than 35 acres has been steadily increasing, particularly over the past two years. However, the price increases are generally quite small. Median Offering Prices from Snapshot Data Sets, $160,000 $50,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $80,000 $25,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Residential under 35 acres Lots/Land under 35 acres $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Feb 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2012 Aug 2012 Feb 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2014 Sept 2014 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Northern Big Horn County Real Estate Market Overview Page NBH-11