Housing Bulletin Monthly Report

Transcription

1 December 21 1 Housing Bulletin Monthly Report Alberta Housing Starts Fall in November 21 Canada Housing Starts NOV 8 DEC 8 Preliminary Housing Starts in Alberta* and Canada* November 28 to November 21 JAN 9 FEB 9 MAR 9 APR 9 MAY 9 JUN 9 JUL 9 AUG 9 SEP 9 9 * Data reflects centres with a population of 1, and over. NOV 9 DEC 9 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 Canada MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 Alberta AUG 1 SEP 1 1 NOV 1 3,75 3, 2,25 1,5 75 Alberta Housing Starts Canada s total preliminary housing starts for November 21 were 13.6 per cent higher over October 21 and 5.4 per cent higher compared to November 29. According to ATB Financial economists, November s starts figure (1,572 units) is down quite substantially from October (1,93 units) and is, in fact, the slowest reading for Alberta housing starts since January 21. Alberta s November 21 total preliminary housing starts were 17.4 per cent lower compared to October 21 and 32.1 per cent lower when compared to November 29. Issue Highlights Housing Starts Starts decline annually in single- and multifamily sectors. Page 2 RBC Affordability Index Alberta remains most affordable for homeownership. Page 5 Unemployment Alberta s unemployment level declines. Page 6 Looking forward, we see steady improvement in provincial and local economies which will bode well for housing markets across the board ( RE/MAX). Alberta s housing sector has been moving counter to activity in the rest of the economy as spending, manufacturing and oil gas activity started picking up late summer, starts and the resale markets started cooling down (ATB Financial).

2 2 Actual Housing Starts Dip across All Seven Major Urban Centres 8 Actual Housing Starts Single-Detached (October Year-Over-Year 26-21) Across Alberta, single-detached housing starts fell 26.3 per cent from October 29 to October 21. Housing Starts Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Grande Prairie CA Lethbridge CA Medicine Hat CA Red Deer CA Wood Buffalo CA From October 29 to October 21 single-detached housing starts fell 19.1 per cent in Edmonton, and 31.1 per cent in Calgary. Red Deer recorded the largest drop in single-family housing starts, falling 56.6 per cent from 53 in October 29 to 23 in October Mixed Performance in Multi-Family Starts across Alberta Housing Starts Actual Housing Starts Multi-Family Dwellings (October Year-Over-Year 26-21) Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Grande Prairie CA Lethbridge CA Medicine Hat CA Red Deer CA Wood Buffalo CA Construction of multi-family dwellings in Alberta s seven major centres fell 1.6 per cent from October 29 to October 21. Multi-family starts increased 9.4 per cent in Calgary and saw no change in Grande Prairie. Lethbridge saw a jump in multi-family housing starts, rising from 6 in October 29 to 47 in October 21. Declines in multi-family housing construction were recorded in Edmonton (-22.3 per cent), Red Deer (-37.5 per cent), Medicine Hat (-1 per cent) and Wood Buffalo (-93.9 per cent). 11 (CMHC) The management of inventory and continued low level of apartment starts will constrain multi-family activity, which is projected to decrease slightly in 211 (CMHC). The management of inve

3 3 Average Vacancy Rates* and Average Apartment Rental Rates in Alberta s Major Urban Centres** October % $ % $ % $77 3.6% $ % $ % $ % $ % $2,94 Apartment vacancy rates decline across the province Most recent data shows average private apartment vacancy rates across Alberta s large urban centres decreased 16.9 per cent from October 29 (5.5 per cent) to October 21 (4.6 per cent). The largest drop occurred in the Wood Buffalo CA, where vacancy rates fell from 9.9 per cent in October 29 to 5.5 per cent in October 21. The most notable change in average rental rate* occurred in Grande Prairie, where rents dropped by 8.3 per cent. The Wood Buffalo CA countered this trend, with a 2.6 per cent increase in average rental rates from October 29 to October 21. A CBC news article notes that nationally, the highest vacancy rates are in Alberta, which was battered by the recession. However, high vacancy rates have not had a pronounced effect on rental costs. Calgary is the third most expensive city for renters and Edmonton is sixth most expensive (for a two-bedroom apartment). * Average vacancy and rental rates includes all unit types (i.e., Bachelor, 1-Bedroom, 2-Bedroom and 3-Bedroom+). ** Data includes centres with a population of 1, and over. Average Apartment Vacancy Rates* Average Monthly Apartment Rental Rates* % Change % Change from from October october october October October October October 29 to October October October October October 29 to October October Calgary CMA.5% 1.5% 2.1% 5.3% 3.6% -32.1% $851 $974 $1,31 $991 $ % Edmonton CMA 1.2% 1.5% 2.4% 4.5% 4.2% -6.7% $727 $859 $93 $916 $917.1% Grande Prairie CA.1% 4.9% 8.5% 15.5% 1.5% -32.3% $95 $1,41 $933 $87 $ % Lethbridge CA.6%.4% 1.8% 3.8% 4.1% 7.9% $631 $76 $775 $81 $ % Medicine Hat CA 1.% 1.4% 4.5% 9.3% 1.1% 7.5% $574 $625 $644 $655 $657.3% Red Deer CA.5% 2.7% 4.4% 9.2% 7.5% -18.5% $682 $786 $818 $793 $77-2.9% Wood Buffalo CA.2%.3%.5% 9.9% 5.5% -44.4% $1,65 $1,968 $2,19 $2,4 $2,94 2.6% Alberta**.9% 1.6% 2.5% 5.5% 4.6% -16.4% $781 $913 $975 $949 $ % ship housing (CMHC) The economic recovery that has taken place over the past year has boosted demand for both rental and ownership housing (CMHC). The economic recovery that

4 4 Sales Continued Downward Trend in November 21 Year-to-Year Comparison of Housing Resale Activity in Edmonton in the Month of November Average Price Average Year to Monthly Date single- days sales to Sales to Family duplex / on the Residential Residential Listings Listings dwelling Condominium Rowhouse Market Listings Sales Ratio Ratio Nov 6 $334,39 $212,596 $283, ,852 1, Nov 7 $376,267 $252,277 $311, ,729 1, Nov 8 $362,757 $231,531 $315, , Nov 9 $368,18 $231,684 $285, ,894 1, Nov 1 $362,657 $229,63 $318, ,86 1, Source: Realtors Association of Edmonton The average price of a single-family dwelling in Edmonton fell 1.5 per cent from November 29 to November 21. Over the same period, the average price of condominiums fell.9 per cent and increased 11.5 per cent for a duplex or rowhouse. An Edmonton home spent an average of 63 days on market in November 21, 31.3 per cent longer than in November 29. Listings in November 21 were down 1.8 per cent over November 29, and sales were down 11.2 per cent. Calgary s Housing Market Activity remains Subdued Year-to-Year Comparison of Housing Resale Activity in Calgary in the Month of November single-family dwelling Condominium Month New days Month New days Average End Listings on the Average End Listings on the Price Inventory Added Sales Market Price Inventory Added Sales Market Nov 7 $462,134 4,984 1,949 1,13 46 $312,71 2, Nov 8 $435,471 5,83 1, $285,82 2, Nov 9 $464,444 2,658 1,365 1,95 42 $294,264 1, Nov 1 $455,46 3,869 1, $284,667 1, Source: Calgary Real Estate Board The number of single-family homes sold in Calgary fell 18.6 per cent, and prices decreased 1.9 per cent year-over-year in November 21. New listings fell 3.4 per cent for single-family homes, and 1.4 per cent for condominiums from November 29 to November 21. According to a December 1, 21, news release by the Calgary Real Estate Board, the second half of 21 has proven to be weaker than expected, and Calgary s housing market is taking some time to regain traction. N) Edmonton is lagging slightly in comparison to other major markets, however all the indicators suggest that an increase in real estate sales is right around the corner (Realtors Association of Edmonton). Edmont

5 5 Affordability Index 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Affordability Measures Saw Further Easing in November * Proportion of regional pre-tax median household income required to service mortgage payments, property taxes and utilities for a single, detached bungalow. ** Q1 = January to March; Q2 = April to June; Q3 = July to September; Q4 = October to December. *** Population weighted average. Source: Royal Bank of Canada Economics Research Calgary Housing Prices Drop in September Teranet Index The Teranet National Bank House Teranet-National Bank House Price Index September 26 Price Index is an independent 2 to September 21, Calgary and select Canadian Cities representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices. 18 Calgary Montreal Ottawa The measurements are based on the Vancouver Halifax Toronto property records of public land registries. 16 The monthly indices cover six Canadian metropolitan areas: Vancouver, Calgary, 14 Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, and Halifax. Canadian home prices in September were 12 down 1.1 per cent from the previous month, according to the Teranet-National Bank 1 National Composite House Price Index. For the first time since February 29, prices 8 fell in all six of the metropolitan markets surveyed. The declines were 2.4 per cent in Halifax, 2.2 per cent in Calgary, 1.6 per cent in Toronto,.5 per cent in Ottawa, and.3 per cent in Montreal and Vancouver. According to the Teranet index, Calgary housing prices are consistently higher than the other metropolitan areas included in the index. Teranet House Price Index SEP 26 CANADA NOV 26 BRITISH COLUMBIA JAN 27 MAR 27 ALBERTA MAY 27 JUL 27 SASKATCHEWAN Source: Teranet and National Bank of Canada Q3** 29 Q2* 21 Q3* 21 SEP 27 NOV 27 RBC Affordability Index* MANITOBA JAN 28 MAR 28 ONTARIO MAY 28 QUEBEC JUL 28 SEP 28 ATLANTIC NOV 28 JAN 29 TORONTO MAR 29 MAY 29 MONTREAL JUL 29 In Q3 21, owning a single-detached bungalow in Canada consumed approximately 4.4 per cent of net household income. The share of household income taken up by the costs associated with owning a single-detached bungalow in Alberta fell slightly year-over-year from Q3 29 (34.4 per cent) to Q3 21 (32.5 per cent). Compared to other select Canadian major centres, home ownership remains more affordable in Edmonton (32.7 per cent) and Calgary (37.1 per cent) than in Montréal (41.7 per cent), Ottawa (38.2 per cent), and Vancouver (68.8 per cent). The proportion of net household income required to maintain a singledetached bungalow in Calgary fell 1.5 per cent from Q3 29 to Q3 21. Year-over-year, the share of income needed in Edmonton fell.5 per cent. herald, December 11, 21). Calgary is currently experiencing a buildup of pressure in prices (Calgary Herald, December 11, 21). Calgary is currently experiencing a buildup of pressure in prices (CAL VANCOUVER SEP 29 NOV 29 OTTAWA JAN 21 MAR 21 CALGARY MAY 21 JUL 21 EDMONTON SEP 21

6 6 Va l u e o f R e s i d e n t i a l Permits issued ($ millions) Unemployment Rate Building Permit Value Declines in Calgary but Rises in Edmonton September 21. Vancouver experienced the largest jump in residential building permits, with a year-over-year increase of 148. per cent in the total value of permits issued, followed by Victoria (48.7 per cent). Source: Statistics Canada 12% 1% $1,4 $1,2 $1, 8% 6% 4% 2% % $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Wood Buffalo/ Cold Lake 29 NOV 29 Unemployment Rate Declines Due in Pa rt to Drop in Workforce Athabasca/ Grande Prairie Edmonton Region According to ATB Financial s Senior Analyst, the drop is disturbing because it may indicate that job seekers might be growing discouraged and throwing in the towel on looking for work. * Seasonally adjusted. Source: Alberta Employment and Immigration Value of Residential Building Permits Issued October 29 to October 21 DEC 29 JAN 21 Unemployment Rate in Albert a Regions November 29 and November 21 Red Deer Region FEB 21 MAR 21 Banff/Jasper/ Rocky Mtn House Edmonton Calgary APR 21 Calgary Region MAY 21 Camrose/ Drumheller Toronto Vancouver JUN 21 Nov 29 Oct 21 Nov 21 Lethbridge/ Medicine Hat Residential permits issued in Alberta in October 21 totalled $48.7 million, a decrease of 25.2 per cent over October 29. From September 21 to October 21, the value of residential permits issued in Alberta fell 1.9 per cent. The total value of Edmonton residential building permits fell 51.6 per cent from October 29 to October 21, but rose 7.7 per cent from September to October 21. The Calgary Census Metropolitan Area issued residential building permits worth $237.4 million in October 21, a 6. per cent decrease from October 29 and an 11.1 per cent decrease over Overall, Alberta s unemployment rate fell from 7.1 per cent in November 29 to 5.6 per cent in November 21. This drop was due, in part, to thousands of Albertans leaving the job market in November, pushing the unemployment rate to the lowest level since January 29. Unemployment rose 1.1 percentage points in the Banff/Jasper/Rocky Mountain House region and 1.3 percentage points in the Wood Buffalo/Cold Lake region on a year-over-year basis. Unemployment was highest in the Calgary and Banff/Jasper/Rocky Mountain House regions in November 21, where it sat at 6.1 per cent. ion) Government doesn t know for certain what happened to the workforce dropouts. Interprovincial statistics don t support a loss of migrants (Alberta Employment and Immigration). Government doe JUL 21 Ottawa Victoria AUG 21 All of Alberta* SEP 21 All of Canada* 21