The Canadian Real Estate Association News Release

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1 The Canadian Real Estate Association News Release Canadian home sales edge down from December to January Ottawa, ON, February 15, 2017 According to statistics 1 released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were down slightly in January 2017 on a month-over-month basis. Highlights: National home sales declined 1.3% from December 2016 to January Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in January was up 1.9% from a year earlier. The number of newly listed homes dropped 6.7% from December 2016 to January The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) in January was up 15.0% (y-o-y). The national average sale price was little d (+0.2%) y-o-y in January. Home sales over Canadian MLS Systems edged down by 1.3% month-over-month in January 2017, putting them at the second lowest level since the fall of 2015 and only slightly above levels recorded last November when recently tightened mortgage regulations came into effect. (Chart A) Chart A Sales activity was down from the previous month in about half of all local markets, led by three of Canada s largest urban centres: the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Greater Vancouver and Montreal. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 1.9% compared to the * Data table available to media upon request, for purposes of reprinting only. same month last year. While sales were up from year-ago levels in about two-thirds of all local housing markets including in the GTA, Calgary, Edmonton, London and St Thomas, and Montreal, they were down significantly in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Canadian homebuyers face some challenges this year, including new mortgage rules that make it harder to qualify for a mortgage and regulatory s that will push up mortgage financing costs, said CREA President Cliff Iverson. "It will take some time to gauge the extent to which these challenges will weigh on home buyers in different housing markets across Canada. All real estate is local, and REALTORS remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future. The shortage of homes available for sale has become more severe in some cities, particularly in and around Toronto and in parts of BC, said Gregory Klump, CREA s Chief Economist. Unless sales activity drops dramatically, the outlook for home prices remains strong in places that face a continuing supply shortage." The number of newly listed homes dropped 6.7% in January 2017, the second consecutive decline. New listings were down in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by the GTA and environs and across Vancouver Island. 1 All figures in this release except price measures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Removing normal seasonal variations enables meaningful analysis of s and fundamental trends. The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 1

2 With the decline in new listings surpassing the decline in sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio jumped to 67.7% in January compared to 64.0% in December and 60.2% in November. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers and sellers markets respectively. The ratio was above 60% in about half of all local housing markets in January, the vast majority of which are located in British Columbia, in and around the GTA and across southwestern Ontario. A decline in newly listed homes further tightened housing markets that were already in sellers market territory. The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were 4.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2017 und from December 2016 and a six-year low for the measure. The imbalance between limited housing supply and robust demand in Ontario s Greater Golden Horseshoe region is without precedent (the region includes the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, the Niagara Region, Barrie and nearby cottage country). The number of months of inventory in January 2017 stood at or below one month in the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford and Guelph. The MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) now includes Oakville-Milton and Guelph, and has been historically revised to ensure that all aggregate measures remain comparable. The Aggregate Composite MLS HPI rose by 15.0% y-o-y in January This was up slightly from December s gain, reflecting an acceleration in apartment and townhouse/row unit price increases. (Chart B) Chart B Prices for two-storey single family homes posted the strongest gains (+16.8%), followed closely by townhouse/ row units (+15.8%), one-storey single family homes (+14.4%) and apartment units (+13.3%). While benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in 10 of 13 housing markets tracked by the MLS HPI, price trends continued to vary widely by location. * Data table available to media upon request, for purposes of reprinting only. The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 2

3 In the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver, prices have receded from their peaks posted in August That said, home prices in these regions nonetheless remain well above year-ago levels (+24.9% and +15.6% respectively). Meanwhile, benchmark prices continue to climb in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island together with Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton and Guelph. Year-over-year price gains in these five markets ranged from about 18% to 26% in January. By comparison, home prices were down 2.9% y-o-y in Calgary and by 1.0% y-o-y in Saskatoon. Prices in these two markets now stand 5.9% and 4.3% below their respective peaks reached in Home prices were up modestly from year-ago levels in Regina (+3.8%), Ottawa (+3.7%) and Greater Montreal (+3.1%). In Greater Moncton, home prices for the market overall held steady (-0.2%), reflecting an increase in townhouse row units prices (5.8%) that was offset by a decline in prices for one-storey single family homes (-1.0%). (Table 1) The MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by s in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2017 was $470,253, almost und (+0.2%) from where it stood one year earlier. The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets. That said, Greater Vancouver s share of national sales activity has diminished considerably over the past year, giving it less upward influence on the national average price. The average price is reduced by almost $120,000 to $351,998 if Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto sales are excluded from calculations. The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 3

4 Table 1 Composite HPI: January 2017 Interactive tables and charts for MLS Home Price Index data on Composite, Single family homes (including separate indices for one- and two-storey homes), Townhouse/row units, and Apartment units are available at Data table available to media upon request, for purposes of reprinting only. PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS Systems from the previous month CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. MLS Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 REALTORS working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at For more information, please contact: Pierre Leduc, Media Relations The Canadian Real Estate Association Tel.: or MLS Home Price Index Benchmark Price 1 month ago 3 months ago Percentage Change vs. 6 months ago 12 months ago 3 years ago 5 years ago Aggregate $551, Lower Mainland $804, Greater Vancouver $896, Fraser Valley $630, Vancouver Island $376, Victoria $559, Calgary $433, Regina $291, Saskatoon $300, Guelph $365, Oakville-Milton $700, Greater Toronto $705, Ottawa $340, Greater Montreal $311, Greater Moncton $159, The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 4

5 National Charts Chart 1 Chart 2 Chart 3 Chart 4 Chart 5 Chart 6 The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 5

6 MLS Home Price Index The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 6

7 The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 7

8 MLS Home Price Index The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 8

9 The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 9

10 MLS Home Price Index The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 10

11 Dollar Volume over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2017 Dollar Volume* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley 1, , Greater Vancouver 2, , , , , , , , Victoria Calgary , Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg Hamilton-Burlington Kitchener-Waterloo London and St Thomas Niagara Region Ottawa Sudbury Thunder Bay Greater Toronto 7, , , , , , , , Windsor-Essex Trois Rivières CMA Montreal CMA 1, , , , Gatineau CMA Quebec CMA Saguenay CMA Sherbrooke CMA Saint John Halifax-Dartmouth Newfoundland & Labrador Canada 22, , , , , , , , * in millions of dollars Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

12 Sales Activity over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2017 Sales Activity s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley 1,622 1, , ,522 1, , Greater Vancouver 2,523 2, ,613 2, ,457 2, ,553 2, Victoria Calgary 2,036 2, ,226 1, ,974 1, ,147 1, Edmonton 1,717 1, ,503 1, Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg 1,074 1, ,041 1, Hamilton-Burlington 1,293 1, ,240 1, Kitchener-Waterloo London and St Thomas 1, Niagara Region Ottawa 1,395 1, ,345 1, Sudbury Thunder Bay Greater Toronto 9,613 9, ,188 4, ,654 9, ,188 4, Windsor-Essex Trois Rivières CMA Montreal CMA 3,404 3, ,349 2, ,255 3, ,244 2, Gatineau CMA Quebec CMA Saguenay CMA Sherbrooke CMA Saint John Halifax-Dartmouth Newfoundland & Labrador Canada 45,932 46, ,216 26, ,082 43, ,282 24, Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

13 New Listings over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2017 New Listings s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley 2,357 2, ,178 2, ,085 1, ,938 2, Greater Vancouver 4,857 4, ,478 4, ,672 3, ,245 4, Victoria 868 1, Calgary 3,649 3, ,404 3, ,243 3, ,068 3, Edmonton 3,167 3, ,768 3, ,746 2, ,433 2, Regina Saskatoon 1,186 1, , ,123 1, Winnipeg 1,950 1, ,502 1, ,739 1, ,320 1, Hamilton-Burlington 1,262 1, , ,160 1, , Kitchener-Waterloo London and St Thomas 1,343 1, ,132 1, ,153 1, , Niagara Region Ottawa 2,547 2, ,920 2, ,268 2, ,697 1, Sudbury Thunder Bay Greater Toronto 10,431 12, ,338 8, ,321 12, ,338 8, Windsor-Essex Trois Rivières CMA Montreal CMA 6,040 6, ,266 7, ,619 6, ,867 7, Gatineau CMA Quebec CMA 1,226 1, ,413 1, ,110 1, ,308 1, Saguenay CMA Sherbrooke CMA Saint John Halifax-Dartmouth Newfoundland & Labrador Canada 72,433 76, ,943 70, ,677 68, ,991 62, Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

14 Average Sale Price over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2017 Average Price* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley 640, , , , , , , , Greater Vancouver 903, , ,881 1,078, , , ,242 1,083, Victoria 602, , , , , , , , Calgary 477, , , , , , , , Edmonton 379, , , , , , , , Regina 309, , , , , , , , Saskatoon 340, , , , , , , , Winnipeg 280, , , , , , , , Hamilton-Burlington 531, , , , , , , , Kitchener-Waterloo 446, , , , , , , , London and St Thomas 309, , , , , , , , Niagara Region 343, , , , , , , , Ottawa 386, , , , , , , , Sudbury 282, , , , , , , , Thunder Bay 211, , , , , , , , Greater Toronto 803, , , , , , , , Windsor-Essex 236, , , , , , , , Trois Rivières CMA 163, , n/a n/a - 162, , , , Montreal CMA 369, , n/a n/a - 360, , , , Gatineau CMA 254, , n/a n/a - 264, , , , Quebec CMA 281, , n/a n/a - 265, , , , Saguenay CMA 156, , n/a n/a - 172, , , , Sherbrooke CMA 254, , n/a n/a - 259, , , , Saint John 154, , , , , , , , Halifax-Dartmouth 278, , , , , , , , Newfoundland & Labrador 242, , , , , , , , Canada 479, , , , , , , , * Weighted residential average prices for Quebec (provided by Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards); does not affect weighted and unweighted national average price calculations. Information on Quebec's weighted average price calculation can be found at: Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

15 Sales as a Percentage of New Listings over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2017 Sales as a Percentage of New Listings* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley Greater Vancouver Victoria Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg Hamilton-Burlington Kitchener-Waterloo London and St Thomas Niagara Region Ottawa Sudbury Thunder Bay Greater Toronto Windsor-Essex Trois Rivières CMA Montreal CMA Gatineau CMA Quebec CMA Saguenay CMA Sherbrooke CMA Saint John Halifax-Dartmouth Newfoundland & Labrador Canada *Actual (not seasonally adjusted) data for sales-to-new listings ratios are based on a 12-month moving average Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

16 Dollar Volume & Sales Activity over MLS Systems of Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2017 s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Dollar Volume* British Columbia 4, , , , , , , , Alberta 2, , , , , , Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario 12, , , , , , , , Quebec 2, , , , , , , , New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada 22, , , , , , , , Sales Activity s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 British Columbia 8,221 8, ,946 6, ,529 7, ,487 5, Alberta 5,034 4, ,908 2, ,667 4, ,679 2, Saskatchewan 1,044 1, , Manitoba 1,238 1, ,193 1, Ontario 21,323 21, ,962 10, ,365 20, ,277 10, Quebec 6,950 7, ,882 4, ,486 6, ,566 4, New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada 45,932 46, ,216 26, ,082 43, ,282 24, * in millions of dollars 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

17 New Listings and Average Sale Price over MLS Systems of Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2017 s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 New Listings British Columbia 12,747 12, ,212 12, ,056 10, ,612 11, Alberta 9,781 9, ,042 9, ,611 8, ,947 8, Saskatchewan 2,780 2, ,341 2, ,522 2, ,096 2, Manitoba 2,247 2, ,763 1, ,999 1, ,535 1, Ontario 26,471 29, ,291 23, ,649 27, ,830 20, Quebec 13,519 14, ,839 15, ,972 12, ,566 14, New Brunswick 1,615 1, ,568 1, ,185 1, ,090 1, Nova Scotia 1,968 1, ,661 1, ,471 1, ,215 1, Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada 72,433 76, ,943 70, ,677 68, ,991 62, Average Price* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 British Columbia 611, , , , , , , , Alberta 405, , , , , , , , Saskatchewan 303, , , , , , , , Manitoba 277, , , , , , , , Ontario 575, , , , , , , , Quebec 290, , n/a n/a - 291, , , , New Brunswick 161, , , , , , , , Nova Scotia 200, , , , , , , , Prince Edward Island 179, , , , , , , , Newfoundland & Labrador 242, , , , , , , , Northwest Territories 341, , , , , , , , Yukon 365, , , , , , , , Canada 479, , , , , , , , * Provincial weighted residential average price for Quebec (provided by Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards); does not affect weighted and unweighted national average price calculations. Information on Quebec's weighted average price calculation can be found at: 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

18 Months of Inventory and Sales as a Percentage of New Listings over MLS Systems of Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2017 Sales as a Percentage of New Listings* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada Months of Inventory* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada *Actual (not seasonally adjusted) data for sales to new listings ratios and months of inventory are based on a 12 month moving average 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

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