The House Price Index and its development
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1 The House Price Index and its development from mean price thru Repeat Sales to SPAR Paul de Vries, Delft University of Technology & Erna van der Wal, Statistics Netherlands Department of Lands and Survey of Cyprus Kadaster International November 29 December 3, 2009 Delft University of Technology OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment CBS, Statistics Netherlands Challenge the future
2 Starting reële prijs (euro 2009) x1000 Industrial Revolution 1850 Credit Crunch Napoleon in Amsterdam 1795 Oil crisis th English War Crash Tulipmarket, Challenge the future
3 Nominal House Price euro X 1000 Starting 1995 we use the nominal house price for estimating the House Price Index Challenge the future
4 House Price Index 300 index Jan 1995 = Depends on registration Monthly ~ transactions repeat sales index hedonic index spar index mean price Challenge the future
5 Outline Aim 2005: Mean Price to Repeat Sales Index (RSI) 2008: RSI to Sales Price Appraisal Index (SPAR) Comparison Hedonics RS SPAR The House Price Index and its development 5 28
6 Aim The House Price Index and its development 6 28
7 Aim of the index: the actual house price Dutch Central Bank: No trust in common summary methods; Valuation portfolios: Haircut 25% by Price Rise; Thus: actual house price to low and higher reserve for mortgage risk; Solution: House Price Index for the housing market. The House Price Index and its development 7 28
8 Mean price and the Index % Index Prijsindex [Kadaster/CBS] Gemiddelde [Kadaster/CBS] Mean The House Price Index and its development 8 28
9 Hedonic regression The House Price Index and its development 9 28
10 Hedonic Valuation Process Observed House Quality House Price Sold or On-the-Market Hedonic regression - some characteristics - House Price Estimated House Price All properties The House Price Index and its development 10 28
11 2005 Repeat Sales Index The House Price Index and its development 11 28
12 Data Dutch Land Registry Office (Kadaster) Actual (delay: two weeks) Complete (all transaction) Less characteristics (only type) Only existing homes (no new dwellings) 2005: Given the data, we chose the Repeat Sales Model for calculation the index The House Price Index and its development 12 28
13 Why Repeat Sales Based on Price for single property at different points in time Literature Bailey et al. (1963); Case and Shiller (1987, 1989, 1990) Practice OFHEO House Price Index (USA) Problem revision The House Price Index and its development 13 28
14 Housing stock and transactions Owners occupied stock Sold 44% Sold twice or more 46% repeat sales Sold once 54% Not sold 56% The House Price Index and its development 14 28
15 Repeat Sales The House Price Index and its development 15 28
16 Impression Data Month 2 between two sales 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 apartments terraced corner semi-detached detached % Repeat Sales Transaction 100,0 90,0 80, number of month 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 apartments terraced corner semi-detached detached 0,0 1993The 1994 House 1995 Price Index 1998 and 1999 its development
17 Results 300 index under upper The Netherlands Total Revision The House Price Index and its development 17 28
18 Results index under upper South apartements Revision The House Price Index and its development 18 28
19 2008 Sales Price Appraisal Ratio The House Price Index and its development 19 28
20 Background Owner-occupied housing currently excluded from HICP Eurostat pilot study The House Price Index and its development 20 28
21 Sale Price Appraisal Ratio method Bourassa et al. (Journal of Housing Economics, 2006). the advantages and the relatively limited drawbacks of the SPAR method make it an ideal candidate for use by government agencies in developing house price indexes. Used in new Zealand since early 1960s; also in Sweden and Denmark Promising results in Australia (Rossini and Kershaw, 2006) Based on (land registry s) sale prices p and official government appraisals a Model-based approach using appraisals The House Price Index and its development 21 28
22 Reliability of Appraisals R2 1995: 0, : 0, : 0,95 Appraisal reasonably useful for SPAR The House Price Index and its development 22 28
23 Distribution: Ajt / Sjt ~ Black bars: 0,95 1,00 1,00 1,05 The House Price Index and its development 23 28
24 Housing stock and transactions Owners occupied stock Sold 44% Sold twice or more 46% repeat sales Sold once 54% Not sold 56% SPAR The House Price Index and its development 24 28
25 Sale Price Appraisal Patio (SPAR) principle Ratio of Sum Sale Prices (S jt ) in current period and sum Appraisals (A j0 ) in base period divide by ratio of Sum Sale Prices (S j0 ) and sum Appraisals (A j0 ) in base period The House Price Index and its development 25 28
26 Sale Price Appraisal Ratio (SPAR) SPAR index The House Price Index and its development 26 28
27 SPAR <> Repeat Sales (development) 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0, SPAR RS The House Price Index and its development 27 28
28 SPAR <>Repeat Sales: precision 350,0 0,10 0,09 300,0 0,08 250,0 0,07 0,06 200,0 0,05 150,0 0,04 0,03 100,0 0,02 50,0 0,01 0,00 0, Precision SPAR - Overijssel SPAR Precision RS RS - Overijssel The House Price Index and its development 28 28
29 Conclusion The Repeat Sales Index is a efficient model Drawback RSI: revision SPAR Method most precise index Appraisals (in the Netherlands) are reliable We uses the SPAR Model The House Price Index and its development 29 28
30 Finish De bocht van de Herengracht ( ) Gerrit Berckheyde The House Price Index and its development 30 28
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