5Market. Overview & Economic Development. Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Plans, Programs, & Community Services - REVIEW DRAFT 38

Transcription

1 5Market Overview & Economic Development Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Plans, Programs, & Community Services - REVIEW DRAFT 38

2 WOOD DALE S ROLE IN THE REGIONAL ECONOMY A clear understanding of the national, regional, and local economies is key to developing a comprehensive plan that supports existing uses and identifies market-supported new residential and business opportunities for Wood Dale. This knowledge enables the community to identify policies that fit a future market positioning and marketing strategy that improves the economic contribution of Wood Dale s important commercial uses to its tax base. The information that follows examines the choices to be addressed in Wood Dale s Comprehensive Plan to create policies that guide future development. Overall Market Wood Dale is a DuPage County border community that has historically balanced its land uses by attracting both business and residential development, as it offers easy access to O Hare Airport and Chicago s Loop. Business development has also capitalized on lower commercial property taxes relative to neighboring Cook County communities. Because Wood Dale is midway between two dominating retail communities, Oak Brook and Schaumburg, the commercial development attracted to the City is more office, distribution, and manufacturing rather than retail. Wood Dale s residential development is primarily single-family, which capitalizes on access to recreation at parks and Forest Preserves. tax advantage, making the neighboring communities more competitive for commercial development. At the same time, the State s and Tollway s investment in Illinois Route 390 (IL 390) promises to make its adjacent communities, like Wood Dale, very attractive for businesses and residents capitalizing on quicker access to O Hare. For these reasons, investors will continue to view Wood Dale as a desirable commercial location. That interest provides financial advantages as commercial development generates revenue without straining services such as schools, parks, and government support. Residential development is hampered by Wood Dale s lack of vacant land, offering limited opportunities for new subdivisions and thus making redevelopment the expected predominate form for new development. That redevelopment could involve commercial properties, low utilization golf courses, or aging, deteriorating single family homes. Because 65% of Wood Dale s homes were built before 1980 and there is great access to employment, there is pressure for housing redevelopment. When approximately 40 years old, many homes require significant investments such as HVAC replacement, new plumbing, and exterior maintenance. That sizeable investment in homes lacking the layout desired by today s buyer often makes tearing down and replacing the house a better financial decision than improving it. Although in many communities, redevelopment brings large increases in housing values, O Hare noise concerns likely will cap new home values in Wood Dale. As the Comprehensive Plan prepares Wood Dale for the future, understanding how changing market conditions will alter future development must be considered. Recent changes in Cook County tax practices have reduced the DuPage County 39 Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT Mixed-use development on Irving Park Road

3 Commercial Development Wood Dale competes in the O Hare Commercial submarket. Figure 5.1 reports the 4th Quarter 2016 office vacancy rate at 16.9%. It has declined from the recession highs of more than 20% vacancy but remains above 10%, where investors begin to consider speculative building. Office rental rates in the O Hare market now average $24.30, an amount that is still below the returns needed to cover the cost of newly constructed Class A office, 1 approximately $30 per square foot. Still, with almost no new product constructed in the last ten years, there are built-to-suit office projects happening. The most notable project is the Zurich Insurance building, recently constructed in Schaumburg. That unusual project occurred because there was a high visibility site available in a location near other class A 1 office space. More common than the building of new space is extensive renovation of formerly class A space that can be improved to meet modern requirements. Although opportunities for new office building are limited by national trends, the daytime population may still be growing, as Wood Dale residents choose to open home based businesses and telecommute. The numbers of days worked from home by generation is shown in Figure 5.2 below. The growth of sole proprietors and self-employed contractors nationally supports this trend. Nationally, industrial space (especially distribution space) is in high demand. Industrial tenants absorbed an all-time high of 26.6 million square feet in the Chicago area last year, according to Seattle based Colliers International. That more than offsets 22.3 million square feet of new construction completed in 2016, the highest total in 11 years. The O Hare Sub-area where Wood Dale competes is the strongest market in the Chicago region, with a vacancy rate of only 2.6%. O Hare area rents are $3.50 to $8.00 per square foot, compared to a regional average of $4.85 per square foot. 2 Figure 5.1 O Hare Commercial Submarket - 4th Quarter 2016 Figure 5.2 Number of Days Worked from Home by Generation 1 Class A space is usually single tenant identity, multi-story buildings with top finishing and amenities. Class B is generally multi-tenant, older properties, and Class C space is often aging, single story, multi-tenant properties. 2 CBRE Research: Chicago Industrial, Q Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT 40

4 There is a critical transition impacting both the retail and distribution commercial sectors, as stores join with Internet purchasing to create an omni-channel approach to satisfying customers. This transition means that, while past retail success focused on bringing people to goods, future retail success will now involve bringing goods to people. Retailers are offering their customers the opportunity to browse and place orders online with the quick-in-store same day pickup option. This is online shopping without having to wait for your item to ship. For large format retailers, this trend translates into having smaller and fewer stores, because the consumer has made the decision at home and will travel to obtain those goods. Thus display areas or a large sales floors are no longer needed. For smaller often independent retailers, this change means having an Internet presence and increasing sales by attracting business from a larger market. For businesses obtaining the majority of their sales from Internet purchases, this means choosing distribution buildings in business parks where rents are significantly lower than mall rents and properties, typically smaller than 200,000 sq. ft., fit same day delivery demands. In February 2017 MWPVL International, a logistics consulting leader, published an Amazon Global Fulfillment Center Network analysis that identified Wood Dale as the site of Amazon s newest center type, an Amazon Fresh refrigerated food distribution center. With Amazon making this location decision, Wood Dale has been identified as an important place for the new retail distribution commercial category. Residential Ever since the 2008 crash that brought the first housing value decline in most homeowner s memory, there has been uncertainty in the national housing market. In Wood Dale, median home sales prices reached their lowest point in Although there has been recovery, prices are still below the 2007 levels. Figure 5.3 shows a chart from Zillow illustrating Wood Dale s median home prices over the last 10 years. Although this chart indicates that many purchase prices are higher than potential sales prices, Zillow also reports that less than 1% of Wood Dale homes have mortgage balances higher that their potential sales price. Figure 5.4 reveals the strengthening local market activity that includes Wood Dale. (The Multiple Listing Service does not publish separate Wood Dale, Itasca or Bensenville data.) Figure 5.3 Median Home Prices in Wood Dale over Last Decade Figure 5.4 Local Market Activity Median Sales Price %. Orig. Price Rec d. Source: Zillow Market Time Closed Sales Q Yr Chg Q Yr Chg Q Yr Chg Q Yr Chg Addison $227, % 94.1% 1.2% % % Elk Grove Village $231, % 94.8% 1.6% % % Source: Midwest Real Estate Data LLC, Marketwatch Report, Q Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT

5 The recovering housing market, offers Wood Dale an opportunity to capitalize on new buyers and relocating seniors. During the comprehensive planning process, careful consideration should be given to the match between Wood Dale housing products and the desires of new buyers. Demographics are driving the configuration of new housing products because both of the two lifestyles that most often buy new homes -- new families becoming first time buyers and aging owners downsizing are growing dramatically. In January 2016, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that, millennial buyers (those younger than 35) account for 36% of U.S. home purchases, compared with 34% of homes going to baby boomers (those age 55 to 70). Research shows that these buyers prefer different home configurations. Although media often reports that Millennial buyers prefer urban neighborhoods, the largest percentage is buying in the suburbs. The percentage seeking suburban locations is expected to grow as the buying decision is increasingly driven by school quality. Figure 5.5 First-Time Homebuyers While many Millennials are saddled with student loan debt or unable to afford a down payment and may continue to rent by necessity, some realtors believe those who could afford to buy are opting for a renter lifestyle that allows more mobility. Today s young buyers are waiting longer to purchase a first home because they are unwilling to settle for what their parents bought as a first home. By waiting, they approach the market with a larger down payment. Another trend influencing both Millennials and the Boomer generation is increasing multi-generational living. 14% of new homebuyers are looking to jointly purchase with a parent, and 44% of new homebuyers look for the possibility of accommodating parents in their home at a future date. At the same time, a recent AARP survey of adults age 45-plus reported that 80% of respondents agreed that, what I would really like to do is remain in my local community. 75% reported wanting to stay in their current home. Another impact of the uncertainty of the housing market is growth in the number of renters by choice. Between the second quarters of 2014 and 2015, for example, the number of owner-occupied households dropped by 400,000, according to The Wall Street Journal, hitting a 48-year low; in the same period, the number of renter households jumped by 2 million. In an even greater departure from tradition, some seniors are choosing to rent. Real estate professionals believe some of those households downsized because people sold their homes in favor of a rental. As people retire later in life, they may seek to balance a hectic work schedule with a less handson living situation. Others may find peace of mind in leaving the housing market after years of volatility. Source: National Association of Realtors 2015 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers Research shows that, while the millennial renters desire smaller units and shared facilities for exercise, work, and gathering, older renters seek larger often three bedroom units that can accommodate visiting grandchildren and valued possessions accumulated over a lifetime. We need to invest in our residential areas and make our small commercial districts attractive (walkable, shoppable, and beautiful)! -Resident Input Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT 42

6 The American Community Survey reported that as of 2014, 18% of Wood Dale s households (939 houses) were headed by someone age 65 or older. If Wood Dale residents follow national trends, 75% of those owners hope to remain in their homes, leaving approximately 235 households inclined to move. National studies suggest that 5% of those moving want to stay in their community while the rest would prefer to relocate to be near children and grandchildren or live in a warmer climate. That suggests that perhaps the demand for senior targeted housing for existing residents could be as low as 12 units. However, there is additional demand for units targeted to the parents of current residents. With 29% of Wood Dale homes occupied by a family with children younger than age 18 living in the house (1,535 homes), it is likely that there could be demand for another 150 to 200 homes targeted to parents of those home owners. Figure 5.6 Housing Size in Retirees Most Recent Moves A study titled, Home in Retirement, by Merrill Lynch reported these sizes choices by retirees purchasing new homes. The new assisted living and memory care rental housing coming soon to Irving Park Road will be an asset for Wood Dale and will serve those multi-generational households that might be seeking close proximity to adult children. Still, the need for housing that serves other Wood Dale residents remains. 43 Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT

7 DEVELOPMENT IN A BUILT-OUT COMMUNITY Build-out is a planning concept that projects the capacity of undeveloped land to be developed, and offers a community new homes, jobs, and amenities, such as parks, stores, restaurants, and services. As communities build-out, they typically add large tracts of vacant land, organized as master planned subdivisions, business parks, and shopping centers. New construction provides potential new businesses and residents with properties that meet current development trends. Home buyers and business owners pay a premium to obtain these on-trend properties. Because Wood Dale has only isolated pockets of unused land, it is classified as a fully built-out community. Fully built-out communities can best remain attractive to home buyers and business seeking these on-trend formats if they can capitalize on opportunities to redevelop obsolete residential and commercial properties. Therefore, Wood Dale s must identify redevelopment opportunities and address the complications of adjacent uses, less than optimal site size and configuration, and land preparation costs. Although those considerations tend to raise costs, redevelopment sites can offer savings because infrastructure (roads, water, and sewers) is already in place. The savings allow fully built-out communities to provide incentives that reduce the higher redevelopment costs. The information that follows identifies redevelopment opportunities and challenges by land use type. It provides context and answers the question, Why redevelop?. The second part (Implementation) discusses how to promote redevelopment opportunities and how to position Wood Dale in the development market. These actions are specific to economic development considerations, and are reiterated in the Implementation Chapter of this plan. Residential New homes are an important component of a community s housing mix because they sell at a premium and thereby raise property values. Residential redevelopment can be infill, where an existing home is torn down and replaced by a newer, much larger house or houses and the replacement of another land use, a commercial or industrial property, with a multi-unit housing development. Residential Properties Likely to be Redeveloped Single family homes on one quarter of an acre or larger lots are good redevelopment candidates because today s buyers seek large homes on smaller lots; therefore, a single home can be replaced by two or more houses. Homes that have not been updated like nearby wellkept houses and consequently are selling at prices well below those well-kept houses are candidates for redevelopment. Frequently, these homes are facing replacement of major components such as heating, sewer, and electrical systems. They often are estate or foreclosure sales. Aging industrial, office, or retail properties that predate nearby residential development are frequently redeveloped. These are typically an acre or larger sites that are often obsolete for commercial uses because road changes have undermined the access necessary for successful store or restaurant uses. There is extended vacancy because modern store or restaurant uses do not fit, or activities such as deliveries and manufacturing are causing sufficient conflict with residents to make moving the commercial use more cost effective than meeting regulations. Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT 44

8 Shopping center along the Wood Dale s western portion of Irving Park Road Store and Restaurant Redevelopment Store and restaurant properties are an asset class that has changed format significantly since Wood Dale s primary buildout in the 1960 s through Major road improvements and public safety enhancements have undermined customer access and therefore reduced the desirability of these properties to high volume retail and restaurant businesses. The result has been many properties that once were prime retail space are now occupied by marginal service uses. Although these properties sometimes can be remodeled, it is in general more likely that they will attract desirable uses if they are demolished and redeveloped. The maturing of wellanchored shopping centers often reveals opportunities to redevelop underutilized parking. Potential Store and Restaurant Redevelopment Properties Converting existing underutilized parking to outlot development provides ideal space for new format restaurants and retailers. This new development has little impact on overall parking utilization because the outlots frequently attract customers during early morning or late night when anchor businesses such as Target or Jewel are not busy and therefore can share parking. Increasingly new restaurant and store concepts derive significant revenue from delivery and drive thru business that also has little parking demand and fit well into shopping center outlots. Office Redevelopment Throughout the country, there is substantial suburban office vacancy because open offices and telecommuting have reduced the average space devoted to each employee from 250 square feet to 100 square feet. Also, technology oriented companies are leaving the suburbs for urban areas. Although many trend watchers believe that once New Millenials form families they, like earlier generations, will relocate and take jobs to the suburbs, existing space will need to be replaced and not remodeled to accommodate their needs. These new offices must include cutting edge technology, support more opportunities for collaboration, and connect better to amenities such as restaurants, public transportation, and athletic facilities/open space. Interestingly, these open format spaces are less expensive to build and can sometimes be retrofitted into existing property shells. Potential Office Redevelopment Properties Aging single story office properties are candidates for redevelopment because they can be replaced by multi story development and therefore unlock additional value. Buildings near existing medical uses are good candidates for redevelopment due to medical office expansion to serve an aging population. Vacant or underutilized former retail properties have not been redeveloped primarily because their sites are the wrong size or not accessible for new uses. Assembling properties that are right sized for new uses is complicated because, as nearby properties sell for low values, the last property owner s value increases and therefore there is an incentive to hold onto vacant and deteriorating properties with the hope of being that last owner. 45 Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT

9 Industrial/Logistics Redevelopment As the asset class that has the lowest building construction costs, industrial/logistics properties are often the easiest to redevelop because land costs are a higher percentage of the property value. With that investment profile, changes in the volume of building on a site due to taller buildings and or fewer employees demanding less parking makes redevelopment market driven. The primary change in logistics buildings is the average height of warehouses built in the U.S., which has gone up from around 24 feet in the 1960s to 33 feet in Changing Thorndale Avenue into the limited access Illinois Route 390 made land at the Wood Dale Road exit attractive for businesses that will depend on an exit such as hotels, offices, and retail. Potential Industrial/Logistics Redevelopment Properties Aging buildings less than 30 feet tall Property at the Wood Dale Road exit could undergo pressure to convert to office, retail, or hospitality uses Industrial/Logistics buildings now surrounded by conflicting residential uses. We need something to draw people to the City. I read a couple years back that Wood Dale was going to get a "Main Street. I hope this plan still goes through. -Resident Input Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT 46

10 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IMPLEMENTATION The economic development tasks below advance the overall vision of this Plan, but also stand as a unique group of actions aimed at advancing the City s brand identity and overall business climate. Identity Improve Wood Dale s regional presence Immediate Tasks (First 6-months) O Assign responsibility for community marketing to a specific staff person (done) O Meet with intergovernmental partners to launch identity program Provide copies of the Identity Standards Introduce the staff responsible for market development Detail process for coordinating use of new identity O As budget allows, install community signage (ongoing) Short-term (7 months to 3 years) Promoting Development Opportunities Increase the redevelopment and development projects that make Wood Dale properties competitive with the best development in Chicago suburbs Immediate Tasks (First 6-months) O Revise marketing materials to show 30-Minute Wood Dale Experience market as well as municipal boundaries O Meet with property owners likely to experience development pressure O Meet with Commercial brokers representing likely outlot tenants O Lower permit fees for residential redevelopment (currently ongoing) O Align incentive programs to promote ethnically diverse businesses O Develop festivals to attract and highlight diverse, independent restaurants O Create media advertising that targets new residents and businesses Long-Term (3-years+) O Expand marketing program to highlight new redevelopment opportunities O Refresh marketing program with new tag lines and media choices 47 Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT

11 Short-Term (7 months to 3 years) Entertainment and attractions such as Top Golf can serve as destinations for residents and visitors to Wood Dale O Acquire properties necessary to provide access to development/redevelopment sites identified in the Comprehensive Plan and necessary to improve storm water control or other public infrastructure. O Research community acceptance of these policies that encourage residential redevelopment Reducing minimum lot sizes Allowing residential development rather than requiring mixed use in commercial areas Connecting properties to amenities via multiple modes of traffic particularly bicycle and walking Reducing multi-family residential parking requirements O Research community acceptance of these policies that encourage vacant and underutilized store and restaurant space redevelopment Identify outlot opportunities due to excess parking in existing developments by studying actual utilization, car sharing (Uber/Lyft) by uses and the impact of businesses with parking demand during different dayparts In new developments, allow land banking rather than building 20% of the parking required by traditional minimum parking requirements. Once the property is fully tenanted, study utilization to determine whether that the land banked space can be developed rather than used for parking.. O Research community acceptance of these policies that encourage vacant and underutilized office space redevelopment Add amenities such as internet speed and capacity increases, multi-modal access, and fitness amenities that increase demand for modernized office Allow showroom/distribution functions within office zoning to encourage multi-use properties in office buildings Allow conversion of office now surrounded by conflicting uses O Research community acceptance of these policies that encourage vacant and underutilized industrial and warehouse space redevelopment Reducing parking requirements to fit automation of warehouse and industrial Providing the underlying infrastructure for development at the exit from limited access roads O Begin changing regulations to implement the changes acceptable to the community Long-Term (3-years+) O Continue implementing changes to land use regulation in a manner acceptable to the community and consistent with development trends O Meet with investors considering sites in Wood Dale to assist in property acquisition and infrastructure necessary to realize projects Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT 48

12 49 Wood Dale Comprehensive Plan Market Overview & Economic Development - REVIEW DRAFT