Table of Contents CITY OF BRANTFORD

Transcription

1 RESIDENTIAL MONITORING REPORT 2011

2 Table of Contents Title Page # Title Page # List of Tables I 7.0 Other Housing Demands and Trends 21 List of Figures II 7.1 Affordable Housing List of Appendices III 7.2 Social Housing 24 Executive Summary IV 7.3 Post Secondary Housing Introduction 1 Appendices Population and Household Growth Residential Construction Residential Construction - Historic Distribution Residential Construction - Wards Residential Construction - Building Permits Built Boundary and Greenfield Monitoring Built Boundary Greenfield Future Land Supply Short Term Land Supply Long Term Land Supply Market Trends CMHC - Housing Starts CMHC - Housing Completions CMHC - Housing Absorbed MLS - Single and Semi Detached Unit Sales MLS - Residential Sales Rental Market Vacancy Rates Rental Market - Townhome and Apartment Rents 20 CITY OF BRANTFORD

3 List of Tables Table # Title Page # 1 New Residential Units Constructed New Residential units Constructed by Ward Residential Construction: Permits Issued and Permit Value by Dwelling Type Built Boundary and Greenfield Monitoring: Total Units Constructed and Percent Distribution Built Boundary: Units Constructed by Dwelling Type Greenfield: Units Constructed by Dwelling Type A Short Term Land Supply: 5 Year Annual Average 11 7B Short Term Land Supply: Growth Management Strategy 11 8A Long Term Land Supply: 5 Year Annual Average 12 8B Long Term Land Supply: Growth Management Strategy 12 9 Brantford CMA: Historical Housing Starts by Total Units Brantford CMA: Housing Starts by Tenure Brantford CMA: Housing Completions by Tenure Table # Title Page # 19 Social Housing Waiting Lists by Type of Application and Persons Housed Social Housing Waiting Lists by Type Application and Persons Housed Laurier Brantford Off-Campus Housing Brantford CMA: Historical Housing Completions MLS Residential Units Sold Composition Ontario CMA s Vacancy Rates CMHC: Townhome Average Rental Rates by Bedroom Type CMHC: Apartment Average Rental Rates by Bedroom Type Brant-Brantford: Affordable Housing (AH) Projects Completed Brant-Brantford: Affordable Housing (AH) Projects Pending Construction Completion 23 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page I

4 List of Figures Figure # Title Page # 1 Population: Historic and Forecast Households: Historic and Forecast New Residential Units Constructed (excluding conversion units) 3 4 Average New Residential Units Constructed by Density 4 5 New Residential Units Constructed by Ward Built Boundary: New Units Constructed by Dwelling Type (%) Greenfield: New Units Constructed by Dwelling Type (%) Brantford CMA: Housing Starts by Dwelling Type Brantford CMA: Housing Completions by Dwelling Type Brantford CMA: Housing Absorbed (sold) Brantford MLS: Total Single and Semi Detached Units Sold Annually Brantford MLS: Single and Semi Detached Total Value of Units Sold Annually Brantford MLS: Total Residential Sales by Housing Form Brantford CMA: Apartment Vacancy Rates CITY OF BRANTFORD Page II

5 List of Appendices Appendix # Title Page # 1 Ward Boundaries 27 2 Official Plan Schedule 1-1 Growth Management 28 3 Residential Monitoring Map 29 4 Land Supply Methodology 30 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page III

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Residential Construction In 2011, residential construction activity decreased below historic averages for residential construction in the City. A total of 311 new residential units were constructed in 2011 which is 20% below the 15 year average of 377 units. The total residential building permits issued for 2011 was also below the historic average, a total of 158 residential building permits were issued in 2011 which is 47% below the 15 year average of 299. Residential construction in the City has been on a downward trend over the past few years; new residential units constructed annually have declined each year since 2006 with the exception of The increase in 2010 can be attributed to 120 affordable housing units built through the City s Affordable Housing Program. The low construction figures for new residential units can be attributed to a decrease in the construction of single detached homes, which are historically the most popular housing form in the City. When compared to the City s 15 year average, the construction of single detached units in 2011 was 49% below the historic average. Whereas, in 2011 the construction of townhomes increased by 78% over the 15 year average and the construction of apartments was even with historic levels. Places to Grow The Places to Grow Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe has established intensification targets that require municipalities by the year 2015 and each year after to ensure that a minimum of 40% of a municipality s residential construction occurs in the built boundary. In 2011, 47% of the City s residential construction occurred within the built-boundary, and 53% was in Greenfield areas. Thus, in 2011 the City achieved the intensification target. Provincial Policy Statement 2005 Under the Provincial Policy Statement 2005, municipalities must maintain at all times a 3-year short term supply of land available for residential development and a 10-year long term supply. Overall, the City is currently achieving both targets, using the five year average of 372 for annual units constructed. The City has a total short term supply of 6.7 years and a total long term supply of 19.9 years. A point of concern is the low supply of land for low density residential units in which the short term supply is 2.1 years and the long term supply is 13.3 years. Market Trends Market Trends data from the CMHC indicate that the Brantford CMA and other surrounding CMA s such as Guelph, Hamilton, Kitchener, and London all had below average years for new residential construction. In 2011, 428 residential units were started in the Brantford CMA which is 12% below the historic 10 year average of 428. The total new residential units completed were 350, which is 20% below the historic average of 435. The average price of new homes in the Brantford CMA has risen significantly. According to CMHC, the average price of a newly constructed home rose by $130,000 or 58% between 2007 and The 2011 price for a newly constructed home was $353,197. The average price of resale homes in 2011 according to MLS data was $237,133; this figure represents all housing forms (i.e. singles, semi s, townhomes, and apartments). The average price of a single detached home, which is the most prevalent housing form in the City, was $252,404. Affordable Housing Through the City s affordable housing program, one project consisting of 40 units was completed in This figure is below the target of 180 new affordable housing units to be built annually. The affordable housing target is outlined in Subsection of the City s Official Plan. In 2012, two projects are scheduled for completion with a total of 56 total units and one project is slated for completion in 2013, with an estimated unit count of 4. Subsection of the City s Official Plan has policy provisions which prohibit the conversion of rental units to condominiums outside of the downtown core unless the vacancy rate has been 3% for 3 consecutive years. In 2011, the vacancy rate dropped to 1.7%. Vacancy rates below 3% are indicative of an undersupply of rental properties. CITY OF BRANTFORD Page IV

7 1.0 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to analyze the 2011 residential growth and market trends within the City of Brantford and examine the status of the City in regards to meeting the targets outlined in Provincial planning policies. City Council, in its Community Strategic Action Plan, has outlined the following long term goal: Brantford will be known as a City that manages growth wisely. The residential monitoring report is an essential tool in monitoring current and forecasted residential growth trends. In accordance with the City of Brantford s Official Plan policy, the City is required to maintain a residential monitoring system to be revised and updated on a regular basis as an indicator for the City s residential market. The report provides information regarding building stock, future land supply, housing market trends, conformance with Provincial policies, and other housing demands and trends. The primary objectives of this report are: To analyze demographic, economic, and construction trends; To assist City Council in assessing the effectiveness of housing related policies and regulations contained in its Official Plan and Zoning By-law; and, To inform local residents, the development industry and other interested individuals of local housing activity. CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 1

8 2.0 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH Figure 1 summarizes the historic and forecasted population growth for the City Figure 2 represents the historic and forecasted growth of households in the of Brantford. According to the 2011 Census, the population in the City of Brantford is 93,650 (excluding undercount). Between 2006 and 2011 the City grew by creased by 6.5% (1.3% annually). The forecasted level of household growth City. Between 2006 and 2011 the total number of households in the City in- 3.8% (0.8% annually). The level of population growth is slightly below the 4.4% between is 34% (1.7% annually). It is important to note that (0.9 annually) experienced between household growth is expected to out pace population growth, which indicates The City s 2009 Development Charges Background Study forecasts that over that the average household size and persons per unit (PPU) will decrease in the next 20 years, the City s population is expected to grow by 29%, representing an annual growth rate of 1.5%. the City. Figure 1 - Population: Historic & Forecast Figure 2 - Households: Historic & Forecast Source: City of Brantford - Development Charges Background Study, 2009 and Statistics Canada: 2011 Census, 2012 Note: All population figures exclude the Census undercount CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 2

9 3.0 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION Residential construction in the City has fluctuated with periods of highs and lows over the past 15 years. Between 1997 and 2011, residential construction in the City was relatively low. Construction activity significantly increased between , which may be attributed to factors such as the completion of the Highway 403 extension to Brantford and the relatively high level of industrial development that ensued. The recent decline may be attributed to factors such as the economic downturn and native land claim disputes. In 2011, 311 new residential units were constructed in the City. The total is 18% below the 15 year average of 377 units and represents the second lowest residential unit construction total in the last 10 years. As of 2006, residential construction has generally decreased in the City, reaching the lowest point of the decade in 2009 with 244 units constructed. Figure 3 - New Residential Units Constructed (excluding conversion units) Source: City of Brantford - Planning Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 3

10 3.1 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION - HISTORIC DISTRIBUTION Table 1 illustrates a historic breakdown of residential units constructed in the City by unit/dwelling type. Historically, single detached (SD) units have dominated the residential construction market. However, since 2006 the construction of (SD) dwelling units has decreased annually with the exception of In 2011, the downward trend reemerged as 130 (SD) homes were constructed which is well below the 5 year average of 201 (SD) units. Table 1 - New Residential Units Constructed SD Semi s Plexes (2-6 units) Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2012 TH Apt Total yr Avg yr Avg yr Avg Total 3, ,667 Figure 4 illustrates new residential units constructed in the City by density type over a period of 15 years. The prevalent trend is that the mix of housing types comprising new residential unit construction is changing. Construction of (SD) units is decreasing and the construction of medium density and high density forms is increasing, while the overall total residential units constructed is declining. The increase in the construction of housing forms other than (SD) may be attributed to a host of factors such as supportive Provincial policies (i.e. Places to Grow), and a shift in housing demand due to demographic changes (i.e. empty nesters, seniors). Figure 4 - Average New Residential Units Constructed by Density CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 4

11 3.2 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION - WARDS Table 2 displays the location of new residential units constructed in the City between 2002 and 2011 by Ward. Over the last 10 years, 80% of the residential units constructed in the City occurred in Ward 1 and Ward 4 respectively. The majority of Greenfield land for residential units are located in Ward 1 and Ward 4. A modest level of construction for residential units occurred in Ward 2 and Ward 5 over the 10 year period, while Ward 3 had the lowest level of residential unit construction. Figure 5 - New Residential Unit Constructed by Ward New Residential Units - Distribution (%) by Ward Ward 5 16% In 2011, similar trends occurred as the majority of residential development occurred in Ward 1 and Ward 4. Figure 5 illustrates that 52% of all residential development occurred in Ward 1 while 29% occurred in Ward 4, and 16% of residential development occurred in Ward 5. See appendix 1 for mapping of Ward boundaries. Ward 4 29% Ward 1 52% Ward 3 0% Ward 2 3% Table 2 - New Residential Unit Constructed by Ward WARDS Total by Area Ward ,862 Ward Ward Ward ,049 Ward Total ,708 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 5

12 3.3 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION - BUILDING PERMITS Table 3 outlines the 15 year history of building permits issued, permit values, and average permit values for residential construction in the City. The total residential permits issued in the City has decreased annually since 2003, while total permit values and average permit values has increased. Typically, permits issued for higher density housing forms provides higher permit values and average permit values. The relatively low number of total permits issued may be attributed to a drop off in single detached permits issued. In 2011, 129 permits for single detached units were issued, representing a 49% decrease below the historic 15 year average for single detached permits issued. The total permits issued for new residential construction issued in 2011 was (158), which is below the past 5, 10, and 15 year averages. Table 3 - Residential Construction: Permits Issued & Permit Value by Dwelling type Year SingleDetached Duplex, Triplex, Fourplex Multiple Residential Total Permits Issued Permit Value ($) Average Permit Value ($) Permits Issued Permit Value ($) Average Permit Value ($) Permits Issued Permit Value ($) Average Permit Value ($) Permits Issued Permit Value ($) Average Permit Value ($) ,527,000 85, ,000 49, ,422, , ,690,000 85, ,479,000 81, ,000 19, ,310, , ,999,000 87, ,780,000 87, ,000 8, ,974,000 82, ,841,000 83, ,210,000 79, ,000 10, ,867, , ,270,450 77, ,660,000 84, ,500 22, ,727,000 97, ,956,500 80, ,092,000 88, ,000 29, ,859, , ,334,000 97, ,457,000 87, ,000 26, ,423, , ,308,000 89, ,455, , , , ,213, , ,203, , ,046, , , , ,936, , ,302, , ,698, , , , ,637, , ,676, , ,513, , ,519, , ,098, , ,130, , ,577, , , , ,511, , ,898, , ,332, , ,100, , ,284, , ,716, , ,887, , ,730, , ,943, , ,560, , ,737, , , , ,115, , ,457, ,411 5 Year Avg ,409, , ,152, , ,790, , ,352, , Year Avg ,379, , , , ,701, , ,858, , Year Avg ,163, , , , ,687, , ,489, ,292 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 6

13 4.0 BUILT BOUNDARY & GREENFIELD MONITORING The Built Boundary is a line that demarcates the areas of a municipality developed prior to the implementation of the Provincial Places to Grow Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in June, The Built Boundary enables the Province and municipalities to measure intensification, infill, and redevelopment within the built-up-area. It also delineates Greenfield areas, which are defined as lands outside of the Built Boundary with a potential for development. Key policy objectives outlined in the Growth Plan are the establishment of intensification targets. The targets specify that by 2015 and each year after, a minimum of 40% of new residential development will occur inside of the built-up-areas of each upper or single tier municipality and greenfield development will have a density of 50 residents and/or jobs per hectare by The City of Brantford s Official Plan identifies the Built Boundary for the City and other designated growth areas as a result of the Growth Plan (see appendix 2). Table 4 outlines the historic distribution of new units constructed in the Built Boundary. In 2011, the City exceeded the 40% infill target for the third consecutive year, with 47% of all new development within the City s Built Boundary. Since implementation in 2006, the average rate of infill development within the Built Boundary is 44%, which is above the required target. However, a significant contributor to the City s infill success is the Affordable Housing Program (AH), which subsidizes the development of rental housing projects through funding from senior levels of government. The projects are typically medium - high density apartments units. If AH projects were removed from annual infill totals, the City would not be achieving the required infill target. Going forward, to ensure the City consistently achieves the infill target, infill development should be encouraged/promoted. The City s intensification strategy, to be completed by the fall of 2012, identifies opportunities to promote infill development/redevelopment within the City s Built Boundary. Table 4- Built Boundary & Greenfield Monitoring : Total Units Constructed & Percent Distribution Greenfield Units (%) Built Boundary Units (%) Greenfield Units Built Boundary Units Total Units % 41% % 32% % 51% % 52% % 47% % 44% 1, ,967 Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 7

14 4.1 BUILT BOUNDARY Table 5 displays a historic breakdown of units constructed in the Built Boundary from Between 2007 and 2011, a total of 857 new units were constructed. The majority of units constructed over the 5 year time period were apartments, townhomes, and single detached units. Figure 6 illustrates the composition of new units constructed in the Built Boundary in 2011 by percent. A diverse range of new units were constructed, with the major of dwelling units constructed as follows: apartments (41%), single detached (22%), and townhomes (21%). The diverse mix of housing forms may be attributed to Provincial policy which encourages intensification and the efficient use of existing lands and infrastructure. However, as stated in section 4.0, numerous apartment units were constructed through assistance from the Affordable Housing program. Therefore, the private market for apartment units may not be as strong as the numbers indicate. (See section 7.1 and 7.2 for a breakdown of affordable housing projects completed and pending completion). Table 5 - Built Boundary: Units Constructed by Dwelling Type Built Boundary SD Semi s Plexes (2-6 units) TH APT Other Total Total Figure 6 - Built Boundary: New Units Constructed by Dwelling Type (%) 2011 In 2011, construction of units in the Built Boundary followed historic trends. Townhomes and apartments were the prevalent dwelling form, followed by single detached units, as illustrated in figure 6. It should be noted that the construction of single detached units has decreased annually with the exception of As developers look for redevelopment opportunities within the Built Boundary, it is likely that higher density housing forms will be the most cost effective option. Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 8

15 4.2 GREENFIELD Table 6 displays the historic breakdown of units constructed on designated greenfield lands between Over the 5 year period 1,110 units were constructed on greenfield lands. Historically, construction on Greenfield lands have consisted primarily of single detached units (72%), townhomes (17%) and apartments at (11%). In 2008, 120 units were built for a seniors residence which is classified as an apartment structure. Figure 7 illustrates the percent distribution of new units constructed on greenfield lands in A large proportion of the units constructed on greenfield lands were townhomes, which varies from the historic composition illustrated on table 6. This may indicate a growing market demand for medium density housing forms. It should be noted that the Places to Grow Growth plan requires that by the year 2031 all development on greenfield lands, both employment and residential, must have a combined overall density of 50 people and/or jobs per hectare. To date, the majority of development on greenfield lands have been low density forms. However, it should be noted that medium and high density housing forms are typically the last forms to be completed in subdivisions. Table 6 - Greenfield - Units Constructed by Dwelling Type Greenfield SD Semi s Plexes TH APT Total * Total ,110 * Construction of a seniors residence Figure 7 - Greenfield: New Units Constructed by Dwelling Type (%) 2011 It is recommended that the City continue to monitor residential development on greenfield lands to ensure that higher density housing forms are built in conformity with existing secondary plans. Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 9

16 5.0 FUTURE LAND SUPPLY The Provincial Policy Statement 2005 requires that municipalities maintain a three-year short term and ten-year long term supply of land to accommodate residential growth at all times. Short term land supply is comprised of appropriately zoned land to accommodate residential intensification or redevelopment and land in draft approved and registered plans of subdivision. Land classified under the short-term housing supply category is readily available to the market to meet new housing demand, without major constraints. The long-term residential land supply includes the short-term units, plus vacant sites that have a general capability for future residential development. However, these sites are not immediately ready for residential development although the Official Plan designates some of the sites as Residential Areas. Significant servicing and environmental constraints can affect the ability of the sites to be developed and the number of potential units that can be constructed. Subdivision applications received by the City for consideration which have not been draft approved are typically classified within the long-term land supply. Redevelopment sites include: residential conversions throughout the City, former commercial sites (grey fields), brownfield sites, and the City s Urban Growth Centre. To effectively evaluate the City s short and long term residential land supply, the rate of subdivision construction and capacity for new dwelling units within Brantford must be evaluated. The dwelling units are categorized by density type. The permitted uses for the density types are defined in the City of Brantford s Official Plan as: Residential Area - Low Density: Permitted uses include single-detached, semi-detached, duplex and triplex residential dwellings. Residential Area - Medium Density: Permitted uses include townhouse, row house, fourplex, low-rise apartments, and other forms of low-rise multiple unit dwellings. Residential Area - High Density: Permitted uses include apartments and other forms of multiple-unit dwellings. The short and long term land supply needs for the City of Brantford are calculated using two growth scenarios. The first scenario represents a 5 year annual average of the City s rate of growth which is 372 units. The second scenario uses the methodology outlined in the City of Brantford Development Charges Background Study 2009 which applies the figure of 644 new residential units created annually, which is the annual growth needed for the City of Brantford to achieve the population targets outlined in the Places to Grow Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Each growth scenario is subdivided to calculate the land supply for low, medium, and high density units. (See Appendix 4 for methodology). See Appendix 3 - Residential Monitoring Map CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 10

17 5.1 SHORT TERM LAND SUPPLY The PPS, 2005 short term land supply policy requires municipalities to maintain a three year supply of land with servicing capacity within its municipal boundary. Table 7(A-B) displays the break down of short term land supply in the City using two growth forecasts. The growth management strategy which represents the average annual units needed to achieve the City s Places to Grow population target and the 5-year annual average forecast which represents the City s five year average for residential units constructed. It should be noted that the City s Urban Growth Centre (UGC) has substantial redevelopment potential for residential development in the City s downtown area. The City s Intensification Strategy to be completed Sept/2012 will quantify the potential redevelopment opportunities in the City s UGC and other areas in the City such as intensification corridors. Table 7A displays the land supply potential using the average annual units built over the past 5 years. The City has a short term land supply of 6.7 years which is in compliance with the 3 year short term land supply policy set in the PPS, It should be noted that the supply of land for low density development (i.e. singles, semi s) is below the 3 year marker. Table 7B displays the short term land supply using the growth management strategy forecast. This projection indicates that the City would have a 3.9 year supply. As noted with the discussion about table 7A, the land supply for low density units is considerably below the 3 year marker at 1.1 years. Overall, the City is in compliance with the short term land supply policy of the PPS, 2005 based on the most recent residential growth trends in the City. It should be noted that the short term supply of land for low density units is below 3 years using both forecasts. If residential construction increases to the levels previously forecasted, the City will need to increase its short term land supply by having serviced lands available for residential development and supporting intensification development in the designated UGC and intensification corridors. Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2012 Table 7A - Short Term Land Supply: 5 Year Annual Average SHORT TERM LAND SUPPLY: 5-YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE UNITS BUILT UNITS/YEAR % Distribution of New Units Average Annual Units Built Short Term Growth Units Land Supply Years LD 57% MD 25% HD 18% 67 1, Total 100% 372 2, Table 7B - Short Term Land Supply: Growth Management Strategy SHORT TERM LAND SUPPLY: GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY UNITS/YEAR % Distribution of New Units * Totals may be off due to rounding Average Annual Units Built Short Term Growth Units Land Supply Years LD 60% MD 19% HD 21% 135 1, Total 100% 644 2, CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 11

18 5.2 LONG TERM LAND SUPPLY The PPS, 2005 long term land supply policy requires municipalities to maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 10 years. Figure 8A-8B) display the City s long term land supply projections using two growth scenarios. The 5-year annual average forecast displayed as Table 8A indicates that the long term land supply available in the City is 19.9 years which is above the 10 year requirement. The growth management strategy forecast displayed as table 8B indicates an overall supply of 11.5 years which is close to the 10 year marker. It should be noted that the supply of low density land would be 7.2 years which is below the land supply requirement. Overall, the City is meeting the PPS 10 year land supply requirement. However, there is some concern with the long term supply of land for low density housing forms. As discussed in the short term supply section 5.1, if residential development in the City increases to the level previously forecasted, the City may have an issue with its short and long term land supply for residential development in the City. It should be noted that when calculating land supply it is difficult to calculate the redevelopment potential of existing sites. Redevelopment through intensification typically occurs as a mechanism of market demand and the price of land. The City has several brownfield and greyfield sites which have high redevelopment potential that can contribute positively to the City s land supply totals. Also, the Urban Growth Centre has great potential for redevelopment and intensification. This potential is not included in land supply calculations. Table 8A - Long Term Land Supply: 5-Year Annual Average LONG TERM LAND SUPPLY: ANNUAL AVERAGE UNITS BUILT UNITS/YEAR % Distribution of New Units Average Annual Units Built Long Term Growth Units Land Supply Years LD 57% 212 2, MD 25% 93 2, HD 18% 67 2, Total 100% 372 7, Table 8B - Long Term Land Supply: Growth Management Strategy LONG TERM LAND SUPPLY: GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY UNITS/YEAR % Distribution of New Units Average Annual Units Built Long Term Growth Units Land Supply Years LD 60% 386 2, MD 19% 122 2, HD 21% 135 2, Total 100% 644 7, * Totals may be off due to rounding Source: City of Brantford: Planning Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 12

19 6.0 MARKET TRENDS This section represents market analysis information provided by various sources such as; The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). CMHC provides information on housing trends, conditions and key factors driving the Canadian housing markets. Discrepancy between the CMHC data and statistics provided in other sections of this report are based on the tracking process. The numbers referenced in other sections of this report are based on residential building permits issued by the City of Brantford Building Department. Once a building permit is issued, construction on the site may not start immediately and could be held up indefinitely. CMHC data for this report focuses on new homes within the Brantford Census Metropolitan Area*. The Brantford CMA is comprised of The City of Brantford and Brant County. Multiple Listing Systems (MLS) data. The Brantford Regional Real Estate Association provides MLS data. The listings are limited to single and semi-detached units only. The CHMC data refers to three primary housing tenures: Freehold: Ownership of land and buildings (house) by one person (or two, such as joint ownership by spouses). Detached and semi-detached homes, duplexes and townhouses are usually owned freehold. Condominium: A unit, usually in a highrise or lowrise, or a townhouse that can be owned. You own the unit you live in and share ownership rights for the common space of the building. Common space includes areas such as corridors, the grounds around the building, and facilities such as a swimming pool and recreation rooms. Condominium owners together control the common areas through an owners association. The association makes decisions about using and maintaining the common space. Rental: Tenant based properties. *Census Metropolitan Area (CMA): is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centered on a large urban area (known as the urban core). A CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000 of which 50,000 or more must live in the urban core. To be included in the CMA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 13

20 6.1 CMHC - HOUSING STARTS The CMHC defines housing starts as the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part on the structure. Table 9 displays Housing Starts by census metropolitan area (CMA) between 2002 and In 2011, 428 homes were started in the Brantford CMA. Total home starts were below the historic average of 484 units. Table 10 - Brantford CMA: Housing Starts by Tenure Freehold Condominum Rental Units % Units % Units % % 68 13% 66 13% % 81 19% 70 16% Figure 8 - Brantford CMA: Housing Starts by Dwelling Type 2011 Figure 8 illustrates the composition of the new units started in the Brantford CMA. Single detached units represented over half of the new homes started (54%). Although this is a high proportion, the 2011 figure is below the CMA s overall housing stock average of approximately 67-72%. The emergence of row (town home) units as viable housing options may be the cause of the decrease. Table 10 displays housing starts by tenure The majority of homes were constructed for freehold tenure (65%), while condominium and rental units each represented 19% and 16% respectively. Compared to other CMA s within close proximity, the rate of home starts in Brantford is relatively low. However, the majority of CMA s experienced significant a decrease in total units started when compared to their 10 year averages. The Brantford CMA s decrease was modest when compared against CMA s such as Guelph, Hamilton, and London. Table 9 - Brantford CMA: Historical Housing Starts by Total Units Avg 2011 % differential from Avg Brantford % Guelph 1, , , , % Hamilton 3,803 3,260 4,093 3,145 3,043 3,004 3,529 1,860 3,562 2,462 3,176-22% Kitchener 4,130 3,955 3,912 3,763 2,599 2,740 2,634 2,298 2,815 2,954 3,180-7% London 2,604 3,027 3,078 3,067 3,674 3,141 2,385 2,168 2,079 1,748 2,697-35% St.Catharines / Niagara 1,317 1,444 1,781 1,412 1,294 1,149 1, ,086 1,110 1,259-12% Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 14

21 6.2 CMHC - HOUSING COMPLETIONS Housing completions are defined as the stage at which all proposed construction on the building has been performed; although under some circumstances, a building may be counted as complete where up to 10% of the proposed work remains to be done. Figure 9 - Brantford CMA: Housing Completions by Dwelling Type 2011 Table 12 displays new Homes Completed in CMA s between 2007 and In 2011, the total homes completed in the Brantford CMA was 350. The figure was 24% below the historic average of 435. The primary type of dwelling units completed was single detached, followed by row (town homes) and apartments. Table 11 - Brantford CMA: Housing Completed by Tenure Freehold Condominium Rental Units % Units % Units % % 59 15% 75 19% % 38 11% 12 3% Table 11 illustrates the distribution of units completed by tenure. The majority of units completed were home-ownership (freehold) units, which correlates with a high proportion of single detached units completed as shown on Figure 9. The rental units completed was well below the 2010 total. This may be attributed a low number of affordable housing units created through the City s affordable housing program (see section 7.1 and 7.2) On average, the total homes completed in the Brantford CMA is well below that of surrounding CMA s. Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2012 Table 12 - Brantford CMA: Historical Housing Completions Avg 2011% Diff from Avg Brantford Guelph Hamilton 3,347 2,717 2,721 3,178 2,717 2, Kitchener 3,176 2,210 2,854 2,440 2,535 2, London 2,787 3,140 1,510 2,707 2,102 2, St. Catharines/ Niagara 1, , , CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 15

22 6.3 CMHC - HOUSING ABSORBED Housing absorbed (sold) is defined as; when a binding, non-conditional agreement is made to buy or rent a dwelling that is newly constructed. Figure 10 displays a price breakdown of new units sold by CMA between 2007 and Historically, the price of new homes in the Brantford CMA has been well below the home prices for surrounding CMA s. However, in the past 5 years, the price of new homes has risen considerably. Between 2007 and 2011 the average cost of new homes in the Brantford CMA increased by approximately $130,000 or 58%, representing the largest increase across all CMA s with close proximity to Brantford. The considerable increase does not indicate that the market for new homes in the Brantford CMA is strong. Section 6.0 and 6.1 show that construction of new homes in the Brantford CMA is slow to moderate compared to other CMA s. Rather, the continual increase in home price may be attributed to the relative cost and affordability of various housing forms. Figure 10 - Brantford CMA: Housing Absorbed (sold) Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 16

23 6.4 MLS - Single and Semi Detached Unit Sales Figure 11 illustrates the total single and semi detached resale residential units sold in Brantford between 2002 and The resale of residential single and semi detached units over the 10 year period has been relatively stable with a range between 1,650-2,180 units sold annually. In 2011, 1,667 units were sold, which represents the second lowest total over a 10 year period. Figure 11 - Brantford MLS Single and Semi detached Units Sold Annually Figure 12 illustrates the total sales value of single and semi detached resale residential units sold in Brantford between 2002 and The total value of single and semi detached units resold has increased by approximately $130 million over the last 10 years, while the quality of annual units sold has trended downwards. This indicates that the price of resale single and semi detached units is increasing at a moderate rate. Figure 12 - Brantford MLS Single and Semi detached Total Value of Units Sold Annually Source: Brantford Regional Real Estate Association 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 17

24 6.4 MLS Residential Sales Table 13 illustrates MLS sales in the City of Brantford for In 2011, 1,973 residential units were resold through MLS in the City of Brantford, while 3,311 units were listed. This indicates that Brantford has a sellers market as the sales to listing ratio is approximately 60%. The total value of the MLS sale market in the City for 2011 was $467,863,194, with an average resale price of $237,133. In 2011, the majority of resale homes sold were single detached, which represented 77% of the total units resold in the City. The high figure may be attributed to the existing housing stock in Brantford, which is primarily comprised of single detached units. Townhomes and semi-detached homes represented 9% and 7% of homes resold respectively. Figure 13 - Brantford MLS Total Residential Sales by Housing Form 2011 Duplex 2% Townhouse 9% Semi - detached 7% Triplex 1% 4 Plex 1% Apartment Units 3% Single Detached 77% Table 13 - MLS Residential Units Sold Composition 2011 Type New Units Listed Sales Total Value Average Sale Price 4 Plex $3,325,000 $255,769 Apartment Units $8,410,994 $129,400 Single Detached 2,590 1,525 $384,915,811 $252,404 Duplex $7,366,550 $175,394 Semi - detached $23,639,302 $180,453 Townhouse $37,110,637 $200,598 Triplex $3,094,900 $257,908 Total 3,311 1,973 $467,863,194 $237,133 Source: Brantford Regional Real Estate Association 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 18

25 6.6 Rental Market - Vacancy Rates Vacancy rate measures the supply of unoccupied rental properties. A vacancy rate below 3% is indicative of a shortage of supply in rental housing, while a rate above 3% typically indicates an adequate or over supply. It is important to note that Section of the Official Plan states that when the City s vacancy rate is above 3% for 3 consecutive years, the conversion of rental units to private ownerships can be considered in all parts of the City. In 2011, the vacancy rate for the Branford CMA decreased to 1.8%. Thus, the conversion of rental units to condominiums is not permitted in the City except in the area exempt from the condominium conversion policy which is limited to the downtown core area. The decrease in vacancies in the City may be attributed to factors such as the impact of student housing on the rental housing stock. As Post Secondary campuses continue to play an increased role in the community, specifically the downtown area, the demand for rental units will be subject to the fluctuations of post secondary student housing needs. Table 14 illustrates the vacancy rates in Ontario over a 3 year period. It should be noted that in October of 2011, the vacancy rates for the majority of CMA s in Ontario decreased. Figure 14 - Brantford CMA: Apartment Vacancy Rates Table 14 - Ontario CMA s Vacancy Rates Ontario CMA s Vacancy Rate % % % Vacancy Rate Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2012 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston K-W London Oshawa Ottawa Peterborough St. Cath/Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto Windsor Ontario CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 19

26 6.7 Rental Market - Townhome & Apartment Rents Information on the rental rates for private townhomes and apartments was obtained from data published by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The survey should not be considered exact due to variations in responses to survey questions and to a less than full coverage of the available rental supply. The data provides a broad overview of average rental rates. The average rental rate for a town home unit in the Brantford CMA decreased to $952 in 2011, which is a 3% decrease over the 2010 total. The rent for townhome units decreased in all bedroom types. The overall rental rates in the Brantford CMA are below the Ontario average but comparative to CMA s within close proximity. The average cost of a rental apartment unit in the Brantford CMA rose to $769. This represents a 2.1% increase over the 2010 figure. The increase is on par with the surrounding municipalities and the Ontario average. Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2012 Table 15 - CMHC: Townhome Average Rents Rates by Bedroom Type Private Townhome Average Rents ($) by Bedroom Type Selected Ontario CMAs October, Sub-Market (CMAs) Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom Total 10-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct % Brantford n/u n/u n/u n/u % Guelph n/u ** ** ** 1,045 1,081 1,190 1,176 1,156 1, % Hamilton ** ** , ,036 1,066 1,027 1, % Kitchener ** , % London ** n/s ** n/s % St. Catharines/ Niagara ** ** 768 ** % Ontario ,123 1,154 1,056 1, % Table 16 - CMHC: Apartment Average Rental Rates by Bedroom Type Sub-Market (CMAs) Private Apartment Average Rents ($) by Bedroom Type Selected Ontario CMAs October, Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom Total 10-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct % Brantford % Guelph ,022 1, % Hamilton ,095 1, % Kitchener ,012 1, % London ,038 1, % St. Catharines/ % Niagara Ontario ,002 1,205 1, % CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 20

27 7.0 Other Housing Demands & Trends The following section summarizes the various housing demands that fall outside of the conventional owners and renters markets. Areas to be analysed are affordable housing, social housing, shelters, seniors/special needs housing, and student housing. The City of Brantford Housing Department was formed under the Social Housing Reform Act. In 2001, the City of Brantford was designated the Service Manager responsible for administration of social housing in the City of Brantford as well as the County of Brant. The Department works closely with housing providers, community-based service agencies, social housing residents and applicants and the community at large to meet local housing needs. The Housing Department is responsible for administering over 1,900 rental, housing units. The City owns and manages approximately 1,122 units and administers an additional 842 units, located in the City and the County. The type of rental units includes low and high-rise apartment buildings, townhouses, semi-detached and single-detached homes, some of which are accessible for persons with disabilities. The size of the unit varies from a bachelor apartment to a five-bedroom home. Affordable Housing (AH), for the purpose of this report, shall include lowmarket rent and even affordable home ownership models that are geared towards individuals and families who require accommodation. Affordable Rental Housing means housing, with a rent that would be affordable to those households within the lowest 35 percent of the income distribution (35 th percentile) for the City of Brantford and the County of Brant. Social Housing consists of dwellings that are owned by a municipality, nonprofit group, or cooperative community group. The purpose of social housing is to offer safe, reasonably priced housing to individuals and families. The Brantford Housing Department has a variety of participants in its social housing program. Some residents pay market rent and some residents receive assistance with their rent. This assistance is also known as rent-geared-income (RGI) as the rent is determined by the amount of gross household income. The City of Brantford updated its Affordable Housing Strategy in , which is available on-line at The Affordable Housing Strategy provides a more in-depth report on affordable housing and alternative housing demand issues facing Brant Brantford and includes strategies/ actions aimed at addressing them. CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 21

28 7.1 Affordable Housing (AH) In 2011, 1 project was completed and occupied under the affordable housing program, creating 40 new units. Between 2006 and 2011, the affordable housing program has created 334 rental units within the City of Brantford and County of Brant. To date, 2 affordable housing projects have been completed in 2012, creating 56 units. The City of Brantford s Official Plan Section sets an affordable housing construction target of 180 new units annually with a distribution of 85% rental and 15% homeownership. The target was established in the City s affordable housing strategy to support the growing need for affordable housing. According to the City s most recent Affordable Housing Strategy, 13% of the City s population or 12,225 residents (2005 Census data) were classified as living with low income. Previous sections in this report have illustrated that the cost of housing in the City of Brantford is rising. As home prices increase, finding moderately priced accommodations will be more difficult. Affordable rental and homeownership properties will be required to provide housing options for people at various stages of the housing spectrum from low to moderate incomes. To date, the City is falling short of its annual affordable housing target. Table 17 - Brant-Brantford: Affordable Housing (AH) Project Completed Source: City of Brantford - Housing Department, 2012 AH Projects (completed) Address Bach 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed Rent Supp Units Total # of Units occupancy date Bell Lane Apartments Cordage Lofts Dalhousie Church Lofts Your Homes Brantford 40 Queen St October, 2006 City Centre Apartments 24 Harris Ave October, 2006 RiverBank Apartments West River St. (Paris) July, 2006 GK York City Site 163 Market St. & 40 & 42 Sheridan St December, 2008 Uptown Downtown 251 Colborne St September, 2009 GK York County Site 130 West River St. (Paris) November, 2009 Hotinohsioni Inc. 5 & 7 Walnut St July, 2009 Alfred Heights 3-5 Alfred St March, 2010 Freedom Gate 178 Market St May, 2010 G.K York 54 Winniet St June, 2010 Telephone City Developments Colborne St August, 2010 Northern Gate Investments 255 Colborne St August, 2011 Hotinohsioni Inc. 1 Alfred St February, 2012 Counsel Park Road Limited 575 Park Rd April, 2012 Total CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 22

29 7.1 Affordable Housing (AH) - Con t The City of Brantford Housing Department currently has one affordable housing project pending construction. Once completed, the project will provide 4 new units to the City s rental market for people with low to moderate incomes. The Housing department does not have any affordable housing projects slated for construction after the completion of the pending project. The affordable housing program is dependant on annual funds from senior levels of government. With limited projects in the queue, the City should promote the construction of affordable housing projects without the aid of the program. Mechanisms are in place to encourage this form of development. The City currently exempts development charges for the creation of affordable homeownership units. The home/unit must meet the household income and purchase price requirements of the Housing Department. The City should continue to take advantage of all available housing programs from senior levels of government and maintain and utilize existing incentive programs to work with private developers to provide affordable housing solutions for low to moderate income individuals. Table 18 - Brant-Brantford: Affordable Housing (AH) Projects Pending Construction Completion AH Projects (Pending Construction Completion) Project Names address Bach 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed Modified/Seniors Units Total # of units Expected occupancy date City of Brantford TBA Summer, 2013 Total - - Source: City of Brantford - Housing Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 23

30 7.2 Social Housing Table 19 provides a status update regarding the social housing waiting list within the City of Brantford. In 2011, 847 new applications were received for social housing units and 26% of the households on the waiting lists were housed. This figure is on par with the historic average of 27 % of people housed annually. Social housing and affordable housing play an important part in assisting the development of communities. It is important that appropriate resources are combined with social housing programs to aid singles, seniors, and families to progress past the point where they require social assistance, and allow others the opportunity to be assisted by the available programs. Although the percentage of people housed was relatively low in 2011, overall, the total people on the waiting list decreased to 1,039. Table 20 illustrates the breakdown of households on the social housing waiting list. Compared to 2010, the housing need for families decreased, while the need for seniors and singles increased. Table 19 - Social Housing Waiting lists by Type Application and Persons Housed Year New Applications Families Housed Seniors Housed Social Housing Singles Housed Special Needs Housed Total Housed Waiting List % of Waiting List Housed ,141 32% ,206 31% ,063 34% ,257 24% ,205 25% ,070 22% ,039 26% Avg ,140 28% Table 20 - Social Housing Waiting List by Persons Social Housing Waiting Lists Year Seniors Singles Families Total , , , , , , Avg ,140 Source: City of Brantford - Housing Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 24

31 7.3 Post Secondary Student Housing Student housing has become an increasingly important issue in the City of Brantford with the growth of post secondary institutions in the downtown core such as Wilfrid Laurier University Brantford, Nipissing University and Mohawk College. It should be noted that Wilfrid Laurier also handles residence housing for Nipissing University students. Student/Parent owned accommodations- Single-family homes owned or mortgaged by student or parent. Landlord occupied accommodations (i.e. homeowner renting a room) - Mainly in the Southwest, and North end of the City. Student housing within Brantford consists of several housing type accommodations, including: University Managed/Owned Residences- These accommodations are only for first-year students as Wilfrid Laurier University guarantees residences space to all first-year students. Operating at full capacity, there are 455 available beds. The university is developing plans to build up to 500 beds within the next five years. The residence department at WLU expects that 70% of the students living in residence will require off campus housing in their second year. Large-scale Private Student housing developments- Private investors develop these accommodations as off campus housing specifically for students. Private landlord units- Single-family homes that have been converted to rental units, apartment building units are also classified in this heading. CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 25

32 7.3 Post Secondary Student Housing (Con t) The Wilfrid Laurier Brantford campus Master Plan states that from student enrollment will grow from 2,800 full-time students to 4,000 full-time students. To accommodate the increase in enrollment the campus master plan estimates the university will require approximately 1,040 residency beds. Table 21 - Laurier Brantford Off Campus Housing 2012 Laurier Brantford Off-Campus Housing 2011 Housing Type Accommodations Beds The demand for student housing off-campus and on-campus is currently being provided by private sector investors converting buildings or apartments to suit the needs of students. In the Brantford Expositor building will be converted into a 215 bed private residence leased by Laurier with commercial uses at grade. Partial occupancy of this building will begin in September of Also, the off-campus housing listing service used by the university, has 47 properties listed for occupancy as of June The majority of the units listed are rooms available for rent in single detached dwellings, town home dwellings, and duplex dwellings. The supply market for off-campus housing continues to grow at a rapid rate that meets or exceeds the rate of student growth. The Residence Department at WLU receives numerous inquiries on a weekly basis regarding the creation of rental housing for students. The influx of rental property speculation geared towards students may have an impact on the availability of rental units for residents in the downtown. Going forward, the City should look to work with Laurier Brantford to devise a plan/ strategy outlining a vision and monitoring methods for the growth of off-campus student housing. The university has a unique location, being integrated within the fabric of the City s existing downtown area. The integration of student uses with resident functions is very important. The location and management of said uses and functions will require appropriate planning to reduce conflicting uses and poor rental conditions. With an expected build-out student population of 15,000, and the City striving to achieve its provincial density targets, housing will be a critical part of the future growth/expansion of Laurier Brantford and development of the City s Urban Growth Centre (downtown). Large Scale Private Student Housing Developments Private Developer - Facility Leased By Laurier as Residence GK York Properties Private Landlord Units Student/Parent Owned Accommodations Landlord Occupied Accommodated Private Landlord Units Dost Residence 22 Wellington Place 19 Athenian 17 St. Stephens House 10 St. Jude House 9 Victoria Place Loft 53 Expositor Building Residence All Properties Centennial Towers % Student = % Student = 100 Various 100 Various 50 Various 200+ properties, ranging in number of beds/property. Estimate 4 bedrooms per/property = 800 Beds Total Beds 1,455 Source: Wilfrid Laurier Brantford, 2010 and City of Brantford Planning Department, 2012 CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 26

33 Appendix 1 - WARD BOUNDARIES CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 27

34 Appendix 2 - Official Plan Schedule 1-1 Growth Management CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 28

35 Appendix 3 - Residential Monitoring Map (A clearer version of this map is available online at or for purchase from the City of Brantford Planning Department) CITY OF BRANTFORD Page 29