The Market Value Analysis (MVA)

Transcription

1 Filling out the Tool Box: Market-Smart Approaches for Dealing with Vacant Houses Using the Market Value Analysis to Analyze Markets, Set Strategy and Evaluate Change September, 2013

2 Profile of TRF The Reinvestment Fund builds wealth and opportunity for low-wealth communities and low and moderate income individuals through the promotion of socially and environmentally responsible development. We achieve our mission through: Capital Grants, loans and equity investments Knowledge Information and policy analysis; PolicyMap & Policy Solutions Innovation Products, markets and strategic partnerships

3 The Market Value Analysis (MVA) The Market Value Analysis (MVA) is a tool designed to assist the private market and government officials to identify and comprehend the various elements of local real estate markets. It is based fundamentally on local administrative data sources. By using an MVA, public sector officials and private market actors can more precisely craft intervention strategies in weak markets and support sustainable growth in stronger market segments.

4 Who is using the MVA? TRF has done this work under contract to cities, states, foundations and other intermediaries in places including: City of Philadelphia, PA City of Wilmington, DE City of Newark, NJ (and an additional 8 regions across the state) District of Columbia City of Baltimore, MD City of San Antonio, TX City of Detroit City of New Orleans, LA Reading, PA and surrounding townships City of Houston, TX City of Milwaukee, WI City of St Louis (in process) Burlington County, NJ Riverline Towns (in process) Prince George s County, MD (in process) Pittsburgh, PA (in process)

5 MVA Assumptions Our Normative Assumptions when Analyzing Markets: Public subsidy is scarce and it alone cannot create a market; Public subsidy must be used to leverage, or clear the path, for private investment; Build from Strength - In distressed markets, invest into strength (e.g., major institution of place, transportation hub, environmental amenities) All parts of a city are customers of the services and resources that it has to offer; Decisions to invest and/or deploy governmental programs must be based on objectively gathered data and sound quantitative and qualitative analysis.

6 Preparing the MVA 1. Take all of the data layers and geocode to Census block groups. 2. Inspect and validate those data layers. 3. Using a statistical cluster analysis, identify areas that share a common constellation of characteristics. 4. Map the result. 5. Visually inspect areas of the City for conformity with the statistical/spatial representation. 6. Re-solve and re-inspect until we achieve an accurate representation.

7 Median Sales Price,

8 Residential Permits Valued > $50k,

9 Vacant Lots, 2010

10 Vacant Housing Notices, 2011

11 Foreclosures as a Percent of Units,

12 Baltimore MVA 2011

13 Greater than bg avg. Lower than bg avg. Around bg avg, Baltimore MVA 2011 Characteristics Market Types Median sales price (09-10) Sales price variation (09-10) Residential Permits Valued < $50k, (09-10) as % of res lots Vacant housing notices, (01/11), as % of res lots Vacant lots (07/10) as % of res lots Foreclosures (09-10) as % of priv. owned res lots Owner (2011) occupied units, 2011 Sec8 (2011) units as % of res parcels Housing units per sq. mi. Commercial + institutional land: residential land ratio A B C D E F G H Total (bg sales >4) $368, % 0.00% 4.11% 1.51% 71.58% 0.00% 1, $230, % 0.36% 2.15% 3.27% 48.89% 0.41% 10, $146, % 0.31% 3.40% 4.29% 71.57% 1.47% 3, $91, % 0.55% 3.80% 5.45% 59.40% 3.29% 3, $52, % 3.42% 5.12% 6.73% 49.92% 6.01% 6, $29, % 11.00% 5.88% 5.50% 46.69% 5.88% 4, $18, % 23.18% 11.04% 4.82% 36.67% 4.65% 5, $9, % 30.58% 12.77% 4.05% 33.96% 7.32% 5, $65, % 1.83% 4.67% 4.85% 51.92% 3.19% 4,

14 Example: What do some cities do with the MVA? (a) Align resources (b) Measure change (c) Distribute the data publicly through PolicyMap, which allows users to see the MVA along with a variety of other important indicators.

15 Align Resources: Set Priorities by Market Cluster Sample Activities A B C D E F Demolition of Dangerous Properties Encapsulation: Acquisition/Rehab Dead Tree Removal Land Assembly for Redevelopment Selective Enhancement of Lots Quality of Life Code Enforcement (broken window syndrome) Abandoned Car Removal Nuisance Abatement Enhanced Public Safety Measures Support Nutrition Services Income Maintenance Programs Job Training

16 Measure Change: Stable since block groups (63%)

17 Measure Change; Strengthened since block groups (17%)

18 Measure Change; Weakened since block groups (20%)

19 Public Access: Making the MVA Accessible with PolicyMap Example: Displaying LIHTC developments together with Baltimore s 2011 MVA

20 Ira Goldstein