Industrialists and landlords to brace for challenges in 2016

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1 Research & Forecast Report SINGAPORE INDUSTRIAL Q Industrialists and landlords to brace for challenges in 2016 Doreen Goh Associate Director, Research and Advisory Leasing activities in the industrial market slowed in Q due to the weakness in manufacturing and exports. Rents continued on a downward trend for conventional industrial premises in Q due to the stiffer competition for qualifying tenants, but held up relatively better for business park and independent high specification industrial space where supply was more limited. We expect this trend to continue for the rest of Occupiers will stay cost sensitive and we anticipate landlords to exhibit flexibility during lease negotiations, with tenant retention and attraction being top priorities in 2016, to maintain occupancy. In the stratatitled industrial sales segment, we foresee the subdued volumes and downward pressure on industrial property prices to continue for the rest of 2016 as buying sentiment is expected to remain weak given the softening rents, economic uncertainties and expectations of further price corrections going forward Forecast at a Glance Prime Conventional Factory Prime Conventional Warehouse Independent High Specs Industrial (Upper Floor) Business Park (Multi-user) Properties Average monthly gross rents Up to 13.5% Up to 14.0% Up to 3.0% Up to 3.5% (Strata-titled) Properties Average capital values Up to 4.0% Up to 3.5% N/A N/A Supply Demand Occupancy Rate Note: All forecast herein refers to islandwide, except for rents and capital values.

2 Leasing Market and Rental Values Volumes down for third consecutive quarter Leasing activities slowed in Q as the weakness on the manufacturing and exports fronts placed a dampener on business sentiment. According to data released by the Economic Development Board (EDB) on 26 April 2016, Singapore s manufacturing output sank for the sixth consecutive quarter, down 1.0% year on year (YOY) in Q Another key measure of the health of the manufacturing sector, the Singapore Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), also stayed persistently in the contractionary zone, registering its ninth consecutive month of decline in March Meanwhile, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) shrank by a larger-than-expected 15.6% YOY in March The worse performance in three years came just after a 2.0% YOY expansion in February Against this backdrop, the number of leasing deals fell for the third consecutive quarter in Q Information from the Urban Redevelopment Authority s Real Estate Information System (URA REALIS) showed there were 1,806 leasing transactions (inclusive of warehouse, factory and business park premises) in Q This was 7.5% below the 1,953 records in Q4 2015, and down 6.3% YOY. Tenant retention and attraction remained key priorities for landlords The unfavourable business operating environment also led most tenants to stay rental sensitive and maintain a cautious stance when evaluating their real estate requirements. Coupled with the heightened competition for qualifying tenants, landlords thus continued to place tenant retention and attraction as key priorities in Q Apart from being more proactive in reaching out to existing tenants, especially those with leases expiring in the next six to nine months, landlords were also observed to be less selective, and more willing to consider offers and negotiate terms to fill vacancies during the quarter. Notably, competition among landlords of older and newer industrial properties for qualifying tenants had intensified in recent quarters. This came as languishing sales prompted some landlords to put up their unsold strata-titled units for lease at competitive rents. competition among landlords of older and newer industrial properties for qualifying tenants had intensified in recent quarters. At the same time, there was stronger competition from some individual property owners who were prepared to drop rents to secure a tenant. This was especially for those who failed to secure a tenant after a extended time period, and needed the rental income stream for servicing their monthly mortgages. there was stronger competition from some individual property owners who were prepared to drop rents to secure a tenant. Prime conventional industrial premises felt largest downward rental pressure Among the different categories of industrial space, the prime conventional multi-user industrial space segment felt the greatest downward pressure on rents in Q Such premises typically cater to the needs of small and mediumsized businesses (SMEs). Many of these SMEs were engaged in traditional manufacturing activities and reeling from the economic uncertainties and more challenging operating environment. They were thus highly rental sensitive. Based on a basket of prime multi-user conventional factories tracked by Colliers International, the average monthly gross rent for ground and upper floor space recorded respective quarterly declines of 6.0% and 9.0% in Q This brought ground floor rents to 2.35 per month and upper floor rents to 1.83 per month, back to levels seen in A similar downward rental trend was seen for prime multi-user conventional warehouse premises, which also faced competition from newer and better designed ramp-up warehouses. Specifically, in Q1 2016, the average monthly gross rent for ground level space dropped 6.4% quarter on quarter () to For upper floor space, the average monthly gross rent lost 9.5% to Notwithstanding the faster declines in Q1 2016, the average rents for ground and upper floor prime conventional factory space were still some 25.7% and 16.6% above the respective Q troughs. Likewise, rents for both ground and upper floor prime conventional warehouse space were still 23.3% and 14.0% above the respective troughs in Q and Q Singapore Research & Forecast Report Q Industrial Colliers International

3 Average Monthly Gross Rents of Prime Conventional Industrial Space: Q % Average monthly gross rents 9.5% % 6.4% 2.33 Factory Warehouse Rents of high specification industrial premises held up better Comparatively, rents for high specification (high specs) industrial space which are more suited for higher value-add manufacturing activities - showed greater resistance towards the downward pressure. During the quarter, the average monthly gross rent for business park space inched up 0.5% to 4.17 as of Q This was predominantly supported by healthy activities in one-north, where space availability was tight given that there was no new multi-user space in the pipeline. The rental movement for independent high specs industrial space was, however, mixed in Q During the quarter, the average monthly gross rent for ground level premises saw a slight 1.5% increase to 3.36 per sq ft, mainly due to the higher rental expectation for upgraded ground level space. However, the average monthly gross rent for upper floor premises eased by 3.8% to 3.01 as of Q This was on the back of lower rental expectations from landlords looking to fill vacancies amid stiff competition for qualifying tenants. Average Monthly Gross Rents of Higher Specification Industrial Space: Q Average monthly gross rents Average gross rents % 3.8% % 3.36 Business Park Independent High Specs 3 Singapore Research & Forecast Report Q Industrial Colliers International

4 Average Monthly Gross Rents for Prime Industrial Space as of Q Prime freehold conventional industrial prices succumbed to downward pressure per month This weighed down on the average capital values of prime freehold conventional industrial premises in Q However, while those looking to sell their premises have adjusted pricing expectations downwards due to the persistently subdued sales and weak market sentiment, prices have not fallen drastically. This is in view of the limited stock of prime freehold conventional industrial space. Moreover, there was no compelling reason for most owners to let go of their properties at way below the market price. * This refers to prime conventional factory or warehouse space. Strata Sales and Capital Values Subdued sales persist for another quarter Meanwhile, sales of strata-titled industrial properties remained generally sluggish in Q1 2016, although there were opportunistic end-users sniffing for good deals in the market. while those looking to sell their premises have adjusted pricing expectations downwards due to the persistently subdued sales and weak market sentiment, prices have not fallen drastically. Average Capital Values for Prime Freehold Industrial Space as of Q Preliminary caveat records from URA REALIS as of 27 April 2016 showed the number of caveats lodged contracted for the third straight quarter to 140 in Q1 2016, from 152 in Q Apart from attributing to the usual Total Debt Servicing Ration (TDSR) and Sellers Stamp Duty (SSD) effects, the risk of further interest rate hikes and the persistent price mismatch between buyers and sellers, buying sentiment was also depressed by the falling rents Additionally, similar to Q4 2015, some industrialists remained wary about committing into a long-term real estate purchase given the current economic uncertainties, and opted to lease their business premises instead to stay flexible. Average Capital Values of Prime Conventional Freehold Industrial Space: Q Average capital values 846 2% Upper floor Ground floor Factory % % Warehouse % 4 Singapore Research & Forecast Report Q Industrial Colliers International

5 For prime multi-user freehold conventional factory developments tracked by Colliers International, the average capital values of ground and upper floor space succumbed to downward pressure in Q1 2016, after holding steady for the past six quarters. Specifically, the average capital values of ground and upper floor space fell by 2.0% and 1.9% to 846 and 721, respectively, as of Q Mirroring the same trend and for similar reasons, the average capital values of prime freehold conventional warehouse space headed south in Q after staying flat for the past two years. As of Q1 2016, ground and upper level prime conventional freehold warehouse space saw average capital values of 653 and 579, after retreating by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. The near term outlook for the industrial property sector will continue to moderate. Landlords will continue to align rental expectations with market demand. For specific segment, we may see increased warehousing activities in the e-commerce trade and pharmaceutical industry. - Lim Kien Kim, Executive Director, Industrial Services Colliers International Singapore 5 Singapore Research & Forecast Report Q Industrial Colliers International

6 554 offices in 66 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 34 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 231 EMEA: 112 $2.5 billion in annual revenue For more information: Lim Kien Kim Executive Director Industrial Services Anthea To Senior Associate Director Research and Advisory Colliers International Singapore 1 Raffles Place #45-00 One Raffles Place Singapore TEL FAX RCB No E 2 billion square feet under management 16,000 professionals and staff About Colliers International Group Inc. Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is an industry leading global real estate services company with more than 16,000 skilled professionals operating in 66 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation and tax consulting; customized research; and thought leadership consulting. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice that help clients accelerate their success. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 11 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

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