New Development Report

Transcription

1 New Development Report 2017 Third Quarter MANHATTAN $ 2,537 PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE $ 2,138 PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED $ 2,096 PER SQ. FT. CLOSED BROOKLYN $ 1,468 PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE $ 1,423 PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED $ 1,379 PER SQ. FT. CLOSED 6, % QoQ 10% QoQ AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* *Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.

2 Summary Points MANHATTAN BROOKLYN $2,138 PSF In Manhattan, pricing for new development units entering into contract in Q fell 1.6% quarter-over-quarter to $2,138 PSF from $2,172 in Q2 2017, but rose 3.3% year-overyear from $2,070 PSF in Q This marks the third consecutive quarter of falling average PPSF in Manhattan. Avg. PPSF for closed new development units fell 4.4% quarter-over-quarter to $2,096, and fell 7.7% from $2,271 in Q as fewer super luxury units closed than in previous quarters. MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT. Active $2,270 $1,439 Contract Signed $2,040 $1,389 Closed $1,868 $1,332 $1,423 PSF In Brooklyn, new development entering into contract averaged $1,423 PSF, essentially flat quarter-over-quarter and up 1.1% year-over-year. Brooklyn pricing remains strong as eight of the last ten quarters have shown a rising average PPSF for units entering contract, and this marks the third consecutive quarter of rising or flat pricing. Avg. PPSF for closed new development in Brooklyn rose 2.5% yearover-year to $1, % Harlem experienced the largest quarterover-quarter Avg. PPSF increase in Manhattan at 26.4% for sold units (contract signed and closed), rising to $1,526 due primarily to closings at 285 West 110th Street. Downtown Manhattan remained flat quarter-overquarter while other major Manhattan neighborhoods were down between 1.6% (Midtown East) and 5.7% (Midtown West). PER SQ. FT. Active $2,537 $1,468 Contract Signed $2,138 $1,423 MEDIAN PRICE Closed $2,096 $1,379 Active $3,900,000 $2,,000 Contract Signed $2,250,000 $1,445,000 Closed $2,443,184 $975,000 In Manhattan, just over 310 units entered into contract in Q3 2017, a decrease of 10.2% quarter-over-quarter and 11.7% year-overyear. In Brooklyn, nearly 60 units entered into contract in Q3 2017, 310 UNITS a 54.2% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 38.7% decrease year-over-year from over 90 units in Q This decrease reflects a lack of large projects launching in key Brooklyn neighborhoods, inhibiting supply in key price points below $2M, as only four projects with more than 20 units launched in These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within the same quarter. 86.2% In Manhattan, the total percentage of new development deals entering contract under $5M rose to 86.2% from 77% in Q Conversely, the percentage of deals over $5M fell to 13.8% from 23% in Q as absorption in the luxury market has slowed. Active $6,505,264 $2,481,600 Contract Signed $3,512,576 $1,642,164 TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS) Closed $3,913,847 $1,463,415 Total 12,287 2,215 Units Available 6, % Closed or Contract Signed 50.4% 69.2% HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 2

3 Introduction HPDM is pleased to present our New Development Report for Q This report focuses exclusively on the NYC new development condominium market, and aims to be the only report of its kind presenting a comprehensive picture of new development activity. New development is unique from the overall real estate market in that closings often do not occur for 12 to 18 months after a buyer enters into contract. Therefore, to understand this market it is critical to track active listings, listings in contract, closed listings, as well as total inventory. This report analyzes Q as a whole and is a snapshot of current new development market conditions. In Manhattan, pricing for new development units entering into contract in Q fell 1.6% quarterover-quarter to $2,138 PSF from $2,172 in Q2 2017, but rose 3.3% year-overyear from $2,070 PSF in Q Avg. PPSF for closed new development units fell 4.4% quarter-over-quarter to $2,096, and fell 7.7% from $2,271 in Q In Brooklyn, new development entering into contract averaged $1,423 PSF, essentially flat quarterover-quarter and up 1.1% year-overyear. Avg. PPSF for closed new development in Brooklyn rose 2.5% year-over-year to $1,379. METHODOLOGY: All data is provided by proprietary Halstead Property Development Marketing research. This report tracks new development projects only, defined as those new to the market and currently selling sponsor units. Buildings that have fully sold out of sponsor units are not included, even though they may be newly built. Resale data is not included in this report. All listings were compiled as of 9/18/17. Total Inventory is defined as all units within new development projects that are currently listed as Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are currently listed as Active as well as those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 2017, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. By including currently unreleased units that are not yet listed as Active this data provides a unique and comprehensive analysis of the current new development market. TABLE OF CONTENTS MARKET OVERVIEW...5 MARKET OVERVIEW BY QUARTER... 6 MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT...7 ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE...8 PRICE POINT ANALYSIS... 9 TOTAL INVENTORY...11 FURTHER INSIGHT HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 3

4 PARK COURT TH STREET, PARK SLOPE ParkCourtCollection.com

5 Market Overview Downtown continued to see the most development activity in Manhattan in Q with more than 380 units either entering into contract or closing. Next to Billionaire s Row, Downtown shows the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,639. The highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. for Contract Signed deals in Q occurred Downtown, with an average of $2,229 PSF, remaining flat year-over-year. CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS NUMBER OF UNITS $6, $5,000 $4, $4, $3, $2,000 $1,000 $1,526 $2,012 $2,030 $2,163 $1,767 $1,623 $1,773 $2,456 $1,496 $2,356 $2,284 $1,358 $1,469 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $8,163 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $2,066 $1,497 $1,529 $2,320 $2,226 $2,104 $1,963 $1,726 $1,988 $2,126 $2,330 $1,900 $1,819 $1,924 $2,077 $2,119 $1,859 $1,750 $1,738 $1,619 $5,898 $3,911 $4,314 $2,340 $2,504 $2,160 $2,143 $1,908 $2,289 $2,639 $2,879 $2,229 $2,422 $2,430 $2,017 $1,468 $1,423 $1,379 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue *Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 5

6 Market Overview by Quarter The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter. Outside of Billionaire s Row, Harlem experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in Average PPSF at 26.4%, rising to $1,526, due primarily to closings at 285 West 110th Street. Downtown remained essentially flat quarter-over-quarter while other major Manhattan neighborhoods were down between 1.6% (Midtown East) and 5.7% (Midtown West). Meanwhile, Avg. PPSF in Brooklyn rose 1.8% quarter-over-quarter. CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. Q Q Q Q $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $6,188 $5,259 $7,268 $4,955 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,118 $1,099 $1,207 $1,526 $2,251 $2,303 $2,079 $2,015 $2,090 $1,964 $1,922 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* $1,842 $1,729 $1,970 $1,850 $1,745 $2,197 $2,098 $2,252 $2,216 $2,589 $2,429 $2,335 $2,344 $1,322 $1,311 $1,362 $1,386 MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** $2,325 $1,245 *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg. HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 6

7 Manhattan Neighborhood Insight Outside of Billionaire s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in Manhattan for Q was $3,607 PSF, achieved in the West Village with sales at 160 Leroy Street, followed closely by West Chelsea at $3,561. The highest average Closed pricing outside of Billionaire s Row occurred in the West Village at $3,234 PSF due to sales at The Greenwich Lane and 275 West 10th Street, followed by West Chelsea at $3,071 PSF. UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $8,163 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $2,066 $1,497 $1,529 $2,320 $2,104 $1,988 $2,126 $1,900 $1,819 $2,916 $2,481 $5,898 $4,314 $2,340 $2,160 $2,289 $2,614 $2,036 $2,102 $3,276 $3,561 $3,071 $1,669 $1,859 $1,652 $2,058 $2,062 $1,599 Harlem UWS UES Midtown West Billionaire s Row* Midtown East Chelsea West Chelsea Hell s Kitchen Gramercy Park DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $2,949 $2,385 $3,069 $2,738 $2,900 $2,895 $2,670 $2,354 $2,300 $2,898 $2,739 $1,846 $2,289 $3,513 $3,607 $3,234 $2,185 $1,845 $1,681 $2,166 $2,196 $2,039 $2,644 $2,268 $2,136 Flatiron Greenwich Village SoHo NoHo TriBeCa West East LES Financial Village Village District *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 7

8 Analysis by Unit Type MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN In Q two-bedroom units continued to experience the most deal volume by unit type in Manhattan, with over 240 two-bedroom units entering into contract or closing. In Brooklyn, one-bedroom units saw the most deal volume with more than units entering into contract or closing. Median Contract Signed pricing for two-bedrooms in Manhattan rose 7.2% quarter-over-quarter to $2.8M, and 4.9% year-over-year from $2.67M in Q In Brooklyn, median Contract Signed pricing for one-bedrooms fell 4.2% year-over-year to $863,000, down from $901,000 in Q MANHATTAN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE MANHATTAN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM $16M $14M $12M $10M $8M $6M $4M $2M ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS $1.05M $1.18M $635K $1.6M $1.62M $1.26M $2.92M $2.8M $2.48M $5.75M $4.47M $5.0M $8.98M 183 $11.88M $8.12M $13.7M 55 $14.73M $10.46M NUMBER OF UNITS ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED 5 BED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED 5 BED BROOKLYN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE BROOKLYN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM $6M $5M $4M $3M $2M $1M ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS $650K $590K $600K $1.06M $863K $882K $1.66M $1.5M $1.57M $2.72M $2.25M $2.05M $3.8M $3.4M $3.85M NUMBER OF UNITS ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 8

9 Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN 38% of all Active new development listings in Manhattan remain priced above $5M, but well below a high of 52% in Q Meanwhile, 14.4% of Active listings remain priced above $10M, down from 16.2% in Q In Manhattan, the total percentage of new development deals entering contract under $5M rose to 86.2% from 77% in Q Conversely, the percentage of deals over $5M fell to 13.8% from 23% quarter-over-quarter. Q PRICE POINT MANHATTAN ACTIVE MANHATTAN CONTRACT SIGNED MANHATTAN CLOSED 9.8% 11.4% 17.4% 16.9% 6.3 % 38.2% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M 48.6% 9.9% 4.0% 11.3% 15.5% 15.2% 0% 2.7% 8.1% 13.5% 34.4% 27.0% 13.8% 7.7% 12.6% 20.6% 4.0% 7.1% 7.1% 15.7% 10.7% 41.3% 27.2% 32.2% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M Q PRICE POINT BROOKLYN ACTIVE BROOKLYN CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN CLOSED 53.4% 2.6% 1.0% 4.7% 10.4% 28.0% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 9

10 SIX CORTLANDT ALLEY TRIBECA SixCortlandtAlley.com HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 10

11 445 Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN The largest amount of available inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Lower East Side with over 900 units, due to One Manhattan Square. Midtown West is next with over 600 units of available inventory. Neighborhoods with low available inventory (under 50 units) include Chelsea, Flatiron, and Greenwich Village. In Brooklyn, the highest available inventory is found in Williamsburg and Prospect Heights due to the Austin Nichols House and 550 Vanderbilt. Areas of low available inventory (under 20 units) include Downtown Brooklyn and Carroll Gardens. The graphs below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the corresponding percentage of units sold. MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 2017, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by including unreleased units. PERCENTAGE SOLD % % 1,246 62% 1,398 25% % % % % % % % % % % 34 67% % 62% % 1,189 56% 1,095 % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BN. ROW* MIDTOWN EAST CHELSEA WEST CHELSEA HELL'S KITCHEN GRAM. PARK FLATIRON GREEN. VILLAGE SOHO NOHO TRIBECA WEST VILLAGE EAST VILLAGE LES FINANCIAL DISTRICT BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD % PERCENTAGE SOLD % 81% 89% % % 59% 61% 66% 61% 51% 60% % 80% 70% % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% BROOKLYN HEIGHTS CARROLL GARDENS CLINTON HILL CROWN HEIGHTS BOERUM HILL DUMBO GREENPOINT PROSPECT HEIGHTS PARK SLOPE WILLIAMSBURG *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 11

12 96 Further Insight MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development activity by volume in Q3 2017, followed closely by Brooklyn. In Manhattan, just over 310 units entered into contract in Q3 2017, a decrease of 10.2% quarter-overquarter and 11.7% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, nearly 60 units entered into contract in Q3 2017, a 54.2% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 38.7% decrease yearover-year from over 90 units in Q This decrease reflects a lack of large projects launching in key neighborhoods, inhibiting supply in key price points below $2M. These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within the same quarter. MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE Two-bedroom units in Brooklyn remain more efficiently sized than two-bedrooms in Manhattan, while one-bedrooms are becoming more similarly sized in each borough. Median size for two-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 1101 sq.ft, while the median for twobedroom units in Manhattan is 1402 sq. ft. Median size for one-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 685 sq.ft, while the median for one-bedroom units in Manhattan is 788 sq. ft. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED MANHATTAN BROOKLYN ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,402 1,101 2,271 1,658 3,220 2,663 4,223 3,582 UES UWS MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST BN ROW* DOWNTOWN UPPER MANHATTAN BKLYN** STUDIO 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR 4 BR 5 BR *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg. HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Third Quarter Report 12

13 Contact One Park Cliffside Park, NJ OneParkCondosNJ.com 318 West 47 Hell's Kitchen 318w47.com 445 Park Avenue, 10th Floor New York, NY 22 HPDMNY.com Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Vice President of Research and Analytics The information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM s prior consent. For questions or comments regarding this report please contact research@hpdmny.com