Auckland Council Quarterly Monitoring Report

Transcription

1 Auckland Council Quarterly Monitoring Report for the National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity June 2018

2 2018 Auckland Council Prepared by the Land Use, Infrastructure Research and Evaluation Team Research and Evaluation Unit June 2018

3 Summary of findings 1 Between January and March 2018, 1656 residential parcels were created 65 per cent new residential parcels were in Mixed Housing Suburban zone or Mixed Housing Urban zone Number of dwellings consented reached an all-time high; the 12-month rolling total is 11,192 A total of 2425 CCCs were issued Quarterly median residential sales price increased $5,000 to $810,000 More dwellings were sold between the $600,000 and $800,000 price range Housing affordability improved as a result of recent decline in residential prices and low interest rate Regional median rental price of a three bedrooms house remains at $570 per week 93 business parcels were created and 103 non-residential building consents had been issued Vacancy rate of office floorspace has risen by 0.8 per cent at the end of and it is expected to rise further in 2018 Residential zoned land Unitary Plan Under the Auckland Unitary Plan provisions, there is approximately 38,548 hectares residential zoned land, which consists eight per cent of the total land mass of the region. Detailed summary of the residential land composition is listed in table 1. Table 1: Total land area zoned for residential purposes Unitary Plan Zone Area (ha) Percentage Large Lot 2, % Mixed Housing Suburban 15, % Mixed Housing Urban 7, % Rural and Coastal Settlement 1, % Single House 8, % Terrace Housing and Apartment Building 2, % Total 38,548 - Residential land supply As listed in table 2, 1656 residential parcels were created from January to March in The majority of the residential parcels were in the Mixed Housing Suburban zone or Mixed Housing Urban zone. The general trend of residential land supply is on the rise, but various degrees of fluctuations have been observed (figure 1). The momentum of residential subdivision activities had been weaker than previous quarters since September. However, it had recovered slightly in March Disclaimer: Information in this report is sourced from a range of organisations, government departments and agencies. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information is correct however we cannot guarantee that it is error free. Auckland Council accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken by other organisations on the basis of the information contained within this report. NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 1

4 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Table 2: Residential parcels created by Unitary Plan zones Figure 2: Proportion of residential parcels created by Unitary Plan zones Unitary Plan Zone Q2 Q3 Q Large Lot Mixed Housing Suburban Mixed Housing Urban Rural and Coastal settlement Single House Terrace Housing and Apartment Buildings Total 1,652 1,482 2,264 2,374 1,656 Source: Land Information New Zealand and Auckland Council Figure 1: Residential land parcel creation (<5000m 2 ) - 12-month rolling total Source: Land information New Zealand and Auckland Council Single house zoned parcel creations had dropped from over 600 to 361. This is believed to be a seasonal variation as similar market behaviour has occurred in the same period of early. Source: Land Information New Zealand and Auckland Council There has been a spike (seven per cent) of residential parcels created in the Rural and Coastal settlement zone. This is resulted from a larger scale rural residential developments north of the Okura Estuary. NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 2

5 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Residential dwelling supply The number of dwellings consented continues to rise since 2013 which appears to be unaffected by the recent reduction in residential parcel creations. The 12-month rolling total in March 2018 has reached 11,192. Figure 3: Dwelling consents 12-month rolling total 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Table 4: No. of building consent issued by local board areas Local boards Q2 Q3 Q Albert-Eden Devonport- Takapuna Franklin Great Barrier Henderson Massey Hibiscus and Bays Howick Kaipātiki Manurewa Māngere-Ōtāhuhu Maungakiekie- Tāmaki Ōrākei Ōtara-Papatoetoe Papakura and Statistics New Zealand There has been 2579 dwelling units consented in the first three months of 2018 (table 4). Hibiscus and Bays, Upper Harbour, Albert-Eden, Manurewa and Papakura local board areas have seen the largest numbers of dwellings consented. Just over half of the consented dwelling units are detached houses, 21 per cent are apartments and 26 per cent are townhouses and similar kinds (Table 5) 2. Table 6 provides an aggregated view of the geographical distribution of residential dwellings consented for the previous four quarters. The overall trend suggests dwellings consented inside the Urban Area 2016 are increasing. The quarterly average has dipped by three per cent in early 2018 but has remained above 80 per cent. This is on track with the urban development target set by the Auckland Plan. Puketāpapa Rodney Upper Harbour Waiheke Waitākere Ranges Waitematā Whau Grand Total 2,517 2,825 3,270 2,579 and Statistics New Zealand Table 5: Dwelling consented in the 1 st quarter of 2018 by dwelling type Dwelling type Total % Apartments % Houses 1,305 51% Retirement village units 58 2% Townhouses, flats, units, and other dwellings % Grand Total 2,579 - Source: Statistics New Zealand Table 6: Proportion of consented dwellings inside and outside Urban Area 2016 Inside Urban Area 2016 Outside Urban Area 2016 Q2 73% 27% 2 It is worth noting that the Research and Evaluation Unit has identified the numbers of attached dwellings are mistakenly counted as houses due to input data errors which neither Statistics New Zealand nor the Research and Evaluation Unit can re-evaluate these numbers. Therefore, the proportion of attached dwellings is being under represented. Q3 80% 20% Q4 88% 12% % 15% and Statistics New Zealand NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 3

6 Code Compliance Certificate (CCCs) Dwellings completion rate has improved significantly in the past 12 months. The number of dwellings completed within the first two years of granting a building consent has increased by more than two fold dwellings have been completed in 2018 compared to 795 in the same period of (table 7). Table 7: Total CCCs issued per quarter by building consent issued year 0-2 yrs 3-4 yrs 5+ yrs Total ,728 Q2 1, ,068 Q3 1, ,928 Q4 1, , , ,425 In the first three months of 2018, Waitamatā Local Board area has seen the largest number of completed dwellings (445). This is due to the completions of three apartment buildings in the CBD and surrounding suburbs. Outside the isthmus, development hotspots such as Silverdale, Long Bay, Huapai, Riverhead, Hobsonville Point, Flat Bush, Takanini and Pukekohe continue to be the main source of Auckland s growing housing stock (Table 8). Table 8: Total residential CCCs issued per quarter by local boards Local board Q2 Q3 Q Albert - Eden Devonport - Takapuna Franklin Great Barrier Henderson - Massey Hibiscus and Bays Howick Kaipātiki Māngere-Ōtāhuhu Manurewa Maungakiekie - Tamaki Ōrākei Ōtara-Papatoetoe Papakura Puketāpapa Rodney Upper Harbour Waiheke Waitākere Ranges Waitematā Whau Grand Total 2,068 1,928 2,219 2,425 NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 4

7 Residential sales prices Residential sales prices peaked in late The regional sales price has remained below one million dollars for the past nine months. Currently, the regional median sales price is $810,000 at the end of March 2018 (Table 9). Table 9: Residential sales price all dwelling types (excluding vacant sites and residential carparks) Average price Median price Q2 $1,024,935 $845,000 Q3 $959,578 $818,500 Q4 $939,987 $805, $935,612 $810,000 As shown in Figure 2, residential sales price differential between dwellings sold inside and outside the Urban Area 2016 has remained constant. Although there has been a surge of average dwelling price outside the Urban Area 2016, it has not shifted the overall residential sales price. Despite the flattened sales price, only six out of all 21 local board areas in Auckland have seen average sales prices below $750,000 during January and March 2018 (table 10). Dwellings within close proximity to the city centre, are still selling above $1,000,000 on average. Although the housing market has not changed significantly over the past few months, more residential properties are sold at lower price ranges than before. That said, the geograpical distribution of these relatively affordable places (between $500,000 to $750,000) has not changed. They are mostly located within the southern and the western local board areas as shown on the next page. Figure 2: Average and median residential sales price since 2013 Residential sales volumes have bounced back to over four thousand from January to March this year (Table 10) after a significant drop in late. This could be a sign of improvement of market confidence. Residential sales price distribution is similar to the previous quarters at large, despite the increase in sales volume (Figure 3). The narrower bell curve of the red line demonstrates that there has been a surge in number of residential sales range between $600,000 and $800,000 from January to March Bear in mind, whether this surge is a function of dwellings becoming less expensive or is it related to the increase in number of small dwellings are sold, is yet to be better understood. The research unit is carrying out additional analyses on this topic. The results will be published in the following quarterly reports. NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 5

8 Table 10: Residential sales prices 2018 all dwelling types (excluding vacant sites and residential carparks) Average residential sales price distribution Median residential sales price distribution Local board Price range Q4 Ōrākei Greater than $1,538,977 Albert - Eden $1.25M $1,305,650 Devonport - Takapuna $1,244,899 Waiheke $1,138,580 Howick $1M - $1.25M $1,119,198 Upper Harbour $1,097,278 Puketapapa $1,058,681 Hibiscus and Bays $999,722 Kaipātiki $882,281 Maungakiekie-Tāmaki $870,824 Rodney $868,927 $750k $1M Waitematā $799,988 Henderson - Massey $793,248 Whau $789,845 Franklin $764,795 Waitākere Ranges $739,763 Papakura $712,643 Māngere-Ōtāhuhu $697,884 $500k - $750k Ōtara-Papatoetoe $671,404 Manurewa $650,608 Great Barrier $530,833 Local board Price range Q4 Ōrākei Greater than $1.25M $1,360,000 Devonport - Takapuna $1,160,000 Albert - Eden $1M - $1.25M $1,155,000 Upper Harbour $1,053,000 Puketapapa $999,000 Howick $994,000 Waiheke $950,000 Hibiscus and Bays $912,500 Maungakiekie-Tāmaki $750k - $1M $824,000 Kaipātiki $822,500 Rodney $776,000 Whau $766,402 Waitākere Ranges $750,000 Henderson - Massey $735,000 Māngere-Ōtāhuhu $697,500 Papakura $685,000 Franklin $500k - $750k $669,000 Ōtara-Papatoetoe $650,000 Manurewa $643,000 Waitematā $530,176 Great Barrier Less than $500k $495,000 NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 6

9 Table 10: Residential sales volume in All dwelling types Price range Q2 Q3 Q Q2 Q3 Q Number of dwellings sold Percentage of dwellings sold by price range < $100k % 1.95% 1.12% 0.85% $100k - $200k % 1.22% 1.15% 1.17% $200k - $300k % 1.68% 2.44% 2.09% $300k - $400k % 3.44% 3.16% 2.85% $400k - $500k % 5.80% 5.91% 5.10% $500k - $600k % 9.34% 10.56% 9.87% $600k - $700k % 12.23% 13.00% 14.25% $700k - $800k % 13.78% 12.80% 13.52% $800k - $900k % 11.36% 12.25% 11.66% $900k - $1M % 7.44% 9.00% 8.40% $1M - $1.1M % 5.89% 5.77% 5.78% $1.1M - $1.2M % 5.05% 4.79% 5.26% $1.2M - $1.3M % 4.55% 4.99% 4.06% $1.3M - $1.4M % 3.45% 2.95% 3.70% $1.4M - $1.5M % 2.07% 1.56% 2.39% $1.5M - $1.6M % 1.88% 1.66% 1.49% $1.6M - $1.7M % 1.73% 1.46% 1.29% $1.7M - $1.8M % 0.93% 0.61% 1.29% $1.8M - $1.9M % 0.77% 0.68% 0.60% $1.9M - $2M % 0.67% 0.64% 0.60% > $2M % 4.75% 3.50% 3.81% Total number sold 7,058 5,995 2,946 4, Figure 3: Percentage of residential sales by price range NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 7

10 Buyer classification According to CoreLogic s March Property Market and Economic Update, multiple-property owners make up 41 per cent of the buyer market in Auckland. The composition of buyer classifications has not changed. The recent number suggests that the proportion of first home buyers has increased to 23 per cent at the end of March this year (Figure 4). Figure 4: Residential property sales by buyer classification Housing affordability The increasing household size and changing household composition resulted from more wage-earning adults living in the same house have changed household income level across Auckland. This directly changes the household income level which needs to be acknowledged. The serviceability affordability model (SAM) has been amended to incorporate this changing household factor. The updated SAM index is showing housing affordability in March 2018 is 4.7 per cent less affordable compares to 2006 (figure 5). Figure 5: Serviceability affordability model (SAM) Source: CoreLogic We are yet to receive the detailed dataset which captures buyer classifications at a disaggregated level 3. Given the fact that most of the residential dwellings sold at the lower price range are located in the Southern and Western local board areas, it is likely to see first home buyers being relatively active in these local market segments. Source: Chief Economist Unit, Auckland Council; Real Estate Institute of New Zealand; Reserve Bank of New Zealand 3 Future monitoring report will be looking at spatial distributions of each buyer groups to provide better understandings of Auckland s housing market. NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 8

11 Rental market The rental market remains predominately unchanged (Table 11). The regional median rental price of a threebedroom house is $570. Four out of 21 local boards have seen a two per cent rental price increase. Papakura is the only local board area with a two per cent decrease in rental price compared to a year ago. Table 11: Comparison of median residential rental prices of a three-bedroom house by local board area Table 12: Total land area zoned for business purposes Unitary Plan Zone Area (Ha) Percentage Business Park % City Centre % General Business % Heavy Industry 1, % Local board 2018 Change in % Light Industry 4, % Local Centre % Albert - Eden $660 $670 2% Devonport - Takapuna $660 $670 2% Franklin $460 $460 0% Great Barrier Henderson - Massey $480 $480 0% Hibiscus and Bays $560 $570 2% Howick $560 $560 0% Kaipātiki $560 $560 0% Māngere-Ōtāhuhu $490 $490 0% Manurewa $490 $490 0% Maungakiekie - Tamaki $580 $590 2% Ōrākei $700 $700 0% Ōtara-Papatoetoe $500 $500 0% Papakura $470 $460-2% Puketāpapa $560 $560 0% Rodney $450 $450 0% Upper Harbour $590 $590 0% Waiheke Waitākere Ranges $500 $500 0% Waitematā $870 $870 0% Whau $510 $510 0% Average percentage of increase 0% Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Business zoned land area Unitary Plan Across Auckland, there is over 9,000 hectares of land area zoned for business purpose (Table 12). The two largest business zones are Light Industry and Heavy Industry zones. The combination of the two is equivalent to approximately 70 per cent of the total business land mass. Metropolitan Centre % Mixed Use % Neighbourhood Centre % Town Centre % Total 9,205 - Business land supply A total of 92 business zoned parcels has been created in the first quarter (Table 13). Among which, 41 per cent of the new business parcels are located within the Light Industry zone and 29 per cent are located in the Mixed Use zone. Table 13: Business parcels created by Unitary Plan zones Unitary Plan Zone Q2 Q3 Q Business Park City Centre General Business Heavy Industry Light Industry Local Centre Metropolitan Centre Mixed Use Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre Total Source: Land Information New Zealand and Auckland Council NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 9

12 Business building consents The number of business buildings consented remains steady. More buildings are consented in Waitematā than other local boards (Table 14). Table 14: No. of business buildings consented in by local board area Local board Q2 Q3 Q Albert - Eden Devonport - Takapuna Franklin Great Barrier Henderson - Massey Hibiscus and Bays Howick Kaipātiki Māngere- Ōtāhuhu Manurewa Maungakiekie - Tamaki Ōrākei Ōtara- Papatoetoe Papakura Puketāpapa Rodney Upper Harbour Waiheke Waitematā Whau Grand Total and Statistics New Zealand Table 15 lists the total amount of business floorspace consented by quarters, which shows the consenting activity has remained high since mid-. This is largely driven by factories and/or warehouse types of developments. Howick local board area has seen the largest amount of floorspace consented in the latest quarter due to business expansions at Highbrook Business Park. Other noticeable business developments are also found in Mangakiekie-Tamaki (Mt Wellington), Whau (Rosebank), Māngere-Ōtāhuhu (Māngere South) and Hibiscus and Bays (Long Bay). Table 15: Total business floorspace (m 2 ) consented by local board area Local board Q2 Q3 Q Albert - Eden 1, , Devonport - Takapuna ,217-2,000 Franklin 4, , ,989 Great Barrier Henderson - Massey Hibiscus and Bays 3,987 2,052 3,728 7,001 3, ,926 5,845 7,175 17,227 Howick 13,472 2,787 9,228 22,497 37,388 Kaipātiki 165 3, Māngere - Ōtāhuhu 19,250 33,760 25,093 7,911 11,399 Manurewa 640 4,007 12,086 17,182 11,273 Maungakiekie - Tamaki 19,516 1,194 29,682 1,920 17,477 Ōrākei Ōtara - Papatoetoe 3,578 7, ,944 Papakura 2,260 1,337 2, ,835 Puketāpapa 211 1, Rodney 1,355 1,709 12,103 1,567 2,540 Upper Harbour ,503 17,716 11,706 3,859 Waiheke Waitematā 51,524 12,590 62,270 31,544 5,452 Whau 2,978-2,945-13,769 Grand Total 125, , , , ,432 and Statistics New Zealand Business occupancy The latest CBRE report 4 has indicated the overall vacancy rate of the CBD office space has increased by 13,800m 2 (8.9%) in the second half of. While most of the new floorspace stock is coming from newly completed office buildings in the fringe areas of the CBD, the shrinking number of education sector tenants has resulted in additional office space becoming vacant in the CBD. Similarly, non-cbd office vacancies have also increased to 7.9 per cent in December. Industrial vacancy rate has dropped to 1.3 per cent at the end of which Lincoln, Wiri and East Tamaki continues to experience stronger growth. Retail activities are also growing steadily, as overall vacancy rate down from 2.4 per cent to 1.7 per cent in December. 4 CBRE, Auckland property market monitor a report providing detailed data and analysis, February 2018 NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 10

13 Glossary of terms Apartment Multiple dwellings which are attached vertically or horizontally with shared access, parking, open space and other facilities. Attached dwelling A dwelling that is connected in some way to one or more other dwellings. This includes apartments (high-, medium- and low-rise) terraced houses, and duplexes. Average A number expressing the central or typical value in a set of data, which is calculated by dividing the sum of the values in the set by their number. Building consent A building consent is the formal approval, under section 49 of the Building Act 2004, for an applicant to undertake building work. Building work includes work in connection with the construction, alteration, demolition or removal of a building. The reporting of building consent data has two important aspects 1) the number of consents issued and 2) the numbers of structures (including dwellings) that are consented. Code Compliance Certificate (CCC) A code compliance certificate (CCC) is a formal statement issued under section 95 of the Building Act 2004, that building work carried out under a building consent complies with that building consent. For more information refer to the Building and Housing section of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Deposited Plan (DP) Sometimes also known as a Title Plan, these are plans recording land transfer subdivisions that have been deposited by the Registrar General of Lands. This could be a simple plan of the property's boundaries, area and dimensions, a detailed survey plan or a combination of both. Plans are identified by a number and a DP prefix such as DP Most modern land transfers are identified by their position on a specific deposited plan, e.g. Lot 123 DP Detached dwelling Dwellings that are not connected to another dwelling. This can include traditional suburban houses on small or large lots and housing in rural areas. District Valuation Roll (DVR) Territorial authorities (including Auckland Council) are required under the Rating Valuations Act 1998 to prepare and maintain a district valuation roll which contains the information, including valuation, for each rating unit within the district. Dwelling A dwelling is any building or structure, or part thereof, that is used (or intended to be used) for the purpose of human habitation. Floorspace Floorspace is the measurement of the floor area of a building or buildings, usually measured in square metres. Lot An area of land which is: (i) comprised in a single certificate of title; or (ii) contained in a single allotment on an approved survey plan of subdivision for which a separate certificate of title could be issued without the further consent of the territorial local authority, being in any case the smaller land area of (i) or (ii); or (b) an area of land which is composed of two or more contiguous allotments held together in one certificate of title in such a way that the allotments cannot be dealt with separately without the prior consent of the territorial local authority; or (c) an area of land which is composed of two or more contiguous allotments held in two or more certificates of title where such titles are held together in such a way that they cannot be dealt with separately without the prior consent of the territorial local authority; except that where an area of land is contained or described in a title issued under the Unit Titles Act 2010 or is a cross-lease form of title, the site is the underlying land out of which the unit title or cross-lease title has been, or is proposed to be issued. Commonly used to describe a Parcel of land, specifically on a Deposited Plan. Can also be known as a site, section or property. Median The median is the middle number. Mode The mode is the number which occurs most often in a set of data. Parcel A cadastral polygon with a legal description (can also be known as a property, section or lot). See also Lot. Section Can also be known as a site, or lot. Generally a reference to a parcel. Suburb An identifiable area within a local authority area, usually urban in character, with facilities such as those for education, transport, and shopping. Auckland Council does not set the boundaries or the names of suburbs in any formal manner. The most commonly used suburb names and geographic definitions used across New Zealand, including in Auckland are maintained and supplied by the emergency services (led by the New Zealand Fire Service). NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 11

14 Before its amalgamation into the new Auckland Council, the North Shore City Council undertook a process to geographically define and name suburbs within its jurisdiction. The final suburb extents and their names were gazetted by New Zealand Geographic Board in 2007 and Terraced housing Three of more attached dwellings, side-by-side, on an individual site (normally without shared land or facilities). Townhouse A type of terrace house. See Terraced housing. NPS UDC Quarterly Monitoring Report June 2018 Page 12

15

16 Find out more: phone , or visit aucklandcouncil.govt.nz and knowledgeauckland.org.nz