2018 CCIM President. Carole Brill, CCIM
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1 2018 CCIM President Carole Brill, CCIM
2 2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by Melissa Molyneaux
3 Melissa Molyneaux, SIOR, CCIM Senior Vice President Executive Managing Director Office Services Colliers International, Reno
4 Key Takeaways Owners improving their assets with lobby remodels Improving statistics year over year Positive absorption due to significant leases/sales Colliers International
5 Absorption 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - (10,000) (20,000) 4Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2017 Net Absorption Colliers International
6 Vacancy Rate 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 16.1% 15.9% 15.2% 14.5% 14.7% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 13.1% 12.3% 11.8% 11.0% 10.0% 4Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2017 Colliers International
7 Significant Leases Address SF Tenant Type 885 Trademark Drive, 1 st & 2 nd Floor (partial) 29,490 PODS Enterprises New 885 Trademark Drive, Suite ,697 Elemental LED New 9480 Double Diamond Parkway 16,611 Spine Nevada New 50 South Virginia Street 14,000 SWITCH New Professional Circle, 2 nd Floor 12,823 Guild Mortgage New 2195 S Virginia Street, 1 st Floor 12,500 Park Lane Sales Office New 6160 Plumas Street, Suite ,721 R&R Holdings New 9850 Double R Boulevard, Suite ,719 Cisco Systems Renewal 604 W Moana Lane 10, Kietzke Lane, Suite ,421 Nevada System of Higher Education Nevada State Contractors Board New New Colliers International
8 Rental Rates $2.00 $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 Downtown South Meadows Meadowood Central/Airport Sparks West Reno Colliers International
9 2018 Planned & Potential Construction Planned McKenzie Properties is building a 40,000 sf spec building off Kietzke and Mountain View Corporate Center Charles Schwab is breaking ground on a BTS/Spec building in Rancharrah. Two buildings are under construction: Urology Group on Kietzke and an Oncology Group on Longley Potential Tanamera Construction may be constructing medical space in Reno Corporate Center (Longley Lane) Colliers International
10 Significant Sales Address SF Sale Price PSF 645 N Arlington Avenue 189,828 $66,200, $ East Liberty Street 84,151 $18,300, $ Plumas Street 37,410 $6,900, $ California Avenue 23,266 $3,075, $ Plumas Street 21,866 $2,906, $ Salomon Circle 16,467 $2,900, $ Kietzke Lane 10,752 $3,194, $ Ridge Street* 34,407 $5,781, $ West Liberty Street* 28,557 $5,647, $ & 140 Washington Street* 24,464 $4,564, $ Hill Street* 23,441 $4,156, $ Cordone Avenue* 25,543 $2,200, $86.13 Colliers International *Part of Portfolio Sale
11 2018 Office Forecast Rents Vacancy Absorption CCIM 2018 Vacancy Forecast = 8.8% Construction Colliers International
12 Melissa Molyneaux, SIOR, CCIM Senior Vice President Executive Managing Director Office Services Colliers International, Reno
13 2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by Matt Harris
14 Presented by: Matthew Harris Data Provided by Costar Contributers: David Schuster Ronald Sheehan
15
16 Percentage Leased 93% Market Direct Vacancy Rate 7.0%
17 Occupancy Rate Current Market Vacancy Rate 8.1% US Vacancy Rate 5.1% Boise Vacancy Rate 3.5% Sacramento Vacancy Rate 6.1%
18 FUN FACT! In 2017, Northern Nevada's Industrial market had more sublet space available than any other market in the United States Costar reported available sublet space to be 2.5 MSF. Next closest market Dallas Ft Worth 2.2 MSF with a total market size 869 MSF, over 8 times larger than ours.
19 Leasing Activity 9.2 Million Square Feet
20 Net Absorption 3 Million Square Feet
21 Average Asking Rental Rate $4.86 PSF Warehouse Average $4.36 PSF Flex Space Average $9.25 PSF
22 Average Sales Price $64.00 PSF
23 Increased Total Sales Volume 121 Million
24 Total Square Feet For Sale 1.7 Million Square Feet FOR SALE
25 Construction Starts 5 year low!
26
27
28 Sub-Market Maps Fernley Tahoe Reno Industrial Center
29 2018 Expectations Gross Absorption Sales Volume Construction Deliveries Rental Rate + Sales Price Overall Market Vacancy 6.8%
30
31 2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by Trevor Richardson
32 Prepared for CCIM 2018 Forcast Event DCG Multifamily 2018 Reno Multifamily Report Prepared By: Trevor Richardson Dickson Commercial Group
33 2017 Multifamily Overview Owners High income Sales prices Demand Rents Dramatic Gains Tenants Higher rents Less options
34 Reno, NV Colorado Springs, CO Palm Bay, FL Ventura Counta, CA Richmond, VA Vallejo/Napa, CA Spokane, WA Tucson, AZ Fresno, CA Birmingham, AL New Orleans, LA National Rental Trends Secondary Markets 14% Reno 2017 Rent Growth 14% rate increase 5% Reno 2016 Rent Growth 11.8% rate increase
35 Apartment Rental Rate Growth 01 $1,054 $1,066 $1,111 $1,194 $1,202 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q3 17 Reno Multifamily Average Rental Rate $1,202
36 2017 RENT GROWTH DCG Multifamily 2018
37 Apartment Vacancy % 2.93% 2.30% 2.24% 1.17% Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q % Represents around 2 weeks of market turn time Apartment Occupancy
38 2017 Multifamily Sales 02 Large Multi 2,020 Units Sold 80+ Units $129K Average $/Unit Small Multi 1,098 Units Sold 2-79 Units $87K Average $/Unit
39 2017 Multifamily Sales to 2017 Sales Trends 21% 64% Percentage Decrease Percentage Increase 80+ Units 2-79 Units 10% Average $/Unit 12% Average $/Unit
40 2017 Multifamily Sales &2017 Large Multifamily Sales Scatter Chart 1 $198k/UNIT 2 $158k/UNIT Downtown Urban 5.5% Cap 3rd St Flats 2 South Reno Garden 5% Cap The Verge
41 Reno/Sparks Multifamily Construction Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q3 17 Reno multifamily total units planned and under construction 10,599
42 Reno/Sparks Multifamily Construction Under 3, Construction Planned Construction 6,837
43 2018 Multifamily Forecast Average Rent $1,275 Vacancy 2.5%
44 Thank you. DCG Multifamily 2018
45 2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by Ian Cochrane
46 2018 Retail Forecast Ian Cochran, CCIM Retail Leasing, Sales, & Investment Specialist
47 2017 Where did it go! The market velocity nearly doubled in 2017, creating what seemed like a mad dash to secure properties for investment and leasing alike. SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP.
48 2017 was a great year for leasing and investment sales SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP.
49 2017 Notable Investment Sales RCG Ventures $40 Million ($120/SF) Tolles Development $16.5 Million ($221/SF) Kimco Realty $24.1 Million ($291/SF) Land Cap $18.6 Million ($125/SF) SVN INTERNATIONAL CORP.
50 2017 Notable Lease Transactions 23,500 SF at Del Monte Plaza 40,000 SF at Sparks Galleria 25,000 SF at Northtowne Marketplace 20,000 SF at Spanish Springs Center 30,000 SF at South Meadows Promenade 30,000 SF at Sparks Galleria
51 Development in Reno-Sparks Area South Meadows Promenade 80,160 SF New Construction The Outlets at Legends 20,000 SF Spec Build 40,000 SF Build to Suit
52 The Reno Market By The Numbers Absorption Lease Rates & Sales Prices Vacancy Rate New Construction
53 Looking Ahead to 2018 Absorption Lease Rates & Sales Prices Vacancy Rate New Construction
54 2018 Vacancy & Rent Prediction Vacancy Rate 8% Lease Rate $1.55/SF
55 2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecasts Presented by CCIM
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