Office Leasing and Investment

Transcription

1 MarkEt REPORT Berlin 215/216 Office Leasing and Investment Accelerating success,

2 Office leasing Berlin STATISTICS Population 3,562, Unemployment Rate 1.1 % Employees Paying Social Security Contributions 1,311, Purchasing Power Index Berlin office leasing market sets new record in Trade Tax Multiplier 41 % Per Capita Disposable Income 2,93 Sources: Statistisches Bundesamt, Statistische Landesämter, Bundesagentur für Arbeit, infas geodaten Fast Facts OFFICE LEASING (INCLUSIVE OWNER-OCCUPIERS) Office Space Take-up 843, m² Leasing Take-up 789,9 m² Prime Rent 24.3/m² Average Rent 15.1/m² Vacancy Rate Office take-up on the Berlin office leasing market again topped previous year results with a 2% increase. A total of roughly 843, sqm were taken up in the German capital in 215. This can be attributed to the growth strategies of a large number of Berlinbased businesses as well as to the fact that more and more start-ups are choosing the German capital as their home base. Allianz signed the largest-scale lease just before the end of the year for around 47, sqm at Rudower Chaussee in Adlershof. The company is planning to open its new company headquarters there in the spring of 219. Online retailer Zalando also snapped up approx. 42, sqm 3.7 % Office Space Stock (incl. periphery) 18.5m m² Take-up of Space in 1, m Leases 2 Owner-occupiers Market Report Berlin 215/216 Office Leasing and Investment

3 on Valeska-Gert-Straße near Mediaspree for its new headquarters. Zalando signed a lease for another almost 13, sqm on Mühlenstraße in Q2. Early in the year in Q1 Rocket Internet took up around 22, sqm at the former GSW high-rise in the Berlin-Kreuzberg district. Take-up of Space With leases signed for 263, sqm, the largest space segment of 5, sqm and up accounted for the largest share of total take-up volume (31%). The smallest space segment of less than 5 sqm continues to be the backbone of the Berlin office market. More than 55 new leases were signed in this segment (157,3 sqm), generating a share of total take-up volume similar to previous year results. Leases were signed for roughly 125,6 sqm of office space in the space segment of between 51 sqm and 1, sqm, down yoy around 18,3 sqm or 13%. In addition to the largest space segment, significant increases were recorded in the segments of between 1,1 sqm and 2, sqm and 2,1 sqm and 5, sqm. Tenants took up 132,1 sqm (+ 36,5 sqm or 28%) and 164,5 sqm (+ 35,7 sqm or 22%) in these segments, respectively. A total of roughly 93 new leases were signed in the German capital in 215. This continued increase in take-up was primarily spurred by a number of leases signed in the space segment of 5, sqm and up, with a total of 19 new leases signed. Besides the large-scale leases signed by Allianz, Zalando, Rocket Internet and Daimler, leases were signed by KPMG for space on Heidestraße, by Roever Broenner Susat Mazars attorneys at law for space at the Bertha Benz project and by the MDK (Medizinischer Dienst der Krankenkassen) for space on Lise-Meitner-Straße. City East remains the most coveted office submarket, once again posting a yoy increase in take-up of just under 32, sqm to a current 251,1 sqm. We also saw a considerable increase in take-up in the neighboring downtown and peripheral locations due to the scarcity of available space in prime locations. Tenants looking for office space took up 176,6 sqm (+ 5, sqm or 28%) and 178,1 sqm (+ 51,5 sqm or 29%) in these two submarkets, respectively. As a result of scarce supply, tenants signed a total of 75 leases for 34,7 sqm combined for space in prime locations near Kurfürstendamm, 25 fewer leases than in 214. Supply and Vacancies Roughly 684, sqm of office space was available for immediate tenancy in Berlin at the end of Q4 215, reflecting a drop in vacancy of more than 21, sqm over the past twelve months. The vacancy rate is currently recorded at 3.7%. Downtown locations in particular are currently experiencing a severe supply bottleneck. This once again considerable drop in vacancy can be attributed to dynamic leasing performance and relatively low completion rates. Around 195, sqm of office space is scheduled to be completed by the end of the 216, roughly 65% of which has already been preleased. A slightly more limited amount of new space is scheduled to become available in 217 (approx. 185, sqm), around 5% of which has already been preleased. A new landmark building will be added to the City West landscape with the completion of Upper West next to the neighboring Zoofenster in early 217. This new-build will encompass 33 floors featuring 53, sqm of high-end office and retail space as well as a Motel One Group hotel in the new design. Situated between Olivaer and Adenauer Platz, the Pallais Holler building will be the first new-build to be completed along Kurfürstendamm in several years. The property will encompass around 6,4 sqm of office and retail space and is scheduled for completion in Q Market overview LOCATION Office Space Take-up in m² incl, owner-occupiers Lease take-up in m² Number of lease contracts Sustainable Rents in /m² Average Rent in /m²/month Vacancy ¹) in m² Centre West 1 34,7 31, ,6 Centre East 2 95,1 93, ,8 Potsdamer Platz/ Leipziger Platz 3 29,3 25, ,1 City East 4 251,1 245, ,1 City West 5 78,1 59, ,1 City Margins 6 176,6 163, ,3 Periphery 7 178,1 17, , Total 843, 789, , ¹) Vacancy: obtainable new buildings and nascent inventory spaces within 3 months Research: Margit Lippold, margit.lippold@colliers.com Colliers International 3

4 Take-up of Space by Size (in 1, m² and %) and Number of Lease Contracts incl. Owner-occupiers ,3 up to 5 125,6 19% 15% 16% 2% 31% up to 1, Take-up Space by Size 132,1 up to 2, Take-up by Industries Top Five (in m²) and share of Total Take-up (in %) Prime and Average Rents (in /m²) 164,5 up to 5, from 5,1 Number of Lease Contracts 183,6 22% 126,5 15% 19,7 13% 88,6 11% 63,7 8% 263, Information and Telecommunication Consulting Firms Retail and Food Service Public Administration, Organisations, church Building and Real Estate Demand The information and telecommunications industry continued to be the most active up until the end of 215, once again showing how attractive Berlin has become as a company base, especially for innovative start-ups. ICT businesses signed 2 new leases here for 183,6 sqm, around 22% of total take-up. They were followed at some distance by consulting firms with over 18 leases signed for 126,5 sqm and by companies from the retail and gastronomy sector with 65 leases signed for 19,7 sqm. Rents Due to strong demand for office space, both prime and especially average rents have steadily increased over the past five years. The yoy increase in average rent could particularly be felt in 215. While weighted average rent throughout the city was recorded at 13.7 per sqm at the end of 214, tenants are currently paying weighted average rent of 15.1 per sqm. That is an increase of around 1%. We are seeing a general trend toward rent increases throughout all city submarkets with rents in prime downtown locations rising more steeply than in other areas. New space near Kurfürstendamm is going for up to 24. per sqm with rents for space at Potsdamer/Leipziger Platz up to 26. per sqm. Tenants looking to lease space at Pariser Platz could even be looking at up to 35. per sqm. This steep increase becomes even more apparent when taking a closer look at the different rent segments. Compared to 214, considerably fewer leases were signed in the two lower rent segments of up to 1. per sqm and between 1.1 and 12.5 per sqm. In contrast, rents increased significantly in the higher-price segments starting at per sqm and the prime segment starting at 2. per sqm. 143,6 sqm was leased for between and 15. per sqm (+ 18, sqm) with tenants paying between 15.1 and 17.5 per sqm for 171,9 sqm of office space, 75,3 sqm more than in 214. Take-up of space going for between and 2. per sqm almost doubled to roughly 13,7 sqm. The yoy increase in the prime segment was even more significant with only 43, sqm taken up in 214 compared to a whopping 112,7 sqm in 215. This upward trend in both average and prime rents can be attributed to low supply and high demand. We expect this trend to continue in Leases Owner-occupiers 4 Market Report Berlin 215/216 Office Leasing and Investment

5 Immax Property Index The Colliers IMMAX property index indicates the supply and demand trend on the office market. It shows the relationship between supply at the time of data collection and take-up over the previous twelve months. This relationship is currently 2. for the German capital, indicating a 59% decrease compared to its peak at the end of 29 (3.4). Vacancy (in 1, m²) and Vacancy Rates (in %) 2, 1,5 7.9% 7.% 6.% 5.% 3.7% As a result of increasing leasing performance combined with the fact that office space is becoming scarcer, the IMMAX continued to drop year over year. Due to the low new-build completion volume, we expect the IMMAX to have dropped again slightly by late 216. Summary and Outlook 1, 5 1, , , The fact that considerably more space is expected to be added to the market in Berlin is further indication of the city s popularity among a large number of businesses, particularly innovative startups from the IT sector. The general economic situation in Germany is considered to be favorable, which is why demand for space can be expected to increase this year. Due to the scarcity of supply we do not expect office take-up in 216 to match 215 levels. However, we do expect 216 results to considerably exceed the 7,-sqm mark. Property Index IMMAX 1/ /15 1/15 7/14 1/14 7/13 1/13 7/ /12 7/ Completion Volume (in 1, m²) Research: Margit Lippold, margit.lippold@colliers.com Colliers International 5

6 Investment Berlin investment market also experiences all-time high transaction volume at 8.1 billion Margit Lippold Dipl.-Ing. Geodäsie M. Sc. REM Director Research Phone margit.lippold@colliers.com Fast Facts INVESTMENT Transaction Volume Largest Buyer Group: Asset / Fund Manager Largest Seller Group: Asset / Fund Manager Commercial Transaction Volume (in billion ) 8.1 billion 28. % 31. % Most requested Type of Property: 6. % Office Prime Yield Office 4. % Transaction Volume Commercial property and sites valued at 8.1 bn changed hands on Berlin s commercial investment market in 215, more than double 214 results of 4. bn. This is the highest result for this market ever posted in the Berlin municipal area. Activity in Q4 was particularly lively. The new record was fueled by the sale of Potsdamer Platz Quartier, which Canadian property investor Brookfield together with a South Korean sovereign wealth fund purchased for an estimated 1.4 bn. Additional high-volume deals such as the sale of Boulevard Berlin for just under 37 m and Stettiner Carrè for over 2 m came together to give the German capital this sensational result. The Berlin investment market surpassed all other results with a transaction volume of 8.1 bn, numbers only previously seen in 27 in Frankfurt am Main. That put Berlin at the top among the other German investment markets. The Berlin commercial investment market continues to draw lively activity from international buyers who expanded their high market share over the course of 215, finishing out the year with a share in total transaction volume of just under 5%. International investors tripled their investments in the German capital compared to 214 in which they poured slightly more than 1.3 bn into Berlin assets, a strong indication of the city s increasing popularity. Buyer and Seller Groups Asset/fund managers were the most active investor group in terms of buying and selling assets, generating a market share of 28% and 31%, respectively. This investor group signed 46 deals as both sellers and buyers, accounting for a transaction volume of 2.23 bn and 2.49 bn, respectively. Open-ended real estate funds/special funds invested more than 1.5 bn in the German capital. Project developers/development companies ( 935 m), listed property companies ( 752 m) and REITs ( 625 m) also played a considerable role in shaping the buyer landscape. Following asset/fund managers in first place, second place among the seller groups went to project developers/development companies with almost 1.4 bn and third place to open-ended real estate funds/special funds with 1.2 bn. Banks ( 49 m) and listed property companies ( 446 m) followed in the ranks Market Report Berlin 215/216 Office Leasing and Investment

7 Investment Assets As in previous years, office assets dominated the Berlin commercial investment market in 215. This asset type accounted for considerably more than half of total transaction volume with a share of 6%. Retail assets trailed at some distance with just under 2%. Hotels generated a share in total transaction volume of 11%. Mixed-use properties, logistics and industrial assets and commercial sites played a rather secondary role in the Berlin municipal area in 215. Portfolio deals accounted for 37% of transaction volume and generated a 2% share in terms of the number of deals signed. Investment Highlights In 215 a large number of investors focused on core assets in prime central locations in Berlin as well as investment alternatives in peripheral locations. Prime locations in City Ost and West as well as at Potsdamer Platz benefited from this development, generating a transaction volume of over 3.1 bn. Peripheral locations posted over 1.6 bn. Gross initial yields in Berlin had dropped for all usage types and risk classes by the end of the year. Prime gross initial yields for top office properties fell 5 basis points to a current 4.%. The shopping mall segment recorded prime gross initial yields at 3.7%, down 75 basis points yoy. Prices for logistics assets increased as well, with yields at 6.% experiencing a downward trend. Transaction Volume by Buyers Group (Millions of ), Share (in %) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 28% Transaction Volume by Sellers Group (Millions of ), Share (in %) 2,5 31% 2, 19% Asset / Fund Manager Open-ended Funds / Special Funds 12% 9% 8% Developers / Constructors Listed Property Companies REITs Summary and Outlook Both German and foreign investors turned their focus to Berlin for suitable investment opportunities. Due to the ongoing favorable general economic situation, the Berlin commercial investment market remains an attractive investment destination. Berlin is considered to be a prime location and investors are confident about the city s future. With activity on the Berlin investment market extremely lively, look for yields to continue to drop slightly in 216. We expect transaction volume in the German capital to reach another all-time high. Several high-volume investments are set to be finalized in 216, making an end-of-the-year result once again exceeding 7 bn realistic. 1,5 1, 5 17% Types of Properties (in %) 15% Asset / Fund Manager Developers / Constructors Open-ended Funds / Special Funds 6% 6% Banking and Finance Listed Property Companies Logistic/Industry Building Sites Mixed-use Properties Hotel 11 Retail 19 6 Offices Research: Margit Lippold, margit.lippold@colliers.com Colliers International 7

8 52 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 14 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 18 Author: Margit Lippold Head of Research margit.lippold@colliers.com Colliers International Berlin GmbH Budapester Straße 5 D 1787 Berlin Phone billion in annual revenue 75 billion in transaction volume with more than 8, investment- and leasing-deals 16 Million spuare meter under management 16,3 Professionals worldwide About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is a global leader in commercial real estate services with more than 16,3 professionals operating from 52 offices in 67 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant insider ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage, global corporate solutions, investment sales and capital markets, project management and workplace solutions, property and asset management, consulting, valuation and appraisal services, and customized research and thought leadership. Colliers International has been ranked among the top 1 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 1 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. For the latest news from Colliers International, visit Colliers.com, or follow us on and LinkedIn. To see the latest news on Colliers International in Germany follow colliers.de Credit Cover Henn Zalando Headquarter Berlin, Valeska-Gert-Straße Copyright 216 Colliers International München GmbH This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s) All rights reserved.