Summary of JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (No. 10, Apr. 2018)

Transcription

1 May 29, 2018 Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) Summary of JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (No. 10, Apr. 2018) We are pleased to release a summary of the results of the 10th JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (as of April 2018). Survey Results at a Glance (in Comparison with Survey No. 10, Change Rate from Oct to Apr in Parentheses) ( Office Market Hong Kong: the highest growth rate in office building value at +9.0% during the last six-month period among the monitored cities; also ranked No. 1 in the previous survey; well over 10% Y/O/Y hike in value; a series of highly-priced transactions amid robust investment appetites of Hong Kong and mainland Chinese investors. Tokyo: slight increases in both value and rent due to a large volume of office space supply and the market overheating concerns of investors. Osaka: a continuation of cap rate compression; the second highest value growth after Hong Kong. Singapore: a negative rental growth rate trends for the last two years; an inflection point in the second half of 2017 after the end of a slew of new office space supply; rent increases primarily seen at downtown prime office buildings. New York : a flat value movement and slight declining rental trend; an increasing weary outlook of cap rate rise and value fall due to the expected rate hikes by the Fed by the end of this year. : continual decreasing value/rent trends mainly because of the UK s political and economic uncertainties, including the difficult Brexit negotiations with the EU; strong investment interests from foreign buyers, especially those from Asian nations, who attempt to capitalize on the weakened pound sterling. Condominium Market For two surveys in a row, Hong Kong was ranked No. 1 for the growth rate in condominium value among the surveyed cities (+7.1%) owing to the following two reasons: (a) a traditionally undersupplied market; and (b) the active purchasing behaviors of people from mainland China. Office Building Value Change Office Building Rent Change Condominium Value Change Condominium Rent Change 6 month. Change 6 month. Change 6 month. Change 6 month. Change Hong Kong 9.0% Hong Kong 2.7% Hong Kong 7.1% Beijing 2.7% Osaka 4.4% Bangkok 2.6% Seoul 5.6% Bangkok 2.0% Bangkok 3.6% Osaka 1.9% Osaka 2.0% Shanghai 1.5% HCMC 2.8% HCMC 1.9% Bangkok 2.0% Tokyo 0.9% Singapore 1.5% Singapore 1.4% HCMC 1.1% Hong Kong 0.9% Seoul 1.4% Beijing 1.2% Singapore 1.0% Osaka 0.1% Tokyo 1.3% Tokyo 0.9% Jakarta 0.8% Taipei 0.1% Beijing 1.2% Seoul 0.3% Shanghai 0.7% Seoul -0.1% Jakarta 0.9% Shanghai 0.1% Tokyo 0.5% Kuala -0.6% Shanghai 0.1% Taipei 0.0% Beijing 0.5% HCMC -0.7% New York 0.0% -0.3% Kuala -0.5% -0.8% Taipei -0.1% Kuala -0.4% Taipei -1.0% Singapore -1.3% Kuala -0.3% New York -0.5% -1.4% Jakarta -2.0% -0.6% Jakarta -2.2% New York -2.8% New York -2.1% Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 1

2 1. Half-Year Growth Rate of Value/Rent Index by 1-1. Growth Rate of Office Building Value Index (From October 2017 to April 2018) Figure 1-1 shows the half-year growth rate of the office building value index in each surveyed city. As of April 2018, the growth rate was highest in Hong Kong (+9.0%) followed by Osaka (+4.4%). Tokyo experienced a moderate growth rate due to a large amount of office space supply and investors concern over the possibility of an overheated market. Figure 1-1: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Office Building Value Index 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Oct-17 Apr-18-4% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Oct % 4.8% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 6.5% -0.1% 0.9% -0.5% 3.5% 0.9% 3.4% 0.1% -0.9% Apr % 4.4% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 9.0% -0.1% 1.5% -0.3% 3.6% 0.9% 2.8% 0.0% -0.6% 1-2. Growth Rate of Office Building Rent Index (From October 2017 to April 2018) Figure 1-2 shows the half-year growth rate of the office building rent index in each surveyed city. As of April 2018, the growth rate was highest in Hong Kong (+2.7%) followed by Bangkok (+2.6%). In New York, rental growth turned to a small positive figure primarily because of a big volume of office space supply from new development projects, including Hudson Yards. Figure 1-2: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Office Building Rent Index 4% Oct-17 Apr-18 2% 0% -2% -4% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Oct % 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% -0.5% 0.6% -2.2% 1.2% 0.0% -0.4% Apr % 1.9% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 2.7% 0.0% 1.4% -0.4% 2.6% -2.2% 1.9% -0.5% -0.3% Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 2

3 1-3. Growth Rate of Condominium Value Index (From October 2017 to April 2018) Figure 1-3 shows the half-year growth rate of the condominium value index in each surveyed city. As of April 2018, the growth rate was highest in Hong Kong (+7.1%) followed by Seoul (+5.6%). In Seoul, the Moon administration began to tackle the issue of increasing housing prices by implementing several government policies, such as raising the rates of relevant taxes. Figure 1-3: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Condominium Value Index 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Oct-17 Apr-18-4% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Oct % 0.9% 3.1% 0.6% 1.6% 5.2% -1.1% 0.1% -0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% -1.2% -1.6% Apr % 2.0% 5.6% 0.5% 0.7% 7.1% -1.0% 1.0% -0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.1% -2.8% -1.4% 1-4. Growth Rate of Condominium Rent Index (From October 2017 to April 2018) Figure 1-4 shows the half-year growth rate of the condominium rent index in each surveyed city. As of April 2018, the growth rate was highest in Beijing (+2.7%) followed by Bangkok (+2.0%). The Chinese government started to focus on improving the apartment leasing market as a means of the provision of stable housing supply. The growth of apartment rents recently trended upward mildly in Beijing and Shanghai. Figure 1-4: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Condominium Rent Index 4% Oct-17 Apr-18 2% 0% -2% -4% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Oct % 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 2.1% 3.1% 0.3% -1.9% -1.2% 0.8% -1.5% 1.0% -0.3% -1.0% Apr % 0.1% -0.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% -1.3% -0.6% 2.0% -2.0% -0.7% -2.1% -0.8% Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 3

4 2. Value/Rent Trend by (October 2010 =.0) Figure 2-1: Office Building Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Tokyo ] [ Osaka ] [ Seoul ] [ Beijing ] [ Shanghai ] [ Hong Kong ] [ Taipei ] [ Singapore ] Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 4

5 Figure 2-1: Office Building Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Kuala ] [ Bangkok ] [ Jakarta ] [ HCMC ] [ New York ] [ ] Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 5

6 Figure 2-2: Condominium Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Tokyo ] [ Osaka ] [ Seoul ] [ Beijing ] [ Shanghai ] [ Hong Kong ] [ Taipei ] [ Singapore ] Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 6

7 Figure 2-2: Condominium Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Kuala ] [ Bangkok ] [ Jakarta ] [ HCMC ] [ New York ] [ ] Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 7

8 3. Value and Rent Comparison among Surveyed Cities (October 2018) 3-1. Value Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings Figure 3-1 shows the index number of the value per leasable square meter for a prime office building in the CBD of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District =.0). The value of the building in the local currency of each foreign city was converted to the value in the Japanese yen and indexed. (The same method was also applied to the office building rent comparison.) Figure 3-1: Value Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings (Tokyo's Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of April 2018 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the prime CBD office building value per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of April 2018 =.0) 3-2. Rent Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings Figure 3-2 shows the index number of the rent per leasable square meter on the typical floor of a prime office building in the CBD of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District =.0). Figure 3-2: Rent Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings (Tokyo's Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of April 2018 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the prime CBD office building rent per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of April 2018 =.0) Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 8

9 3-3. Value Comparison of High-End Condominium Units Figure 3-3 shows the index number of the high-end condominium unit value per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District in Minato Ward =.0). The value of the unit in the local currency of each foreign city was converted to the value in the Japanese yen and indexed. (The same method was also applied to the apartment rent comparison.) Figure 3-3: Value Comparison of High-End Condominium Units 250 (Tokyo's Moto Azabu District as of April 2018 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the high-end condominium value per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District as of April 2018 =.0) 3-4. Rent Comparison of High-End Condominium Units Figure 3-4 shows the index number of the high-end condominium rent per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District in Minato Ward =.0). Figure 3-4: Rent Comparison of High-End Condominium Units 300 (Tokyo's Moto Azabu District as of April 2018 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the high-end condominium rent per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District as of April 2018 =.0) Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 9

10 Global Property Value/Rent Indices In order to investigate the real estate market trend of some major cities in the world, we compiled the value/rent indices of surveyed assets, which were appraised by JREI staff valuers. Survey at a Glance Surveyed Cities : Tokyo, Osaka, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Kuala, Bangkok, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh (HCMC), New York, and (14 cities) Use : Office and condominium No. of Surveyed Assets : Six assets in each city (three office buildings and three condominiums) Survey Method : We compiled indices based on the appraised value or rent per square meter of each asset by assuming that the subject asset would be newly developed and sold or leased as of either April 1 st or October 1 st each year. Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 10