U.S. Foreclosure Outlook

Transcription

1 U.S. Foreclosure Outlook Where we ve been, where we are, and where we re going To: Company Name Here Date: Goes Here

2 A brief note on methodology RealtyTrac collects foreclosure documents, postings and published notices from about 2,200 counties nationwide. Counties account for over 92 percent of all U.S. housing units Data is collected primarily by network of abstractors Monthly counts are based on date the document/posting/notice was uploaded into the RealtyTrac database, not the recording date

3 Where we ve been: Foreclosure Review An historically unprecedented cycle First wave not started by usual economic trends, but by unsustainable home prices and high-risk monetary and underwriting practices Sub-prime loans started the wave, and provided the tipping point for the mortgage market meltdown Properties with foreclosure filings have exceeded 300,000 for 20 consecutive months through Oct March 2010 was the highest month ever in terms of foreclosure activity, with over 367,000 U.S. households receiving a foreclosure notice That will trend will be broken in November because of fallout from robo-signing controversy

4 U.S. foreclosure activity over last five years U.S. Monthly Foreclosure Activity Default Auction REO March 2010 highest monthly total with 367,

5 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 The Delay and Pray strategy usually doesn t work 120,000 Default Auction REO SB 1137 takes effect in Sep ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 -

6 Total Foreclosure Sales Percent of All Sales Where we ve been: foreclosure sales skyrocketing U.S. Total Foreclosure Sales Activity # of Sales Pct. of All Sales 400, , , , , , , , Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Q3 0.00

7 Where we are At or near the technical peak of foreclosure activity U.S. foreclosure activity has decreased on annual basis in five of last seven months New foreclosure starts have decreased on annual basis for nine straight months But risk remains in market High unemployment Underwater homeowners (20% plus) Toxic loans still lingering Backlog of bank-owned inventory

8 Where we are: Foreclosure Starts decreasing 120% Annual Percent Change in Foreclosure Activity by Type Default YOY Auction YOY REO YOY 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40%

9 Where we are: Top 10 State Foreclosure Rates

10 Where we are: backlog of bank-owned inventory RealtyTrac New REO Activity RealtyTrac # of REO Sales 350, ,000 Since Q2 2005, 1.7 million more REOs have been created than have been sold 250, , , ,000 50, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4

11 Where we are: more shadow inventory 59% of the housing market, or 7.1 million, are in some stage of distress Properties in Foreclosure Process, 1,200,000, 10% Exhisting Home Sales, 4,530,000, 38% New Home Sales, 307,000, 3% Delinquent, 5,000,000, 41% REO, 900,000, 8%

12 Where we are: toxic loans lingering 14 SOURCE: Amherst Securities, Loan Performance

13 Where we re going Foreclosure levels remain at a high plateau in 2011 Unemployment will drive high levels of foreclosure activity through 2011 Resetting option ARMs could also contribute to continued high foreclosure levels Foreclosure activity turns corner 2012 to 2014 Optimistically, levels could start declining consistently in 2012, which would match the typical seven-year window we have seen with high foreclosure cycles in the past. Pessimistically, the cycle pushed out up to two years because of the delays we ve seen over the past two years in getting the distressed inventory cleared.

14 Where we re going: 2010 and 2011 projections U.S. Properties with FC Filings Total FC Filings 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,957,643 4,000,000 4,100,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 3,157,806 2,824,674 2,900,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,203,295 2,330,483 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,259,118 1,285,873 1,000, , , (p) 2011 (p)

15 Charting foreclosures by county To: Company Name Here Date: Goes Here

16 Charting foreclosure rates by county October 2010

17 2006

18 2007

19 2008

20 2009

21 2010 Year-End Projection

22 Hope for first-time homebuyers

23 Contact Information Daren Blomquist Director of Marketing Communications To: Company Name Here Ext. 115 Date: Goes Here