Summary of JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (No. 11, Oct. 2018)

Transcription

1 November 29, 2018 Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) Summary of JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (No. 11, Oct. 2018) We are pleased to release a summary of the results of the 11th JREI Global Property Value/Rent Indices (as of October 2018). Survey Results at a Glance (Change Rates during the Period from Apr to Oct. 2018) ( Office Market Bangkok: the highest growth rates in office building value and rent during the last six-month period among the monitored cities; expanding demand for office space from both domestic firms and foreign corporations amid Thailand s current strong economy, which has been showing one of the most robust trends in Southeast Asian nations. Tokyo: continuation of increasing office building value despite a concern about a glut of office space due to a large volume of new supply in 2018; stable office space demand owing to healthy corporate earnings; on-going cap rate compression under an easy lending environment. New York : flat value and rent movements; TAMI (Technology, Advertising, Media & Information) tenants and WeWork and other co-working space providers led the leasing market; market participants consensus on the Fed s intent of raising rates. : no major impact of impending Brexit on the office market; new investment in office buildings by foreign buyers, especially those from Asian nations; slight declines in both value and rent. Condominium Market As in the previous survey, Hong Kong was ranked No. 1 for the growth rate in condominium value among the surveyed cities (+6.8%). The residential market has been buoyant since the second half of 2016 in Hong Kong thanks to the active investment behaviors of people from mainland China. However, some pundits began to worry about the prospect of the market due to the recent stagnant stock markets and the trade frictions between the States and China. Office Building Value Change Office Building Rent Change Condominium Value Change Condominium Rent Change 6 month. Change 6 month. Change 6 month. Change 6 month. Change Bangkok 6.8% Bangkok 4.7% Hong Kong 6.8% Hong Kong 6.8% Hong Kong 5.8% Hong Kong 4.5% Seoul 6.3% Beijing 3.0% Osaka 5.2% Osaka 4.2% Bangkok 3.0% HCMC 1.9% Beijing 3.9% Singapore 3.7% Osaka 2.1% Bangkok 1.4% HCMC 3.9% Beijing 2.2% HCMC 1.9% Tokyo 1.1% Singapore 3.6% HCMC 1.1% Tokyo 0.5% Shanghai 0.8% Tokyo 2.9% Tokyo 0.7% Beijing 0.4% Osaka 0.3% Seoul 2.9% Seoul 0.5% Shanghai 0.3% Singapore 0.2% Shanghai 0.1% Taipei 0.3% Singapore 0.2% Taipei 0.1% New York 0.0% Shanghai 0.1% Kuala -0.8% Seoul -0.1% Taipei -0.1% New York -0.2% Taipei -1.0% Kuala -0.4% Kuala -0.8% -0.3% Jakarta -1.2% -0.6% -0.9% Kuala -0.6% New York -1.5% New York -1.2% Jakarta -2.0% Jakarta -2.0% -1.6% Jakarta -1.7% Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 1

2 1. Half-Year Growth Rate in Value/Rent Index by 1-1. Growth Rate in the Office Building Value Index (From April 2018 to October 2018) Figure 1-1 shows the half-year growth rate in the office building value index in each surveyed city. As of October 2018, the growth rate was highest in Bangkok (+6.8%) followed by Hong Kong (+5.8%). Tokyo experienced a continual increase in value amid both ongoing cap rate compression and investors concern over the possibility of an overheated market. Figure 1-1: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Office Building Value Index 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Apr-18 Oct-18-4% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Apr % 4.4% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 9.0% -0.1% 1.5% -0.3% 3.6% 0.9% 2.8% 0.0% -0.6% Oct % 5.2% 2.9% 3.9% 0.1% 5.8% -0.1% 3.6% -0.8% 6.8% -2.0% 3.9% 0.0% -0.9% 1-2. Growth Rate in the Office Building Rent Index (From April 2018 to October 2018) Figure 1-2 shows the half-year growth rate in the office building rent index in each surveyed city. As of October 2018, the growth rate was highest in Bangkok (+4.7%) followed by Hong Kong (+4.5%). Jakarta s rental rate trended downward as a large volume of office supply continued. Figure 1-2: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Office Building Rent Index 6% 4% Apr-18 Oct-18 2% 0% -2% -4% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Apr % 1.9% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 2.7% 0.0% 1.4% -0.4% 2.6% -2.2% 1.9% -0.5% -0.3% Oct % 4.2% 0.5% 2.2% 0.1% 4.5% 0.3% 3.7% -0.6% 4.7% -2.0% 1.1% -0.2% -0.3% Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 2

3 1-3. Growth Rate in the Condominium Value Index (From April 2018 to October 2018) Figure 1-3 shows the half-year growth rate in the condominium value index in each surveyed city. As of October 2018, the growth rate was highest in Hong Kong (+6.8%) followed by Seoul (+6.3%). In Seoul, the Moon administration began to tackle the issue of increasing housing prices by several government policies, such as raising the rates of relevant taxes, implemented in September Figure 1-3: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Condominium Value Index 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Apr-18 Oct-18-4% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Apr % 2.0% 5.6% 0.5% 0.7% 7.1% -1.0% 1.0% -0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.1% -2.8% -1.4% Oct % 2.1% 6.3% 0.4% 0.3% 6.8% -1.0% 0.2% -0.8% 3.0% -1.2% 1.9% -1.5% -1.6% 1-4. Growth Rate in the Condominium Rent Index (From April 2018 to October 2018) Figure 1-4 shows the half-year growth rate in the condominium rent index in each surveyed city. As of October 2018, the growth rate was highest in Hong Kong (+6.8%) followed by Beijing (+3.0%). The Chinese government is attempting to improve the apartment leasing market as a means of providing stable housing supply in order to alleviate the recent spike in housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai. Figure 1-4: Comparison of Half-Year Growth Rate of Condominium Rent Index 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Apr-18 Oct-18-4% Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York Apr % 0.1% -0.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% -1.3% -0.6% 2.0% -2.0% -0.7% -2.1% -0.8% Oct % 0.3% -0.1% 3.0% 0.8% 6.8% 0.1% 0.2% -0.4% 1.4% -1.7% 1.9% -1.2% -0.6% Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 3

4 2. Value/Rent Trend by (October 2010 =.0) Figure 2-1: Office Building Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Tokyo ] [ Osaka ] [ Seoul ] [ Beijing ] [ Shanghai ] [ Hong Kong ] [ Taipei ] [ Singapore ] Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 4

5 Figure 2-1: Office Building Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Kuala ] [ Bangkok ] [ Jakarta ] [ HCMC ] [ New York ] [ ] Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 5

6 Figure 2-2: Condominium Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Tokyo ] [ Osaka ] [ Seoul ] [ Beijing ] [ Shanghai ] [ Hong Kong ] [ Taipei ] [ Singapore ] Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 6

7 Figure 2-2: Condominium Value/Rent Indices (October 2010 =.0) [ Kuala ] [ Bangkok ] [ Jakarta ] [ HCMC ] [ New York ] [ ] Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 7

8 3. Value and Rent Comparison among Surveyed Cities (October 2018) 3-1. Value Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings Figure 3-1 shows the index number of the value per leasable square meter for a prime office building in the CBD of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District =.0). The value of the building in the local currency of each foreign city was converted to the value in the Japanese yen and indexed. (The same method was also applied to the office building rent comparison.) Figure 3-1: Value Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings 250 (Tokyo's Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of October 2018 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York 62.6 (*) Index number by city for the prime CBD office building value per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of October 2018 =.0) 3-2. Rent Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings Figure 3-2 shows the index number of the rent per leasable square meter on the typical floor of a prime office building in the CBD of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District =.0). Figure 3-2: Rent Comparison of Prime CBD Office Buildings 250 (Tokyo's Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of October 2018 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the prime CBD office building rent per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Marunouchi/Otemachi District as of October 2018 =.0) Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 8

9 3-3. Value Comparison of High-End Condominium Units Figure 3-3 shows the index number of the high-end condominium unit value per square meter in each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District in Minato Ward =.0). The value of the unit in the local currency of each foreign city was converted to the value in the Japanese yen and indexed. (The same method was also applied to the apartment rent comparison.) Figure 3-3: Value Comparison of High-End Condominium Units 250 (Tokyo's Moto Azabu District as of October 2018 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the high-end condominium value per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District as of October 2018 =.0) 3-4. Rent Comparison of High-End Condominium Units Figure 3-4 shows the index number of the high-end condominium rent per square meter in each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District in Minato Ward =.0). Figure 3-4: Rent Comparison of High-End Condominium Units 250 (Tokyo's Moto Azabu District as of October 2018 =.0) Tokyo Osaka Seoul Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei Singapore Kuala Bangkok Jakarta HCMC New York (*) Index number by city for the high-end condominium rent per square meter of each surveyed city (Tokyo s Moto Azabu District as of October 2018 =.0) Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 9

10 Global Property Value/Rent Indices In order to investigate the real estate market trend of some major cities in the world, we compiled the value/rent indices of surveyed assets, which were appraised by JREI staff valuers. Survey at a Glance Surveyed Cities : Tokyo, Osaka, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Kuala, Bangkok, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh (HCMC), New York, and (14 cities) Use : Office and condominium No. of Surveyed Assets : Six assets in each city (three office buildings and three condominiums) Survey Method : We compiled indices based on the appraised value or rent per square meter of each asset by assuming that the subject asset would be newly developed and sold or leased as of either April 1 st or October 1 st each year. Copyright by All rights reserved. No part of 10