WORKINGEFFECTIVELYWITHTODAY S APPRAISERS. December 19, 2013 Oscar Wei Senior Research Analyst

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1 WORKINGEFFECTIVELYWITHTODAY S APPRAISERS December 19, 2013 Oscar Wei Senior Research Analyst

2 Problems reported by REALTORS : Out-of-town appraisers who are not familiar with the local market conditions Inappropriate comparisons Turn-around time by both appraisers and banks is slow Excessive lender demands SOURCE: NAR Realtors Confidence Index Survey, Sept 2012

3 Impact to Home Sales 63% reported no contract problems related to home appraisals 14% said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price as a result of a low valuation 12% said a contract was cancelled due to an appraised value under the price negotiated between the buyer and the seller 9% reported a contract was delayed 2% reported a contract problem due to a high appraisal SOURCE: NAR Realtor Confidence Index Survey, Aug 2013

4 Survey Methodology 801 online surveys conducted in August 2013 Respondents: REALTORS who closed a real estate transaction between August 2012 and August 2013 Sample error: 3.3% at 95% confidence interval

5 Type of Client Represented Buyer Seller Both 23% 40% 37% Q: During your last transaction where the buyer and seller entered into a valid contract and the transaction closed escrow or cancelled, which type of client did you represent?

6 Property Location 60% 55% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 24% 21% 0% Northern California Southern California Other Q: In which county was the property located?

7 MostTransactionsWere Single Family Homes 4% 4% 2% 1% 12% 77% Single Family Home Condominium Townhome Other Land Maufactured home Q: What type of property was your last transaction?

8 Final Sale Price Mean: $969,153 Median: $427,000 Mode: $350,000 Maximum: $81,565,000 Minimum: $35,000 Q: What was the final sales price of your last transaction?

9 Final Sale Price 1,000, % 800, ,999 7% 600, ,999 12% 400, ,999 23% 200, ,999 29% < 200,000 16% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Q: What was the final sales price of your last transaction?

10 Most BuyersAcquired Financing All Cash 24% Financing 76% Q: How did the buyer pay for the property?

11 Share ofcash Buyers decreases for the first time after 7 years of continuous Increase 35% % of All Cash Sales 30% 27% 25% 20% 15% Over a quarter of buyers paid with all cash The share of all cash buyers had been on the rise until this year SERIES: 2013 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 10% 5% 0%

12 Majority of Buyers DidAppraisals No 23% Yes 77% Q: Did the buyer have an appraisal done on the property?

13 Most Buyers Did NotWaiveAppraisalContingency Yes 31% No 69% Q: Did the buyer waive the appraisal contingency?

14 THE APPRAISAL

15 4/10 REALTORS had DirectContact w/appraiser No 60% Yes 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Q: Did you have direct contact with the appraiser at any time during the transaction?

16 Appraisers CompanyAffiliation Mostly Unknown 89% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11% Company known Unknown Q: With which company was the appraiser affiliated?

17 AppraisedValue 15% 85% Appraisal Value Final Sales Price Appraisal Value < Final Sales Price Q: What was the appraised value of that property?

18 Appraised Value Final Sale Price by Final Sale Price Ranges $1,000, % $500,001 - $1,000,000 78% $300,001 - $500,000 84% $300,000 93% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Q: What was the appraised value of that property?

19 Type of Properties in Appraiser Report 60% 52% 50% 40% 38% 30% 20% 10% 12% 17% 10% 0% Q: What type of properties did the appraiser include in his/her report?

20 The Median Price for Equity Sales Declined for the 4 th Consecutive Month $500,000 Equity Sales Short Sale REO $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 SERIES: Distressed Median Price SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

21 MostAppraisers are Familiar w/ Local Markets 34% 61% Yes No Don't Know/Unsure 5% Q: Was the appraiser familiar with the local market?

22 30% 25% 20% 15% Satisfaction Rating ofappraisers (Mean: 7.1, Median: 8) 24% 22% 22% 10% 5% 4% 3% 4% 2% 5% 7% 8% 0% Q: On a scale of one to 10, with one being very dissatisfied and 10 being very satisfied, how satisfied were you with the appraiser?

23 Satisfaction Level by Sales Price Median Mean $300, $300,001 $500, $500,001 $1,000, $1,000, Q: What was the final sales price of your last transaction?

24 Satisfaction Level: Non-Distressed vs. Distressed Mean Median Used Non-Distressed Properties Only in Appraisal Used Both Distressed and Non-Distressed Properties in Appraisal

25 Satisfaction Level: AppraisedValue above or below Final Price Mean Median Appraised Value < Final Price Appraised Value > Final Price Q: What was the final sales price of your last transaction?

26 REALTORS Satisfaction Level withappraisers Mean Median Appraiser Familiar with Local Markets Appraiser Not Familiar with Local Markets Not Sure/Don t Know Q: Was the appraiser familiar with the local market?

27 Top Reasons for Satisfaction No problems or issues 13.8% Know the area/market 8.3% Property appraised at market value price 8.1% Timely Manner, Quick Turnaround 5.8% Professional, Polite, Friendly 4.6% Property appraised at a higher value than expected 3.2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

28 Top Reasons for Dissatisfaction Low appraisal 5.8% Appraiser did not know the area 4.8% Slow, take too long 4.0% Communication problems 0.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

29 CLOSING REMARKS

30 Share of Equity Sales Decreased for the FirstTime Since December % Equity Sales 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SERIES: Distressed Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Short Sale REO

31 Median PriceYTY % Chg: US vs. CA 40% CA US 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 10Yr T-Bond SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Federal Reserve Board

32 Issues with HomeAppraisal Should Improve in 2014 As more distressed properties are clear Home prices continue to rise Lending standards loosen up

33 Join us for our next webinar Understanding California s Home Sellers Thursday, January 30, :00 PM - 3:00 PM To register:

34 For more information:

35 For more information:

36 For more information:

37 C.A.R. Finance Helpline Finance.car.org (213) Get one-on-one assistance with short sales, funding, REOs, Deeds in Lieu, and closing transactions.

38

39 THANKYOU!

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