The Housing Bust and Housing Affordability: Where do we stand?

Transcription

1 The Housing Bust and Housing ffordability: Where do we stand? Robert Clifford, Policy nalyst New England Public Policy Center ederal Reserve Bank of Boston Bringing Workers Home 2011 Regional orum on Workforce Housing in Boston National ssociation RELTORS and National Housing Conference July 28, 2011 *The views expressed in this presentation are mine and not necessarily those of the ederal Reserve Bank of Boston or ederal Reserve System

2 Real Housing Prices versus Real Household Incomes, Index 1995= M - HPI M - Median HH Income 180 NE - HPI NE - Median HH Income US - HPI US - Median HH Income Source: ederal Housing inance uthority Housing Price Indexes; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index.

3 Perceived Positive of the Housing Crisis alling housing prices have resulted in record affordability: Houses in the United States are now more affordable than at any time in the last 40 years, when compared with personal income. ~ New York Times, March 6, In reality the improvement in affordability are closer to early 2000 levels. However, most households in New England and the United States entered the housing downturn facing cost burdens from housing and few are able to take advantage of declining house prices.

4 Measure of ffordability: Income dequacy Ratio Compares household income to income needed to afford housing. If measure is great than or equal to 1.0 the area is affordable. Looks beyond housing price or monthly rent: or buyers: Interest rates, real estate taxes, insurance premiums, and personal mortgage insurance (for first-time homebuyers) or renters: contract rent plus utilities Captures the state of housing affordability for those looking to buy or rent.

5 1.4 Ratio of Real nnual Median Households Income to Real nnual Income Needed to Purchase the Median-Priced House: ll Households CT ME M NH RI VT US O R D B L E Threshold of ffordability 1.0 U N O R D B L E Source: NEPPC Calculations.

6 Ratio of Real nnual Median Household Income to Real nnual Income Needed to fford the Gross Rent: ll Households O R D B L E Threshold of ffordability CT ME M NH RI VT US Source: NEPPC Calculations.

7 Boston versus Competitor MSs Ratio of Real nnual Median Households Income to Real nnual Income Needed to Purchase the Median-Priced House: ll Households O R D B L E Threshold of ffordability U N O R D B L E Source: NEPPC Calculations. Boston-Quincy, M San rancisco-san Mateo-Redwood City, C Chicago-Naperville- Joliet, IL New York-White Plains- Wayne, NY-NJ Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, W Philadelphia, P Raleigh-Cary, NC Washington-rlington- lexandria, DC-V-MD- WV

8 Measure of ffordability: Housing Burden Calculates the actual percentage of income that households spend on housing costs Tracks similar data to income adequacy ratio but is based on survey data. Captures the experience of those currently owning and renting. Households are categorized as experiencing a housing burden if housing costs exceed 30 percent of household income. Severely burdened if costs exceed 50 percent.

9 Percentage 36.0% Percentage of Households Experiencing Moderate or Serve Burdens ll Households 34.0% 32.0% 30.0% 28.0% 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% M NE US 20.0% Source: NEPPC calculation using U.S. Census Bureau Census and merican Community Survey.

10 50.0% Percentage Percentage of Households Experiencing Moderate or Severe Housing Burden: Homeowners versus Renters 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% M - Owner NE - Owner M - Renter NE - Renter 10.0% US - Owner US - Renter Source: NEPPC calculation using U.S. Census Bureau Census and merican Community Survey.

11 35.0% Percentage of "Middle-Income" Households Experiencing Moderate or Severe Housing Burden: Homeowners versus Renters Percentage 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% M - Owner M - Renter NE - Owner NE - Renter US - Owner US - Renter Source: NEPPC calculation using U.S. Census Bureau Census and merican Community Survey.

12 80.0% Percentage Percentage of "Very-Low-Income" Households Experiencing Severe Housing Burdens: Homeowners versus Renters 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% M - Owner M - Renter NE - Owner NE - Renter US - Owner US - Renter Source: NEPPC calculation using U.S. Census Bureau Census and merican Community Survey.

13 Where we are: The housing downturn has resulted in increased affordability for those able to buy. However, very few households are in a position to buy as they are facing high cost burdens from housing. Particularly low- and moderate-income households. The problem is particularly acute in the Massachusetts housing market.