Market Assessment DRAFT. CITY OF SAN LEANDRO Community Development Department

Transcription

1 D o w n t o w n S a n L e a n d r o Tr a n s i t - O r i e n t e d D e v e l o p m e n t S t r a t e g y Market Assessment DRAFT CITY OF SAN LEANDRO Community Development Department April 2006

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3 Executive Summary This Market Assessment report was prepared to provide information for the Downtown San Leandro Transit Oriented Development Strategy (TOD Strategy) currently being prepared by a multi-disciplinary consultant team led by BMS Design, working for the City of San Leandro, with assistance from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission s (MTC) Pilot Station Area Planning Grant program and the Alameda County Transportation Improvement Authority (ACTIA). The TOD Strategy is focused on the area of Downtown within an approximately 1/2 mile radius of the intersection of East 14 th Street and Davis Street. The purpose of this Market Assessment report is to highlight current demographic trends and real estate market conditions, assess the baseline of future development potential absent any actions by the City, and identify the potential amount and types of development that could occur for the City s TOD Strategy. One of the key goals for the TOD Strategy is to encourage a greater level of development and more diversity in uses and building types, in order to leverage existing and proposed transit investments in Downtown San Leandro by AC Transit and BART. TOD development product types also have the potential to attract new types of retail services and office employment that would further the City s economic development goals for Downtown, providing residents with enhanced shopping, dining, and other services. Key Findings Key findings for development potential and TOD product types, as explained in detail in the body of this report, include: Development Potential. Based on current projections from the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), between 2005 and 2020, the Downtown Area could expect approximately 1,140 new residential units, 284,000 square feet of new offices, and 35,000 square feet of new retail. These projections are based on ABAG s modeling of historical trends, development patterns, and available land, but do not represent a market-potential forecast. Analysis of recent market trends as well as the potential effect of a TOD Strategy on Downtown area development suggests that between 2005 and 2020, the amount of development could be more than doubled, with a potential for approximately 2,290 or more residential units of all types, 614,000 or more square feet of office space; and 71,000 square feet or more of new retail space. i

4 For Sale Housing. New residential development in San Leandro has historically been focused on single-family units, although a significant amount of senior housing and some condominiums have been built in the Downtown area. Based on current market conditions, there is strong potential market support in the near-term for a variety of townhouse and condominium for-sale projects. New units could be similar to developments recently built in Hayward and at other BART stations. The prices realized by these new condominium projects, which are higher than typical sale prices for resales of older condominium units in San Leandro, suggest strong market demand. New Downtown multifamily units with contemporary design and amenities would increase housing choices for San Leandro residents, particularly for empty nesters and seniors who are currently single-family homeowners and may desire to remain in place but with a more convenient unit accessible to shopping and transit. Other market segments analyzed include first-time homebuyers and Downtown workers commuting from other locations who may seek housing close to the workplace. In the longer-term, should San Leandro pursue denser residential TOD, and if current market trends continue and City policies allow, there may be an opportunity to construct taller mid-rise residential condominium buildings of eight to twelve stories or more. Rental Residential. Over the past few years, the combination of current rent levels and high land and construction costs have led to minimal development of new market-rate rental residential units in San Leandro, as well as the Bay Area region, with the exception of some luxury units in urban locations. This trend is not expected to change in the near term. In the longer-term term, as market conditions change, there may be opportunities for market-rate rental residential development that targets those interested in a quality project with a transit amenity but are not interested in homeownership. Office. San Leandro s office market consists of a variety of smaller and older buildings that primarily serve smaller local businesses and professional firms. There is currently a substantial vacancy in this type of space, exceeding 60,000 square feet, largely due to functional obsolescence. The other type of office space in San Leandro is more modern, larger-floorplate space, oriented towards larger businesses and public agencies, including back office functions. An example is Creekside Plaza at San Leandro Boulevard and Davis Street, which attracts this type of tenant and is expected to begin construction on its Phase 3 building within the next year. TOD presents opportunities for smaller offices, including office condominiums and live/work products that could appeal to local firms and professionals. At the same time, larger firms that draw employees from throughout the East Bay and beyond could be attracted to single-tenant facilities of two to three stories, or multi-tenant midrise buildings. In the longer-term, as the Downtown area becomes a more established location for larger office tenants, office could be included in the lower levels of mid-rise mixed-use buildings that include residential on the upper floors, taking advantage of downtown amenities and transit services. Retail. The Downtown area features a mix of neighborhood retail and services in located in the Washington Plaza Shopping Center, as well as in other freestanding buildings and on the ground floor ii

5 of historic buildings. While the mix of merchants offers a range of convenient daily and weekly shopping needs, newer residents in particular have expressed a strong desire for a broader range of dining and other shopping choices. The dominance of larger regional retailers and entertainment at Bayfair Mall and other locations in San Leandro indicates that Downtown retail will continue to be neighborhood serving. It is likely that many regional and national chains are not yet aware of San Leandro s enhanced demographic profile. New locations in the ground floor of mixed-use buildings in an enhanced Downtown setting may appeal to these tenants. New residents and workers attracted to higher-value new development would support additional retail uses. As Downtown attracts new retailers and existing retail space turns over, there may also be opportunities to locate higher quality dining and shopping choices in these spaces. Opportunity Sites The Existing Conditions Report identified 26 potential opportunity sites for TOD in the Downtown area on a total of 67 acres. Detailed analysis in this Market Report identified additional smaller parcels that could support TOD in the Downtown area, adding 11 sites for a total of five additional acres. These sites are significant because they can support smaller-scale developments and attract a variety of types of development companies, increasing the diversity of TOD projects. An analysis was conducted to evaluate the relationship between potential demand for TOD product types and uses and the amount of land in the opportunity sites that is potentially available for such development. Assuming typical TOD densities 1, it appears that potential demand for land for new TOD development and the available supply are approximately in balance. Implementation Considerations Subsequent work for the TOD Strategy will include financial feasibility analysis to determine whether current market prices/rents and development costs can support the creation of TOD or whether additional incentives may be needed. A key issue for this analysis will be the impact of parking requirements. Current City parking requirements are relatively high, reflecting typical suburban environments. High parking standards reduce the size of potential developments and create increased construction costs, often causing projects to be infeasible. The financial feasibility analysis will address the impact of current parking standards on development costs, in conjunction with other work by the consultant team to evaluate how TOD and mixed-use development can result in a decreased need for parking. 1 A Floor Area Ratio of at least 2.0 for commercial uses (i.e. developed area is up to twice the area of the site), and average residential density of at least 35 to 40 units per acre. iii

6 Assumptions and Limitations A Market Assessment provides a broad look at current economic and development trends and potential opportunities. However, it does not constitute a detailed market study for a particular project or site and therefore cannot be relied upon to forecast specific future levels of sale prices, rents, or absorption levels for any particular type of development or individual development project. The information presented in this report is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau; the Association of Bay Area Governments; Claritas, a private data provider; information provided by the City of San Leandro; and information gathered by BAE, including third-party reports, interviews, and research using various data sources. Market conditions continually change, and should be expected to fluctuate significantly over the longterm period addressed by the TOD Strategy. iv

7 Table of Contents Executive Summary... i Introduction... 1 Purpose of Report... 1 Area Definitions... 1 Current and Future Development Patterns... 3 Subareas... 3 San Leandro Redevelopment Efforts... 4 Parking... 5 Demographic and Employment Trends... 6 Demographic Trends... 6 Employment Trends... 8 Summary of Demographic and Employment Trends Real Estate Market Conditions Commercial Market Residential Market Planned and Proposed Projects Market Demand Estimates Residential Demand Office Demand Retail Demand Development Opportunity Sites Potential Opportunity Sites Summary of Demand Compared to Development Potential Appendix A: Map of Census Block Groups & Census Tracts Appendix B: Demographic and Economic Data Appendix C: Real Estate Market Information Appendix D: Demand Estimates Appendix E: Opportunity Sites v

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9 Introduction Purpose of Report This report provides an overview of market opportunities in Downtown San Leandro. The Market Assessment describes existing market conditions within the Study Area and potential market opportunities for Transit Oriented Development (TOD) near the proposed Bus Rapid Transit stop on East 14 th Street, extending as far west as the San Leandro BART Station. Analysis for this report is based on data collected from the U.S. Census, Claritas, Inc. (a private vendor), the City of San Leandro, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), the 2002 U.S. Economic Census, First American Real Estate Solutions (FARES), RealFacts rental apartment data, Colliers International Regional Market Reports, as well as site tours and independent market research conducted by Bay Area Economics (BAE). Area Definitions Study Area The Study Area is defined as the area within a ½- mile radius from the intersection of East 14 th Street and Davis Street (See Figure 1), bounded roughly by Euclid Street to the north, Bancroft Avenue to the east, Alvarado Street to the west, and Castro Street to the south. For purposes of describing demographic conditions within the Study Area, this study uses U.S. Census data at the Census Block Group level for demographic characteristics and at the Census Tract level for job data. These Census geographies create an area similar to the Study Area boundary. Appendix A provides a map illustrating the boundaries of the Census geographies 2. 2 Although its area is slightly larger than the ½- mile Study Area, demographic data as described by the Census Block Group-defined Study Area are an excellent proxy for describing demographic conditions in the ½-mile Study Area. Household and population characteristics immediately outside the ½-mile Study Area are not expected to differ materially from those inside the ½-mile Study Area. 1

10 Market Areas This Market Assessment focuses on office, retail, and multifamily housing (both rental and for-sale units) land uses. Each land use draws from a different market area. For example, neighborhood-serving retail draws most of its demand from the immediately surrounding neighborhoods. In contrast, office space in San Leandro generally competes with other office spaces throughout the city and the Oakland Airport Area regional sub-market. Although many potential residential buyers and renters will originate from San Leandro, new housing can attract people from a larger area. Mixed-use developments can draw from different market areas within the same project, i.e. ground floor retail and/or commercial may have a more local market area than a residential component. Thus, the Market Assessment compares the Study Area to the City of San Leandro and Alameda County, to encompass these different geographies and their demographic trends. 2

11 Current and Future Development Patterns Downtown San Leandro has many characteristics similar to those of other downtowns within the first ring of Bay Area suburbs. Downtown San Leandro has a mix of historic and modern buildings, primarily built from the early 1900 s through the 1960 s. The area originally served as the main retail center for the City of San Leandro, but over time it has lost much of its business to surrounding malls and big box retail centers. Redevelopment efforts have resulted in increased building densities and relocation of public uses to Downtown. Construction of the Washington Plaza Shopping Center and additional surface and structured parking lots reflected Downtown s auto orientation during past decades. Reversing this trend, the City now emphasizes making Downtown more pedestrian-oriented, including a new pedestrian connection through Washington Plaza. According to City staff, while Downtown San Leandro struggled in the 1980 s and 1990 s with a number of vacancies scattered throughout Downtown, few retail spaces are vacant today and retail sales are comparatively strong. Downtown San Leandro benefits from the major public transportation asset of the San Leandro Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Station, directly west of the Downtown on San Leandro Boulevard. AC Transit is currently planning a new Bus Rapid Transit line (BRT) to run along East 14 th Street, which will reinforce this transit accessibility feature. In addition, the San Leandro Redevelopment Agency is currently constructing pedestrian and lighting improvements from the BART station to Washington Plaza Shopping Center along West Estudillo Avenue. Figure 2: Subareas Subareas The Study Area has four relatively distinct subareas, based on current development patterns (see Figure 2). The first, located in the central Downtown area, centers at the intersection of East 14 th and Davis Streets and serves as the Study Area s retail core. This subarea provides residents and daytime workers with an assortment of restaurants, coffee shops, personal services, a grocery store, drug stores, and banking activities, as well as small professional offices. Immediately to the south, the area is characterized by a mix of single- and multifamily housing, including senior housing, along with auto service and stand-alone retail establishments. 3

12 The second subarea, located east of East 14 th Street, consists primarily of single-family housing interspersed with multifamily complexes, along with several small office buildings one block east of East 14 th Street. This subarea has few development opportunities and is not likely to significantly change in the near term. The third subarea, near the intersection of Davis Street and San Leandro Boulevard, offers proximity to the BART station. This subarea contains a mix of larger office buildings, BART parking, a Catholic elementary school, and industrial buildings. This subarea presents the most near-term development opportunities, due to its relatively large parcels, opportunities to consolidate parking, and surrounding uses that would be compatible with new mixed-use development. Extending along East 14 th Street north of Root Park, the fourth subarea includes senior housing, City Hall, Police Department headquarters, and a mix of low-intensity retail uses. Single-family neighborhoods lie east and west of the commercial corridor. This area faces redevelopment challenges due to small parcel sizes and multiple owners. For more discussion on existing land use patterns and development history, please refer to the previous Existing Conditions Report (March 2006). San Leandro Redevelopment Efforts The City s Redevelopment Agency administers two redevelopment project areas within the Study Area: 1. The Plaza Project Area, which includes much of Downtown, as well as Davis Street from East 14 th Street to Douglas Street. 2. The Joint Project Area, which includes the southernmost portions of the Study Area along East 14 th Street. This district contains unincorporated areas, which are under the jurisdiction of Alameda County s Redevelopment Agency. The Redevelopment Agency has undertaken a number of infrastructure and streetscape improvements within the Plaza Project Area. These include pedestrian and lighting improvements along West Estudillo Avenue from the San Leandro BART station to Washington Plaza. The Agency also plans to close West Joaquin Avenue at the eastern end of Washington Plaza, underground utilities on West Joaquin Avenue, and build a public plaza. These actions will augment existing streetscape improvements underway at the AC Transit Rapid Bus stop at East 14 th and Davis Streets. The Agency is in the process of property acquisition and Potential Development Plan for Town Hall redevelopment of the northwest block of East 14 th and Davis Streets. If the Agency can acquire all of the properties, it will facilitate development of a mixed-use residential and commercial project called Town 4

13 Hall Square. Preliminary plans also include expanding the Estudillo-Callan parking garage to increase Downtown parking supply, which would allow for future new development on existing public surface lots. According to Agency staff, the Plaza Project Area has limited tax increment resources to accommodate additional future projects. Town Hall and related scheduled improvements, which is in Plaza 2, Area 1 and expires on January 1, 2012, will absorb remaining financial resources. However, the Agency hopes to continue to pursue development opportunities on Agency-owned infill parcels, leveraging private investment, and would consider a storefront façade improvement program if Agency funds became available. Parking One of the key challenges to developing downtowns such as San Leandro in a transit-oriented context is the provision of sufficient parking. Merchants, shoppers, employers, and residents seek convenient parking, while developers often seek to consolidate parking to intensify land use on available surface lots. According to the Existing Conditions Report, the City currently has a slight surplus of parking during peak demand hours (12:00 to 2:00 PM). While the analysis indicated that free surface parking lots tend to be nearly full at peak hours, on-street parking spaces during peak periods were only 35 percent to 45 percent utilized in the overall Study Area. These findings suggest excess capacity during peak demand hours and the ability to support additional development, although careful further planning is needed to ensure sufficient parking capacity at all locations. It should also be noted that current City parking standards may serve to discourage multi-family housing development under today s economic conditions. For example, the City currently requires 2.25 spaces (includes two covered and 0.25 spaces for guest parking) for new two-bedroom multifamily units compared to two covered parking spaces for a single-family home. These parking standards are also applied to mixed-use residential developments, with the exception of the East 14th South Area District. 3 Although the City currently allows for reductions in parking through a conditional use permit or parking exceptions, this process can create uncertainty and impact developer interest in new projects. These related parking issues sufficient Downtown parking for all uses and the impacts of parking standards on development feasibility - will be addressed in a subsequent phase of the TOD strategy through a detailed parking plan. 3 The East 14 th South Area District allows 1.75 parking spaces for each two bedroom unit (including guest parking) and two parking spaces for each three bedroom unit. 5

14 Demographic and Employment Trends This section summarizes local demographic and employment trends and analyzes their impacts on the potential for transit-oriented development in Downtown San Leandro. For the purposes of this analysis, three geographies of interest are used: the Study Area 4, the City of San Leandro, and Alameda County. The City represents the general market area surrounding the Study Area, and the County provides a larger context in which to analyze local and regional trends. Data tables are provided in Appendix B. Demographic Trends Population and Household Trends Table 1 in Appendix B summarizes population and household trends for the Study Area, the City of San Leandro, and Alameda County. According to Claritas Inc., a private demographic vendor, the Study Area grew from 2000 to 2005, adding approximately 730 residents, for an annual average growth rate of 1.4 percent. The Study Area s population growth outpaced both the City and Alameda County, which grew annually at 0.5 and 0.6 percent respectively during the same period. In 2005, the Study Area contained an estimated 10,600 residents living in 4,520 households. Average household size increased slightly from 2000 to 2005 in the Study Area, echoing citywide and regional trends. Table 2 provides more detail regarding the distribution of household sizes in the Study Area, San Leandro, and Alameda County. One- and two-person households account for 71 percent of Study Area households, while one- and two-person households represent 60 percent of San Leandro households and 56 percent of Alameda County households. These smaller households in San Leandro represent one of the potential market segments that can be attracted to transit-oriented residential development in multifamily configurations. Tenure The Study Area contains a substantially higher proportion of renter households than citywide or for the County overall (see Table 1). According to the 2000 Census, approximately 61 percent of Study Area households were renters in 2000, compared to just 39 percent for San Leandro overall. In contrast, the Study Area contained just 39 percent owner households, compared to 61 percent owner households for the City overall. Ownership rates for the City were higher than for Alameda County (61 percent to 55 percent respectively). Age Distribution As shown in Table 3, the median age of Study Area residents, at 38.9 years, was higher than San Leandro and Alameda County residents in 2000 (median age of 37.7 in San Leandro and 34.5 in Alameda County). Furthermore, with 18.4 percent of its population age 65 years and older, the Study Area contains 4 For purposes of demographic analysis, Census Block Groups were matched as closely as possible to the ½ mile Study Area. The Block Groups used were Groups 1 through 5 of Tract 4326, Block Group 3 of Tract 4322, and Block Group 3 of Tract

15 a slightly higher proportion of seniors than citywide. San Leandro, in turn, had a substantially higher proportion of seniors (16.0 percent) than Alameda County overall (10.2 percent). Conversely, the Study Area had lower concentrations of children than San Leandro and Alameda County as a whole. Children under 18 years account for approximately 19 percent of the Study Area s population, compared to 22 percent of the City s population and 25 percent of Alameda County s population. Tenure by Age According to the 2000 U.S. Census, San Leandro has a large portion of senior homeowners age 65 years and older (see Table 4). Senior homeowners represent one-third of all homeowners in the City. In comparison, throughout all of Alameda County, senior homeowners account for only 22 percent of all homeowners. Senior households often choose to downsize their housing as maintenance of a larger single-family home becomes more physically and financially burdensome. Downtown has an opportunity to capture a portion of these senior homeowners wanting to remain in San Leandro and benefit from nearby access to neighborhood-serving goods and public transit. Household Incomes As shown in Table 5, the Study Area s estimated 2005 median household income, at approximately $51,000, was somewhat lower than the City overall ($61,000) and the County ($66,000). However, due to smaller household sizes, this median household income figure is somewhat misleading; Table 5 also shows the estimated per capita income (household median divided by average household size), indicating that the Study Area and the City s per capita figures are similar, at approximately $28,200 per capita for each geography. Alameda County shows a similar per capita income estimate, at $31,300. This analysis suggests that Study Area and San Leandro residents have similar potential spending patterns for retail as the general population. Both San Leandro overall and the Study Area contain a relatively strong concentration of middle income households. Approximately 42 percent of the Study Area and 38 percent of the City s households earned between $35,000 and $75,000 in 2005, compared to 31 percent for Alameda County. In contrast, at the higher end of the income spectrum, both the Study Area and the City have a smaller concentration. For example, less than 15 percent of Study Area households fell into the category of households earning $100,000 or more, and 23 percent of City households fell into this category, compared to almost 40 percent of County households. These local area income patterns suggest that retail goods and services targeting middle income households are best-suited to current demographic patterns of San Leandro residents. Educational Attainment The educational attainment patterns for San Leandro vary somewhat from Alameda County overall (see Table 5). While more than 75 percent of San Leandro s adult residents (age 25 and over) have graduated high school, only 25 percent have a bachelor s degree or higher. In comparison, more than 82 percent of Alameda County s adult residents have graduate high school, and almost 35 percent have a bachelor s degree or higher. 7

16 Population and Household Projections For informational purposes, projections of future population and household for the Study Area and the City of San Leandro are provided in Appendix B. The projections, prepared by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) are available at the Census Tract level (see map in Appendix A for reference). ABAG s projections are based on a combination of near-term available land to accommodate growth and a longer-term smart growth policy framework that assumes higher intensity development will occur in existing urban areas, especially near public transit. Based on ABAG s forecast methodology, the Study Area s number of households is expected to grow more than 19 percent from 2005 to 2020, adding approximately 1,140 new housing units. This reflects City efforts to facilitate redevelopment and identified capacity for additional development in and around East 14 th Street and the San Leandro BART Station. 5 Single-family neighborhoods to the north of the Study Area are not expected to experience significant growth due to existing zoning standards that support the long term preservation of those single-family neighborhoods. In comparison, the City overall is expected to add just under 3,500 new households and the County is expected to add more than 76,000 new households during the forecast period of 2005 to The projections also provide an age breakdown. San Leandro is anticipated to increase its concentration of seniors age 65 and over, reaching more than 16,500 seniors by Employment Trends Employment trends were analyzed using 2000 Census data for jobs by Census Tract (see Appendix A for map of Census Tracts). In 2000, there were approximately 5,600 jobs in the Study Area, and more than 40,500 jobs in the City of San Leandro. Study Area jobs were concentrated in the education/health/social services sectors, along with retail. According to the Census, the Study Area contained a sizeable health care practitioner workforce, along with notable legal and office workforce. The Study Area s health care, education, and social services employment represent nearly one quarter of the City s total employment in this category. In addition, due to the City and County government buildings within the Study Area, public administration employment accounted for 40 percent of the City s total jobs in this sector. In 2000, these three employment categories (legal, office, and health and social services) provided approximately 1,600 jobs in the Study Area. These employees generally have middle to upper incomes and present an opportunity for new residential development, offering urban living near the workplace. 5 For more information on ABAG s Forecast methodology, visit ABAG s research website at 8

17 Just over one-third of the Study Area s employment was office-related. 6 This data does not take into account new office employment since 2000 generated by the development of the Creekside Plaza office complex on Davis Street and San Leandro Boulevard, which added an estimated 430 office jobs. The 2000 Census data showed approximately 900 retail jobs in the Study Area, which is likely undercounting current employment because the Study Area has added new retail establishments since that time such as Beauty Source, Bella Vista Optometric, EB Games, and Galleria Art and Framing. Citywide, the economy had concentrations of employment in manufacturing (more than 19 percent of total jobs), along with retail and wholesale trade, and education/health/social services. Projected Employment Growth ABAG projects future employment in the Study Area, the City, and the County (see Figure 10). Between 2005 and 2020, the Study Area is projected to increase its employment base by more than 2,250 jobs, an increase of 36 percent. ABAG expects health, education, and recreational service employment to outpace all other employment categories in the Study Area, indicating increasing demand for medical and education space. As stated earlier, ABAG apportions its regional growth projections to smaller areas based on a combination of available land and a policy framework that concentrates employment and housing growth near transit. This means the employment growth estimates are not solely based on future market demand, but also based on smart growth policies directed to increase employment in existing urban areas, especially around transit nodes. Estimated Increased Health/Education/Social Services Space The Study Area will grow by approximately 900 health, education, and recreation service workers from 2005 to Assuming an employment density of 400 square feet per new worker in these sectors, demand for education, medical, and social service building space will increase by 370,000 square feet or approximately 20,000 square feet per year. 7 This will likely be a mixture of new school facilities, public agency offices, and medical office space. Increased Office Demand In addition to health, education, and recreation job growth, ABAG projects financial and professional service employment within the Study Area to grow by 70 new jobs per year. Financial and professional service employment generally demands office space. Thus, any increase in this category reflects additional demand for local office space. By the year 2020, ABAG expects approximately 600 new financial and professional service jobs within the Study Area. The City overall will gain approximately 2,100 financial and professional service jobs during the same period. While ABAG expects the Study Area to capture 28 percent of Citywide office demand, a directed City policy to focus future office in or near Downtown could increase its share of Citywide office demand. Downtown is well-positioned to capture a larger share of Citywide office demand, considering its proximity to BART and Rapid Bus 6 Office-related employment is defined as jobs in information, finance, insurance, and real estate, professional, scientific, management, and administrative occupations. 7 Employment density estimates based on South Coast Area Government s Employment Density Study completed in October

18 combined with available retail and pedestrian amenities. If half of the City s projected new office employment were located Downtown, these 1,050 new workers would translate into a Study Area office demand for approximately 360,000 new square feet from 2005 to Increased Day-Time Retail Expenditures New office space also generates increases in day-time retail activity. According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), the average office worker generates approximately $3,000 in retail expenditures near his/her place of work per year. 8 Based on ABAG employment projections, the Study Area will average 150 new jobs per year. This translates into approximately $450,000 in increased daytime expenditures per year. Summary of Demographic and Employment Trends The above analysis provides the setting for current and future market conditions. Study Area residents and households can be characterized as relatively middle income, with a concentration of seniors, living in relatively small households. A high proportion of Study Area residents are rental households, suggesting opportunities to add for-sale housing to broaden the mix of housing choices Downtown. Study Area employment trends indicate a sizable base of workers in several industry sectors that may seek housing opportunities close to the workplace. As demonstrated by the Creekside office project, Downtown San Leandro offers the opportunity to attract and support new office tenants, in both larger floorplate configurations as well as small professional offices. San Leandro overall is also relatively middle income, has moderate educational attainment, and is characterized by a relatively high proportion of senior homeowners. This market segment will likely seek out alternative housing choices as it ages in place, near shopping and transit, such as those offered by Downtown San Leandro. 8 Office Worker Retail Spending Patterns, Suburban Markets Close to Work, International Council of Shopping Centers, Retail expenditures are estimated at approximately $3,290 per suburban office employee. Rounding to the nearest thousand provides a more conservative estimate of local retail expenditures. 10

19 Real Estate Market Conditions This chapter summarizes existing real estate market conditions within the Study Area for available office space, retail space, single-family homes, condominiums, and apartments. Research included a survey of available properties for sale or for lease within and directly outside of the Study Area, as well as analysis of several databases. Data referred to in this chapter is included in Appendix C. Commercial Market Office Market CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) provides quarterly office summary reports for the East Bay Office Market. CBRE estimates San Leandro s office space accounts for approximately two percent of the larger East Bay office market. 9 According to the most recent quarterly report (Fourth Quarter, 2005), the East Bay Office market shows signs of full recovery from losses experienced during the dot-com crash in 2001 and Oakland and Berkeley s office rents are rising, with vacancy rates at approximately 10 percent. This has generated development interest in the East Bay. Large office projects are planned or under construction in Downtown Oakland, Emeryville, and Berkeley. CBRE believes as the Downtown Oakland s office market further tightens, surrounding suburban markets will follow, including San Leandro s office market. CBRE reports San Leandro s monthly office lease rates are slightly less expensive at $2.25 per square foot, full service, compared to East Bay lease rates overall ($2.32 per square foot, full service). 10 Still, CBRE reports lower vacancies in San Leandro at 14.1 percent, compared to 16.5 percent within the larger East Bay Region. Colliers International, also reports on the larger East Bay Office Market. Recent property purchases by major investment companies combined with low unemployment rates and increasing leasing activity indicate growing supply pressures on Class A office space. 11 For this report, available office space in the Study Area and vicinity was identified and is shown in Table 11. The survey identified 11 available office spaces, as well as three office buildings for sale. Available office spaces were generally located in older buildings in average condition. The vast majority of the establishments in these offices were medical offices, real estate brokers, accountants, financial planners, and other small businesses. None had large offices with 20,000 square feet or more, indicating that the Downtown office market currently has an ample supply of office space for smaller professional offices, but does not have large floorplates available to accommodate administrative or other corporate users. 9 MarketView, Oakland, East Bay Office. CB Richard Ellis, Fourth Quarter, The East Bay Market is defined as western Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, including Richmond, Oakland, Emeryville, Alameda County North, Alameda County South, Berkeley West, Berkeley Downtown, and San Leandro. 10 Full Service leases are when tenant pays full rent, including all expenses, and landlord uses that revenue to cover operating costs, taxes, insurance, and profits. 11 Oakland, Office Overview. Colliers International, Third Quarter,

20 Based on the survey, there is currently approximately 35,000 square feet of available professional office space in the Study Area plus another 14,000 square feet in the vicinity, enough to absorb approximately 170 new professional and medical office employees. 12 Lease rates show a broad range of pricing, up to a level of $2.25 per square foot per month (industrial gross) for newer professional office space. 13 New high quality office space should command higher lease rates similar to those achieved at Creekside Plaza on Davis Street and San Leandro Boulevard. Creekside Plaza has leased-up Phases I and II and plans to begin Phase III in June of 2006 for a total of approximately 205,000 square feet of office space. For Phase III, Creekside Plaza expects lease rates from $2.85 to $2.95 per square foot. New high quality office space should expect to command similar lease rates. The survey also identified three office properties for sale. A small professional office building is listed for $300 per square foot, with a slightly larger medical office asking $230 per square foot. Both buildings are older and in average condition. In addition, the survey identified office condominiums for sale. The property owner has converted an office building into 23 office condominiums after making minor renovations to the building. These spaces range from 544 to 2,000 square feet with asking prices from $260 to $275 per square foot. Overall, East Bay office conditions are poised to recover to 2000 office market conditions. San Leandro should expect to capture a portion of regional office demand, particularly in the Study Area with proximity to BART, potential Bus Rapid Transit, and nearby retail amenities. This is especially the case among government office tenants who generally choose to locate near public transit to provide access for their service population and as an overall government policy. Since San Leandro is central to Alameda County, Alameda County Government offices present a clear office opportunity within the Study Area. Retail Real Estate Market Grubb and Ellis reports annually on retail real estate market conditions in the Oakland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) 14 and in 2005 stated that the average reported retail lease rate for the Oakland MSA was approximately $3.00 per square foot per month, triple net. Grubb and Ellis reported retail demand has remained strong, with retail vacancies at or near historic lows. 15 There are few available retail spaces in the Study Area, indicating healthy demand for retail space in Downtown San Leandro. The survey conducted for this report identified three smaller retail spaces available for lease, located in older buildings constructed in the 1960 s and 1970 s. Retail lease rates for the available space varied from $1.50 per square foot to $2.50 per square foot per month, triple net. Two 12 This does not include approximately 50,000 square feet planned for construction at Creekside Plaza, which has a leasing commitment. The employment absorption estimates assumes an average employment density of 350 square feet per person on a gross basis. 13 Industrial gross is a way of charging rent that often works out to slightly lower rates than full service from a comparability point of view. Industrial gross charges a base rent for the space similar to full service (including most costs), but the tenant pays utility costs directly. This allows the landlord to limit the risk of different tenants using different amounts of electricity or other utilities, etc. 14 Retail Market Trends in North America. Grubb and Ellis Research, Summer, East Bay Quarterly, Economic Development Alliance for Business, UCLA Anderson Forecast, January,

21 spaces also allow office tenants. Existing tenants in these buildings primarily consist of smaller neighborhood-serving personal services and specialty retail. The Market Assessment also compiled lease rates at Bayfair Center to find prevailing lease rates for newly renovated retail space at this regional destination. Bayfair Center has similar lease rates to the Study Area, ranging from $1.50 to $2.25 per square foot per month with additional common area maintenance charges (CAM). Bayfair Center has approximately 30,000 square feet available for lease, which represents less than five percent of its total leasable space. There are also two smaller retail buildings available for sale within the Study Area. Asking sales price vary significantly between the two spaces, from $232 per square foot to $373 per square foot. Overall, the low vacancy rate combined with relatively healthy lease rates for small retail space indicates potential for additional retail space in Downtown San Leandro. Furthermore, as the local day-time and residential population grows, so should retail demand. Residential Market For Sale Residential Similar to other residential real estate markets in the Bay Area, San Leandro has experienced a recent rapid rise in home prices. From February 2005 to February 2006, the average resale price of a home in San Leandro appreciated by approximately 15 percent. 16 This continues a five-year trend of double digit annual appreciation in the East Bay. Table 13 provides data from the First American Real Estate Solutions (FARES) database of recorded sales from the Alameda County Assessors Office. The data represents all verified single-family, condominium, and duplex sales in the Study Area from March 4, 2005 through February 21, Within the Study Area, approximately three-quarters of the sales during the period analyzed were single family homes, with the remaining split among condominiums and duplexes. Since there has been very little new home development within the Study Area, this data reflects primarily resales of existing housing units. There were 202 single family sales, with a median sales price of $549,500 in the Study Area. Median sale prices ranged from $286,000 for one-bedroom units to $710,000 for four-bedroom or more units. Condominiums averaged approximately 17 percent less per square foot than traditional single-family homes. Much of the existing condominium housing stock comprises older 1960 s and 1970 s units, which likely do not reflect potential future pricing of new condominiums. Of those condominium units 16 California Home Prices Medians by City, Home Sales Record in February, 2006, DataQuick Real Estate News, March, First American Real Estate Solutions provides property sales data by Thomas Brothers Guide Map Book boundaries. The boundaries approximate the Study Area boundaries (1/2 mile radius from East 14 th Street and Davis Street). The Thomas Brothers map pages are 671-B7, 671-A7, 670-J7, 691-A1, 691-A2, 691-B1, and 691-B2. 13

22 constructed in the 1980 s in the Study Area, the median condominium price was approximately $390,000 for a typical two-bedroom condominium. New single-family, townhome, and condominium units would be expected to sell for more than prevailing resale prices providing more modern amenities and design. According to Hanley Wood, a market research company that tracks new home sales, the nearest condominium development currently selling units is Montierra Condominiums in Hayward. 18 This forsale project, a converted apartment complex with minor improvements, has achieved sales prices of approximately $415 per square foot and has sold out its first phase. As a converted apartment complex, these units do not reflect prices of new condominiums that would offer modern features and some customizable amenities (e.g. hard wood floors, granite counter tops, security system, etc.). New condominiums should expect higher prices than those found at Montierra. Hayward has seen an impressive surge in for-sale multifamily unit development over the past five years. Centered in the Downtown core, there have been several major developments completed since These developments are typified by two- to three-story townhouse construction, with units typically including attached garages and sometimes utilizing tandem parking. Similar to the Study Area, these units are located within easy walking distance of BART and near downtown shops and restaurants. Among recently sold-out condominiums in central Hayward 19, the median price is $569,500, higher than the overall housing market in central Hayward (ZIP code 94541), where the median price in October 2005 was $419,000. On a per square foot basis, condominium prices were $407 versus $343 for the overall housing market. New townhomes and condominiums in the Study Area are likely to command higher values than those exhibited among new condominium and townhomes in central Hayward. Similar to new housing constructed in Hayward, the Study Area benefits from close proximity to BART while at the same time, existing home prices in the Study Area exceed prices found in central Hayward. In addition, Hayward condominium and townhomes sold relatively quickly indicating strong demand for similar housing near BART. Therefore, the Study Area should command healthy demand for condominium and townhomes with values that exceed those achieved in central Hayward. Rental Residential Current rental rates in San Leandro were analyzed based on data provided by RealFacts, a private data vender. With an inventory of complexes with more than 50 units, the data shown on Table 14 indicates that rents in San Leandro were relatively flat during the most recent period (2004 to 2005). Average rents ranged from $812 for studios to approximately $1,400 for larger two and three bedroom Broadmoor Senior Housing 18 Market Intelligence, Hanley Wood, January, 31, Downtown Hayward is defined as the ZIP code. 14

23 units. Rents per square foot ranged from approximately $1.25 for two bedroom units to $1.50 per square foot for smaller one bedroom and studio units. The data shown encompasses the relatively older multifamily housing stock present in San Leandro as more than 80 percent were constructed before New construction would likely command higher rents per square foot. However, it should be noted that current rent levels, coupled with relatively high construction and land costs prevalent in the central Bay Area, generally have resulted in few new rental housing projects developed during the past several years. Exceptions have been luxury units or units with scenic views (e.g., the Essex at Lake Merritt) but even the Essex project, constructed three years ago as a rental project, has since converted to for-sale condominium units, yielding substantially higher profits to its developer. In recent years, many studies have been conducted to identify rent "premiums" attributable to locations in close proximity to transit. According to Dr. Cervero s Literature Review of Transit-Oriented Development Studies, 20 these premiums are difficult to quantify, although recent research suggests that there is increasing demand on the part of the development community for sites near transit. These sites, which may not command a directly identifiable higher per square foot rental rate or sale price, nevertheless appear to command stronger-than-typical consumer interest due to transit access. Given current and past market conditions in downtown San Leandro, this market overview concludes that new rental housing near the BART station would likely command the top of the market in terms of rental rates, provided other common amenities are provided. A well-designed luxury rental project may exceed current high end rents, particularly if marketed as a transit-oriented development project. Financial feasibility analysis to be conducted in subsequent phases of work for the Transit-Oriented Development Strategy will identify the rental rates needed to support new market-rate rental residential development. Comparison of the calculated threshold rate with current rental rates may allow further consideration of the potential timeline before new market rate rental residential development is likely to occur in the Study Area. Planned and Proposed Projects Current planned and proposed projects were investigated in and near the Study Area. Planned and proposed development provides insight into the future competitive supply and potential changes in local real estate market conditions. Table 15 summarizes the planned and proposed developments for the Study Area and adjacent areas. Mixed Use Large-scale plans include the proposed Town Hall Square on to-be-consolidated parcels located on the northeast corner block of Davis Street and East 14 th Street. The plan for the site is in development but could potentially include approximately 120 condominiums units and 15,000 retail square feet at the site. Parcel assembly is a major barrier to development. 20 Cervero, Robert, Transit-Oriented Development and Joint Development in the United States, A Literature Review, sponsored by the Federal Transit Authority, October,

24 The Red Mountain Retail Group has formulated preliminary plans to redevelop the vacant Albertsons site on East 14 th Street. The developer plans to demolish a portion of the existing Albertsons building, add podium parking, and build approximately 60 condominiums on either side of the Albertsons building with additional ground-floor retail. The Red Mountain Retail Group is in the initial planning phase and has not determined pricing or specific users for its commercial components. Residential As shown in Table 15, there are two smaller townhome projects and a condominium project approved and/or under construction near the Study Area. These are smaller builders who have yet to determine pricing or absorption. In addition to approved projects, there are two other proposed for-sale residential projects under staff review. Outside of the Study Area, a 43-unit residential project located on Washington Avenue near I-880 has been approved for construction. The developer plans to build a mix of detached and attached for-sale units. Office A single commercial project planned within the Study Area, Creekside Plaza plans to begin construction on Phase III, a 52,000 square foot addition to the existing office development. The developer anticipates rents of approximately $2.95 per square foot per month, full service. While the Redevelopment Agency initially assisted in the sale of the land and the development of the parking structure at Creekside Plaza, the developer plans to construct the final phase without Agency support. As stated earlier, Creekside Plaza has performed well to date, commanding premium lease rates for the area with better than anticipated office absorption. 16

25 Market Demand Estimates This chapter provides a range of future demand for each land use under consideration, along with supportable square feet and acres in the Study Area. Demand estimates referred to in this chapter are included as Appendix D. Residential Demand Marketers and researchers have identified rising demand for urban housing across the U.S. The trend is occurring as more buyers and renters have rediscovered urban centers, whether to reduce their commute or to have better access to retail goods and cultural experiences not available in suburban locations. Immigrant population increases are also contributing to this trend. In 1998, the Brookings Institute found a back to the city trend occurring within cities downtowns, and subsequent analysis by the U.S. Census found that of the 20 largest cities in the U.S., 16 gained population between 1990 and 2000, reversing trends of population loss in earlier decades. 21 Researchers have found that households attracted to urban infill housing include young singles, childless couples, empty nesters, and the elderly. Current housing market conditions in the Study Area suggest strong demand for new housing units. Most home sales at present are for resales of existing older units, with very limited new construction in San Leandro. Nearby in downtown Hayward, as well as elsewhere throughout the Bay Area s older suburban communities, multifamily housing units offered as for-sale condominiums have been experiencing strong sale prices and absorption, particularly if located near urban amenities such as shopping and transit. Market segments that will be attracted to Study Area housing units include: First Time Homebuyers. Detached single-family housing is becoming increasingly out of reach for first-time homebuyers. According to the DataQuick Real Estate News, the median sales price for a single-family home in Alameda County was approximately $575,000 in December This is an increase of approximately 16 percent from the previous year. The result is entry-level buyers are pursuing more affordable condominium units throughout the Bay Area region. Condominium projects in San Leandro are poised to capture a portion of this entry-level housing demand. Home prices in San Leandro remain well above $500,000 for entry level single-family units, making condominiums an attractive investment for first-time homebuyers. Empty Nesters. In addition, empty nesters and other affluent households are showing an increasing preference for the convenience offered by condominium units, creating increased demand for luxury condominiums. Analysts are anticipating that in future years, many aging baby boomers may opt for urban luxury apartment units as well, preserving prior home equity for retirement or other purposes. Seniors. A large segment of the Study Area s condominium demand is likely to be among San Leandro s sizeable senior homeowner population, which accounts for approximately one-fifth of all households (owner and renter) within the City. Moreover, ABAG anticipates substantial growth in 21 Downtown Rebound (Brookings Institution, 2000) 17

26 San Leandro s senior age cohort, at nearly double the rate of growth for the City population overall. A portion of these senior households are likely to downsize to smaller, more urban housing units to reduce the physical and financial burdens associated with owning a larger home and to situate closer to available retail amenities and public transportation. Commuters. Housing near transit will also attract a segment of Bay Area households seeking to reduce their commute distances and costs to the workplace. Increased traffic congestion combined with expensive parking have created a greater incentive for workers to use the BART system. Downtown Hayward, Rockridge, North Berkeley, Pleasant Hill, and West Oakland are all examples of housing markets that have experienced increased demand from homebuyers that prefer locations that provide shorter and less expensive commutes. With its close proximity to BART, Downtown San Leandro is poised to capture a segment of this market. Study Area Demand Estimates Potentially supportable development was calculated for the Study Area based on ABAG projections for the Study Area, as well as a potential directed policy that would to promote transit-oriented development (see Appendix D). The lower end of the demand estimate range is based on existing ABAG household growth projections within the Study Area. Under this estimate, the Study Area could support 1,140 new housing units through Most of these units are likely to be for-sale in the near term, as the economics of home prices compared to rental rates continue to bring higher profit margins in for-sale projects. At an average density of 35 dwelling units an acre, approximately 30 acres would be needed to accommodate this level of residential development. If the average density were 60 dwelling units per acre, approximately 19 acres would be needed to accommodate 1,140 new housing units. A directed policy demand estimate assumes the implementation of a Transit Oriented Development Strategy that seeks to capture a greater share of regional development in the Study Area, with appropriate plans and zoning to accommodate increased development. Under this scenario, the Study Area is assumed to capture three percent of countywide growth, supporting up to 1,450 housing units by 2015 and approximately a total of 2,300 new housing units by This translates into approximately 65 acres at an average overall density of 35 units per acre or 33 acres at 60 units per acre of new housing over 15 years. Housing Types and Locations The Study Area can support a mix of housing types, including multi-story condominiums, mixed-use residential condominiums, townhomes, and live/work units. This type of development would serve to increase housing choices in San Leandro, helping to attract new residents, as well as allow existing residents to stay within the community as their lifestyle needs change. Mixed-use development is appropriate on numerous opportunity sites (see following section of this report) including the City s existing parking lot on East 14 th Street, the Longs Drugs and adjacent parking lot on East 14 th and Davis Streets, and an existing retail site at Washington Avenue and Williams Street. In addition, new highdensity housing can be included in mixed-use projects near San Leandro Boulevard and on Alvarado. 18

27 Office Demand While the Study Area has a sizeable supply of available professional office space, the Study Area has little premier office space offering modern amenities and larger floor plates available for lease. Historically, office space in Downtown San Leandro has predominantly been for small professional office users. However, recent development of Creekside Plaza provides evidence of potential demand from larger tenants. The Study Area s accessibility from both BART and the proposed Bus Rapid Transit line make it a desirable location for public agencies and businesses whose employees and clients seek access to transit services. Study Area Demand Estimates Similar to the housing demand estimate, this Market Assessment provides a range of estimated future supportable demand based on ABAG projections and a directed policy demand estimate, assuming an increased share of regional demand resulting from strategic planning and implementation. As shown in Table 17, the low end of the estimated range of demand assumes the Study Area will capture ABAG s projected financial and professional service employment growth and approximately one-quarter of the projected health, education, and recreational services employment growth. Under this scenario, the Study Area could support approximately 170,000 square feet of new office space by 2015 and a total of approximately 280,000 square feet by Assuming a floor area ratio (FAR) of 2.0, approximately three acres would accommodate total office demand through Assuming an FAR of 3.0, approximately two acres would be sufficient to accommodate office demand through The available and approved supply of office in the Study Area may absorb a portion of this demand, further reducing the amount of office land necessary to accommodate new office demand in the Study Area. Under the higher end of the estimated range, assuming a directed policy approach, the Study Area would capture approximately half of project citywide employment growth in the financial and professional services employment sector and one-fifth of the projected citywide growth in health, education, and recreational services employment. This outcome would result in significantly more potential support for new office development. By 2015, the Study Area could support approximately 400,000 additional square feet of office space on three to five acres of land; 23 and by 2020, the Study Area could support approximately 600,000 additional square feet of office space on five to seven acres of land. 24 Again, some of the new office demand may be absorbed by the existing available and approved supply. 22 Floor Area Ratio (FAR) is the amount of building constructed compared to the amount of land it is built on. For example, a 10,000 square foot lot with an FAR of 2.0 would have 20,000 square feet of building space. If including area circulation, set-backs, and surface parking, the site may be four to five stories tall, depending on a number of factors including the type of parking (e.g. structure, underground, or surface). A building with an FAR of 3.0 would vary from five to eight stories tall with parking and set-back requirements playing an important role in the height of the building. 23 See Table 17. The three-acre assumption uses an FAR calculation of 3.0 and the five-acre assumption uses an FAR calculation of The five-acre assumption uses an FAR calculation of 3.0 and the seven-acre assumption uses an FAR calculation of

28 Office Types and Locations Administrative office (back office) and larger office users are excellent candidates for sites near the San Leandro BART Station, similar to Creekside Plaza. Mixed-use projects with smaller office spaces, potentially offered as for-sale commercial condominiums, will also be supported by future employment growth. For example, this type of demand could include relocating BART parking onto the vacant parcel at Alvarado Street and building a larger mixed-use office, condominium, and retail development at the BART parking lot at West Juana Avenue and San Leandro Boulevard. 25 Another potential location is the City s south parking lot on East 14 th Street, which could include a mixture of ground floor retail, office, and condominiums. Retail Demand Downtown San Leandro reflects a relatively stable retail market with few available properties within the Study Area. Still, lease rates remain relatively low and do not currently justify new construction. Increasing the number of new households in the Study Area combined with increased day-time activity from more Downtown employees can generate new retail demand. Study Area Demand Estimates As shown in Table 18, if the City met the projected demand for new office space and residential units, retail demand would increase by roughly 35,000 square feet under the lower end of the estimated range and 71,000 square feet under the directed policy demand estimate by Much of this projected demand is assumed to be local-serving, for residents living in nearby neighborhoods, new residents in the projected housing units in the Study Area, and the increased day-time worker population. Overall, new housing and employment growth would increase Study Area retail expenditures by $10.4 million to $21.2 million based on the range of demand estimates. Portions of this additional retail demand could be accommodated in larger mixed-use developments that would include ground floor retail. Retail Types and Locations The types of retail that may be attracted to Downtown San Leandro include merchants offering moderately priced and more expensive specialty merchandise, such as a bookstore with new books and digital media and home furnishings (e.g., lighting and furniture). The Study Area may also have potential for additional restaurants and outdoor cafes, especially those offering a fast casual menu such as Pasta Pomodoro or higher quality prepared foods. Additional research at the time of project development will be necessary to identify specific feasible tenants with a strong match to local demographics. High traffic areas both auto and pedestrian present the most viable location for retail. Therefore, East 14 th Street, Davis Street, and San Leandro Boulevard have the most potential for additional retail space. To provide appropriate densities and create additional activity in the Study Area, new retail should be integrated into larger mixed-use projects where feasible. Specific opportunity sites include the Albertsons property, the northwest block of Davis Street and East 14 th Street, and, potentially, a small retail component in a mixed-use project near BART on San Leandro Boulevard. 25 Note that a series of development feasibility analyses to test the economic feasibility of potential projects in the Study Area will be conducted as part of the second phase of the San Leandro Downtown TOD Strategy. 20

29 Development Opportunity Sites Potential Opportunity Sites The Existing Conditions Report identified 26 major possible opportunity sites in the Study Area totaling approximately 67 acres. These generally are larger properties in the Downtown or near the BART Station. The Market Assessment performed additional opportunity site analysis that reviewed smaller sites and properties north of San Leandro Creek, providing an expanded evaluation of development opportunities within the Study Area. BAE conducted additional site analysis using a technique known as Improvement-to-Land Ratio (I/L Ratio) analysis. This approach identifies properties for which the current assessed value of the land is greater than the value of the built improvements, indicating underutilization of the parcel. For the Study Area analysis, parcels with a land value at least two times improvement value were identified and confirmed through a windshield inspection, yielding 11 additional development opportunity sites for a combined total of approximately 73 acres. 26 Among the additional opportunity sites identified was City Hall s southern parking lot. The total list of potential development opportunity sites is summarized in Table 18 and on Figure 3, both included in Appendix E. Overall, the opportunity sites have the potential to stimulate economic development and encourage a more active, pedestrian-friendly Downtown. Many of the sites in the Downtown core are suitable for mixed-use development with a combination of residential and commercial uses, while other sites will be better suited for office and other types of development. While not all sites are expected to attract new development in the next several years, many have excellent short- to mid-term potential. The following section focuses on the three primary clusters of opportunity sites in the Study Area and suggests potential development scenarios. Small Infill Sites Many of the smaller infill opportunity sites are interspersed and have multiple owners. These smaller infill parcels can be an impediment to redevelopment as developers are often unwilling to invest significant time and expense to assemble numerous small parcels. Sites 30, 33, 34, and 37 are examples of small infill opportunity sites. BART Station Area Development Opportunity Sites Clustered around the San Leandro BART Station are several opportunity sites with excellent potential for transit-supportive land uses. Most notable in this area are Sites 6, 24, 25, and 26. Whether considered together or separately, these sites present excellent opportunities to create mixed-use development consistent with BART s objectives for promotion of transit-oriented development at its stations. Currently, surface parking for BART is found on Sites 25 and 26 directly adjacent to the Station. One alternative for replacement parking would be to accommodate it in structured parking on Site 24, 25, 26 The opportunity site analysis is a preliminary survey of properties with potential for development. These sites will be further reviewed by the Citizen Advisory Committee. 21

30 and/or 26. This would open development potential at Site 17 (BART parking lot), a key parcel along San Leandro Boulevard with significant potential for residential and commercial mixed-use development. Redevelopment of Site 17 would have potential to catalyze development on nearby parcels, including Sites 19 and 20 and could help to strengthen the link between Downtown and the BART station. Downtown San Leandro Development Opportunity Sites Within the Downtown area, particularly around the intersection of East 14 th and Davis Streets, there are a number of development opportunities (see Appendix E). These include Site 29, which is a publicly owned parking lot currently used by City employees. The City could replace this surface parking lot with structured parking on the surface parking lot on the north side of City hall. Situated near a single-family residential development and along a busy transit corridor, Site 29 offers excellent potential for mediumdensity residential or mixed-use residential/commercial development. Located near City Hall, redevelopment of Site 29 could help to catalyze development farther north on East 14 th Street, including at Sites 27 and 28. Site 10, which currently contains a City-owned parking structure, presents an interesting development opportunity. If enlarged to accommodate additional spaces, the parking structure at this site could free up additional development potential on nearby sites, including Sites 8 and 9. These sites occupy one of the most prominent corners in San Leandro at the intersection of East 14 th Street and Davis Street and are key sites in establishing the identity of Downtown. North of Davis Street / West of San Leandro Boulevard Development Opportunity Sites The northwest portion of the Study Area includes a cluster of parcels that presents an important development opportunity. Together, Sites 1, 2, 3, and 4 account for almost 14 acres. Current uses include low-density residential, offices for World Savings, F.H. Dailey auto dealership, the future Friends of the Creek Education Center, and vacant land. Only one to two blocks from the BART station, these sites offer excellent locations for residential and/or office uses should existing uses propose to relocate or intensify. The use of structured parking at these sites as well as building configurations that offer a strong street presence will be key elements to encourage a pedestrian-friendly environment that is conducive to transit ridership. Summary of Demand Compared to Development Potential A directed policy demand estimate would require capacity for approximately 40 to 70 acres of land, depending on the building intensity. This assumes a commercial floor area range of 2.0 to 3.0 and an average density of 35 dwelling units to 60 dwelling units per acre. 27 The Study Area opportunity site analysis identified approximately 73 acres. Overall, the available supply of opportunity sites would be able to accommodate the higher end of the demand estimate range assuming 27 An overall average density of 35 dwelling units per acre in a planning area generally translates into a mix of townhomes and three- and four-story buildings built above ground level parking, but it may also include mid-rise buildings. An overall average density of 60 dwelling units per acre translates into a mix of three- to four-story buildings and mid-rise or higher buildings. 22

31 residential building densities averaged 35 dwelling units per acre and commercial uses averaged a FAR of 2.0. Although area market demand and economics present the opportunity to increase building densities within the Study Area, there remain impediments to TOD. Landowner property value expectations, suburban parking standards, and competition from higher traffic commercial corridors have all likely constrained higher density development within the Study Area. There is a sizeable inventory of vacant Class B and Class C office space in and near Downtown. And, while retail demand is relatively strong, many tenants are individual establishments that may be unable to support significantly higher lease rates. City efforts to reduce parking standards, consolidate parking supply to parking structures, and assemble property for development are actions that can help capture market support for transit-oriented development. As the TOD Strategy planning progresses, these feasibility factors will be analyzed for prototype projects within the Study Area. 23

32 101st E Russet Jean 100th Frederick C 103rd Robledo Leonard Timothy 102nd Acalanes Novelda Estepa Maria Moorpark Arthur Midway 880 Oakland 105th C atron Virginia Pearson Blenheim Douglas Arthur Gilmore 102nd 106th 107th Apricot Amber Reva Kelly Valley Dorchester Iris Pierce Park San LeandroBelleview San Leandro Wainwright Franklin Appendix A: Census Tracts and Block Groups UV 61 Pierce 104th Graffian Preda Bristol Suffolk Bowling Green Minerva Lucille Navy Gardner Pontiac Lexington Pershing Peralta Dabner Aileen 105th Davis 104th Park Davis Pacific Wayne Muir Junior High School Pacific UV 185 Farrelly Broadmoor Lola Legend Pontiac Stoakes Garcia Belleview Leo Antonio UV 61 Stoakes Orchard Seeley Dolly Eveleth Breed Stratford Alvarado Williams 106th Cambridge Castro 107th Sunnyside Harlan Beverly Euclid Alvarado Breed Georgia Begier Carpentier 108th Martinez Beverly 109th Warwick Haas Dutton 14th Washington Parrott Clarke San Leandro Durant Broadmoor Dowling Harlan Callan Estudillo Joaquin Estabrook Marina Myers Kenilworth Arbor Castro Washington Loquat Cherry Hollister Victoria Melven Merle Dutton Oakes Begier Haas Pala Lee Callan Santa Maria Eastbrook Hudson Herma Glen Cornwall Savoy Macarthur Victoria Bancroft Middle Sch Bancroft Chetland Helen San Jose Blackpool Warren Mckinley Elemen 14th Estudillo Dolores Maud Elsie Sybil Alice Gill Cary Croyden Mitchell Joaquin Rose Rodney Juana 135th UV 1 Block Groups Used in Analysis Tracts Used in Analysis Study Area Boundary Interstate Highway Major Road Local Road Ramp Park or Recreational Area Educational Institution San Leandro Creek Oakland/San Leandro City Line Railroad/BART Miles

33 Appendix B: Demographic and Economic Data Table 1: Population and Household Trends Study Area (a) Annual Growth Population 9,878 10, % Households 4,303 4, % Avg. Household Size % Median Age 38.9 Household Type Family 51.8% Non-Family 48.2% Household Tenure Renter 61.0% Owner 39.0% City of San Leandro Annual Growth Population 79,452 81, % Households 30,642 30, % Avg. Household Size % Median Age 37.7 Household Type Family 64.7% Non-Family 35.3% Household Tenure Renter 39.3% Owner 60.7% Alameda County Annual Growth Population 1,443,741 1,484, % Households 523, , % Avg. Household Size % Median Age 34.5 Household Type Family 64.8% Non-Family 35.2% Household Tenure Renter 45.3% Owner 54.7% Notes: (a) The Study Area comprises Block Groups 1 through 5 of Tract 4326, Block Group 3 of Tract 4322, and Block Group 3 of Tract Sources: US Census, 2000; Claritas, Inc. 2006; Bay Area Economics,

34 Table 2: Household Size, 2000 Study Area (a) City of San Leandro Alameda County Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Persons in Household 1 person 1, % 8, % 136, % 2 persons 1, % 9, % 157, % 3 persons % 4, % 87, % 4 persons % 3, % 75, % 5 persons % 1, % 35, % 6 persons % % 16, % 7 or more persons % % 15, % Total 4, % 30, % 523, % Average Household Size Note: (a) Study Area comprises all Block Groups of Tract 4326, Block Group 3 of Tract 4322, and Block Group 3 of Tract Source: U.S. Census, 2000; Bay Area Economics, Table 3: Age Distribution, 2000 Study Area (a) City of San Leandro Alameda County Age Range Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Under 18 1, % 17, % 354, % % 6, % 138, % , % 12, % 241, % , % 13, % 248, % , % 10, % 200, % % 6, % 112, % 65 and older 1, % 12, % 147, % Totals 9, % 79, % 1,443, % Median Age Note: (a) Study Area comprises all Block Groups of Tract 4326, Block Group 3 of Tract 4322, and Block Group 3 of Tract Sources: US Census, 2000; Claritas, Inc. 2006; Bay Area Economics,

35 Table 4: Tenure by Age of Householder, 2000 Study Area (a) City of San Leandro Alameda County Owner-Occupied Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Householder 15 to 24 years % % 2, % Householder 25 to 34 years % 1, % 30, % Householder 35 to 44 years % 3, % 70, % Householder 45 to 54 years % 3, % 73, % Householder 55 to 64 years % 2, % 46, % Householder 65 years and older % 6, % 63, % Total Households 1, % 18, % 286, % Renter-Occupied Householder 15 to 24 years % % 22, % Householder 25 to 34 years % 3, % 71, % Householder 35 to 44 years % 3, % 59, % Householder 45 to 54 years % 2, % 40, % Householder 55 to 64 years % 1, % 18, % Householder 65 years and older % 1, % 25, % Total Households 2, % 12, % 237, % Note: (a) Study Area comprises Block Groups 1 through 5 of Tract 4326, Block Group 3 of Tract 4322, and Block Group 3 of Tract Source: U. S. Census, 2000; Bay Area Economics, Table 5: Household Income Distribution, 2005 (a) Study Area (a) San Leandro Alameda County Income Range Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Less than $15, % 2, % 55, % $15,000 - $24, % 2, % 39, % $25,000 - $34, % 2, % 41, % $35,000 - $49, % 4, % 66, % $50,000 - $74,999 1, % 6, % 95, % $75,000 - $99, % 4, % 73, % $100,000 - $149, % 4, % 89, % $150,000 - $249, % 1, % 50, % $250,000 - $499, % % 12, % $500,000 or more % % 5, % Total Households 4, % 30, % 531, % Median Household Income $50,737 $61,161 $66,218 Per Capita Income $28,229 $28,192 $31,331 Notes: (a) Study Area comprises all Block Groups of Tract 4326, Block Group 3 of Tract 4322, and Block Group 3 of Tract Sources: US Census, 2000; Claritas, Inc. 2006; Bay Area Economics,

36 Table 6: Educational Attainment, 2000 (a) Study Area (b) San Leandro County Highest Educational Level Reached Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Less than 9th grade % 4, % 76, % 9th to 12th grade, no diploma 1, % 6, % 91, % High school graduate 1, % 14, % 181, % Some college, no degree 1, % 13, % 206, % Associate degree % 3, % 64, % Bachelor's degree 1, % 9, % 202, % Graduate or professional degree % 3, % 130, % Total 7, % 55, % 953, % High school graduate or higher 5, % 45, % 785, % Bachelor's degree or higher 1, % 12, % 332, % Notes: (a) Data refers to the population age 25 and older. (b) Study Area data for all Block Groups of Tract 4326, Block Group 3 of Tract 4322, and Block Group 3 of Tract 4323 Source: U.S. Census, 2000; Bay Area Economics, Table 7: Employed Residents by Occupation, 2000 (a) Study Area (b) City of San Leandro Alameda County Employed Employed Employed Occupation Residents % Residents % Residents % Management, professional, and related 1,455 31% 12,393 33% 293,312 42% Service % 4,437 12% 82,773 12% Sales and office 1,502 32% 11,983 32% 182,205 26% Farming, fishing, and forestry 0 0% 69 0% 1,065 0% Construction, extraction, & maintenance % 3,251 9% 51,816 7% Production, transportation, and material moving % 5,696 15% 81,662 12% Total 4, % 37, % 692, % Percent Employed Residents (of Total Residents) 48% 48% 48% Notes: (a) Data represents the civilian population age 16 and older. (b) Study Area comprises all Block Groups of Tract 4326, Block Group 3 of Tract 4322, and Block Group 3 of Tract 4323 Source: U.S. Census, 2000; Bay Area Economics,

37 Table 8: Population and Household Projections, 2005 to 2020 (a) Study Area (b) Change Total Population 14,147 16, % Households 5,925 7, % Population by Age Number Percent Number Percent 19 years and under 3, % 3, % 19.6% years 5, % 5, % -5.5% years 3, % 5, % 49.1% 65 and over 2, % 2, % 36.3% Totals 14, % 16, % City of San Leandro (c) Change Total Population 83,706 92, % Households 31,833 35, % Population by Age Number Percent Number Percent 19 years and under 20, % 22, % 9.2% years 30, % 27, % -10.4% years 20, % 25, % 28.2% 65 and over 12, % 16, % 33.2% Totals 83, % 92, % Alameda County Change Total Population 1,517,100 1,714, % Households 542, , % Population by Age Number Percent Number Percent 19 years and under 396, % 422, % 6.6% years 605, % 554, % -8.5% years 360, % 471, % 30.8% 65 and over 154, % 266, % 72.0% Totals 1,517, % 1,714, % Notes: (a) Projections from Projections 2005, Association of Bay Area Governments. (b) Study Area comprises the following U.S. Census tracts: , , & This geography differs slightly from those used in other tables. (c) San Leandro city limits are approximated with the following U.S. Census tracts: 4321, 4322, 4323, 4324, 4325, 4326, 4327, 4328, 4330, 4331, 4331, , 4334, 4335, and Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2005; Bay Area Economics,

38 Table 9: Jobs by Industry, 2000 (a) Study Area (b) City of San Leandro (c) Alameda County Industry Jobs Percent Jobs Percent Jobs Percent Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining % % 1, % Construction % 3, % 42, % Manufacturing % 7, % 100, % Wholesale trade % 3, % 33, % Retail trade % 6, % 76, % Transportation and warehousing, and utilities % 2, % 42, % Information % 1, % 25, % Finance, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing % 1, % 38, % Professional, scientific, management, and administrative % 3, % 93, % Educational, health and social services 1, % 5, % 128, % Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services % 1, % 40, % Other services (except public administration) % 2, % 30, % Public administration % % 26, % Total 5, % 40, % 681, % Notes: (a) Data refers to the civilian population age 16 and older (b) Study Area Comprises the following U.S. Census tracts: , , & This geography differrs slightly from that used in other tables with Block Groups. (c) San Leandro city limits are approximated with the following U.S. Census tracts: 4321, 4322, 4323, 4324, 4325, 4326, 4327, 4328, 4330, , , 4332, 4333, 4334, 4335, and Source: U.S. Census, 2000; Bay Area Economics,

39 Table 10: Employment Projections, 2005 to 2020 (a) Study Area (b) Change Number Percent Number Percent Agriculture, Natural Resources % % -2.2% Manufacturing, Wholesale, Transportation % % 49.2% Retail % 1, % 26.8% Financial & Professional Service 1, % 2, % 31.9% Health, Education, Recreational Service 2, % 3, % 42.7% Other % 1, % 32.0% Total 6, % 8, % 36.0% City of San Leandro (c) Change Number Percent Number Percent Agriculture, Natural Resources % % 0.0% Manufacturing, Wholesale, Transportation 13, % 16, % 19.6% Retail 7, % 9, % 27.6% Financial & Professional Service 6, % 8, % 31.5% Health, Education, Recreational Service 9, % 13, % 36.3% Other 4, % 6, % 23.9% Total 42, % 54, % 27.1% Alameda County Change Number Percent Number Percent Agriculture, Natural Resources 1, % 1, % -0.2% Manufacturing, Wholesale, Transportation 178, % 208, % 16.4% Retail 83, % 107, % 29.2% Financial & Professional Service 149, % 195, % 30.6% Health, Education, Recreational Service 225, % 306, % 36.0% Other 108, % 133, % 23.2% Total 747, % 953, % 27.5% Notes: (a) Projections from Projections 2005, Association of Bay Area Governments. (b) Study Area comprises the following U.S. Census tracts: , , & This geography differs slightly from those used in other tables. (c) San Leandro city limits are approximated with the following U.S. Census tracts: 4321, 4322, 4323, 4324, 4325, 4326, 4327, 4328, 4330, 4331, 4331, , 4334, 4335, and Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2005; Bay Area Economics,

40 Appendix C: Real Estate Market Information 32

41 Table 11: San Leandro Downtown and Vicinity Office Space Comparables Total Available Occupancy Monthly Lease Type of Units Name & Address Space Space Rate Rates/Sq. Ft. Parking Existing Tenants With Most Demand Comments 444 Estudillo Avenue 3,520 1,280 64% $1.40 Small lot Accountants, bookkeepers, Units located Two units available Full Service private conservator downstairs 477 Callen 3,700 1,700 54% $ spaces off street Real estate company, Units located Full Service Approx. 2.2 spaces/1,000 sf accountant downstairs Bancroft 22, % $1.09 $30/reserved space Medical offices, real estate Units located NA 52 spots downstairs Approx. 2.4 Space/ 1,000 SF 525 Estudillo Avenue 5,300 1, % $1.50 Approx. 3 Spaces/ Insurance, general office N/A Full Service 1,000 SF 444 Joaquin Avenue 5,524 1,292 77% $2.10 Parking lot and Dentist N/A Full Service below ground 101 Callan Avenue 43,000 17,226 60% $1.45 City owned garage next Pediatrician, nurse training, Full Service door, $55 unreserved, architect, medical billing, real $75 reserved/month/stall estate and retail on ground floor Davis Street 9,640 9,640 0% $ Spaces/1,000 SF N/A N/A New construction, will break Industrial Gross ground soon 303 W Joaquin Avenue 13,500 1,451 89% $1.65 On site, some covered Accountant, attorney, window offices Full Service administrative E 14th Street 15,177 12,684 16% $2.25 On site Medical and general office front end Industrial Gross 1057 MacArthur Blvd 7,775 1,500 81% $ spaces Starbucks, Backyard BBQ, Smaller office spaces, New building, completed March (Evergreen Plaza, New) Modified Net Approx. 1.7 Spaces/ real estate office, software, private offices 2006, Visible from 580, 1,000 SF engineering office Landlord maintains roof, outside areas, and HVAC 500 Davis Street Bldg. B 204,682 50, % of built $2.85-$ spaces/1,000 sf Tri-Net, Alameda County NA Not yet under construction, Creekside Plaza space Full Service Phase III, plans to start in June (50,025 sf in undeveloped phase) Office Space for Sale Total Avail. Occupancy Asking Existing or Previous Buyer Name & Address SF Space Rate Price Parking Tenants Interest Comments Washington Office 1,550 1,550 0% $465,000 7 parking spaces Photographer, attorney Dentist, dance studio, One offer made. Seller was not Building $300/SF 4.5/1000 SF Current leases children's school, dog willing to meet demand of 2275 Washington per month grooming company removing security wall E. 14th Street 10, % $2,500,000 lot Asian well-being Medical offices Indoor swimming pool $232/SF health care, bath house 433 Estudillo Avenue 30,000 8,100 73% $150,000 to 4.8/1000 SF Medical, dental, health Medical and general Office condos for sale (550 SF Office Condiminium Conversion $577,000 related, general office, office to 2,000 SF) five sold, two in $260 - $275/SF financial planners, etc. escrow, currently selling units Current $2.25/sf per mo with leasing tenants. Source: BAE, 2006.

42 Table 12: San Leandro Downtown and Vicinity Retail Comparables Available Lease Year Total Square Rate CAM Occupancy Name & Address Built Square Feet Feet (NNN) Charges Parking Rate Tenants Comments East 14th Street 1970's 3,000 3,000 $2.50 N/A street 0% N/A Two spaces available at Blossom NNN 159 Parrot 1960's 2,400 2,400 $1.50 N/A lot and street 0% Englanders, title company, Space can be used for retail or office Plowmans, Cleaners, gym, jewelry store 1332 East 14th Street 1960's 1,759 1,759 $1.50 N/A lot and street 0% Citibank, art supply store, Space can be used for retail or office jewelry store Bayfair Center ,238 30,000 $ 1.50 $ 0.83 lot 96% Macy's, Target, and Movie Some spaces have been vacant for a while th Street $ 2.25 $ 1.17 Theatre because of renovation planning. Upstairs have a lot of vacant space because they don't meet the city parking requirements and cannot lease space. Macy's and Target own their space. Total square footage includes detached movie theater. Retail Space for Sale Total Occupancy Asking Existing Name & Address Square Footage Rate Price Lease Parking Existing Tenants Comments th Avenue 2,800 0% $650,000 N/A lot in back Would not disclose $232/SF 275 Joaquin Ave 2, % $850,000 $ spaces Joaquin Deli, owner's business Two Units Available (downstairs and $373/SF upstairs) Source: BAE, 2006.

43 Table 13: San Leandro Home Sales in ½ Mile Study Area, March 2005 through February 2006 (a) ONE TWO THREE FOUR + ALL UNITS (b) ALL UNITS BEDROOM BEDROOM BEDROOM BEDROOM Number % of Number Number Number Number of Units Total of Units of Units of Units of Units Less than $299, % $300,000 to $349, % $350,000 to $399, % $400,000 to $449, % $450,000 to $499, % $500,000 to $549, % $550,000 to $599, % $600,000 to $649, % $650,000 to $699, % $700,000 to $749, % $750,000 to $799, % $800, % Total % All Units Median Sale Price $549,500 $286,000 $500,000 $640,000 $710,000 Average Sale Price $564,566 $287,286 $486,112 $627,167 $695,071 Avg. Square Feet (c) 1, ,198 1,637 1,982 Avg. Price per SF (c) $395 $379 $416 $392 $357 Average Number of Bathrooms Single Family Residences (d) Median Sale Price $588,500 $459,000 $527,000 $642,500 $710,000 Average Sale Price $611,970 $459,000 $541,125 $634,130 $697,431 Avg. Square Feet (c) 1, ,219 1,638 1,973 Avg. Price per SF (c) $412 $517 $457 $397 $357 Average Number of Bathrooms Condominiums (e) Median Sale Price $362,500 $273,000 $370,000 $510,000 Average Sale Price $360,866 $258,667 $375,836 $510,000 Avg. Square Feet (c) 1, ,135 1,874 Avg. Price per SF (c) $340 $356 $339 $272 Average Number of Bathrooms Duplexes (f) Median Sale Price $607,500 $545,000 $577,000 $630,000 Average Sale Price $609,167 $545,000 $575,400 $668,600 Avg. Square Feet (c) 1,741 1,557 1,580 2,034 Avg. Price per SF (c) $360 $350 $365 $358 Average Number of Bathrooms Notes: (a) Represents all full and verified SFR, Condominium, and Duplex sales in 1/2 Mile Study Area from March 4, 2005 to February 21, First American Real Estate Solutions provides property sales data by Thomas Brothers Guide Map Book boundaries. The boundaries approximate the Study Area boundaries (1/2 mile radius from East 14th Street and Davis Street). (b) Totals will not add due to lack of bedroom count data for 1 out of 202 total records. (c) Does not include records for which information on square footage was unavailable. (d) SFR data includes only one verified and full sale in the one-bedroom unit category (e) Condominium data includes only one verified and full sale in the three-bedroom unit category (f) Duplex data includes only two verified and full sales in the two-bedroom unit category and does not include any sales in the one-bedroom unit category Sources: First American Real Estate Solutions, March, 2005 to February, 2006; BAE, 2006.

44 Table 14: Overview of San Leandro Rental Market, Fourth Quarter 2005 CURRENT MARKET DATA (a): Percent Avg. Avg. Avg. Unit Type Number of Mix Sq. Ft. Rent Rent/Sq. Ft. Studio % 531 $816 $1.54 1BR/1BA 1, % 670 $906 $1.35 1BR Townhomes % 675 $1,014 $1.50 2BR/1BA % 829 $1,106 $1.33 2BR/1.5BA % 880 $1,077 $1.22 2BR/2BA % 947 $1,216 $1.28 2BR Townhomes % 1,012 $1,234 $1.22 3BR/1.5BA % 820 $1,195 $1.46 3BR/2BA % 1,020 $1,425 $1.40 3BR Townhomes % 1,225 $1,562 $1.28 Totals 4, % 764 $1,017 $1.33 AVERAGE RENT HISTORY (b): Unit Type Change 2005 Change Studio $788 $ % $ % 1 BR/1BA $842 $ % $ % 2 BR/1BA $965 $1, % $1, % 2 BR/2BA $1,125 $1, % $1, % 2BR Townhomes $1,055 $1, % $1, % 3 BR/2 BA $1,034 $1, % $1, % 3BR Townhomes $1,050 $1, % $1, % All $924 $1, % $1, % OCCUPANCY RATE: Average Year Occupancy % % % % % AGE OF HOUSING INVENTORY: Percent of Year Inventory Pre 1960's 22% 1960s 34% 1970s 25% 1980s 19% 1990s 0% 2000s 0% Notes: (a) Represents rental projects with 50 rental units or more. (b) Average rents represent current rental prices for years listed. Sources: RealFacts, Inc. 2006; Bay Area Economics, 2006.

45 Table 15: Recentlly Approved and Planned / Proposed Projects in San Leandro Project Address Product Mix/SF Status Timing Pricing Comments Mixed-Use Townhall Square (RDA Site) 120 Residential Preliminary In Planning Phase Unknown Property acquisition problems have stalled 10-15,000 SF retail Discussion development plans Units between 1,100-1,200 SF E. 14th Street (Albertsons Site) 60 Condominium units and Preliminary 2007 Range between Plans podium parking on existing Albertson's partial demolition of existing Discussion $450 - $550 per Building with supporting retail. Expects smaller retail building with additional square foot. grocer or drug store tenant in reconfigured ground floor retail. Albertson's building 311 MacArthur Blvd 14 rows homes Preliminary 2 single-family, detached Discussion ~5,000 SF retail Residential (For-Sale Single-Family Residences) 1537 Hays St 6 units, 3-story, detached Under Staff Review Did not disclose NA 915 Lewlling Blvd 6 units Approved NA NA Washington Avenue 43 units mix of attached Approved NA NA and detached units Residential (For Sale Multi-Family Residences) 641 MacArthur Blvd 8 Townhomes Approved NA NA attached and detached Warren Ave/497 Sybil 6 units (3, 2-story duplexes) Preliminary NA NA Properties back up to each other 2-story 4-plex Discussion applicant proposing to 'condo' each parcel Chumalia 11 For-Sale Approved NA NA Condominiums Toscani Place 9 Townhomes Under Construction August, 2006 Upper $600,000s Pre-marketing will begin in next few weeks, each 1103 Davis Street 3BR/3BA Still determining unit will include dedicated live/work space. interior units - 1,514sf Target demographic: younger, thirties, urban end units - 1,529sf lifestyle seekers, families looking for starter Office homes Davis and San Leandro 52,000SF Approved Construction to start in June $2.85 SF/month Phase 3 of three phase project (Phase 1 (Creekside Plaza) will be completed in 2007 Full Service and 2, 152,000SF built and leased) 4:1,000SF parking (free) Hesperian and 150th 5,000 SF Approved NA NA NA Source: Bay Area Economics, 2006.

46 Appendix D: Demand Estimates Table 16: Study Area Residential and Office Demand Estimates (2005 to 2020) RESIDENTIAL Residential Demand Estimate Acreage Demand New Unit Demand DU/Acre 2010 New Residential Demand ABAG Estimate(a) 220 Units Acres Directed Policy (b) 670 Units Acres 2015 New Residential Demand ABAG Estimate (a) 700 Units Acres Directed Policy (b) 1,450 Units Acres 2020 New Residential Demand ABAG Estimate (a) 1,140 Units Acres Directed Policy (b) 2,290 Units Acres OFFICE Office Demand Estimate Acreage Demand Square Foot Demand FAR 2010 New Office Demand ABAG Estimate (c) 60,000 SF Acres Directed Policy (d) 110,000 SF Acres 2015 New Office Demand ABAG Estimate (c) 146,000 SF Acres Directed Policy (d) 353,000 SF Acres 2020 New Office Demand ABAG Estimate (c) 243,000 SF Acres Directed Policy (d) 526,000 SF Acres Notes: (a) Assumes ABAG projected household growth from 2005 to 2020 within the Study Area. (b) Assumes the Study Area will capture three percent of Countywide projected household growth. (c) ABAG-based estimates assume only increased office demand from projected employment growth from the financial and professional sector and a quarter of projected growth in health, education, and recreation employment within the Study Area. Employment densities are estimated at 300 square feet per employee. Totals are rounded to the nearest thousand. (d) Directed policy assumes the Study Area will capture approximately half of Citywide projected employment growth within the financial services and professional sector as well as a one fifth of health, education, and recreational services employment growth. Employment densties are 300 square feet per employee. (e) All housing demand estimates are rounded to the nearest tenth and all office square foot demand is rounded to the nearest thousand. Sources: ABAG, Population, Employment, and Household Projections, 2005; Employment Density Study, SCAG, 2001; U.S. Census, 2000; BAE,

47 Table 17: Study Area Retail Demand Estimate (2005 to 2020) NEIGHBORHOOD RETAIL DEMAND New Office New Residential Total New Expenditures (c) Expenditures Expenditures 2010 New Retail Demand ABAG Estimate (a) $ 600,000 $ 1,540,000 $ 2,140,000 Directed Policy (b) $ 1,100,000 $ 4,690,000 $ 5,790, New Retail Demand ABAG Estimate (a) $ 1,460,000 $ 4,900,000 $ 6,360,000 Directed Policy (b) $ 3,530,000 $ 10,150,000 $ 13,680, New Retail Demand ABAG Estimate (a) $ 2,430,000 $ 7,980,000 $ 10,410,000 Directed Policy (b) $ 5,260,000 $ 16,030,000 $ 21,290, Retail Demand ABAG Estimate (a) Directed Policy (b) 2015 Retail Demand ABAG Estimate (a) Directed Policy (b) 2020 Retail Demand ABAG Estimate (a) Directed Policy (b) Square Foot Demand (e) 7,000 SF 19,000 SF 21,000 SF 46,000 SF 35,000 SF 71,000 SF Notes: (a) Based on ABAG-estimated employment growth. See Table 16. Uses average worker expenditures in suburban markets. Assumes average retail revenue of $300 per square foot. $300 per square foot are comparative healthy sales. For example, the national gross sales per square foot for a restaurant with liquour is approximately $275 per square foot. New residential units are assumed to average two persons per household with an average neighborhood retail expenditures of $7,000 per household per year. (b) Assumes directed policy employment and household growth using the same methodology for spending as above. projected retail expenditures. (c) All totals are rounded to the nearest thousand. Sources: ABAG, Population, Employment, and Household Projections, 2005; Day-Time, Near Place of Work Average Expenditures, ICSC, 2002; Employment Densities, SCAG, 2001; U.S. Census, 2000; BAE,

48 Appendix E: Opportunity Sites Table 18: Potential Development Opportunity Sites Site Acreage (a) Current Use (b) Vacant (World Savings), light industrial Residential, light manufacturing, vacant, parking, San Leandro Creek Vacant, auto dealership Office, Parking Retail, residential, light manufacturing Office, Parking Office, parking, open space Retail, parking Retail Parking, Pedestrian Courtyard Parking, Pedestrian Path Retail, parking, residential Vacant, retail, parking Retail, parking Parking Vacant parcel, vacant office Parking Civic/Institutional, St. Leander gym and playground Parking, retail Vacant, residential Vacant, light manufacturing, parking Parking, light manufacturing Parking, Light industrial Vacant Parking, civic/institutional Vacant, parking Restaurant Vacant Civic/institutional, parking Residential Residential Parking Retail, residential Service station, car wash (self-serve) Office, parking Retail Parking Total 73 Notes: (a) Acreage as reported was estimated using GIS, a digital mapping software, and may differ slightly from acreage as recorded by the Alameda County Tax Assessor. (b) For most sites, current use was determined by a site visit. In other cases, current use was determined using aerial photos and data provided in the Alameda County Tax Assessor's records. Sites may include more than one property owner, parcel, and subject to further discussion. Sources: BMS Design Group; Alameda County Tax Assessor; BAE,

49 Figure 3: Potential Development Opportunity Sites 41