Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report NASHVILLE OFFICE 4th Quarter 2016 Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 Katie Barton Director of Research Nashville, TN Key Takeaways > > Nashville s overall rental rate is at its highest point to date, closing out 4Q 2016 at $24.33 per square foot. This represents an increase of 0.6% since last quarter, and a 5.4% increase since 4Q > > Nashville s office market absorbed positive 1,101,934 square feet during 4Q 2016, the largest gain since Q3 2008, and nearly double the total of the first three quarters of 2016 combined. > > 1.09 million square feet in new construction was added to Nashville market s inventory during 4Q Of the Class A product delivered in 2016, 80% is occupied, leaving 311,000 square feet vacant. > > Occupancy in the Nashville market remained above 95% each quarter of 2016 despite the delivery of 1.6M square feet. Nashville Office Market In its Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017 Survey, ULI named Nashville the #6 U.S. Market to Watch for 2017, evidenced by the city s hip factor, diverse economy driven by health care, technology, tourism, and education, and strong investor interest. Employment remains strong in Nashville with a 3% year-over-year job growth, equating to about 39 jobs added per day, according to the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce. Nashville has transitioned to an upper-tier secondary market, and economic indicators favor Music City s office market in Nashville s office market remains among the nation s most active, and the health care, legal, and corporate operations sectors helped fuel this momentum throughout Notable tenants in the market this year that signed new leases included Healthstream (25,893 SF) Surgery Partners (56,141 SF), and Universal Health Services, (65,000 SF). Corporate giant Bridgestone Americas will occupy 80,000 square feet in the Airport South submarket, and Schneider Electric will absorb 150,000 square feet in the Cool Springs submarket. Class A and creative office space was in high demand throughout the year, as marketwide Class A vacancy remained below 5% each quarter. The overall office market ended 2016 at 4.7% vacancy. The fourth quarter s net absorption reached a positive 1.1 million square feet, bringing the 2016 year-to-date total net absorption to 1.7 million square feet. Market Indicators Relative to prior period 4Q Q 2017* VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** Note: Construction is the change in Under Construction. *Projected **Rental rates for current quarter are for the entire metro. Rent forecast is for metro-wide rents. Summary Statistics 4Q 2016 Nashville Office Market Entire Market CBD Suburban Vacancy Rate 4.7% 7.0% 3.7% 4Q Absorption 1.1M 949, ,573 New Construction 1.09M 785, ,000 Under Construction (Square Feet) Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year 2.37M 1.24M 1.13M Average $24.33 $25.72 $21.36 Class A $28.13 $29.63 $27.77 Class B $21.82 $24.12 $19.89 Unemployment Rates Nov-15 Nov-16 Nashville 4.5% 3.8% Tennessee 5.6% 4.8% U.S. 5.0% 4.6%

2 Rental Rates New construction, high occupancy, and client demand ushered in significant rental rate increases over the last two years. Nashville Market Rental Rates* $40 Downtown s Class A rental rate of $32.27, an average of both existing properties and new product, is a record high for this submarket. The record asking rate of $40 per square foot for newly-delivered Class A buildings downtown remains the highest asking rate in the Nashville MSA. The suburban Class A rental rate has increased throughout 2016, peaking at $29.47 per square foot for new and existing space during the fourth quarter. Rates for new product in the suburban market have reached $35 per square foot in the Cool Springs and Brentwood submarkets. $33 $26 $19 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Throughout 2016, the gap between average Class A rental rates downtown and rates in the suburban submarkets narrowed. Suburban Class A asking rates escalated and continue to become more competitive with Downtown rates. New suburban construction and market-wide demand for quality available space contributed to this emerging market trend. Nashville s overall average rental rate is at its highest point to date, closing out 4Q 2016 at $24.33 per square foot. This represents an increase of 0.6% since last quarter, and a 5.4% increase since 4Q Vacancy & Availability Occupancy in the Nashville market remained above 95% each quarter of 2016 despite the delivery of 1.6M square feet. 4Q 2016 closed with a market-wide vacancy rate of 4.7%. This is 40 basis points down from 4Q 2015, and strong demand for office space will likely keep Nashville s vacancy below 6% until additional office product is delivered to the market in Downtown Nashville was a top-performing submarket in 2016, as multiple tenants chose to relocate or expand into new space in various high-profile office towers. With the largest market-wide vacancy drop since last quarter, Downtown ended the fourth quarter with a Class A vacancy rate of 6.4%, down 260 basis points from 3Q The average suburban Class A vacancy rate increased by 1.5% during 4Q with new vacancies created by Carlisle Transportation, Parallon Business Solutions, and Noranda. Cool Springs also welcomed 155,000 square feet of new Class A space with the delivery of Two Greenway Centre during the fourth quarter. The high-demand submarkets* posting the lowest vacancies during 4Q 2016 are Brentwood (2.2%), West End (1.5%), and Green Hills/ Music Row (2.7%). * Suburban submarkets with total Class A inventory totaling over 2M square feet. Increases in office vacancy, resulting from new deliveries, are short-term in Middle Tennessee. Of the Class A product delivered in 2016, 85% is occupied, leaving 311,000 square feet vacant. CBD vs Suburban Class A Rental Rates** $35 $32 $29 $26 $23 $20 Q4-14 New Construction Class A Market Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 CBD Rental Rate Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Suburban Rental Rate Q3-16 CBD vs Suburban Class A Vacancy Rates 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 CBD Vacancy Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Suburban Vacancy Q3-16 Q4-16 * New construction includes buildings delivered after 2014 and buildings that are currently under construction. **Inventory includes existing Class A properties exceeding 20,000 square feet, as well as Class A properties under construction. Q Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q 2016 Office Colliers International

3 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Product set for delivery in 2017 is 70% pre-leased and backfill space is being leased at a record pace. Warner Music Group signed a lease at Nashville City Center during 4Q and will absorb a large portion of Gresham Smith & Partners space once they become anchor tenant at 222 2nd Avenue in Healthstream signed a lease to backfill 25,900 square feet that became available when LBMC moved into their anchor space at Hill Center Brentwood during 4Q Nashville Office Market Historical Vacancy & Rental Rates** Rental Rate $30 $25 $20 $15 15% 12% 9% Vacancy Rate Absorption & Leasing Activity $10 6% Nashville s office market absorbed positive 1,101,934 square feet during 4Q This was the largest gain since Q and nearly double the combined total of the first three quarters of The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-recession high. Nashville s 10-year average absorption of 1,030,000 square feet continues to outpace the 10-year average delivery of 875,029 square feet. Nearly 2.3 million square feet of space is on track to be delivered by late 2017, and 70% is pre-leased. $5 $0 Nashville Market New Supply, Net Absorption, and Vacancy Market Rent Class A Rent Class A Vacancy % 12% Downtown experienced the largest move-ins during 4Q 2016, closing the year with positive 1.01 million square feet absorbed. The largest occupancies at existing office towers included Intermedix Holdings (34,465 SF) and Dickinson Wright (22,085 SF) at Fifth Third Center and Hankook s 41,000 SF move-in at AT&T Tower. HCA subsidiaries Sarah Cannon Research Institute and Parallon Business Solutions relocated into their new 500,000 square foot location at Capitol View downtown, which will house a combined 2,000 employees. Newly delivered 1201 Demonbreun welcomed Sony Music, William Morris Endeavor, Lendlease, Brasfield & Gorrie, and Eakin Partners, making up 25% of Downtown s 4Q absorption. Prominent law firm Manier & Herod signed a 10-year deal at 1201 Demonbreun and will occupy 15,369 square feet in 1Q Square Feet year average deliveries = 1,030, New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy % 8% 6% 4% Vacancy Rate The suburban submarkets experienced significant occupancy gains throughout 2016 including AIG (183,000 SF) at Seven Springs West in Brentwood; SESAC Inc. (45,107 SF) in Green Hills/Music Row; Quorum (40,000 SF) in Cool Springs; Parallon Business Solutions (38,000 SF) in MetroCenter; C3 Consulting (30,235 SF) in Airport South; and Microsoft Corporation (13,319 SF) at ONEC1TY in the West End submarket. Given the limited amount of available supply, the Nashville market accommodated sizable leases in 2016 for existing space that will be redeveloped and/or renovated. Bridgestone Americas will occupy 80,000 square feet on the second floor of the former Sears store at Hickory Hollow Mall in Airport South, and Lipscomb University will open a 20,100 square foot educational facility in first-floor office space in the Fourth & Commerce Parking Garage. Total Employment (Thousands) Nashville Market Office-Using Employment **Inventory includes existing Class A properties exceeding 20,000 square feet, as well as Class A properties under construction. 3 Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q 2016 Office Colliers International

4 2016 Office Development Nashville Market New Deliveries New construction of office space to accommodate the consistent job growth and leasing momentum in this extremely tight market was a dominant theme throughout Historically high rental rates have not slowed leasing momentum, evidenced by big deals in new space throughout the market. 1.6 million square feet completed in 2016, and 80% is leased million square feet in new construction was added to the inventory during 4Q With the deliveries of 1201 Demonbreun, Two Greenway Centre, and Hill Center Brentwood this quarter, Class A product now exceeds Class B inventory in the Nashville market. > > HCA s new 500,000 headquarters at the Capitol View development and Eakin Partners 272,000 square foot 1201 Demonbreun completed construction this quarter in the Downtown submarket. > > Crescent Communities completed Two Greenway Centre during the fourth quarter. This speculative office development added 155,000 square feet of Class A office space in Cool Springs, with Holland Square Group and Volkert Inc. as the first tenants. > > Construction concluded on the first 158,000 square foot Building B at Hill Center Brentwood with 100% pre-leased. LBMC and Merrill Lynch occupy this building, and construction continues on 90,000 square feet at Building A. URBAN Square Feet year average deliveries = 875, Third Rendering Deliveries 10-Year Average Deliveries Pre-leased 5.1 Million SF Planned Nashville s downtown skyline will see dramatic change in the next few years with construction on 1.24M square feet of Class A office space in the urban core underway and set for delivery within months. > > Hines & C.B. Ragland Co. s 24-story building on 222 2nd Avenue South and Bridgestone Americas 30-story square foot building are under construction and emerging in the skyline. Both have expected deliveries during 3Q 2017, and will bring a combined 850,000 square feet of Class A space to the Downtown submarket. > > Construction continues on 615 Third, a LEED Certified 120,000 square foot Class A building in the SoBro district. Barge, Waggoner, Sumner and Cannon, Inc., Colliers International, R.C. Mathews Company, and The Mathews Company will occupy 80,000 square feet at this location in 4Q SUBURBAN In addition to Nashville boasting a vibrant urban core, the city s suburban markets are also attracting tenants and enjoying significant growth, with 1.13 million square feet under construction. > > Office development in Brentwood has square feet of Class A office space under construction. Hill Center Brentwood A (90,000 SF) and Brentwood Commons (130,000 SF) will both deliver next quarter, and Seven Springs II (130,000 SF) will complete during 2Q Nearly 70% of product that is under construction in this submarket is pre-leased. > > Construction continues on Two Franklin Park in Cool Springs. The building is 75% pre-leased by Schneider Electric and CKE Holdings, who will occupy a combined 61,000 square feet. Build-to-Suit Opportunities Summit Brentwood Brentwood Submarket 480,000 Square Feet Delivery 1Q 2019 One Music Circle South Green Hills/Music Row 120,000 Square Feet Delivery 2Q Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q 2016 Office Colliers International

5 2017 Office Market Outlook In the midst of this current real estate cycle, Nashville continues to be a strong, competitive market. Over the past five years, 5.75 million square feet has been absorbed, the overall vacancy has dropped 4.4%, and rental rates have increased an average of 8.6% yearly. With anticipated job growth of 41,500 jobs over the next two years, demand for office space is likely to remain solid across the metro. Activity in Nashville has been driven by sizable relocations, new-to-market leases, and existing tenant expansions. Large vacancies are coming onto the market as 2016 closes, as new construction delivers and their respective tenants vacate their existing space. A testament to the competitiveness of the market, tenants backfilled these large spaces during 4Q. Over 500,000 available square feet of new construction is going to hit the market over the next 12 months, and 1.2 million square feet will be left to backfill. Rental rates are the highest that Nashville has ever experienced and may level off in 2017 pending a new wave of construction starts. Nashville ranked seventh in The Milken Institute s 2016 Best-Performing Cities, and supply/demand principles provide a favorable outlook for Nashville s 2017 office market NOTABLE LEASING ACTIVITY PROPERTY TENANT LEASE TYPE SF SUBMARKET LEASE SIGNED Seven Springs II Surgery Partners Inc. New 56,141 Brentwood 1Q Sidco Drive c3/consulting New 30,235 Airport South 1Q Demonbreun Lendlease New 26,298 Downtown 1Q 2016 Hill Center Brentwood Merrill Lynch New 21,000 Brentwood 1Q 2016 UBS Tower - 5th Floor UBS New 18,300 Downtown 1Q 2016 Maryland Park Center Maxim Health New 14,871 Brentwood 1Q 2016 L&C Tower Warby Parker New 14,380 Downtown 1Q Grassmere Park Turner Construction New 14,000 Airport South 1Q 2016 Town Center at Berry Farms Alfa Insurance New 65,000 Cool Springs 2Q 2016 AT&T Tower Hankook Tire America Corp. Sublease 39,031 Downtown 2Q 2016 Fifth Third Center US Renal Care New 34,944 Downtown 2Q 2016 Creekside Crossing Jack Henry & Associates Renewal 32,134 Brentwood 2Q 2016 Two Franklin Park CKE Holdings New 29,470 Cool Springs 2Q th Avenue North Lipscomb University - Spark New 20,100 Downtown 2Q 2016 Cummins Station Eventbrite Expansion 17,172 Downtown 2Q 2016 Nashville Sash & Door Lyft Expansion 17,000 Downtown 2Q MSE Loeb & Loeb New 5,976 Green Hills /Music Row 2Q 2016 Two Franklin Park Schneider Electric New 175,000 Cool Springs 3Q 2016 Heritage Place State of Tennessee New 84,207 MetroCenter 3Q 2016 Former Sears Building Bridgestone Americas New 77,218 Airport South 3Q 2016 Nashville City Center First Tennessee Bank New 51,544 Downtown 3Q nd Avenue South Burr & Forman, LLP New 26,450 Downtown 3Q 2016 UBS Tower Qualifacts Systems New 25,000 Downtown 3Q 2016 Bank of America Plaza Smile Direct Club New 20,444 Downtown 3Q 2016 Terrazzo in the Gulch Avison Young New 16,250 Downtown 3Q Demonbreun Manier & Herod New 15,360 Downtown 3Q 2016 Aspen Grove Office AGO - Elliot Davis New 12,789 Cool Springs 3Q 2016 Brentwood Commons Universal Health Services Inc. New 65,000 Brentwood 4Q 2016 Nashville City Center Warner Music Group New 30,000 Downtown 4Q Virginia Way Healthstream New 25,893 Brentwood 4Q Church Street Dickinson Wright Expansion 22,085 Downtown 4Q 2016 AT&T Tower Deloitte Sublease 22,000 Downtown 4Q Broadway Total Quality Logistics Renewal/Expansion 15,040 Downtown 4Q West End Avenue Wang Vision Institute Renewal 8,251 West End 4Q 2016 Two Greenway Centre Volkert Inc. New 8,000 Cool Springs 4Q 2016 L&C Tower Satchel Health New 6,026 Downtown 4Q Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q 2016 Office Colliers International

6 Investment Activity Investor interest in Nashville remained strong in 2016 as office investment sales activity, including deals for medical office, included over $782.5 million with an average price per square foot of $246. Total 4Q investment volume in the office market reached over $117 million, which kept pace with the first through third quarters. > > The majority of assets traded in 2016 are properties located in the suburban markets. The sale of Corporate Centre 307 in Cool Springs was the largest office deal of 2016, trading for $165 million for $220 per square foot. Cumulative Monthly Investment Volume > > Medical properties accounted for about 20% of the total transactions in 2016, totaling over $132.4 million at an average of $271 per square foot. 0 J F 2016 M A M 2015 J J A 2014 S O N 2013 D 2016 NOTABLE OFFICE INVESTMENT DEALS PROPERTY BUYER SF PRICE PRICE/SF SUBMARKET DATE Corporate Centre (3-7) Stockbridge 750,000 $165,000,000 $220 Cool Springs 3Q 2016 Bank of America Plaza Partners Group 436,000 $74,000,000 $170 Downtown 2Q 2016 Cool Springs Commons Jay Schuminsky 301,700 $58,265,000 $193 Brentwood 2Q 2016 Dover Centre Stockbridge 226,830 $44,500,000 $196 Cool Springs 2Q 2016 Commerce Center East Albany Road RE Partners 239,525 $42,500,000 $177 Aiport North 3Q Great Circle Road GC Essential Asset REIT 170,515 $41,300,000 $242 MetroCenter 2Q 2016 Vanderbilt University Medical Center Vanderbilt University 105,955 $28,957,605 $273 Cool Springs 2Q Vanderbilt Place Vanderbilt University 10,442 $5,737,040 $521 West End 4Q 2016 *Bold text denotes Colliers International transaction. Source: RCA Analytics 1. Airport North 2. Airport South 3. Brentwood 4. Cool Springs 5. Downtown 6. Green Hills/Music Row 7. MetroCenter 8. Rivergate/Hendersonville 9. West End DEFINITIONS Colliers Inventory - Statistical set consists of all office properties of more than 20,000 SF, including owner-occupied. The data set excludes properties that are for educational, medical and government use. While Colliers attempts to provide the most accurate data at the end of every quarter, revisions are made throughout the year accounting for discrepancies in past reporting. Class A Building - Most prestigious buildings competing for premier office users with rents above average for the area. Buildings have high quality standard finishes, state-of-the-art systems, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence. Class B Building - Buildings competing for a wide range of users with average rents. Building finishes are fair to good for the area, and systems are adequate; but the building does not compete with Class A at the same price. Class C Building - Buildings competing for tenants requiring functional space at rents below the average for the area. 3 4 Net Absorption - The net change in occupied space between the current quarter and the previous quarter, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy. SF - Square Feet Vacancy Rate - Percentage rate of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. 6 Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q 2016 Office Colliers International

7 Nashville Office Market MARKET BUILDINGS INVENTORY (SF) DIRECT VACANT (SF) SUBLEASE VACANT (SF) TOTAL VACANCY RATE 4Q ABSORPTION 2016 NET ABSORPTION (SF) AVERAGE RENTAL RATE PSF (GROSS)* AIRPORT NORTH Class A 12 2,297,092 87,226 3, % (596) 63,104 $21.13 Class B 36 2,444, , % 6,912 (6,923) $17.86 Class C 5 156,517 5, % 326 (2,683) $14.57 Total 53 4,897, ,516 3, % 6,642 53,498 $19.52 AIRPORT SOUTH Class A 1 96, % 0 0 $23.50 Class B 47 3,630, , % 11,480 74,669 $18.42 Class C 27 1,027, , % 4,928 23,722 $17.97 Total 75 4,754, , % 16,408 98,391 $18.25 BRENTWOOD Class A 28 3,080,719 81,576 35, % 69, ,915 $28.73 Class B 52 3,175,856 18,315 11, % 38,691 81,849 $24.45 Class C 6 239, % 0 3,397 $19.61 Total 86 6,496,127 99,891 46, % 107, ,161 $26.05 COOL SPRINGS Class A 38 5,483, ,645 29, % (53,620) 18,036 $29.48 Class B 52 2,114,420 56, % (31,497) (2,237) $24.03 Class C 5 148,865 1, % (1,700) (1,700) $23.30 Total 95 7,746, ,257 29, % (86,817) 14,099 $28.42 DOWNTOWN Class A 15 5,414, ,417 40, % 895, ,390 $29.63 Class B 45 4,632, , % 44,759 81,375 $25.02 Class C 29 3,147,858 84, % 8,700 6,327 $17.89 Total 89 13,194, ,126 40, % 949,361 1,013,092 $25.72 GREEN HILLS/MUSIC ROW Class A 9 1,296,678 55,464 12, % (154) 90,405 $34.76 Class B 36 1,578,759 18, % 23,855 13,541 $28.14 Class C ,234 7, % 2,470 2,205 $23.13 Total 60 3,544,671 81,677 12, % 26, ,151 $29.14 METROCENTER Class A 2 346,235 26, % (12,458) (12,458) $20.00 Class B 15 1,128,608 67, % 60,428 86,411 $18.79 Class C 6 327, % 0 0 $17.00 Total 23 1,802,450 93, % 47,970 73,953 $18.89 RIVERGATE/HENDERSONVILLE Class A 9 620,512 32, % 12,300 16,847 $23.38 Class B ,301 4, % 1,266 9,217 $21.46 Class C ,455 2, % 17,938 12,510 $17.13 Total 38 1,844,268 39, % 31,504 38,574 $20.24 WEST END Class A 18 3,023,304 53,423 10, % 6,989 33,439 $31.70 Class B 26 1,717,708 13, % (697) 17,118 $24.70 Class C ,251 5, % (3,540) (1,770) $20.74 Total 59 5,512,263 72,042 10, % 2,752 48,787 $30.64 MARKET Class A ,658, , , % 917,615 1,342,678 $28.13 Class B ,666,987 1,000,742 11, % 155, ,020 $21.82 Class C 124 7,339, , % 11,184 42,008 $16.16 MARKET TOTAL ,664,732 2,168, , % 1,101,934 1,739,706 $24.33 *Gross rates for existing office properties of more than 20,000 SF. 7 Nashville Research & Forecast Report 4Q 2016 Office Colliers International

8 502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 $2.3 Billion in annual revenue MARKET CONTACT: Janet Miller CEDC FM CEO & Market Leader janet.miller@colliers.com REGIONAL AUTHOR: Katie Barton CPRC Director of Research katie.barton@colliers.com Colliers International Nashville 523 3rd Avenue Nashville, TN Billion square feet under management 16,300 Professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with more than 16,300 professionals operating out of 502 offices in 67 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. Colliers International has been recognized and ranked by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing 100 for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.