Another Road, Somewhere, Oxfordshire. Site Development Feasibility Report. Prepared for ABC Developments Ltd

Transcription

1 Another Road, Somewhere, Oxfordshire Site Development Feasibility Report Prepared for ABC Developments Ltd 16 November 2011 JLDA sustainable building design (Note: this sample report contains sections from different reports and is intended to provide an example of the scope of a typical site feasibility report)

2 ABC Developments Ltd Land Feasibility Study JLDA 2

3 Contents 1. Executive Summary 4 Current development activity 4 Pricing of new build property 4 Town planning constraints 4 Site development potential 4 Financial analysis and Return on Investment 4 2. Site Context 6 The Proposed Site 6 Services 8 Flood Risk Assessment 9 3. Planning Context 10 Planning Policy 10 Planning History Development Context 12 Current Development Sites in the Locality Development Value 13 Demographics 13 Sale prices for new build and resale 17 Average Sale Values Development Potential 20 Site Feasibility Plan 20 Accommodation Schedule & Potential Development Value 22 Site Development Calculation 23 Return on Investment Calculation 24 Comments on Financial Analysis 25 Conclusions & Recommendations 26 Recommendations 26 Risk Assessment Terms and Conditions of Use 29

4 Another Road, Somewhere Road, Oxfordshire ABC Development Ltd 1. Executive Summary Current development activity In October 2011 there are 2 active developments in the local area of 69 and 22 units that are currently under construction. Across the wider area there are 6 active developments containing a total of 130 units of which 39 are still under construction. 28% are detached houses, 13% are semis, 20% are terraced and 34% flats. Pricing of new build property The average selling price at October 2011 is 44,8611 for detached houses, 303,464 for semis, 202,409 for terraced houses and 140,063 for flats. Over the last 12 months to October 2011 the average price for detached houses has risen by 10.4% compared to a fall of 5.5% for the overall market. Average prices per square foot are 214psf for 1 bed flats, 30psf for 2 bed flats, 246psf for 2 bed houses, 251psf for 3 bed houses and 317psf for 4 bed houses. Town planning constraints South Oxfordshire District Council s Core Strategy makes provision for additional houses in Henley on suitable infill and redevelopment sites. Local Plan 2011 policy H4 provides for new houses in Henley, subject to a number of criteria being satisfied. Site development potential The Shepherds Road site has a potential for 11 units totalling 14,790 sqft/ 1375 sqm in a mix of 3 and 4 bed detached houses with double garages. Using local pricing data, this equates to a total sale value of 5,989,000 at October 2011 prices. Financial analysis and Return on Investment Assuming 3 years to complete the development and a 3.5% estimated increase in construction costs per annum, the total outlay on completion will be 4,926,800. Assuming a finance requirement of 3,700,000 at 75% loan-to-value, the total initial investment outlay will be 1.226,800. Assuming a 2.0% estimated growth on current value per annum in the 3 years to complete the development, the current development value on completion will be 6,355,600. Based on these figures, the Return on Capital will be 15.6% over the period of the development. JLDA 4

5 Another Road, Somewhere Road, Oxfordshire ABC Development Ltd JLDA 5

6 Another Road, Somewhere Road, Oxfordshire ABC Development Ltd 2. Site Context The Proposed Site Fig 1. Site at XX St Andrews Road, Henley-on-Thames JLDA 6

7 Another Road, Somewhere Road, Oxfordshire ABC Development Ltd Site details Location Henley-on-Thames Gross site area 1,494 m2 / 16,065 sqft Land cost 540,000 Existing buildings or structures on site yes Listed buildings no Conservation area yes Fig 2. Site details for XX St Andrews Road, Henley-on-Thames The proposed site on St Andrew s Road is part of the curtilage of XX St Andrew s Road. A high boundary wall on the frontage separates the plot from the footway. Conservation Area Consent has been granted for the demolition of the other existing structures on the site (LPA ref P10/EXXXX/CA), whose presence was a negative feature of the area. No significant trees are present on the site that would prejudice any development. The site is at the edge of St Mark s Road Conservation Area, with both adjoining properties being outside the Area. The proposed site is located within Henley conservation area, a designated heritage asset. Henley conservation area was designated under the Planning (Listed Buildings and Conservation Areas) Act 1990 for its special architectural or historic interest, the character or appearance of which it is desirable to preserve or enhance. South Oxfordshire District Council approved the Henley Conservation Area Appraisal and Management Plan on 16th June This included a conservation area boundary review which extended the boundaries of the St Mark s Road Conservation Area to include properties in St Andrew s Road and Reading Road. St Andrew s Road is located within Character Area 7, the proposal site is therefore included within a designated heritage asset, (Henley Conservation Area) and is also identified as a non designated heritage asset of local interest. Key features of the conservation area: Mainly red brick houses with blue brick or stone decoration under Welsh slate or tiled roofs Mainly semi-detached houses, set back slightly from the road behind brick walls or hedges More substantial houses in St Andrew s Road - detached with larger gardens Roads laid out on grid pattern Common building line for most houses Reasonably generous, long, narrow gardens Houses of varied architectural designs and details JLDA 7

8 Another Road, Somewhere Road, Oxfordshire ABC Development Ltd Significant local characteristic of frontage house with larger garden behind, set back behind modest front gardens Double-depth, 2 storey houses most common; however 2 storeys plus attics typical in detached houses in St Andrew s Road Largely concealed rear gardens Positive contribution of trees and other more open gardens Fine examples of brick boundary walls Views of the surrounding wooded hills Vegetation on the site prevents any significant townscape relationship between development on it and the more recently housing on adjacent land in Western Avenue. Services Foul and Surface water A 450mm diameter surface water sewer and a 225mm diameter foul sewer runs are present in St Andrew s Road. Because new drains cannot be laid across adjacent properties, pumped sewerage and soakaways will be required for the lower part of the site. Electricity Records provided by EDF indicate a low voltage cable which runs parallel to the site s northern boundary. Gas National Grid have confirmed that there is a 180mm diameter gas main running along St Andrew s Road. British Telecom Residential and commercial services are available from BT in the St Andrew s Road area. There are no overhead lines crossing the site. JLDA 8

9 Flood Risk Assessment The proposed site is located on raised ground outside the potential flood risk area of the River Thames. 3. Fig 3. Henley flood risk area. Source: Environment Agency Fig 4. Flood Risk Areas in England. Source: Environment Agency JLDA 9

10 Planning Context Planning Policy The Oxfordshire Structure Plan makes provision for an additional 8,000 dwellings in the district between 1996 and 2011, divided between Didcot - about 5,000 dwellings (with a further 500 dwellings in the Vale of the White Horse District at Didcot) and the rest of South Oxfordshire dwellings, but there will be no significant housing growth in Henley. South Oxfordshire District Council s Core Strategy proposes to make provision for additional houses in Henley (Policy CSS1). Policy CSHEN1 accordingly includes the intention to allow housing on suitable infill and redevelopment sites. South Oxfordshire Local Plan 2011 policy H4 provides for new houses in Henley, subject to a number of criteria being satisfied. Planning Policy Statement 3: Housing (PPS3) seeks the effective use of land for housing by re-using previously developed land. For the purposes of PPS3 the Secretary of State removed gardens from the definition of previously developed land, together with the national indicative minimum density, last year. As a consequence, rear gardens are now treated as undeveloped plots with no presumption in favour of their development. Guidance in Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3), and South Oxfordshire Local Plan 2011 policy H8 recommend a minimum density of 30 dwellings per hectare. The adopted South Oxfordshire Local Plan 2011 policies G5, G6, CON7, D1, D2, D3, D4, D6, D,7 D8, H4, H8, as well as the South Oxfordshire Design Guide (SODG) 2000 and the Henley Character Appraisal in respect of Henley Character Area 7 are relevant to this proposal. South Oxfordshire Local Plan 2011 policy D1 requires that new developments contribute to the distinctive character and sense of place of each part of the district, and in the detailed design of the building and the use of materials, reference should be made to local architectural themes or traditions. The scale of any new development should be in keeping with adjoining development and with the size of the plot. Building forms should be kept as simple as possible and should reflect the general relationship of buildings to the street in the local area. Dwellings in the immediate vicinity of the plot site are a mix of large semi-detached and detached houses, and any proposal should be designed to reflect this mix. Policy D2 requires that parking should be accommodated on the development plot, and policy D3 requires garden and outdoor sitting areas to be designed so as to provide a reasonable degree of privacy. Policies D4 and D8 require that adequate privacy be provided to existing and new residents without undue intrusion from neighbours or from the public, and that buildings should be orientated within their plots to maximise daylight, passive solar gain and sunlight to garden areas, avoiding overshadowing of adjoining dwellings. Policy G6 requires that development in the district is of a high quality and inclusive design, and has regard to the distinctive characteristics of the local area and that the development is appropriate in terms of its type and its scale. Policy H4 regarding the design, height, scale and materials of a proposed development should be in keeping with its surroundings, such that the character of the area is not adversely affected. The choice of materials, the scale and JLDA 10

11 character of the proposed development should be chosen and designed to carefully respect the distinctive character of Another Road in order to fully comply with these policies. Further guidance is contained in the South Oxfordshire Design Guide Policy D7 requires access to and into buildings from the street to the proposed dwelling to ensure adequate access for those with impaired mobility, hearing or sight. The Council s parking standards set out in South Oxfordshire Local Plan 2011 Appendix 5 require 1 parking for 1 bed dwellings, 2 spaces spaces for 2/3 bed dwellings and 2+ extra spaces on merit for 4 bed+ dwellings. Planning History There have been 4 planning applications for this site. Description Demolition of existing workshop building and erection of 2m high fence. Erection of four bedroom house on rear garden plot. Construction of a new build 5 bedroom bungalow Erection of a pair of 3 bedroom single storey semi-detached dwellings Application No. P08/EXXXX P09/EXXXX P09/EXXXX P10/EXXXX Decision Conservation Consent and Planning Permission on 30th November 2008 Withdrawn prior to determination on 13th August 2009 Refusal of Planning Permission on 19th October 2009 Appeal Dismissed on 25 July 2010 Withdrawn prior to determination on 4th March 2011 Reasons for Refusal The development would be contrary to Policies G2, G4, G6, C1, D1 and H6 of the South Oxfordshire Local Plan 2011 and to advice contained in the South Oxfordshire Design Guide 2008, PPS1 and PPS3. Having regard to the modest size of the plot and to the position of the site relative to adjoining properties, the proposal would result in a cramped form of development which would be poorly related to and would be out of keeping with the pattern of adjoining development and would detract from the rural character of the area. Table 1. Planning History for XX St Andrews Rd, Henley Source: South Oxfordshire District Council JLDA 11

12 4. Development Context Current Development Sites in the Locality There are 2 active developments in the local area of 69 and 22 units which are currently under construction. Across the wider area there are 6 active developments containing a total of 130 units of which 39 are still under construction. Sales price data is not yet available for these units. This is a summary of the mix of units currently being developed in the local area. Table 2 displays the profile of units that are under construction or yet to be sold. Tables 3 and 4 set out the mix of housing being developed on all sites - both under construction and completed within the last 2 years. Mix of units by dwelling type Number % Bungalow 4 4.4% Detached house % Semi-detached House % Terraced House % Flat / Maisonette % Table 2. Mix of all housing on current active sites Source: NHBC Mix of units by bed count Number % Studio 0 0.0% 1B flats 5 5.5% 2B flats % 2B houses % 3B houses % 4B+ houses % Table 3. Mix of units on current active sites Source: NHBC JLDA 12

13 5. Development Value Demographics Demographic data RG9 National Population 21,459 Median Age % Educated to Degree level 36.25% 19.77% % Retirees 25.63% 21.96% %Full Time Students 3.15% 3.40% % Unemployed 1.64% 3.22% Average Property Value 522, ,800 Average Earnings 35,598 24,478 Property Price / Earnings Ratio 14.69x 9.06x Table 4. Demographic data for Henley-on-Thames Source: Census 2001 and Calnea Analytics (updated quarterly) The demographic data shows the social makeup of the postcode district for the plot compared to the national average. The price to earnings ratio is an effective measure of the relative affordability of property in the area. This is shown the average current value of property divided by the average annual household income for the area. The demographic data combined with the price to earnings ratio provides a picture of the market for the intended development. JLDA 13

14 Sale price trends for new build and resale Figure 5 displays the average property sale price for each type of property in Stratford for each month for the year to October Fig 5. Selling prices trends in Stratford-upon-Avon ( 000's) Source: Home.co.uk Dwelling type Oct-10 Oct-11 Change Table 5. Average property selling prices in Stratford-upon-Avon ( 000's) Source: Home.co.uk Detached house 406, , % Semi-detached House 311, , % Terraced House 221, , % Flat / Maisonette 180, , % All 291, , % JLDA 14

15 Figure 6 displays the median trend property sale price graph for Stratford for the previous 12 months. Fig 6. Median trend property prices in Stratfordupon-Avon ( 000's) Source: Home.co.uk Dwelling type Oct-10 Oct-11 Change Table 6. Change in average property selling prices in Stratford-upon-Avon ( 000's) Source: Home.co.uk Detached house 324, , % Semi-detached House 310, , % Terraced House 216, , % Flat / Maisonette 165, , % JLDA 15

16 Fig. 7 displays the average* property sale price for each type of property in Warwickshire for each month from October 2010 to October 2011 Fig 7. Change in average property selling prices in Warwickshire ( 000's) Source: Home.co.uk Dwelling type Oct-10 Oct-11 Change Table 7. Change in average property selling prices in Warwickshire ( 000's) Source: Home.co.uk Detached house 327, , % Semi-detached House 195, , % Terraced House 164, , % Flat / Maisonette 139, , % All 216, , % JLDA 16

17 Sale prices for new build and resale Local Pricing Sept 2011 Floor area ft2 Price/ft2 4B+ houses Average 317 3B houses Average 251 2B houses Average 246 Table 8. Average selling price in psf prices for houses in a range of unit sizes Source: NHBC/Hometrack JLDA 17

18 Local Pricing Sept 2011 Floor area ft2 Price/ft2 2B flats Average 303 1B flats Average 214 Table 9. Average selling price in psf prices for flats in a range of unit sizes Source: NHBC/Hometrack Figures for local pricing have been obtained from NHBC and Hometrack data. The NHBC holds a database of all new properties that are registered with them for the purposes on insurance, which accounts for about 85% of all new homes/dwellings built each year. Hometrack provide data on house prices and housing market trends, which is updated monthly. Potential purchasers must satisfy themselves as to the accuracy of this information. JLDA 18

19 Average Sale Values Analysis of actual sales prices for all completions in the catchment area over the last 12 months. The price data relates to achieved prices as recorded by a solicitor rather than asking prices. Price range by type & bed count High Low Average 4B+ houses 395,000, ,000, ,285,714 3B houses 290,000, ,000, ,333,333 2B houses 250,000, ,000, ,166,667 2B flats 225,000, ,000, ,600,000 1B flats 135,000,000 88,000, ,500,000 Studio Table 10. Price range and average selling prices Source: NHBC/Hometrack JLDA 19

20 6. Development Potential After carefully considering the existing property mix in the area as well as the relevant local planning policies, and the client s preferred dwelling house types, a site feasibility plan taking into urban design and townscape, vehicle and pedestrian movement has been produced for a scheme consisting of a mix of 3 and 4 bed detached dwellings in a price range of 475,000 to 700,000 for the Shepherds Road site. Site Feasibility Plan Fig 8. Site feasibility plan for Shepherds Road JLDA 20

21 Plot and dwelling areas for the above site plan are summarised as follows: Plot Plot Area Floor area Plot sqm/3309 sqft 84 sqm/903 sqft Plot sqm/2174 sqft 100 sqm/1075 sqft Plot sqm/2845 sqft 100 sqm/1075 sqft Plot sqm/3169 sqft 140 sqm/1505 sqft Plot sqm/3494 sqft sqm/1289 sqft Plot sqm/4876 sqft sqm/1377 sqft Plot sqm/4061 sqft 144 sqm/1548 sqft Plot sqm/4120 sqft sqm/1535 sqft Plot sqm/4930 sqft sqm/1432 sqft Plot sqm/4156 sqft sqm/1678 sqft Plot sqm/4072 sqft sqm/1369 sqft Table 11. Site and dwelling data for Shepherds Road JLDA 21

22 Accommodation Schedule & Potential Development Value Figures shown in yellow for the price psft are taken from the local pricing data from tables 8 and 9 above, otherwise client provided data. Accommodation Dwelling type Floor area ft2 Price/ft2* Sale value Plot 1 2B house ,065 Plot 2 3B house 1, ,172 Plot 3 3B house 1, ,172 Plot 4 4B house 1, ,258 Plot 5 4B house 1, ,905 Plot 6 4B house 1, ,761 Plot 7 4B house 1, ,871 Plot 8 4B house 1, ,832 Plot 9 4B house 1, ,097 Plot 10 4B house 1, ,717 Plot 11 4B house 1, ,166 Total 14,789 5,989,016 Table 12. Accommodation schedule and values for Shepherds Road JLDA 22

23 Site Development Calculation Property purchase price 2,525,000 Stamp duty land tax 126,250 5% of the purchase price wef Apr 2011 Conveyance & legal fees 44, % legal and agent fees Enetr demolitions cost 15,000 Enter electricity connection cost 25,000 Enter water & sewage connection cost 5,000 Enter telecomms connection cost 10,000 Enter Insurance premiums 15,000 PL, Latent defects Enter finance costs 83, % of finance requirement Consultants' fees (architect, town planner, engineer) 83, % of building construction cost LA planning & Building Regs fees 1,500 Enter roads & sewers costs 75,000 Dwelling construction cost 1,512, sq. 1,100 /sqm build cost rate Garages & other construction cost 160, sq. 400 /sqm build cost rate External works & landscaping 155, sq. 70 /sqm build cost rate Other Work Total construction cost 1,903,711 Contingency 47, % of total construction cost Number of years to complete development 3 Final construction cost 2,163, % pa estimated increase in construction costs Total outlay on completion 4,926,842 Enter initial finance requirement 3,700, % LTV 3,695,132 is 75.00% if financed by mortgage Enter initial nominal finance interest rate 4.65 % pa. 12 rest periods pa Enter term - enter 0 if interest only 0 years - interest only finance Calculated gross annual finance repayment 172,050 per annum or 14,338 per rest - assumed constant Total initial investment (outlay less financing) 1,226,842 JLDA 23

24 Return on Investment Calculation Figures shown in yellow as supplied by client. Number of years to complete development for RoC 3 years Assumed curent value of completed development 5,989, % pa estimated growth on current value Estimated future value of property on completion 6,355, % pa growth rate Less finance outstanding of 3,700, % current LTV % Selling costs & redemption charges 158, % (legal, agency, lender but excluding CGT) Future value of investment 2,496,702 Initial investment was 1,226,842 ie 73.03% pa growth Growth of initial investment 1,269, % increase over original 1,226,842 Annual finance costs 172,050 Return on Capital (RoC) 15.6% RoC with NO finance 7.9% pa compound Note: RoC calculation assumes costs & finance payments in arrears. Summary: 1,226,842 initial capital less 172,050 pa finance repayment over 3 yrs ends with 2,496, % pa assuming a geared property asset grows by 8.86% pa. With no finance the RoC is 7.9 % pa. Figures shown in yellow as supplied by client. All costs exclude VAT. JLDA 24

25 Commentary on Financial Analysis The land value at 2,525,000 equates to 452 psm which is higher than land values in the wider area at 360 psm. The Return on Investment is highly sensitive to any increase in construction costs and in particular to changes in the growth in value of the completed development. For example if the construction costs increase by 5% per annum over the period of the development, the RoI reduces to 13%. If property values fall 2% over that time, the RoI reduces to 1.2% (excluding any construction cost increases) If the purchase price for the land could be reduced to between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000 ( psm), any fall in property values of 2% would produce a RoI of between 10 18%. JLDA 25

26 Conclusions & Recommendations A scheme consisting of a mix of 3 and 4 bed detached dwellings in the range of 1,000 to 1,600 square feet within a price range of 475,000 to 700,000 makes optimum viable use of the site within this built-up area, in accordance with 3RDC Adopted Local Plan policy G5 of the Local Development Framework. Changes to PPS3 have resulted in the removal of the density target of 30dph, and dwelling capacities of sites are based on design case studies which recognise the characteristics of the surrounding areas. The layout of this proposal provides good sized plots, with parking arrangements for 2 spaces or double garage and 2 additional visitor spaces in compliance with policy T2. Vehicular and pedestrian access into the site is a level and would not affect the safety and convenience of users on Chorleywood Road. The proposal makes provision of a hard surface to the front door of the dwelling, in compliance with policy Policy D7 which requires access to and into buildings from the street to be adequate for those with impaired mobility, hearing or sight. The viability assessment demonstrates that this preferred option would provide a viable Return on Capital, taking into account current economic conditions. Recommendations Any development proposal should be carefully designed to balance contribution to the street scene and neighbourliness, make use traditional materials and design idioms, and seek to preserve or enhance the character and appearance of the Conservation Area. Scheme design should be appropriate for context, and make a positive contribution to the appearance, character, quality and local distinctiveness of the historic environment. The final design should take into account: Significance of nearby assets and contribution of setting General character and distinctiveness of local buildings, spaces, public realm and the landscape Landmarks and other features that are key to a sense of place The diversity of uniformity in style, construction, materials, detailing, decoration and period of existing buildings and spaces The topography Views into and from the site and surroundings Green landscaping The current and historic uses in the area and the urban grain Influence of these factors on the scale, height, massing, alignment and materials JLDA 26

27 Risk Assessment UK house sales continue to fall, with the property market in a three-year slump, and sales well below levels recorded prior to the banking crisis in Sales have been depressed by a combination of mortgage rationing by lenders, and rising unemployment. A careful appraisal of the development cost must be made in order to avoid costs exceeding the funding identified for the project. The funding for the project has been calculated having analysed the market and with reference to current building cost rates provided by the client and adding inflation allowances within the project costs. This risk has been mitigated by adopting a cautious approach to the assumptions made in the ROI calculation. However, changes in the market place may lead to a fall in sales prices and/or fluctuations in construction costs. A contingency sum has been allowed for unseen costs. This almost always relates to unexpected ground conditions, and it is recommended that a soil analysis be obtained prior to completion of the land purchase. This may identify possible contamination as well as areas of weak load bearing soils. If contamination is found, a more detailed survey with recommendations and costs for the removal of the contamination should be obtained and entered into the development cost calculation. Any areas of weak soil will require engineered foundation works, the costs of which should be reflected in the build cost rates. Other areas of uncertainty/risk have not been evaluated in this study, such as an affordable housing requirement and any planning gain agreements that may be required by the local council. You are advised to make appropriate enquires regarding these and any other matters that may affect the viability of the development. 16/11/2011 JLDA sustainable building design 17 The Green North Aston Bicester Oxon OX25 6HX UK Tel/Fax: Mob: Web: JLDA 27

28 R eferences 1. Henley Conservation Area Character Appraisal, 2004, p20 2. Communities and Local Government, Planning Policy Statement 25: Development and Flood Risk, Environment Agency, Flooding in England: A National Assessment of Flood Risk, South Oxfordshire Local Plan 2011 Sections 4 & 5: High-quality development & the social needs of communities (includes the housing allocations and housing policies) 5. South Oxfordshire Local Plan 2011 Sections 11 to 13: Henley, Thame and Wallingford 6. Planning applications: 7. Census 2001: JLDA 28

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