ONE OF THE CRAZIEST YEARS EVER

Transcription

1 Michael Ferreira, October 20, 2016

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4 ONE OF THE CRAZIEST YEARS EVER

5 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALES YTD COMPARISON 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % 33% 13% ,966 12,061 3,905 Total N. of Fraser S. of Fraser

6 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALES YTD COMPARISON 10,000 8,725 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 3,967 3,274 0 Concrete Wood Frame Townhomes

7 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALES YTD COMPARISON 956 1, , , , ,268 3,859

8 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS - TOWNHOMES Line-ups and lots and lots of sales Over 2,200 of them

9 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS - TOWNHOMES 80% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

10 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS LOW RISE CONDOS More line-ups and more sales over 1,500

11 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS LOW RISE CONDOS 67% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

12 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS No line-ups and fewer sales 340 in CP achieving over $500 PSF

13 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS 46% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

14 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS TOWNHOMES You guessed it more line-ups and more sales Over 780 sold in 2016

15 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS TOWNHOMES 65% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

16 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS LOW RISE CONDOS No line-ups that we could find photos of But lots of sales Over 1,900 in 2016

17 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS LOW RISE CONDOS 63% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

18 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS I bet you thought I was done with the line-ups More and more sales Over 5,700 in 2016

19 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS Burquitlam Five projects launched in ,101 units added 1,087 sold Just 18 unsold

20 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS New Westminster Peninsula by Aragon 66 of 118 released units sold $680 ish PSF

21 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS Brentwood 1,600 units sold 30% price 10,000+ units in planning

22 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS Metrotown Quiet year until Station Square Towers 4 & 5 Tower 4: 306 of 334 sold Tower 5: 423 units It s going very, very well

23 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS Richmond Steady Eddie 1,050 sales in 2016 Tax this!

24 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS North Shore Land of the rising price $850+ PSF in Lynn Valley $1,100+ PSF in LoLo $1,200+ PSF in Edgemont $2,000+ PSF in West Van

25 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS 37% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

26 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER TOWNHOMES Need more townhome 230+ sold in 2016 Just 53 available

27 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER - TOWNHOMES 84% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

28 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER LOW RISE CONDOS Need more low rise too 500+ sold in 2016 Just 39 available in 4 projects

29 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER LOW RISE CONDOS 89% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

30 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER HIGH RISE CONDOS 2,500 sold in 2016 Good-bye to <$1,500 PSF Downtown $1,200+ PSF the Van West norm Van East breaks $900 PSF

31 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER HIGH RISE CONDOS 80% Supply drop Q to Q % Price rise 2015 to 2016

32 DEMAND DRIVERS

33 DEMAND DRIVERS IMMIGRATION (AKA FOREIGN BUYERS) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2016

34 DEMAND DRIVERS FOREIGN CAPITAL FLOW $10 TRILLION SIZE OF CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2008 $24 - $25 TRILLION SIZE OF CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2015

35 DEMAND DRIVERS FOREIGN CAPITAL FLOW $14 - $15 TRILLION INCREMENTAL INCREASE EQUALS SIZE OF U.S. BANKING SYSTEM WHICH TOOK 100 YEARS TO GROW TO THIS SIZE

36 WEALTH TRANSFER DEMAND DRIVERS 193,000 HOMES OWNED CLEAR TITLE BY 55+ RESIDENTS $197 BILLION IN TAX FREE EQUITY

37 DEMAND DRIVERS BC INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION 17,000 Net BC Interprov Migration AB Int Immigration 12,000 7,000 2,000 3,000 8,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2016

38 THE OTHER SIDE OF THE EQUATION

39 THE SUPPLY SIDE QUARTERLY SALES VS. UNSOLD INVENTORY 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Sales Released Inventory

40 WHAT DOES GOVERNMENT DO?

41 (AKA CHINESE BUYER TAX)

42 FOREIGN BUYER TAX IMPACT ON THE NEW HOME MARKET 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,607 1, ,004

43 STRICTER MORTGAGE RULES AKA. LETʼS SCREW THE BUYERS WHOʼVE AFFECTED AFFORDABILITY LEAST BUT ARE MOST IMPACTED BY IT.

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45 HEREʼS A THOUGHT #ITSABOUTSUPPLYTOOSTUPID

46 THE SUPPLY SIDE MONTHS OF SUPPLY DOWNTOWN VAN WEST VAN EAST RICHMOND BBY/N. WEST NORTH SHORE TRI CITIES RIDGE MDWS SURREY/N. DELTA S SURREY/W ROCK LGLY/CLOVERDALE Concrete Wood Frame Townhome

47 HEREʼS ANOTHER THOUGHT HOW ABOUT APPROVING MORE PROJECTS MORE QUICKLY?!?

48 THE SUPPLY SIDE CONTEMPLATED PROJECTS

49 THE SUPPLY SIDE ACTIVE PROJECTS TREND Concrete Wood Frame Townhome

50 THE SUPPLY SIDE AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT TREND $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 Concrete Wood Frame Townhome

51 ONE FINAL THOUGHT

52 SAY YES!

53 SAY YES!

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