The Metropolitan Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy and the SACOG Region s Housing Market. July 2013

Transcription

1 The Metropolitan Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy and the SACOG Region s Housing Market July 2013

2 Draft Housing Report Purpose Provide regional data on: MTP/SCS projected growth/housing pattern, which are key to achieving VMT/GHG reductions Housing plans, production, affordability and subsidy programs, funding and policies in region Current conditions for housing market and region s households Potential market challenges to MTP/SCS implementation. Seek input on potential strategies to address challenges for housing market and region s residents.

3 MTP/SCS Projected Growth Pattern Time Period Growth in Housing Units % of Total Centers & Corridors Established Communities Developing Communities Rural Residential ,000 39% 27,678 38,169 51,035 2, ,019 61% 64,368 41,193 75,275 3,183 Total 303, % 92,046 79, ,310 5,301 30% 26% 42% 2%

4 Demographic Changes Affecting Demand Aging population Increasing racial/ethnic diversity Fewer households with children at home More individuals with disabilities More households in poverty Increasing proportion of renter, single and non-family households

5 MTP/SCS Projected Housing Product Types Community Type Rural Residential Housing Unit Growth Large-Lot Small-Lot Single- Single- Family Family Attached Center and Corridor 0% 3% 14% 83% Established 1% 30% 38% 32% Developing 1% 44% 33% 22% Rural Residential 38% 52% 9% 2% Region Total 1% 28% 28% 43%

6 Inventory of Subsidized Units County Total Housing Units** Subsidized Rental Units % Subsidized of Total Units El Dorado* 73,195 1, % Placer 154,525 4, % Sacramento 558,209 31, % Sutter 33, % Yolo 74,379 5, % Yuba 27,687 1, % Region Total 921,930 44, % *Does not include South Lake Tahoe **Source: State of CA, Dept. of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State, 2011 and 2012 with 2010 Benchmark, 2012.

7 County comparison of subsidized units to population & households county % of region's population county % of region's households county % of region's subsidized units County El Dorado* 7% 8% 3.2% Placer 15% 17% 9.7% Sacramento 62% 61% 70.2% Sutter 4% 4% 1.7% Yolo 9% 8% 12.6% Yuba 3% 3% 2.6% *Does not include South Lake Tahoe

8 Housing Choice Vouchers, Housing Authority # of Vouchers Waitlist Status # on Waitlist El Dorado County 374 Closed 327 Placer County 276 Closed 224 City of Roseville 637 Closed 500 Sacramento County 11,449 Closed 29,161 Sutter County 829 Yolo County 1,727 Closed 4,504 Yuba County 449 Open 882 Total 15,741 35,374

9 Identified Production compared with Projected Need Household Income Level Very Low Low Moderate Identified Unit Production, ,245 7,478 8,662 % of DOF Estimated Unit Growth, % 7.7% 8.9% Regional Compact Minimum Standard 4% 4% 2% Regional Housing Need Allocation ( ) 26,320 19,714 22,910 % of RHNA Projected Need 16% 38% 38%

10 Change in Housing Product Types, Region % growth in product type, Type as % of total housing stock 2004 Type as % of total housing stock 2012 Single Family Units 77% 67% 68% Manufactured Home Units -3% 4% 3% Multifamily Units 25% 29% 28%

11 RHNA : Share of 104,970 Units by Income + Identified Multifamily Production Income Category RHNA - # units % of regional total Extremely Low Income 12, % Very Low Income 12, % Low Income 17, % Moderate 19, % Above Moderate 43, % New and Proposed Multifamily Housing Units in the Region Completed/ Near Completion Proposed/ Speculative County El Dorado Placer ,237 Sacramento 1, ,397 Yolo Sutter-Yuba Total 1,172 1,606 16,495

12 Analyses of Impediments to Fair Housing Housing Market Downturn: Foreclosures Access to Mortgage Credit Subprime Loans Credit Restrictions

13 Factors Affecting Market Access Subsidized Rental Units at Risk County Subsidized rental units in SACOG inventory # of subsidized units at risk of conversion % of subsidized units at risk of conversion El Dorado 1, % Placer 4, % Sacramento 31,387 2, % Sutter % Yolo 5, % Yuba 1, % Region Total 44,726 3, %

14 Challenges for Renters: Rising Rents, Fewer Vacancies

15 Housing Discrimination Complaints, Total Disability Race Family Status National Origin Sex Religion Color Retaliation % 29% 15% 8% 8% 1% 1% 11%

16 Challenges to Homeownership Including: Continued foreclosures/short sales Rising sales prices Competition with cash investors Households with foreclosure history Mortgage credit restrictions Limited supply of existing/new homes for sale Construction costs vs. household incomes

17 Price Affordable to Median Income Household Household Median Income ( ACS) Max. Monthly Payment With 3.5% With 5% County Down Down El Dorado $70,000 $2,175 $307,869 $313,581 Placer $74,447 $2,342 $331,508 $337,658 Sacramento $56,439 $1,666 $235,821 $240,196 Sutter $50,944 $1,460 $206,662 $210,496 Yolo $57,077 $1,690 $239,218 $243,656 Yuba $46,807 $1,305 $184,722 $188,148 Assumes 40% debt ratio, 4.25% interest rate, PMI, and $450/month miscellaneous debt

18 Household Factors in Market Demand: Housing Cost Burden 41% 39% 44% 51% 59% 18%

19 Housing + Transportation Cost % of Region's Households 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 47% 32% 21% < 45% 45-60% 60%+ H+T cost as % of Household Income

20 Housing and Transportation Costs for Transit Station Areas vs. the Region, 2010

21 Population in Poverty Below 200% of FPL Total County Population Number Percent El Dorado 177,660 34, % Placer 334,718 58, % Sacramento 1,368, , % Sutter 92,477 34, % Yolo 186,800 65, % Yuba 68,848 30, % Region Total 2,229, , %

22 Impediments to New Housing Supply Development Costs - factors including allowable densities, zoning requirements, permitting time, development fees, land, material and labor costs Declining Public Subsidy federal, state, local Racially Concentrated Areas of Poverty/ Concentrated Areas of Poverty Areas of vulnerability and opportunity within the region

23 RCAPs

24 CAPs

25 Opportunity and Vulnerability Indicators Opportunity Indicators - Total Jobs - Employment Change in Good-Paying Industries - Proportion of Middle-Income Households - Change in Sales of Small Businesses - Home Ownership - Use of Transportation Alternatives Vulnerability Indicators - Unemployment - Income Below 200% of Poverty - Shrinking Businesses - Closing Businesses - Vacancy Rates - Overcrowding - Housing Cost Burden - Single-Parent Households - Linguistic Isolation

26 Opportunity Areas

27 Federal and State Housing-Related Funds CDBG, Entitlement $146,594,740 CDBG Non-Entitlement $11,760,836 HOME, Entitlement $64,727,026 HOME, Non-Entitlement $38,215,560 ESG, Entitlement $5,125,196 ESG, Non-Entitlement $4,370,013 HOPWA, $7,563,472 NSP 1, 3 $65,292,608 Federal 9% and 4% Tax Credits $480,279,361 State 9% and 4% Tax Credits $48,955,947 State Proposition 46 and 1C $311,352,448 Regional Total $1,184,236,807

28 Examples of Supportive Policies Reasonable Accommodation Linkage Fees Inclusionary Zoning Density Bonuses Rezoning Transit-Oriented Development

29 SACOG Work Enhance opportunity index variables and utility TPA case studies Inner ring suburb research Refine jobs-housing fit measure Advocacy on redevelopment funding replacement SB 375 CEQA streamlining Parking standards research RUCS - assessment of agricultural labor needs, gaps SCS Information Center

30 Next Steps Feedback from Stakeholders on draft Data weaknesses/gaps? Models/additional examples of supportive programs/policies? Land Use & Natural Resources Committee, 9/5 Identify follow-up options, coordination opportunities, what else would be helpful?