Suburban Maryland Lagging Recovery

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report Suburban Maryland Office Market Fourth Quarter 2015 Suburban Maryland Lagging Recovery Andrew Wellman Research Analyst Suburban Maryland Despite strengthening market fundamentals, Suburban Maryland is still struggling to attract large tenants. Across the board, market fundamentals have improved in There was positive absorption for the year and increasing asking rents for the last three quarters. Leasing activity continued to be lackluster with very little growth by tenants that have signed within the market. During the quarter, three deals over 100,000 square feet were signed, none of which would add any positive net absorption to the Suburban office market. The lack of deal velocity mixed with the small amount of growth by tenants already in the market is why many remain so bearish on the future of Suburban Maryland. The potential driver to the market s improvement comes from the increase of high-quality residential to the market, something very successful within the District of Columbia. It is expected that upscale residential will attract workers to the area making the market a more vibrant and a viable location for companies to do business. The Chevel, developed by the Reston based Duball LLC, located on the corner of Old Georgetown and Fairmont Avenue in Bethesda is the most recent example. They purchased the land for $18 million and plan to build a 17-story 71-unit high-end condo building. They expect to break ground in early In addition, the Stonehall Bethesda, also developed by Duball LLC, which recently broke ground will deliver 46 residential condominiums and 2,200 square feet of ground floor retail. While Bethesda already has a strong residential and amenity base, this further solidifies the submarket premier designation going forward. Market Indicators Relative to prior period VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION Note: Construction is the change in under development. *Projected 2015 Q4 2016* Summary Statistics 2015 Q4 Regional Office Market All Classes Class A Class B & C Vacancy Rate 16.9% 17.9% 16.0% Change from 2015 Q3 (Basis Points) Absorption (Square Feet) New Construction (Square Feet) Under Construction (Million Square Feet) Asking Rates Per Square Foot/Year , ,954 45,073 15,000-15, Direct Asking Rate $26.22 $28.08 $24.17 Change from 2015 Q3 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%

2 Absorption For the first time in 2015, demand for space was positive for the quarter. Despite the 170,027 square feet of net absorption, it was not enough to push the year end net absorption positive. Net absorption for 2015 ended at negative 78,423 square feet. It has now been a full three years since Suburban Maryland has seen positive annual net absorption. Development Activity The small Class B office building located at Excalibur Road was the only property to deliver in Suburban Maryland in the fourth quarter. Nearly 350,000 square feet, however, is expected to deliver in the first half of 2016 including the Park Potomac project in Rockville. As of the fourth quarter, the 135,000-square-foot project will deliver with 35 percent preleased. The second floor was leased by Foulger-Pratt, the developer of the site, and the third floor was preleased to SK & A, a structural engineering company. Both of these tenants took the entire 21,000 square feet on their floors. Class A space was the anchor holding down net absorption for the year. It was the only class of space that was negative for the year. Class B and C space registered at 51,169 and 1,688 square feet of positive absorption respectively. This marks the first time in nine years that Suburban Maryland s lower quality space was positive for the year. Deliveries Suburban Maryland Office Market 2015 Q4 PROJECT DEVELOPMENT TYPE SUBMARKET CLASS DELIVERY DATE RENTAL BASE AREA % COMMITTED Excalibur Road Speculative Bowie - B December , % Under Construction Suburban Maryland Office Market 2015 Q4 PROJECT DEVELOPMENT TYPE SUBMARKET CLASS DELIVERY DATE RENTAL BASE AREA % COMMITTED Park Potomac - Building D Park Potomac Avenue Brandywine Medical Office 7704 Matapeake Business Drive Greencourt Innovation Center Parklawn Drive Speculative Rockville A January , % Speculative Outlying PG County South B January , % Speculative Rockville B January , % 7521 Jefferson Avenue Build-to-Suit Landover/Largo March , % 2 Suburban Maryland Office Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

3 Vacancy After eight quarters of increasing vacancy, there was a small reprieve for the struggling market during the fourth quarter. With the quarter s strong demand, vacancy for the quarter dropped by 20 basis points and dipped below 17 percent for the first time in two quarters, finishing at 16.9 percent. There was a 10 basis point decrease in both the direct and sublet vacancy rates in the fourth quarter. The majority of vacant space continues to be located in the Class A and B product in Suburban Maryland. Both Class A and B ended the quarter with an identical 17.9 percent vacancy rate. Rental Rates For the fifth quarter in a row, the direct average asking rental rate rose in Suburban Maryland. There was a 14- cent increase from the third quarter and rents rose 60 cents from the start of the year to end at $26.22 per square foot. Asking rents in Maryland have recovered now to nearly pre-recession levels. Driving this increase is higher quality space coming on the market. 3 Suburban Maryland Office Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

4 Market Statistics Suburban Maryland Office Market All Classes 2015 Q4 MARKET MONTGOMERY COUNTY EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY ) 2015 NEW SUPPLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION 2015 ABSORP- TION OVERALL VACANCY RATE DIRECT ASKING Bethesda 11,777, , , % $37.57 Gaithersburg 7,023, ,438 28, % $23.06 Germantown 3,133,097-80,000-8,180 34, % $24.26 I-270 North 631, % n/a Kensington 1,695, ,897 9, % $24.96 North Bethesda 11,090, ,411-79, % $29.96 North Rockville 13,398, ,687-29, % $26.46 North Silver Spring 3,245,350-25,239-11,627 12, % $24.56 County East County West 494, ,007-2, % $ , ,424-17, % $14.00 Rockville 9,808,513-10, ,550 96, , % $30.17 Silver Spring 6,943, ,242-76, % $28.20 Montgomery County Total 70,096, , , , , % $28.57 PRINCE GEORGE S COUNTY Beltsville 1,684, ,169-7, % $21.69 Bowie 1,881,023 15,000 15, ,885-37, % $13.00 Branch Avenue Corridor 1,930, ,710-24, % $16.56 College Park 4,549, ,814 84, % $20.95 Greenbelt 3,634, , , % $21.92 Landover/Largo ,089 46,582 50, % $ ,218,278 Lanham 2,062, , ,161 39, % $20.11 Laurel 2,665,963-35,000-24,437 52, % $18.66 National Harbor 722, ,382 3, % $28.16 Outlying PG County South , n/a n/a Pennsylvania Avenue Corridor 584, , % $23.08 Upper Marlboro 196, % $13.98 Prince George's County Total 23,548,873 15, , ,414 27,626 42, % $20.98 Suburban Maryland Total 93,645,467 15, , , ,027-78, % $ Suburban Maryland Office Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

5 Market Statistics Suburban Maryland Office Market Class A 2015 Q4 MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY ) 2015 NEW SUPPLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION 2015 ABSORP- TION OVERALL VACANCY RATE DIRECT ASKING MONTGOMERY COUNTY Bethesda 5,672, ,424-44, % $39.21 Gaithersburg 2,382, ,475-8, % $24.01 Germantown 1,314, ,000-8, % $25.37 I-270 North n/a n/a Kensington 165, , % $29.29 North Bethesda 7,186, , , % $31.04 North Rockville 8,017, ,902 43, % $28.00 North Silver Spring 1,399, ,103-7, % $25.09 County East County West n/a n/a 719, % n/a Rockville 4,408, , , , % $32.50 Silver Spring 4,193, ,467-74, % $30.23 Montgomery County Total 35,458, , , , % $29.74 PRINCE GEORGE S COUNTY Beltsville 916, ,426 2, % $19.63 Bowie 1,192,631 15,000 15, ,621-13, % $13.00 Branch Avenue Corridor 1,930, ,710-24, % $16.56 College Park 2,701, ,814 20, % $20.95 Greenbelt 1,468, ,930-63, % $20.20 Landover/Largo 2,260, ,089 45,224 42, % $20.49 Lanham 1,505, , % $19.45 Laurel 1,825,416-35,000-47,548 77, % $17.92 National Harbor 722, ,382 3, % $28.16 Outlying PG County South , n/a n/a Pennsylvania Avenue Corridor 352, , % $23.08 Upper Marlboro 142, % $13.98 Prince George's County Total 14,976,235 15,000 50, ,414 49,537 40, % $19.87 Suburban Maryland Total 49,614,055 15, , ,964 45,073 52, % $ Suburban Maryland Office Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

6 Market Statistics Suburban Maryland Office Market Class B & C 2015 Q4 MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY ) 2015 NEW SUPPLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION 2015 ABSORP- TION OVERALL VACANCY RATE DIRECT ASKING MONTGOMERY COUNTY Bethesda 5,450, ,473-71, % $37.29 Gaithersburg 3,850, ,410 40, % $22.32 Germantown 1,805,121-80,000-3,180 42, % $21.46 I-270 North 587, % n/a Kensington 1,246, ,514 10, % $23.62 North Bethesda 3,076, ,037 49, % $25.51 North Rockville 4,699, ,205-79, % $23.65 North Silver Spring 1,694,547-25,239-10,524 13, % $24.51 County East County West 344, ,617-1, % $ , ,424-17, % $14.00 Rockville 3,912,887-10, ,550-10,114-11, % $26.40 Silver Spring 1,975, ,179-9, % $24.45 Montgomery County Total 28,777, , ,550 13,606-21, % $27.09 PRINCE GEORGE S COUNTY Beltsville 710, ,184 17, % $19.64 Bowie 1,030,982 15,000 15, ,621-13, % $20.67 Branch Avenue Corridor 1,310, ,734-6, % $17.64 College Park 1,852, ,921 13, % $21.15 Greenbelt 1,389, ,930-63, % $19.34 Landover/Largo 1,896, ,089 45,224 54, % $20.93 Lanham 1,361, , % $19.42 Laurel 1,549,487-35,000-46,848 69, % $17.88 National Harbor 555, ,382 3, % $31.29 Outlying PG County South , n/a n/a Pennsylvania Avenue Corridor 211, , % $24.00 Upper Marlboro 65, % n/a Prince George's County Total 11,879,216 15,000 50, ,414 43,270 72, % $20.24 Suburban Maryland Total 40,656,944 15, , ,964 56,876 51, % $ Suburban Maryland Office Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Colliers International

7 Outlook The outlook for the Suburban Maryland is the exact opposite of the District of Columbia. While the District has started to see growth in the mid-sized tenants the same cannot be said in Maryland. The Federal Government will continue to shrink its floor plate in Maryland, especially along the I-270 corridor, which will further add to the glut of vacancy within the Market. If the FBI chooses one of the two Maryland locations for its headquarters, there will be a positive effect on the market bringing much needed infrastructure to Prince George s County. That will not solve all of Suburban Maryland s ills however. Restrained development and county-level cooperation in courting tenants would go a long way to turning around the Market. Park Potomac Building D Source: CoStar Group Largest Leases Suburban Maryland Office Market 2015 Q4 TENANT ADDRESS LEASE TYPE LEASED SAPCE Montgomery County 1401 Rockville Pike Relocation/Consolidation 101,200 Sucampa Pharmaceuticals 805 King Farm Boulevard Relocation 27,502 Centurs 6901 Rockledge Drive Relocation 23,888 Northrop Grumman 2101 Gaither Road Renewal 12,507 HedgeCheck LLC 8401 Colesville Road Renewal 11,304 FOR MORE INFORMATION Robert Hartley Director of Research Greater Washington, DC robert.hartley@colliers.com Andrew Wellman Research Analyst Suburban Maryland andrew.wellman@colliers.com Copyright 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Greater Washington, DC 8045 Leesburg Pike Suite 401 Vienna, VA colliers.com/washingtondc