Facts and Figures Office market Frankfurt am Main Q3 2017

Transcription

1 Facts and Figures Office market Frankfurt am Main Q3 217

2 The essence of knowledge is, having it, to apply it. Quote from Confucius If you require any further information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can put you in touch with our specialists who are always happy to provide you with expert support. We look forward to hearing from you! Dr. Konrad Kanzler Head of Research +49 () Radomir Vasilijevic Head of Office & Retail Letting +49 () Martin Angersbach Head of Business Development Office Germany +49 () Lenny Lemler Co-Head of Investment +49 ()

3 Market Environment Population development Frankfurt a. M. 76, 74, 72, 7, 68, 66, 64, 62, 6, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Inhabitants June 217: 736, Jun-17 Purchasing power per capita Germany and Frankfurt a. M. Purchasing power per capita Germany Purchasing power per capita Frankfurt a. M. Purchasing power per capita 217: Germany 22,239 / Frankfurt 25, Unemployment / employees subject to social insur. contribution 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Aug-17 Consumer price index Germany and Hesse Employees Frankfurt a. M. Unemployment rate Germany CPI Germany (base year: 21) CPI Hesse (base year: 21) CPI August 217: Germany 19.5 / Hesse 18.9 thereof tertiary sector Unemployment rate Frankfurt a. M Aug Source: Federal Statistical Office Source: State Statistical Office Hesse, Employment Agency Source: GfK GeoMarkting GmbH, Federal Statistical Office Source: City of Frankfurt a. M. The Frankfurt am Main metropolitan area continues to be characterised by significant population growth during 217. According to latest figures from the City of Frankfurt, the number of inhabitants stood at 736,222 on 3 June 217, representing an increase of 6,598 inhabitants or.9 % over the first half of the year. According to official city forecasts, the population is expected to exceed 75, by the end of 218, with the number of residents then passing the 8,-mark in 227. In line with the increasing population, the Frankfurt employment market also continues to show a consistently positive performance. Based on the latest update on 31 December 216, the number of employees that are subject to social insurance contributions increased by 1.8 % to 559,566 compared to the previous year. The rate of unemployment fell by a further.4 %-points by August 217 compared to the same month a year ago, and now stands at 5.8 %. At the same time, the shortage of skilled workers is proving to have a limiting effect on Frankfurt s economic development. According to the IHK Fachkräftereport 217 (report on skilled workers 217) published by the Frankfurt Chamber of Industry and Commerce (IHK), the economy in the state of Hesse currently faces a shortage of around 56, skilled employees. Even though a substantial decrease in overall demand is expected by 23, a far greater decline in skilled labour can be predicted. The supply shortage of skilled workers is therefore expected to reach 2, people by 23. The office-related consultancy and business services sectors currently face a shortage of 15, employees in Hesse, a number that is expected to rise to 49, by 23.

4 Market Data Take-up, vacancy, prime rent, average rent, prolongation 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Vacancy (in thousand) Take-up (in thousand) Prolongation after market screening (in thousand) Average take-up 1 years (in thousand) Prime rent (in /sqm) Average rent (in /sqm) ,95 sqm 1,79 sqm 1,59 sqm ,68 sqm 1,76 sqm 1,96 sqm ,52 sqm ,34sqm 1,316 sqm 1,251 sqm 1,246 sqm ,7 sqm sqm 547 sqm 51 sqm 35 sqm 472 sqm 427 sqm Q1-Q3 217 Frankfurt office market with prospect of second-best annual result The Frankfurt market for office space lettings including Eschborn and Offenbach-Kaiserlei was able to continue the very positive development of the previous two quarters. The period from July to September 217 represented the strongest third quarter of the past ten years, with space take-up by tenants and owner-occupiers of 183,9 sqm. This also represented a year-on-year increase of 45.1 % or 57,2 sqm. Space take-up for the first nine months of 217 amounted to 432,2 sqm, which exceeded the previous year s level by around a quarter. The Frankfurt office market is chasing new records, and for the full year will in all likelihood achieve the secondhighest space take-up volume since 2. Partly as a consequence of Brexit, large deals in particular will help generate above-average take-up for the fourth quarter of 217. Take-up according to location Q1-Q , 91,2 sqm 1, 65 Deals 8, 6, 4, 2, Total: 432,2 sqm 46,2 sqm 91 Deals 38,9 sqm 31,9 sqm 5 Deals 31,8 sqm 42 Deals 21,5 sqm 34 Deals 14,3 sqm 16,4 sqm 68 Deals 18 Deals 12,6 sqm 9,1 sqm 7,6 sqm 19 Deals 18 Deals 3 Deals 2, sqm 13 Deals 1,4 sqm 5 Deals 6 Deals 515 sqm 452 sqm 369 sqm 21 sqm 394 sqm 97 sqm 541 sqm 74 sqm 432 sqm 24 sqm ,3 sqm 143 Deals Bankenlage Westend Bahnhofsviertel Stadtmitte City West Messe Westhafen Nordend Bockenheim OF-Kaiserlei Eschborn Niederrad (Büro) Mertonviertelother locations

5 Market Data Take-up according to unit size Q1-Q3 217 Total 432,2 sqm 16, 152,1 sqm 14, 449 Deals 12, 1, 8, 73,4 sqm 71,6 sqm 71,4 sqm 6, 47 Deals 19 Deals 11 Deals 63,7 sqm 4 Deals 4, 2, < 1, sqm 1, - 2,5 sqm 2,51-5, sqm 5,1-1, sqm > 1, sqm Take-up according to rents Q1-Q3 217 Total: 398, sqm* 12, 19,6 sqm 114, sqm 1, 15 Deals 162 Deals 8, 58,4 sqm 57,6 sqm 6, 78 Deals 35 Deals 38,3 sqm 4, 68 Deals 2,1 sqm 2, 34 Deals < 1 1 < < 2 2 < < 3 3 *lettings only, no owner occupiers Take-up according to space quality Q1-Q % Total 432,2 sqm superior 31.2 % average 59.2 % ordinary Take-up according to industry Q1-Q3 217 Banking, Financial Services & Insurances 23.6 % 36.4 % Consulting, Marketing & Research Construction & Real Estate 12.2 % Communication & IT Law Firms, Notaries & Legal Services 8.2 % 1.4 % Others & n/a 9.2 % The two categories above 5, sqm have already registered especially strong growth in the first three quarters of the year. Take-up increased by 29.5 % yearon-year in the 5,1 1, sqm cluster, while in the 1,-sqm-plus cluster the volume grew by as much as %. The biggest deals in both the third quarter and the year to date include the owner-occupier purchase of the Main- Park (29-35 Kaiserleistraße) with approximately 27,5 sqm of office space by Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) and the lease contract for 14,4 sqm at Mainzer Landstraße by the City of Frankfurt am Main. The banking, financial services and insurance sector was again in first place in a ranking of the different office user groups, accounting for a volume of 12,1 sqm or a 23.6 % market share. The group comprising consulting, marketing and research was next in line with 52,9 sqm or a 12.2 % share, followed by the construction and real estate industry with 45,1 sqm or 1.4 % of the market. Due to the Helaba purchase, the superordinate location office centres gained further in significance and accounted for 2.5 % of take-up or 88,4 sqm in total (H1 217: 16.6 %). However, the Central Business District remained the most popular location with 236,4 sqm or a 54.7 % market share. Large lettings in high-priced project developments such as Omniturm or Four influenced rental prices in the third quarter of 217. Compared to the previous quarter, the average rent increased by.6/sqm to 2.1/sqm. The prime rent grew by.2/sqm to the current level of 39.2/sqm.

6 Office Locations Frankfurt a.m. Q3 217 We have divided the office market Frankfurt into the most important main locations and have colored them separately. In addition, every location is divided into the particular borough and identified with the corresponding apellation of site. Main Location Vacancy F-CBD 446,5 sqm F-WEST 53, sqm F-SOUTH 91,5 sqm F-NORTH 56,5 sqm F-EAST 46,2 sqm OFFICE CENTRES 375,9 sqm Total 1,7, sqm data as of * inclusive subletting spaces in comparison to pervious reports changed main locations edition: January 28 / Stadtvermessungsamt Frankfurt a. M., 28 Frankfurt am Main Airport Office stock Take up Average rent Prime rent 371,2 sqm 26,7 sqm 2./sqm 27./sqm

7 Office Locations Submarkets Office stock (sqm) vacancy (sqm) in % Ø-rent ( ) Prime rent ( ) Rentable objects 1. Höchst 189, 6, Eschborn-West 168,1 31, Eschborn-Süd 386,3 94, Eschborn-Ost 123,9 8, Sossenheim 87,3 6, Nied Rödelheim 115,5 22, Griesheim 16, City West 517,1 73, Gallus 58,3 16, Niederrad (Büro) 69,7 88, Niederrad (Stadt) 12, Gutleutviertel 138, Westhafen 88,1 11, Bahnhofsviertel 44, 46, Messe/Europaviertel 313,4 36, Bockenheim 311,2 22, Westend 658,6 92, Bankenlage 1,122,3 96, Stadtmitte 581,7 53, Nordend 126,7 13, City Ostend 226,3 2, Sachsenhausen 444,6 38, Oberrad 4, OF-Kaiserlei 239,8 33, Ostend-Ost 355,3 26, Bornheim 36, Riederwald/Fechenheim 226,4 1, Bergen-Enkheim 5,6 6, Seckbach 15, Eckenheim 13, Eschersheim 33, Nieder-Eschbach 138, 36, Mertonviertel 275,5 119, Heddernheim 1, Praunheim/Hausen 18, 16, Total (inclusive other locations) 11,371, 1,7,

8 Market Data Geographical localisation of large-scale lettings Q1-Q3 217 accor. to size categories (> 1, sqm) Lettings according to size > 1, sqm - 2,5 sqm > 2,5 sqm - 5, sqm > 5, sqm - 1, sqm >1, sqm Geographical localisation of office spaces completions 217 accor. to size categories (> 1, sqm) Office space completion according to size > 1, sqm - 5, sqm > 5, sqm - 1, sqm > 1, sqm - 2, sqm > 2, sqm

9 Market Data Vacancy according to vacancy size Q , 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Total: 1,7, sqm (417 sub-properties), occupied within three months Vacancy Take-up Q1-Q ,4 sqm 199 (sub-)properties 161,8 sqm 99 (sub-)properties 29,2 sqm 61 (sub-)properties 274,3 sqm 4 (sub-)properties 344,8 sqm 18 (sub-)properties 152,1 sqm 73,4 sqm 71,6 sqm 71,4 sqm 63,7 sqm < 1, sqm 1, - 2,5 sqm 2,51-5, sqm 5,1-1, sqm > 1, sqm Vacancy according to asking rent Q , 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Total: 1,7, sqm (417 sub-properties), occupied within three months* Vacancy Take-up Q1-Q ,5 sqm 7 (sub-)properties 463,1 sqm 148 (sub-)properties 178,7 sqm 99 (sub-)properties 2,1 sqm 19,6 sqm 114, sqm 13,4 sqm 18, sqm 75,9 sqm 42 (sub-)properties 35 (sub-)properties 23 (sub-)properties 38,3 sqm 58,4 sqm 57,6 sqm < 1 1 < < 2 2 < < 3 3 *average asking rent of all spaces per property Vacancy according to quality of space Q3 217 Completions 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Total: 1,7, sqm (417 subproperties), occupied within three months superior average ordinary Completions 8,1 sqm 9,2 sqm thereof rentable (before completion) 157,4 sqm 17,7 sqm 3,5 sqm 49,9 sqm 11,5 sqm 27.2 % 35,5 sqm 19.2 % ,2 sqm 32,6 sqm 98,7 sqm 7,4 sqm 53.6 % 12,5 sqm 27,2 sqm No office properties of any significance were completed in the third quarter of 217, while in contrast around 18, sqm was removed from the market and converted into residential space. As a result, office stock declined to million sqm at the end of Q In the year as a whole, the projected completions volume currently stands at 98,7 sqm, of which only 7,4 sqm is still available on the rental market. Vacancies fell further in the period from July to September, continuing an ongoing trend. Market-active vacancies on the Frankfurt office market that is, office space that can be occupied within three months of the contract signing decreased by a further 74, sqm to 1.7 million sqm within the quarter. This translates into a vacancy rate of 9.4 %, which fell.6 %-points during the previous three months. The lettings pipeline is still well-filled and will have a significant impact on the fourth quarter of 217, which is why it is able to forecast space take-up of significantly above 6, sqm for the full year. As a consequence, vacancies will continue to decline and rents will continue to rise. Outlook next 12 months Office stock Vacancy Take-up Prime rent Average rent $ % $ $ $

10 Surroundings Market Data Surroundings of Frankfurt Average and Prime Rents Kelkheim 8. / 12.7 /sqm Hofheim 6.6 / 13. /sqm Oberursel 8.4 / 13. /sqm Kronberg 1.7 / 14.7 /sqm Steinbach 6.9 / 1. /sqm Bad Soden 9.7 / 13.2 /sqm Schwalbach 1.7 / 12.8 /sqm Sulzbach 9.3 / 13.8 /sqm Liederbach 7.1 / 1. /sqm Kriftel 7.3 / 1.4 /sqm Kelsterbach 8.8 / 13.1 /sqm Hattersheim 9.4 / 13. /sqm Airport 2. / 27. /sqm Mörfelden-Walldorf 7.7 / 1.8 /sqm Friedrichsdorf 7.2 / 11.6 /sqm Bad Homburg 9.9 / 15.2 /sqm Neu-Isenburg 9.2 / 13.1 /sqm Dreieich 6.7 / 12.1 /sqm Langen 7.7 / 11.9 /sqm Bad Vilbel 8.9 / 12.6 /sqm Offenbach 9.4 / 14.5 /sqm Dietzenbach 6.3 / 1.7 /sqm Maintal 5.4 / 1.1 /sqm Hanau 6.9 / 12.2 /sqm Map Basis: RegioGraph GfK GeoMarketing GmbH On the basis of 5,314 offers (8/216-7/217) empirica-systeme Marktdatenbank

11 Top 5 Key Facts Cities Office space, take-up, vacancy, prime rent, average rent Q3 217 Office space (in m. sqm) Vacancy (in %) Prime rent ( /sqm) Average rent ( /sqm) Berlin Dusseldorf Frankfurt a. M Hamburg Munich Prime yields Q3 217 Prime office yields Prime retail yields Prime logistics yields Berlin 3.1 % 3.25 % 4.7 % Dusseldorf 3.8 % 3.4 % 4.7 % Frankfurt a. M % 3.45 % 4.7 % Hamburg 3.2 % 3.3 % 4.7 % Munich 3.1 % 2.95 % 4.65 % Total Ø = 3.35 % Ø = 3.25 % Ø = 4.7 % Frankfurt a. M. Top take-up Q1-Q3 217 Property + Location MainPark, Kaiserleistraße / Offenbach-Kaiserlei Mainzer Landstraße / Gallus Tenant / owner occupier Helaba Stadt Frankfurt Leased area in sqm 27,5 14,4 Junghof Plaza, Junghofstraße / Bankenlage Clifford Chance 11,8 Omniturm, Große Gallusstraße / Bankenlage Morgan Stanley 1, Berliner Straße 316 / Offenbach-Kaiserlei Axa Versicherung 8, Top investments Q1-Q3 217 Property + Location Grand Central, Adam-Riese-Straße Purchaser Amundi Real Estate Purchase Price approx. 31,, T8, Taunusanlage 8 Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. approx. 3,, Eschborn Plaza, Mergenthalerallee 3-5 Aurec / Migdal Insurance Group etc. approx. 236,, WestendCarree, Grüneburgweg Infrared Capital Partners approx. 127,, Frankfurt Airport Center 1 (FAC 1), Hugo-Eckener-Ring 1 Madison International Realty / Peakside approx. 12,,

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