Welcome to the Fall 2018 Breakfast Seminar

Transcription

1 Welcome to the Fall 2018 Breakfast Seminar Richmond Hill Country Club June 7, 2017 Presented by: MCAP Development Finance Group

2 AGENDA GTA Condo Market Outlook Presented by: Shaun Hildebrand, President, Urbanation MCAP High-Rise Condominium Land Value Report Presented by: David McCrossan, Director, Development Finance Group MCAP Lot Value Report Presented by: Bruno Iacovetta, Managing Director, Development Finance Group Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

3 GTA Condo Market Outlook MCAP Breakfast Seminar December 6, 2018

4 Headlines Shape Confidence February 2018 We just got the first real picture of the Toronto housing market and its ugly --Bloomberg News July 2018 June home sales slightly higher in the GTA --The Canadian Press November 2018 Toronto s homes sales climb in October and new listings fall --Globe and Mail

5 GTA Condo Market Key Facts 150,000 Condos Sold in Past 3 Years Condo Prices Up 50% in 3 Years Avg. Downtown Price > $1,000 PSF $100,000+ Income to buy Avg. Unit Avg. Condo Rent = $2, ,000 New Condos in Development Condo Vacancy Rate = 0.7%

6 Condo Rental Supply & Vacancy Rates Net Increase in Condo Rentals , , ,410 Share of Condo Stock Used as Rental Greater Toronto Area: 2007 to 2018 Average Condominium Vacancy Rates Greater Toronto Area: 2007 to % 32.6% 33.1% 32.7% 30.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 25.0% 20.0% 18.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0% 0.4% 10.0% Source: CMHC Source: Urbanation, CMHC

7 Downtown Toronto Stats Downtown Population = 870,000 Growth of 10,000 pp/year from 2011 to 2016 Downtown Toronto Employment = 565,000 5-year Avg. Job Growth = 20,000/yr

8 Back to Basics: Toronto Job Market GDP Growth Toronto...3.5% Ontario...2.1% Canada...1.8% Incomes growing in line with housing prices Annual Employment Growth Toronto CMA: 2002 to 2018* Unemployment and Wage Growth Toronto CMA 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60,000 annual avg. = 50,000 jobs 75,000 75, % 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Unemployment Rate (left axis) Wage Growth (right axis)* 3.2% 6.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% *YTD Sep-2018 Source: Urbanation, Statistics Canada *Wage growth estimates f or Ontario, 3-month mov ing av erage Source: Urbanation, Statistics Canada 58,000 added in City of Toronto (+3.9%) 72% in full-time work, 50% in office jobs Avg. HH Income in Downtown Toronto as of 2015 = $118,000 ~$125K today

9 Downtown Office Space 14.0% 12.0% Downtown Toronto Office Vacancy Rate Q to Q Downtown Toronto Office Space (SF) Completions 8,991, % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4,504,126 5,865, % 0.0% 2.3% Source: Cushman & Wakefield Source: Cushman & Wakefield

10 Downtown Office Development Source: architectsalliance, City of Toronto

11 Population Inflows National Immigration Targets , , , , ,000 Toronto is Canada s #1 destination for international migrants 120, ,000 Annual Population Growth & Net Migration Toronto CMA: 2002 to 2017 Net Migration Total Population Growth Annual avg. net migration = 77, ,090 97,667 73,841 Components of Net Migration Toronto CMA: ,131 80,000 13,450 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: Urbanation, Statistics Canada Net International migration Net interprovincial migration -36,755 Net intraprovincial migration Net non-permanent residents Requires an extra 8-10K housing units 82% of Net Migrants between 15 and Population 50,000 persons

12 Supply vs. Demographic Growth Total Annual Housing Completions Toronto CMA: 2002 to 2017 Net Migration vs. Completions & Price Growth Toronto CMA: ,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Apartment Share Detached Share Source: Urbanation, CMHC 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ratio of Completions to Net Migration (Units per 100 persons) Avg. Annual Resale Price Growth 9.4% % 6.9% Source: Urbanation, TREB, CMHC 17.3% % 17.0% 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% Underbuilding by at least 10K units

13 * GTA Ownership Affordability Measure 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Mortgage Payment on Average Priced Hom e as % Household Income Greater Toronto Area: 1990 to 2018* 50% Standard Max Lending GDS Ratio = 35% 23% 28% 34% 44% for detached 24% for condos *Based on 80% LTV, 5-y ear discounted mortgage rates and 25-y ear amortization Source: TREB, Bank of Canada, Urbanation Inc.

14 Detached vs. Condo Prices Average Resale Prices, Detached and Condo, 12-mth rolling avg. Greater Toronto Area: Jan-08 to Oct-18 Average Resale Price Gap, Detached and Condo, 12-mth rolling avg. Greater Toronto Area: Jan-08 to Sep-18 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $474,070 $400,000 Detached Avg. Condo Apt. Avg. 133% 91% $1,103,206 $1,010,101 $502,010 $545,481 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $210,515 $200,000 Price Differential Linear trend Apr-2016 $616,328 $550,000 $464,620 $200,000 $263,259 $100,000 $0 $0 Source: Urbanation, TREB Source: Urbanation, TREB

15 Condo Share of Total TREB Sales Condo Apartment Share of Total Resales, 12-mth rolling total Greater Toronto Area: Jan-08 to Oct-18 33% 31% 29% 27% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% 22.6% 22.6% 30.3% 29.5% 55% Condo Share in City of Toronto 45% Condo Share of GTA Homes <$700,000 Source: Urbanation, TREB

16 Condo Resale Activity by Price Range Change in Resale Condo Apartment Sales by Price Range GTA: YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2016 Under $400K -70% $ K 35% $ K 92% $ K 140% $1-1.9M+ 69% $2M+ 46% Source: Urbanation, TREB

17 Condo vs. Detached Sales & Price Growth Year-over-Year Change in TREB Sales: Detached vs. Condo Apartment Greater Toronto Area: Oct-2013 to Oct-2018 Year-over-Year Change in Avg. Price: Detached vs. Condo Apartment Greater Toronto Area: Oct-2013 to Oct % 30% 20% 40% 30% Detached Condo Apt 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Detached Condo Apt 20% 10% 0% -40% -50% -60% -10% -20% Source: Urbanation, TREB Source: Urbanation, TREB Condo>Detached for 37 months Detached>Condo for 5 months Detached>Condo for 62 months Condo>Detached for 19 months

18 Condo vs. Detached Resale Supply 18,000 16,000 Active TREB Listings: Detached vs. Condo Apartment GTA: 1998 to 2018, Oct periods 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Highest in 10 years Lowest in 16 years = 3.4 months of supply = 1.7 months of supply

19 Condo Resale Activity Trend 35,000 30,000 start of recession Condo TREB Resale Activity GTA: 12-m onth totals to Oct-18 removal of 35-yr. am. removal of 30-yr. am Fair Housing Plan 31,186 B-20 26,000 25,000 20,000 trendline 23,538 Stabilizing for 6 months 15,000 10,000 Source: Urbanation, TREB

20 Condo Resale Trend vs. Interest Rates Resale Condominium Activity and Borrowing Costs Greater Toronto Area: Q1-05 to Q % 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 5-Year Government of Canada Bond Yield (%) Resale Condo Activity: 4-Quarter Total 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: Urbanation Inc., TREB/MLS, Statistics Canada

21 Resale Condo Sales-to-Listings Ratio 80% Ratio of Condo Apartment Resales to Listings, 4-quarter m oving average Greater Toronto Area: Q to Q % 60% 50% 40% 66% Balanced Market 30% 20% *4 quarters to Q Source: Urbanation, TREB

22 Annual Growth in Resale Condo Prices PSF Annual Growth in Resale Condo Apartment Prices Per SF Greater Toronto Area: Q to Q % 30.0% 30.5% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Avg. = 7.8% 6.5% -5.0% -1.6% Source: Urbanation Inc.

23 Condo Resale Price Growth by Unit Type Year-over-Year Price Growth by Unit Type Greater Toronto Area: Q vs. Q Studio 16.8% 1B 1B+Den 10.9% 10.3% Average Resale Condo Prices by Unit Type GTA: Q $927,000 2B 7.5% $631,000 $716,000 2B+Den 2.6% $393,000 $466,000 $513,000 3B+ 3.3% Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS Studio 1 Bed 1 Bed+Den 2 Bed 2 Bed+Den 3 Bed Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS

24 Resale Price PSF Growth by Area Annual Change in Average Resale Condo Price PSF Regional Municipalities: Q vs. Q Former TO 12.5% Etobicoke Scarborough 9.2% 8.8% Peel Region Durham Region 7.7% 7.7% $926 Average Resale Condo Prices PSF Regional Municipalities: Q North York 4.8% $620 $469 $506 $447 $671 $528 Halton Region 2.7% York Region 1.1% Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS

25 Resale Price PSF Growth by Submarket Annual Change in Average Resale Condo Price PSF Submarkets with at least 100 sales in Q3-18 Downtown East CityPlace Downtown West Entertainment District North Midtown Mississauga City Centre Downtown Core Etobicoke Centre Liberty Village Harbourfront East Bloor/The Village Scarborough City Centre Scarborough North Etobicoke Waterfront Mississauga North Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS 12.9% 12.4% 11.6% 11.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.4% 9.3% 8.0% 7.7% 7.1% 16.6% 15.7% 15.4% 15.4% $1,058 $885 $890$898 $866 Average Resale Condo Prices PSF Regional Municipalities: Q $562 $989 $593 $849 $888$897 $543 $430 $717 $481 Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS

26 Quarterly New Condo Sales & Launches Quarterly New Condo Apartment Sales and New Launches Greater Toronto Area: Q to Q ,000 12,000 10,000 Sales Launches 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,738 +4% y/y Source: Urbanation Inc. New Supply > Demand Demand > Supply Demand = Supply

27 Annual New Condo Sales Annual New Condo Apartment Sales Greater Toronto Area: 2007 to 2018* 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Avg. 20,435 26,893 35,074 22, * *12 months to September 2018 Source: Urbanation Inc., TREB/MLS

28 Quarterly New Launch Absorption Rates 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% New Project Launch Absorption Rate Greater Toronto Area: Q1-08 to Q yr avg. = 53% 58% Large scale projects, high investor share Increased share of mid-rise projects + end-user buyers ***Opening quarter absorption rate above 55% for 11 straight quarters 20% 10% 0% Source: Urbanation Inc.

29 Total % Sold in Development 95% 90% Total Level of Absorption for New Condo Projects in Development Greater Toronto Area: Q to Q % Preconstruction Under construction Units % Sold 31,333 80% 67,581 95% 85% 80% Avg. = 79% Recently completed 21,748 99% 75% 70% 65% 60% Source: Urbanation, TREB

30 New Condo Unsold Inventory New Condo Apartment Unsold Inventory in Development Greater Toronto Area: Q to Q ,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 Avg. = 14,700 20,981 Preconstruction Unsold Units 6,380 10,000 7,500 5,000 2, ,160 9,927 Under construction Recently completed 3, Source: Urbanation Inc.

31 New Condo Months of Supply 25 Months of Supply of New Condo Inventory Greater Toronto Area: Q1-08 to Q yr avg. = 10.8 months Source: Urbanation Inc.

32 New Condo Price Growth vs. Construction Costs Annual Change in New Condo Prices and Construction Costs Greater Toronto Area: Q1-05 to Q3-18 Avg. Sold Index Price =$745 psf (Q3-18) 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Avg. Sold Price Index for New Condos High-rise Apartment Building Construction Price Index Avg. Sold Index Price =$595 psf (Q3-16) 11.2% 7.2% Represents less than 4% of total active units 0.0% New Condo Project Cancellations by Total units Greater Toronto Area : 2012 to % 4,077 Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada 1,402 1, YTD 2018 Source: Urbanation Inc.

33 New Condo Launch Price vs. Resale Price PSF Average Opening Prices for New Launches vs. Average Resale Prices Greater Toronto Area: Q1-15 to Q3-18 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 New Launch Avg. Opening Price PSF Avg. Resale Price PSF New Launch Price Trendline $150 $1,044 $250 $690 $600 $500 $400 Source: Urbanation Inc., TREB

34 New Condo Launch Price vs. Resale Price PSF New Launch vs. New Resale Prices GTA: Q3-08 to Q3-18 Difference: New Launch vs. New Resale Prices GTA: Q3-08 to Q3-18 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 New Launch Prices - 4 Qtr Avg. New Resale Yr. Old Builds $763 $688 $930 $807 $150 $100 $50 Median = $53 $123 $600 $0 $500 $400 -$50 $300 -$100 -$75 Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS

35 New Condo Market Activity by Area New Condo Apartment Sales by Area GTA: Q108 to Q3-18, 4-Quarter Totals Average New Condo Unsold Price PSF by Area GTA: Q1-09 to Q ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Former TO Outer ,179 6,532 5,182 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 Former TO Outer $170 $1,196 $849 $706 $347 $143 2,000 $400 0 $300 Source: Urbanation Source: Urbanation

36 New Condo Inventory by Submarket Top Submarkets by Available Inventory GTA: Q Unsold Units (L) Unsold Price PSF (R) $2,100 $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 $700 $500 Source: Urbanation

37 Unit Mix & Opening Absorption by Unit Type Other Unit Mix of New Condo Project Launches GTA: 2014 to YTD 2018 New Condo Opening Quarter Absorption by Unit Type GTA: Q4-14 to Q3-18, 4-quarter moving average 3B 2B 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 6.4% 6.7% 37.7% 33.4% 41.0% 43.4% 39.5% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Studio 1B 2B 3B 86% 73% 61% 1B 51.3% 56.4% 49.8% 47.3% 48.9% 50% 40% 30% 41% Studio 5.9% 5.1% 3.1% 1.3% 2.3% 20% YTD 2018 Source: Urbanation Source: Urbanation

38 Average New Condo Launch Size & Price: 416 Median Price City of Toronto: Nov-18 Detached.. $1,000,000 Semi...$905,000 Row/Town.$902,000 Average Unit Size (sf) of New Condo Units Launched City of Toronto: 2014 to YTD 2018 Average Unit Size (sf) of New Condo Units Launched City of Toronto: 2014 to YTD $733, $633, $463, $402,129 $393, YTD 2018 Source: Urbanation YTD 2018 Source: Urbanation

39 New Condo Development by Building Height Number of Projects Launched by Building Height GTA: 2014 to YTD 2018 Number of Projects Launched by Building Height (Storeys) GTA: 2014 to YTD , ,932 17,115 19,288 Less than Source: Urbanation Inc. Less than Source: Urbanation Inc.

40 Condo Rents and Lease Activity by Unit Type Average Condominium Rents by Unit Type Greater Toronto Area: Q Annual Change in Condominium Lease Transactions Greater Toronto Area: Q $2,720 $3,021 $3,691 Studio 1B 12% 32% $1,823 $2,056 $2,205 1B + Den 10% 2B -3% 2B + Den -8% Studio 1B 1B + Den 2B 2B + Den 3B+ 3B+ -10% Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS

41 Condo Rents PSF & Annual Growth $3.40 $3.20 $3.00 $2.80 $2.60 $2.40 $2.20 $2.00 Average Condo Rent Per SF and Y/Y Growth Greater Toronto Area: Q1-12 to Q3-18 Annual % Change (right) Average Rent PSF (left) 20.0% $ % 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 9.4% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Urbanation, TREB

42 Cost of Owning vs. Renting Average Condo Rental vs Ownership Costs 700 SF Unit, GTA: Q3-14 to Q3-18 $2,800 $2,600 $2,400 $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 Average Rent Mortgage + Condo Fees + Property Taxes $69 $299 $372 $2,282 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q3-16 Q3-17 Q3-18 $2,654 *Fixed unit size of 700 sf. Assumes 20% down payment, 25-year amortization and discounted 5-year rates. Source: Urbanation, TREB

43 Required Break-Even Rents Newly Completed Buildings = $3.50 psf $3.18 Break-Even Rents* for Condo Investors by Delivery Year GTA: % Required Rent Growth $5.32 $3.58 $3.75 $ *Assumes 20% down, 4% interest rate 2019+, 25-y r. amortization, includes condo f ees and taxes Source: Urbanation

44 Apartment Construction Levels 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Condo and Purpose-built Apartments Under Construction Greater Toronto Area: Q to Q Condo Purpose-built Rental 67,581 Completions Avg. Condo 20,000 Condo Rental...10,000 Purpose-built..3,000 Rental Supply Growth 13,000 Rental Demand...20,000 Supply Deficit.7,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 11,172 0 Source: Urbanation, CMHC

45 Condo Completions Trend New Condominium Apartment Completions Greater Toronto Area: Q4-05 to Q m onth rolling totals 35,000 30,000 30,734 25,000 20,000 21,816 15,000 10,000 11,701 5,000 0 Source: Urbanation Inc.

46 New Condo Resale and Rental Turnover Condo Turnover in First 12 Months Post Registration GTA: 2011 to 2018, 12 months to Q3 % Rented 32.6% 36.1% 34.7% % Resold 19.1% 24.9% 24.9% 29.0% 12.6% 8.0% 8.1% 4.3% 3.1% 2.5% 4.2% 4.5% 2.8% Source: Urbanation, TREB/MLS

47 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

48 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

49 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

50 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

51 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

52 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

53 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

54 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

55 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

56 History of Rental Development: Toronto CMA Source: architectsalliance, CMHC

57 New Purpose-built Vacancy & Availability Availability and Vacancy in Purpose-built Stock Constructed Since 2005 GTA: Q3-15 to Q % 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% Availability Rate Vacancy Rate 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 1.5% Avg. Rent for Units Built = $3.09 psf Avg. Rent for Units Completed in 2018 = $3.76 psf 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% Source: Urbanation

58 Purpose-built Rental Supply Pipeline 31,552 in City of Toronto 4-Quarter Inflow of New Proposed Rentals Greater Toronto Area: Q4-15 to Q3-18 Total Inventory of Proposed Puprose-built Rentals Greater Toronto Area: Q4-15 to Q ,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Rent Control Announcement 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 10,513 Rent Control Announcement 30,440 39,750 Source: Urbanation Source: Urbanation

59 Summary of Key Points Strong fundamentals and relative affordability are supporting GTA condominium demand Elevated prices, higher rates, and tighter credit will create headwinds Expect gradual movement back to long-term trend level of ~26K sales under stable economic conditions Low supply will continue to push prices and rents higher in the short-term Record completions and higher inventories starting in second half of 2019 will begin to restrain price and rent growth Risk that new condo prices could overshoot in near-term, could see more investor selling in post 2021 period More rental supply on the way, but will remain insufficient to meet demand

60 MCAP High-Rise Condominium Land Values For the period ending December 6, 2018 *Values based on gross buildable square feet **Values based on fully zoned and approved Richmond Hill Country Club June 7, 2017

61 Land Value Analysis Process Overview Land transactions are not assessed individually given their diverse nature This report serves as a forward looking estimate of land values in the short term for approved land Information from RealNet, Urbanation, Altus, and MCAP employed to undertake an extensive residual analysis process with the following considerations: Projects are assessed and rated by target market / grade of product relative to their submarket peers Sales / listing prices Unit sizes HST costs Building efficiency ratios Hard construction costs Soft costs Typical high-rise condominium builder profit assumptions Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

62 New Home Price Index Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

63 Price by Product Type Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

64 GTA High-Rise Land Overview 2018 YTD HR sales down 44% from record 2017 but consistent with High-Rise inventory still low (~11,000 units now v. ~17,000 on avg. before 2016) Only 272 units standing inventory # months condo supply at ~5.75 months across GTA 15% price appreciation in new units year over year, though growth moderating Very strong rental market continues to easily absorb condo supply (416 condo vacancy of <1% & average 416 condo rent of $3.77 psf) Construction (hard costs) & Development (DCs, interest) costs are up too with end unit values moderating LR prices moderating with HR prices having caught up Interest rates & mortgage approvals create headwinds to further HR price growth, though supply is low and rental demand is strong assume all largely offset Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

65 Downtown West $1,230/SF Average Unit Price $909,602 Average Sale Price ~7.0 Months Supply of Inventory Downtown West $180.0 $160.0 $140.0 $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $- Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $120/SF Median Land Value for High End = $210/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $160 to $170 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

66 Downtown East $983/SF Average Unit Price $845,350 Average Sale Price ~2.3 Months Supply of Inventory Downtown East $180.0 $160.0 $140.0 $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $- Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $120/SF Median Land Value for High End = $210/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $150 to $160/ SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

67 Downtown Core $1,351/SF Average Unit Price $1,314,306 Average Sale Price ~0.9 Months Supply of Inventory Downtown Core $250.0 $200.0 $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $- Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $170/SF Median Land Value for High End = $260/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $215 to $225 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

68 Toronto West $949/SF Average Unit Price $761,875 Average Sale Price ~15.5 Months Supply of Inventory Toronto West $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $- Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $65/SF Median Land Value for High End = $140/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $90 to $100 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

69 Toronto East $889/SF Average Unit Price $837,501 Average Sale Price ~2.9 Months Supply of Inventory Toronto East $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $- Spring 2012 $/SF Fall 2012 $/SF Spring 2013 $/SF Fall 2013 $/SF Spring 2014 $/SF Fall 2014 $/SF Spring 2015 $/SF Fall 2015 $/SF Spring 2016 $/SF Fall 2016 $/SF Spring 2017 $/SF Fall 2017 $/SF Spring 2018 $/SF Fall 2018 $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $60/SF Median Land Value for High End = $130/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $80 to $90 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

70 Bloor / Yorkville $2,089/SF Average Unit Price $3,797,257 Average Sale Price ~11.6 Months Supply of Inventory Bloor Yorkville $300.0 $250.0 $200.0 $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $- Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $170/SF Median Land Value for High End = $320/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $240 to $250 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

71 North Toronto $1,111/SF Average Unit Price $988,772 Average Sale Price ~7.8 Months Supply of Inventory North Toronto $180.0 $160.0 $140.0 $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $- Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $130/SF Median Land Value for High End = $220/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $160 to $170 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

72 North Yonge Corridor $911/SF Average Unit Price $692,590 Average Sale Price ~3.3 Months Supply of Inventory North Yonge Corridor $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $- Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $70/SF Median Land Value for High End = $115/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $85 to $90 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

73 HWY 7 / Yonge Corridor $652/SF Average Unit Price $599,893 Average Sale Price ~2.4 Months Supply of Inventory HWY 7 / Yonge Corridor $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $- Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $45/SF Median Land Value for High End = $65/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF Spring Fall $/SF $/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $60 to $65 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

74 Vaughan $749/SF Average Unit Price $726,972 Average Sale Price ~9.0 Month Supply of Inventory $70.0 Vaughan $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $- Spring 2014 $/SF Fall 2014 $/SF Spring 2015 $/SF Fall 2015 $/SF Spring 2016 $/SF Fall 2016 $/SF Spring 2017 $/SF Fall 2017 $/SF Spring 2018 $/SF Fall 2018 $/SF Median Land Value for Low End = $45/SF Median Land Value for High End = $80/SF MCAP Land Value Range for the Submarket = $55 to $65 / SF Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

75 Richmond Hill Country Club June 7, 2017

76 MCAP Lot Values For the period ending December 6, 2018 *Values based on standard builder financing terms **Values include all levies Richmond Hill Country Club June 7, 2017

77 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Sep 2018 GTA Total Low-Rise Inventory 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 16,500 Units 13.5 Mths. 1,878 Units 1.3 Mths. 5,132 Units 16.2 Mths Remaining Inventory # of Months Supply Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

78 GTA Low-Rise Demand & Supply 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, YTD Fall 2018 Annual New Sales Annual New Supply Remaining Inventory Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

79 York Region Inventory 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,812 Units 21 Mths. 1,000 0 Detached Link Semi Detached Townhouse Total Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

80 Peel Region Inventory 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,272 Units 16 Mths Detached Link Semi Detached Townhouse Total Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

81 Durham Region Inventory 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,575 Units 22 Mths. Detached Link Semi Detached Townhouse Total Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

82 Halton Region Inventory 1,400 1,200 1, Units 6 Mths Detached Link Semi Detached Townhouse Total Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

83 Townhouse Lot Values $36,000 $32,000 $28,000 $24,000 $20,000 $16,000 $12,000 $8,000 $4,000 $- York Peel Durham Halton GGH Jun-18 Dec-18 Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

84 30 F.F. 36 F.F. Detached Lot Values $27,000 $24,000 $21,000 $18,000 $15,000 $12,000 $9,000 $6,000 $3,000 $- York Peel Durham Halton GGH Jun-18 Dec-18 Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

85 40 F.F. Detached Lot Values $30,000 $27,000 $24,000 $21,000 $18,000 $15,000 $12,000 $9,000 $6,000 $3,000 $- York Peel Durham Halton GGH Jun-18 Dec-18 Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

86 GTA Average Serviced Lot Values $/FF $19,000 $17,000 $15,000 $13,000 $11,000 $9,000 $7,000 $5,000 $3,000 $14,188 / F.F. $12,344 / F.F. $12,250 / F.F. Townhouse F.F. 40 F.F. Richmond Hill Country Club December 6,

87 Richmond Hill Country Club June 7, 2017

88 Thank you for attending! Richmond Hill Country Club June 7, 2017