CENTRAL FLORIDA MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Transcription

1 DOWNTOWN TAMPA CENTRAL FLORIDA MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW DOWNTOWN ORLANDO JUNE 2015 Tampa Multifamily Team DARRON KATTAN Managing Director direct mobile ROBERT GOLDFINGER Managing Director direct mobile KEVIN KELLEHER Senior Director direct mobile ZACH AMES Investment Associate direct mobile Tampa Multifamily Support Team Multifamily Investment and Development Trends The multifamily sector continues to experience remarkably solid fundamentals due largely to consistently high occupancies, steady rent growth, a somewhat restrained development pipeline that is helping to prevent a significant supply and demand imbalance. A healthy debt market adds additional fuel to this fire. There is continued compression in cap rates for properties across virtually all markets in Florida as demand continues to outpace supply, and there is a lack of product for sale compared to the last two years. With limited supply available, both core and value-add opportunities continue to be highly sought after by institutional buyers, large private groups, and individual investors. There also remains a very attractive interest rate environment which should continue through the first half of The multifamily market has enjoyed remarkable health over the last few years due largely to a thriving Millennial population and its subsequent renewed interest in projects positioned close to urban cores, in addition to a very healthy debt market, a strong job market, and a restrained pace of new development. Millennials are poised to become the largest U.S. demographic this year, surpassing baby boomers. Last year, the nation s 75 million Millennials accounted for 32 percent of home sales, outpacing Generation X, according to the National Association of Realtors. Within the multifamily market, asking rents across Florida are above pre-recession levels and show no signs of abatement. Additionally, occupancy throughout Florida remains above 95% and the condo market is strengthening with converters active in the market once again looking for multifamily product to reposition as for-sale, which could further constrain supply. This shortage is due partly to changing demographics, the fact that 60,000 rental units were converted to condominiums in the last cycle and that the recession halted development for a number of years. Value-add properties are also recording strong activity. Investors seeking stronger returns on investment are acquiring older vintage properties and adding value through interior and exterior upgrades. Rents Resume Upward Movement, Led by Southeast Metros Nationally, average multifamily rents grew by $8 to $1,105 in April, according to Yardi Matrix s April 2015 survey. The 0.7% month-over-month increase came after an $11 decline in March, leaving the survey slightly lower than its all-time high of $1,108 in February. Rents grew 4.3% year-over-year nationally. Of the top 16 markets in year-over-year increases, 10 are located in the West and four (Jacksonville, Atlanta, Orlando and Miami) are located in the Southeast. For the Trailing 12 months ending April 2015, Southern markets Atlanta (4th), Miami (7th) and Orlando (8th) were among the top eight metros in rent growth. RENT GROWTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR AS OF APRIL 2015 Ryan Guerdan, Analyst Andi Nunley, Transaction Manager Lisa Rossetti, Marketing Manager

2 NATIONAL ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT JUNE 2015 DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE Apartment construction has been on the rise for the past several areas according to research compiled by the National Multi Housing Council and the National Apartment Association. Through the first quarter of 2015 nearly 50,000 units have come online, putting the market on pace to match or exceed last year s pace. Some 243,000 units are under construction and will come online either this year or next. The construction pipeline should remain robust for another few years, since more than 800,000 units are in some form of development, according to Yardi Matrix data. More than 300,000 units have approvals in place but have yet to break ground, while another 260,000 units are in the planning stage. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apartment Fundamentals Tampa Orlando Miami Florida # Renters # Apartments With vacancy rates already at or near historic lows in most markets across the country, and demand showing no sign of letting up, most of the supply should be absorbed without too much trouble for apartment owners. There are several reasons for this. One is the strong economy, as people get jobs they are able to form new households. This is especially true for the growing Echo Boomer generation, which means that the prime renter age 20 to 34-year old cohort is growing in numbers at the same time the job status of young adults is improving. According to recent data compiled within the Florida market, approximately 25,000 units are recently built or under construction with another 13,000 units planned in the South Florida metro area of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami- Dade Counties. The combined Tampa Bay, Orlando and Jacksonville markets are seeing 25,000 units recently completed or under construction with an additional 5,200 planned. The recent wave of condo construction poses a limited threat to apartment fundamentals and multifamily development is surging across Florida with many developers racing to satisfy pent-up demand created by the presence of stillsolid occupancy and rent growth fundamentals. CAPITAL MARKETS Very few investment products are as in demand at the moment as multifamily real estate. With bond yields so low and global economies struggling, U.S. real estate in general is a favored class among a wide range of investors, including institutions, public REITs and foreign investors. Among commercial real estate property sectors, multifamily is arguably the most in demand because of its long-term stability in performance metrics such as occupancy rates. 3-4% range, which has prompted institutions to forage for product in secondary markets and/or suburban areas near primary markets. Consequently, the price per unit is rising steadily outside primary markets. So far in 2015, the average price per unit is $126,320, up a whopping 24.2% from That s almost double the price per unit in the last trough in 2009 ($64,006). MULTIFAMILY CAP RATE TRENDS THROUGH 1ST QUARTER 2015 Investor demand has produced a steady rise in transactions. Multifamily property sales in the 88 markets covered by Yardi Matrix hit an all-time high in 2014 at $59.0 billion, topping the $50.8 billion sold in 2007, and up 17.6% from 2013 s total volume of $50.1 billion. The pace of sales has continued to rise through February, with $14.2 billion of properties changing hands. With demand for multifamily assets far outstripping the number of properties on the market, prices continue to rise. Class-A properties in core markets are trading at initial yields in the All research and data reported on this page compiled by Yardi Matrix, Trepp & Commercial Mortgage Alert

3 TAMPA BAY MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW JUNE 2015 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY & RENT GROWTH Approximately 13% of the Tampa Bay area s population lives in apartments. There are over 366,000 renters residing within 204,000 apartment homes in the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, and these renters make an economic contribution of $7.2 billion per year while supporting over 74,000 jobs. An improving local economy in Tampa helped drive significant new apartment construction in 2014 and the metro recorded a 10-year high in terms of new demand in There is significant infill apartment and condo development taking place in and around the Downtown St Petersburg and Downtown Tampa cores. While downtown areas can be challenging places to build apartments due to a constrained supply of land for new construction projects, the live-work-play lifestyle appealing to Millennials and urban dwellers has motived developers to get creative and find unique ways to build vertically with enhanced amenity packages. This allows developers to overcome land limitations while attracting renters seeking proximity to jobs, shopping, entertainment and transportation. Market YoY Job Growth (6Mo Moving Avg) Completions as % of Total Stock (Apr-15) Forecast Rent Growth (YE-15) Miami 3.7% 3.4% 7.5% Orlando 4.0% 2.8% 6.0% Tampa 2.8% 2.3% 5.5% 97.00% 96.00% 95.00% 94.00% 93.00% 92.00% 91.00% 90.00% 89.00% 88.00% Tampa MSA Occupancy Rates Source: Yardi Matrix SIGNIFICANT NEW CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (Partial List) Modera Prime St Petersburg 309 Units Developed by Mill Creek Residential Skyhouse Channelside - Downtown Tampa 23 Stories Developed by Novare Group and Batson-Cook Development Co. Beacon 430 St Petersburg 326 Units Developed by NRP Group Crescent Westshore Westshore - Tampa 374 Units Developed by Crescent Communities Franklin Street Real Estate Services 500 N Westshore Blvd Suite 750 Tampa, FL

4 TAMPA BAY MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW JUNE 2015 MULTIFAMILY SALES YTD-2015 ($5MM+ Ranked by Sale Price) Property City Units Sale Date Price Year Built Total SF Price/Unit Price/SF Avg SF Bowery Bayside (fka Camden Bayside) Tampa 832 Jan-15 $85,125, ,816 $102,314 $ Fusion 1560 St Petersburg 325 May-15 $57,500, ,954 $176,923 $ Azure St Petersburg 308 Mar-15 $55,587, ,208 $180,479 $ ,040 Viera at Westchase (Conversion) Tampa 390 Mar-15 $52,750, ,850 $135,256 $ ,115 Sabal Palms at Carrollwood Tampa 432 Feb-15 $51,500, ,040 $119,213 $ The Park at Portofino Brandon 444 Apr-15 $43,600, ,364 $98,198 $ Carlyle at Crosstown Tampa 300 Jan-15 $41,240, ,165 $137,467 $ ,011 Gardens at Cross Creek Tampa 297 May-15 $38,400, ,850 $129,293 $ ,161 Ashford at Feather Sound Clearwater 276 May-15 $34,150, ,534 $123,732 $ City Park (fka Court Village) Clearwater 228 Feb-15 $29,850, ,104 $130,921 $ ,018 Carlyle at Waters Tampa 392 Feb-15 $26,194, ,885 $66,822 $ Sienna Bay St Petersburg 276 Jan-15 $23,250, ,923 $84,239 $ Arbor Walk Tampa 230 Apr-15 $22,200, ,715 $96,522 $ Cypress Falls at Palm Harbour Palm Harbor 357 Mar-15 $22,000, ,045 $61,625 $ Vinings at Hunter s Green Tampa 240 Mar-15 $21,690, ,112 $90,375 $ ,096 The Park at Knightsbridge Riverview 228 Jan-15 $21,150, ,772 $92,763 $ The Park at Treviso St Petersburg 304 Feb-15 $20,200, ,519 $66,447 $ ,255 The Park on Waters Tampa 267 Mar-15 $19,491, ,860 $73,000 $ The Park at Gibraltar (fka Cameron Lakes) Clearwater 199 Feb-15 $19,300, ,418 $96,985 $ Coachman Crossing Clearwater 218 Mar-15 $18,925, ,168 $86,812 $ Boardwalk at Morris Bridge Tampa 146 Mar-15 $17,200, ,312 $117,808 $ ,543 Royal Breeze Clearwater 200 Mar-15 $17,200, ,200 $86,000 $ ,021 Mobley Park Apartment Homes Tampa 238 Mar-15 $13,200, ,075 $55,462 $ Courtyards on the River Tampa 304 Apr-15 $13,000, ,432 $42,763 $ ,008 Carrollwood Palms Tampa 204 Feb-15 $12,250, ,390 $60,049 $ Savoy Square Clearwater 182 Mar-15 $11,375, ,378 $62,500 $ ,079 Bryan Dairy Place Seminole 96 Mar-15 $9,000, ,800 $93,750 $ Lenox Place Apartments Tampa 168 Mar-15 $8,800, ,691 $52,381 $ Park at Pienza (fka Sun Lake Apts) Brandon 88 Mar-15 $8,750, ,425 $99,432 $ ,130 Forest Creek Largo 104 Mar-15 $7,600, ,096 $73,077 $ Woodridge at Carrollwood Tampa 137 Apr-15 $7,020, ,600 $51,241 $ Town Park Villas Tampa 66 Feb-15 $6,975, ,710 $105,682 $ ,738 Heritage at Temple Terrace Temple Terrace 118 Apr-15 $6,595, ,750 $55,890 $ ,227 Oaks View New Port Richey 152 Apr-15 $6,350, ,040 $41,776 $ Liv at Coachman Clearwater 72 May-15 $5,900, ,400 $81,944 $ SoHo Villa Tampa 40 Apr-15 $5,800, ,288 $145,000 $ Gulf Vista Apartments Redington Beach 42 Apr-15 $5,200, ,174 $123,810 $ Rivermill Hudson 136 Feb-15 $5,000, ,552 $36,765 $ AVERAGE: 238 $22,929, ,674 $93,019 $ Data derived from YTD Sales in Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas Counties Franklin Street Real Estate Services 500 N Westshore Blvd Suite 750 Tampa, FL

5 ORLANDO MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW JUNE 2015 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY & RENT GROWTH Apartment fundamentals in the Orlando metropolitan area remain very strong, and Landlords benefiting from the steadily declining vacancy rate have been increasing rents, resulting in forecasted rent growth of 6.0% by year-end Approximately 15% of Orlando s population, or 330,000 people, reside in nearly 165,000 homes in the metropolitan area, and these renters make an economic contribution of $5.8 billion per year while supporting nearly 60,000 jobs. Healthy job creation, high occupancy rates and strong rent growth has been fueling great momentum for the Orlando apartment market, with 6,000 new apartments planned for completion between 2015 and 2016 resulting in roughly a 3% increase in total inventory. The potential economic impact of those new units is nearly $1.3 billion, with an estimated 11,800 jobs created, 2,048 of which are permanent. The most active developers right now are Crescent Communities, Epoch Properties, LeCesse Development, Altman, and Integra Land. The majority of new development is taking place in North Seminole County, in Southwest Orlando near The Mall of Millenia, Sea World and the Town of Celebration, and in South Orlando s Lake Nona area, with several additional infill projects cropping up in and around the downtown core also catering to Millennials and urban dwellers. Market YoY Job Growth (6Mo Moving Avg) Completions as % of Total Stock (Apr-15) Forecast Rent Growth (YE-15) Miami 3.7% 3.4% 7.5% Orlando 4.0% 2.8% 6.0% Tampa 2.8% 2.3% 5.5% 97.00% 96.00% 95.00% 94.00% 93.00% 92.00% 91.00% 90.00% 89.00% 88.00% 87.00% Orlando MSA Occupancy Rates Source: Yardi Matrix SIGNIFICANT NEW CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (Partial List) Altis at Sand Lake Southwest Orlando 315 Units Developed by Altman Companies Artisan 420 Downtown Orlando 299 Units Developed by Jefferson Apartment Group Crescent Gateway Apartments Altamonte Springs 249 Units Developed by Crescent Communities Rize at Winter Springs Winter Springs 224 Units Developed by LeCesse Development Corp.

6 ORLANDO MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW JUNE 2015 MULTIFAMILY SALES YTD-2015 ($5MM+ Ranked by Sale Price) Property City Units Sale Date Price Year Built Total SF Price/Unit Price/SF Avg SF The Gallery at Mills Park Orlando 310 Mar-15 $66,500, ,116 $214,516 $ Sun Lake Heathrow 600 Jan-15 $66,250, ,400 $110,417 $ Citra at Windermere Windermere 360 Jan-15 $61,500, ,720 $170,833 $ ,105 Park at Laurel Oaks Winter Springs 552 May-15 $54,000, /99 534,569 $97,826 $ Century at Waterford Lakes Orlando 400 Apr-15 $53,250, $133,125 $ Tortuga Bay Orlando 314 Apr-15 $49,612, ,724 $158,000 $ ,066 Art Avenue Apartments Orlando 300 Jan-15 $47,050, ,060 $156,833 $ Village at Alafaya Club Orlando 228 Jan-15 $45,300, ,952 $198,684 $ ,434 Pure Living at Heathrow Heathrow 252 May-15 $44,750, ,501 $177,579 $ ,526 Solara Apartments Sanford 272 May-15 $42,296, ,312 $155,500 $ Heritage at Millenia Orlando 303 Apr-15 $40,000, ,330 $132,013 $ ,110 Vista at Lost Lake Clermont 276 Jan-15 $36,724, ,765 $133,058 $ ,140 Westlake Sanford 379 Feb-15 $35,900, ,649 $94,723 $ ,131 Cornerstone Orlando 430 Jan-15 $31,550, ,160 $73,372 $ Legends at Championsgate Champions Gate 252 Mar-15 $31,250, ,966 $124,008 $ ,004 Terraces at Lake Mary (fka Regal Pointe) Heathrow 284 Jan-15 $31,000, ,592 $109,155 $ Bella Cortina (fka Oakwood) Orlando 304 Feb-15 $29,900, /87 263,568 $98,355 $ Laguna Oaks Orlando 360 May-15 $29,150, ,800 $80,972 $ Promenade Crossing Orlando 212 Mar-15 $27,350, ,744 $129,009 $ Summit at Metrowest Orlando 280 Mar-15 $26,860, ,280 $95,929 $ Park at Napoli (fka Hunter s Ridge) Winter Park 238 Mar-15 $22,500, ,112 $94,538 $ Stonebridge Landings Orlando 272 Feb-15 $21,800, ,464 $80,147 $ Marbella Lake at Millenia Orlando 200 May-15 $12,750, ,200 $63,750 $ Oasis Club Azalea Park 220 Feb-15 $12,550, ,020 $57,045 $ ,041 Sun Bay Winter Park 195 May-15 $9,250, ,732 $47,436 $ Town Centre Sanford 184 Mar-15 $8,200, ,640 $44,565 $ ,025 Outrigger Village Kissimmee 192 Feb-15 $7,650, ,048 $39,844 $ Royal Summit Orlando 188 May-15 $6,627, ,384 $35,250 $ ,135 AVERAGE: 298 $33,982, ,657 $110,946 $ Data derived from YTD Sales in Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole Counties.

7 To View Our Available Properties or Register To Be Notified of New Multifamily Opportunities, Visit Us Online at FranklinSt.com JUNE 2015 Harbour Cay Apartments - Largo, FL 276 Units Price TBD by Market University Oakwoods - Tampa, FL 335 OF 450 Units $7,500,000 Waterside Village - St Petersburg, FL 102 Units $6,000,000 Lynn Village - Lynn Haven, FL 151 Units $4,600,000 Whispering Palms Bulk Condo - Largo, FL 59 Units $4,575,000 Downtown St Pete Portfolio - St Petersburg, FL 111 Units $6,650,000 INVESTMENT SALES Franklin Street Real Estate Services investment sales division specializes in efficient transaction management, helping identify buyers and sellers needs. By operating from the perspective of an investor, our team combines in-depth analysis of each asset - including cash flow models and anticipated returns - with current valuation methods to provide the information needed to make the most profitable investment decisions. Strategic Planning and Advisory Services The strategic phase of the real estate process offers the greatest opportunity to maximize cost savings and generates lasting benefits. Beginning with an understanding of your business goals and objectives, our investment sales division formulates, and delivers, targeted and customized solutions designed specifically to meet your financial objectives. Our process is straightforward: validating your need, formulating solutions, and providing a program for implementation. Acquisitions and Dispositions Franklin Street Real Estate Services will work with you throughout all property acquisition and disposition stages to ensure optimal financial results are achieved. By incorporating expert financial analysis with the most-accurate valuation methods, our research team will provide you with vital data essential to your investment decisions. Our process is based on comprehensive market knowledge, creative and effective marketing strategies, an extensive client database, and current technology applications streamlining the process and increasing speed to market. Transaction Management Effective transactions reduce acquisition and operating expenses, establish a competitive advantage, and provide necessary flexibility. Our methodology includes a comprehensive examination of the transaction at hand followed by a detailed analysis of the process. This platform provides our clients with upfront strategies yielding the greatest financial and operational results with the fewest hassles. Please give us a call or visit our website at FranklinSt.com to view our available investment properties throughout the Southeast. Darron Kattan Managing Director Darron.Kattan@FranklinSt.com Robert Goldfinger Managing Director Robert.Goldfinger@FranklinSt.com Kevin Kelleher Senior Director Kevin.Kelleher@FranklinSt.com Zach Ames Investment Associate Zachary.Ames@FranklinSt.com

8 FranklinSt.com FRANKLIN STREET FAST FACTS Franklin Street Offices Multifamily Retail Industrial Office MARKET EXPERTISE Atlanta Jacksonville Ft. Lauderdale Closed Transactions: Investment Sales, Insurance Tampa, Corporate Headquarters Clients Represented: Tenant, Landlord, Management Miami PROPERTY MANAGEMENT COMBINED EXPERIENCE OF 160+ YEARS OF ALL ASSET TYPES WITH BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST IN MULTIFAMILY AND COMMERCIAL SALES REPRESENTATION MORE THAN $500 MILLION LANDLORD 6+ MILLION SQUARE FEET IN LOAN ORIGINATIONS LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL CLIENTS REPRESENTATION OF 70 RETAILERS IN 9 STATES LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL CLIENTS INSURANCE PORTFOLIO OF MORE THAN $10 BILLION IN PROPERTY VALUES FranklinSt.com t:t: f:f: e:e: info@franklinst.com info@franklinst.com FranklinSt.com