A Technical Analysis of Transient Lodging Demand Along the Grand Strand: The Moving Average Rate of Change
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1 A Technical Analysis of Transient Lodging Demand Along the Grand Strand: The Moving Average Rate of Change A Presentation To The Little River Rotary April 8, 2015 L. Taylor Damonte, Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration
2 Horry County Transient Lodging Study Hotels, condo-hotels, & campsites (HC-HCs), nightly rentals Performance estimated using self-reported performance data from a voluntary sample of participating properties Average weekly number of units (n) = 10,693 (15,364 bedroom equivalents). The units are 32% hotels (25% of bedroom equivalents), 60% condo-hotels (65% of bedroom equivalents), 8% campsites (9% of bedroom equivalents).
3 Horry County Transient Lodging Study Vacation rental properties (VRPs) includes homes and condominiums, weekly rentals. Performance estimated using a scientifically random observation sample of 10 percent of all VRP properties for which property status and pricing data in made available on the Internet. Average weekly number of units (n) = 217 units (864 bedroom equivalents). The units are 69% rental homes, accounting for 82% of the bedrooms in the VRP sample.
4 Horry County Transient Lodging Inventory Units Bedroom Equivalents 1 Units Bedroom Equivalents % Change in Units % Change in Bedroom Equivalents Hotels/Condo-hotels 37,021 41,467 39,402 53,165 6% 28% Timeshare Units 3,261 5,982 5,971 11,085 83% 85% Campsites 4,554 6,831 5,125 7,688 13% 13% Vacation Rental Properties 4,182 20,074 5,305 21,751 27% 8% Total 49,018 74,354 55,803 93,688 14% 26% 1 -- bedroom equivalents are defined as spaces capable of sleeping 2 to vacation rental properties includes both single-family and multi-family units. This number changes throughout the year. It is estimated by counting the units advertised on the internet and through informal surveys of realtors 3 -- assumes 1 campsite = 1.5 bedroom equivalent sleeping spaces
5 Weekly Performance Metrics The researchers track weekly performance and the 52- week moving average rate of change in three similar metrics for each segment: For HC-HCs - average percent occupancy, average daily rate, and revenue per available room. For VRPs average percent reserved, average advertised rental price, average revenue per available bedroom.
6 18.00% 52-Week Moving Average Change in Hotel, Condo-Hotel, and Campsite Average Occupancy and 52- Week Moving Average Change in Average Percent of Vacation Rental Property Bedrooms Reserved Along the Grand Strand, May 6, March 28, % 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% Jan % 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% % Jan Vacation Rental Property Hotel, Condo-Hotel, and Campsites VRP Long Term Average HC-HC Long Term Average Rental Week Decline in the moving 52-week average occupancy for HC- HCs led the decline in the real estate market by two years.
7 12.00% 52-Week Average Change in Average Daily Rates in Hotel, Condo-Hotel, Campsites and 52-Week Moving Average Change in Average Advertised Weekly Price per Bedroom in Vacation Rental Properties Along the Grand Strand May 6, March 26, % 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% % Rental Week Vacation Rental Property 52 Week Advertised Price Change Hotel, Condo-Hotel, and Campsite 52 Week ADR Change VRP Long Term Average HC-HC Long Term Average The moving 52-week average rate of change in ADR/AWR for VRPs is below the long term average but even with the current rate of change in ADR for HC-HCs %
8 16.00% 52-Week Moving Average Change in Hotel, Condo-Hotel, Campsite Average RevPAR & 52-Week Moving Average Change in Vacation Rental Property RevPAB Along the Grand Strand, May 6, March 28, 2015, % 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% % % % % % Rental Week Vacation Rental Property Estimated RevPAB Change Hotel, Condo-Hotel, Campsite RevPAR Change VRP Long Term Average HC-HC Long Term Average The 52-week moving average rate of change in RevPAR/RevPAB for VRPs and for HCHCs is now above the long term average rate of change
9 Jan Jan The rate of change in the moving 52-week average daily rate for HC-HCs lags the rate of change in occupancy.
10 Mar Nov A relatively more fixed supply and lower weekly rental price per bedroom delayed the cycle for VRPs. However by Nov. 2012, AWR in VRPs was 88% of ADR in HCHCs.
11 Factors Impacting Area-Wide Average Occupancy Percentage 1. a change in the level of demand for tourist experiences in the destination versus those at competing destinations. 2. a change in the amount of inventory of all types of lodging in the destination, including vacation ownership.
12 Factors Impacting Lodging Demand Change in demand for the area s natural and built attractions relative to demand for competing destinations. These can be impacted by weather and other environmental factors within the destination, and within competing destinations. i.e. hurricanes, oil-spills, etc. Change in the prices of all tourist services (attractions & food) at the destination versus that of competing destinations. Change in the price (money & time) to travel to the area versus competing destinations. i.e. fuel prices, airfares, road/airport conditions. Change in the level and quality of advertising and publicity about the destination and about competing destinations, both paid and unsolicited. Change in personal income. Change in the level of personal savings. Change in consumer and business confidence. Damonte - Loftus E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Damonte. Administration L.T.
13 Questions or other thoughts? Send them to L. Taylor Damonte on twitter follow Taylor TES_CCU Damonte - Loftus E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Damonte. Administration L.T.
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