22, 2013 BUY HIGH RISK PRICE

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1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of the report Sushil Financial Services Private Limited Regd. Office : 12, Homji Street, Fort, Mumbai Robust Business Model Ashiana Housing has a robust business model, with focus on affordable housing, in house construction, facility management and in house sales providing flexibility at all stages. Its strategy of treating land as a raw material keeps its balance sheet unleveraged, cashflows positive, enhances returns and provides flexibility in the choice of market. The Company, on back of its reputed brand image in Tier II and Tier III cities, also enters into partnership project with the land owners on profit sharing basis. Thus, despite of operating in the debt prone real estate sector, it is net debt free, with higher return ratios. It has geographically diversified its operations with presence across 6 7 tier II & III cities like Bhiwadi, Jaipur, Lavasa, Jamshedpur, Jodhpur and Neemrana etc. Equivalent Area Constructed to grow at a CAGR of 36.9% In the past 30yrs Ashiana housing has delivered 117 LSF of area. Its equivalent area constructed has increased at a CAGR of 22% in the last five years from 5.5 LSF in FY07 to 14.6 LSF (FY12). It is likely to close on 12.1 LSF of area constructed for FY13E, which it plans to increase to 22.7 LSF by FY15E, i.e. a CAGR of 36.9% for the next two years. To keep up to the growth numbers, the Company already has projects entailing a developable area of 74 LSF as on 9MFY13 including projects like residential, retail and retirement resorts, which gives revenue visibility for the next 3 4 years. It is also likely to launch 5 more projects in the next 3 6 months of 69 LSF in Jaipur, Jodhpur, Halol and Bhiwadi. Apart from this, the company also has land of 38.5 LSF for future development thus providing visibility for future growth. Change in Accounting Policy A conservative approach, instills management confidence Till date Ashiana Housing was following Percentage of Completion Method which it is now shifting to Contract Completion Method, with older projects following the POC method. Under contract completion, revenues are recognized when the unit is completed and either possession is transferred or deemed to be transferred to the customer. Benefits of Contract Completion Method 1) Accurately reflects the assets and liabilities of the company, 2) Precise Margins as they will be on actual cost incurred and not estimated project cost, 3) Helps maintain financial discipline ensuring that the cash inflows from one project are utilized towards the cash outflows of the same project, 4) Contract based method is in compliance with IFRS standards. The next two years will be a transition phase and hence Revenues and profits recognized in FY13 and FY14 will be significantly lower than that recognized in previous year. Shifting of accounting policy though would bring with it short term pain but from a long term perspective it will better capture the financial health of the company. OUTLOOK & VALUATION On the back of robust execution based business model, strategy of treating Land as a raw material, focus on affordable housing in Tier II and Tier III cities, pioneer venture in conceptual projects such as Retirement house, the Company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 64% from FY13E to FY15E. However the change in accounting policy to Contract Completion method is likely to bring along volatility in numbers for the next two years as older projects are nearing completion and the new projects would complete in next 1 2 years. We thus believe that Cashflow from operations and EAC would now be a better parameter to gauge the company s growth as earnings are likely to be lumpy in short term. Being a net debt free company with relatively stable cashflows, the stock is attractively trading at 4.7x its FY15E EPS of Rs.52. However, being real estate business in nature, we have valued the company using SOTP method valuing real estate by NPV and Hotel & Retail by DCF, giving us price objective of Rs.322. KEY FINANCIALS (Consol.) Re Instating Coverage Ashiana Housing Ltd. April 22, 2013 BUY HIGH RISK PRICE Rs.244 TARGET Rs.322 REAL ESTATE BUY Price Target INITIAL RECO SHARE HOLDING (%) Rs.122 Rs.165 Promoters 66.9 FII 1.4 FI/MF 0.0 Body Corporate 8.3 Public & Others 23.3 Reuters Code Bloomberg Code BSE Code NSE Symbol Market Capitalization* Shares Outstanding* STOCK DATA AHFN.BO ASFI.IN ASHIANA Rs mn $ 84.0 mn 18.6 Mn 52 Weeks (H/L) Rs.260 / 145 Avg. Daily Volume (6m) 5248 Shares Price Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M (2) Days EMA: Rs.209 *On fully diluted equity shares Part of Classic ANALYST Ishpreet Batra SALES Devang Shah /61 STRENGTH: Presence in Tier II&III cities, Affordable Housing, Execution based business model, Pioneer in Retirement House, Reputed Brand, Strong Balance Sheet Net debt free & Higher return ratios. WEAKNESS: Major presence in North India. OPPORTUNITIES: Huge demand for affordable house in India & Growing popularity of Retirement house. THREAT: Higher Interest Rates & Property Prices to check volume growth. Y/E Mar. Revenue (Rs Mn) RPAT (Rs Mn) EPS (Rs) EPS (% Ch.) P/E (x) ROCE (%) ROE (%) P/BV (x) FY FY13E (49) FY14E FY15E For private Circulation Only. Member: BSEL, SEBI Regn.No. INB/F NSEIL, SEBI Regn.No.INB/F Phone: Fax:

2 COMPANY BACKGROUND Ashiana Housing is a growing firm in the Indian real estate sector. The Company has chiefly undertaken residential, group housing, retirement resorts, and hotel as well as retail projects in the past. The company is a pioneer in conceptual projects like retirement resorts in India. Expanding Patna Jamshedpur Bhiwadi Neemrana Jaipur Jodhpur Ghaziabad Lavasa Halol Kolkata Source: Company *First Organized developer in Patna, Jamshedpur, Bhiwadi, Neemrana, Jaipur, Jodhpur It had started its operations in Patna, from where it expanded its reach to other Tier II and Tier III cities. It has now expanded its reach in Delhi (NCR), Rajasthan and Maharashtra. It has built and delivered projects in Bhiwadi, Jaipur, Jodhpur and Jamshedpur. The Company has so far built and delivered an area of 117 LSF. It believes in selling Lifestyle than a house, a perfect example of which is its Retirement House at Bhiwadi, Jaipur and Lavasa. The Company has two wholly owned subsidiaries: Ashiana Retirement Villages Ltd.(ARVL) Ashiana Retirement Villages Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of the company and specializes in the housing needs for senior citizens under the brand name Active Senior Living. Vatika Marketing Ltd.(VML) Vatika Marketing Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of the company and is engaged in providing maintenance services to projects developed by Ashiana Housing. April 22,

3 INVESTMENT RATIONALE Robust Business Model Ashiana Housing has a robust business model, with focus on affordable housing. The company follows a 5 prong strategy which provides flexibility and stability to its business model. LOW CAPITAL EMPLOYED Joint Development Model lowers investment requirements. Operates in Areas where land cost is a smaller component of total cost FACILITIES MANAGEMENT Selling a quality Lifestyle rather than just a house Provides input to development team to improve quality over long term. Robust Business Model LAND IS RAW MATERIAL Execution focused model instead of Land Banking. Targeted land inventory 5 7 yrs of current EAC DIRECT SALES TEAM In house team selling to actual users and long term investors instead of broker driven model selling to speculative investors Provides better market insights IN HOUSE CONSTRUCTION Allows cost & quality control. Flexibility in execution with faster adaptation to changing industry dynamics Source: Sushil Finance Research Low Capital Employed: On the back of its reputed brand image in Tier II and Tier III cities, Ashiana enters into partnership projects with the land owners on profit sharing basis thus reducing the time and capital requirement in terms of land conversion process, development rights and land cost. This enables the company to execute the projects faster with lower capital requirement. Source: Sushil Finance Research Estimates April 22,

4 Out of the total ongoing and to be launched projects ~40% is through partnership. Land is Raw Material: The company follows an execution focused model instead of land banking. At any given time the company s land inventory does not exceed 5 7x its current EAC, thus providing revenue visibility for at least 5 years. This helps the company to keep its balance sheet unleveraged and reduces the working capital requirement x Buildable Inventory / EAC (x) 5.7x x Ongoing Projects To be Launched Future projects Source: Sushil Finance Research Estimates As seen in the diagram above, the company s ongoing projects of 74 LSF is 6.1x its FY13E EAC of 12.1 LSF, which means buildable inventory of 6 years. However most of the ongoing projects are on the verge of completion and also the EAC is likely to increase to 20.5 LSF in FY14E. Thus for the future growth there are new projects to be launched of 69 LSF which again provides a visibility of 5 6 yrs based on FY13E EAC of 12.1 LSF. In House Construction: The In house construction strategy allows cost and quality control. It provides flexibility in execution with faster adaptation to changing industry dynamics. In House Sales Team: The company has in house sales team which sells directly to the actual users and long term investors rather than broker driven model selling to speculative investors. Also it helps the company to get better market insights and customer feedback. Facilities Management: VML is a wholly owned subsidiary of the company that provides quality maintenance to all Ashiana Properties. Although, not being a very profitable segment, this business helps in understanding the customers better and completes the entire value chain. This is also a direct feedback channel which helps in continuously understanding the customer s expectations and improving its products accordingly. It also makes the primary information on markets like resale and rental values, occupancies etc, readily available to take further strategic calls. April 22,

5 Vatika Marketing Ltd FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Revenue (Rs.Mn) Area Managed (LSF) Source: Sushil Finance Research Estimates This five pronged strategy thus helps the company to keep its balance sheet unleveraged, cashflows positive, higher return ratios and provides flexibility in the choice of market. 600 Cash Flow from Operations (Rs.Mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY Return Ratios (%) 40.0 Profitability Margins (%) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 ROCE (%) ROE (%) EBIDTA Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) Source: Company April 22,

6 Thus, despite of operating in the debt prone real estate sector, the Company is net debt free, with higher ROCE and ROE of ~30%. The company has geographically diversified its operations with presence across 6 7 tier II & III cities like Bhiwadi, Jaipur, Lavasa, Jamshedpur, Jodhpur and Neemrana etc thus reducing the geographical risk. Equivalent Area Constructed to grow at a CAGR of 36.9% In the past 30 years, Ashiana housing has delivered 117 LSF of area. Its equivalent area constructed has increased at a CAGR of 22% in the last five years to 14.6 LSF (FY12) EAC & Area Booked (LSF) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E EAC Booking Source: Sushil Finance Research Estimates It is likely to close on 12.1 LSF of area constructed for FY13E lower than 14.6 LSF of FY12 due to non availability of buildable inventory as approvals got delayed at various land parcels. However the company has recently launched two new projects Ashiana Angan Neemrana of 4.2 LSF in Q3FY13 and Treehouse Residencies of 1.2 LSF in Q4FY13 which would help pull up the EAC. It is also likely to launch five new projects at Jaipur, Bhiwadi, Jodhpur, Jamshedpur and Halol. ONGOING PROJECTS Project Name Location Type Profit Share (%) Saleable Area (LSF) Area Launched (LSF) Area Booked (LSF) Booked/ Launched (%) Ashiana Angan Bhiwadi Group Housing 100% % Utsav Jaipur Active Senior Living 65% % Ashiana Brahmananda Ashiana Amarbagh Jamshedpur Group Housing 100% % Jodhpur Group Housing 100% % Utsav Lavasa Lavasa Active Senior Living 100% % Rangoli Gardens Jaipur Group Housing 50% % Marine Plaza Jamshedpur Retail 100% % Treehouse Residencies Ashiana Neemrana Bhiwadi Group Housing 100% % Neemrana Group Housing 100% % Total % Source: Company April 22,

7 Of the total ongoing projects, ~85% projects are of group housing, 14% retirement housing and 1% is Retail. The Company is basically focusing its presence in the Tier II and Tier III cities like Bhiwadi, Jaipur, Jamshedpur & Jodhpur of which Bhiwadi accounts for 29% of the total developable area and Jaipur 40%. Source: Company It is also likely to launch 5 more projects in the next 3 6 months of 69 LSF in Jaipur, Jodhpur, Jamshedpur, Halol and Bhiwadi. To Be Launched Projects Project Name Location Type Profit Sharing (%) Saleable Area (LSF) Anantara ** Jamshedpur Group Housing 75% 4.7 Gulmohar Gardens Jaipur Group Housing 50% 11.5 Ashiana Navrang Halol Group Housing 81% 6.4 Ashiana Town Thada Group Housing 100% 41.0 Ashiana Dwarka Jodhpur Group Housing 75% 5.3 Total 69.0 Source: Company, Sushil Finance Research Estimates ** Launched in Q4FY13 Apart from this the company also has land of 38.5 LSF for future development thus providing visibility for future growth. Land Name Location Type of Project Utsav Kolkata Active Senior Living Milakpur Land Bhiwadi Group Housing Future Developable Land Land Area (Acres) Saleable Area (LSF) Total 38.5 Source: Company, Sushil Finance Research Estimates Remarks Approvals yet to be obtained by the landowner Approvals yet to be obtained by Ashiana April 22,

8 Keeping in mind the pipeline of projects, the company targets to achieve an EAC of 20 LSF in FY14E. Thus considering the company s past performance and project pipeline, we believe that the EAC is likely to grow at a CAGR of 36.9% for the next two years. Affordable Housing to grow on increasing urbanization and favorable demographics The real estate market in India is largely driven by Increase in the Middle Income Segment Increasing Urbanization Shrinking Household Size Shift in Consumer Preferences from Renting to Owning Houses Increase in the Middle Income Segment: India's growing population in the earning age bracket coupled with an increase in disposable income in this bracket is recognized as a key driver of growth in housing demand. Source: United Nations As seen in the figure above, the population between the age group of years is likely to grow at a much faster pace in the next one decade, thereby adding to the spending power. Approximately 270 mn people are likely to be added in the working age group population by Million Household Rich Middle Class Poor The number of people in the middle class is likely to increase at a CAGR of 8.6% to 128mn, while that in the rich category is likely to increase by 12.4% thereby increasing the average national income of the country and thus affordability. Increasing Urbanization: India has witnessed a trend of increased urbanization from 26% of the total population living in urban areas in 1991 to 29% in With demographics tilting more towards group and growth in the employment opportunities in the urban area, urbanization is likely to increase going ahead. According to McKinsey Global Institute, the population of the urban areas in India is likely to increase from 340 mn in 2008 to 590 mn by 2030, which will be 40% of India s total population as seen in the diagram on the next page: April 22,

9 1600 Population trend 100% % % % 28% 29% 40% 40% 0 20% Urban Population (Million) Rural Population (Million) Urbanization Rate Source: McKinsey Global Institute Urbanization is likely to scale up at an accelerating pace in India. According to McKinsey Global Institute, India will have 68 cities with population of more than 1 mn, 13 cities with population more than 4 mn and 6 megacities with population more than 10 mn by Source: McKinsey Global Institute With this rapid increase in urbanization, mn square meters of commercial and residential space needs to be built. Also, the GDP contribution from the cities is likely to increase from the current 58% to 69% by Shrinking Household Size: India's traditional joint family (or multi occupant) residences are gradually being replaced by individual or smaller nuclear family residences. Increasing young population moving towards urban areas for better job opportunities has resulted into contraction in the size of the average household thereby increasing the demand for housing. Shift in Consumer Preferences from Renting to Owning Houses: India's changing demographic profile has led to a steady decline in the proportion of households living in rented premises. Due to a shortage of properties available for rent and an increase in the rents being charged to tenants, consumers have increasingly been investing in property. Change in mindset of customers is also playing an important role. People were debt averse in the past, but now with rising affordability & aspiration levels, Debt is considered as alternative resource to match the dream. Factors such as increase in the standard of living of consumers and the greater availability of financing for consumers are expected to fuel a further decline in the number of households renting premises. April 22,

10 Increasing urbanization coupled with change in preference from renting to owning houses is thus likely to drive the demand for affordable housing. Considering the burgeoning demand and shortage in the affordable housing space, we believe that the there is a lot of unleashed potential in the affordable housing space. Ashiana Housing, which majorly focuses in the affordable housing space is thus likely to be the key beneficiary of this rise in demand. Change in Accounting Policy A conservative approach, instills management confidence Broadly real estate companies follow two type of accounting policies 1) Percentage of Completion (POC) Method and 2) Contract Completion (CC) Method. Till date Ashiana Housing was following Percentage of Completion Method but it is now shifting to Contract Completion Method, with older projects following the POC method. Benefits of POC method are that as the construction happens and projects get booked, revenues are recognized so there is smoothness in reported revenues over quarters. Under contract completion, revenues are recognized when the unit is completed and either possession is transferred or deemed to be transferred to the customer. Till that time, whatever cash inflows happen from customers on the projects are recorded in the current liabilities under Advance from Customers and direct expenses incurred are accounted in Work in Progress under inventories in the Balance Sheet. Revenue recognition thus tends to get lumpy as units tend to be delivered in batches and not continuously. It also delays revenue recognition till the completion of units. Benefits of Contract Completion Method Accurately reflects the assets and liabilities of the company Precise Margins as they will be on actual cost incurred and not estimated project cost. Helps maintain financial discipline ensuring that the cash inflows from one project are utilized towards the cash outflows of the same project. Contract based method is in compliance with IFRS standards, making its financial statements comparable with global peers. The next two years will be a transition phase when the projects nearing completion will be accounted under POC method and all the new projects under contract completion will be inconstruction mode, hence creating volatility in revenues reported. Revenues and profits recognized in the next two years (FY13E, FY14E) will be significantly lower than that recognized in previous years and will not be comparable to the previous year s figures. 3,500 3,000 Net Sales (Rs.Mn) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , , , , , , ,322.9 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Partnership Projects (L.H.S) Own Projects (L.H.S) Source: Sushil Finance Research Estimates April 22,

11 As can be seen from the diagram above Net Sales in FY13E are likely to come down as older projects are nearing completion and the new projects would complete in the next 1 2 years. Shifting of accounting policy though would bring with it short term pain but from a long term perspective it will better capture the financial health of the company. This method will also incentivize the company to deliver the projects faster to ensure growth in revenues. We thus believe that Cashflow from operations and EAC would now be a parameter to gauge the company s growth as earnings are likely to be lumpy in short term. Valuations Ashiana Housing having strong balance sheet and an excellent track record is attractively trading at 4.7x times its FY15E EPS. However, being real estate business in nature, we have valued the company using SOTP method valuing real estate by NPV and Hotel & Retail by DCF, giving us price objective of Rs.322. Ongoing and Future Projects to be launched Land Valuation Method Value/Share NPV Market Value Less 20% Discount 23.4 Hotel DCF 12.0 SOTP 322 Source: Sushil Finance Research Estimates RISK AND CONCERNS High Interest Rate Scenario Labour Shortage April 22,

12 PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT (Consol.) Rs.Mn Y/E March FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Total Sales Ongoing Project Exp Hotel & Club Expenses Employee Exp Administration & Sales Total Expenditure PBIDT Interest Depreciation Other Income PBT incl OI Tax RPAT BALANCE SHEET STATEMENT (Consol.) Rs.Mn As on 31 st March FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Net Worth Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Loan funds Deferred Tax Capital Employed Net Block Investments Sundry Debtors Cash & Bank Bal Loans & Advances Inventory Curr Liab & Prov Net Current Assets Total Assets FINANCIAL RATIO STATEMENT (Consol.) Y/E March FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Growth (%) Net Sales 61.8 (43.1) EBITDA 53.9 (55.3) Net Profit 58.6 (48.7) Profitability (%) EBIDTA Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROCE (%) ROE (%) Per Share Data (Rs.) EPS (Rs.) CEPS (Rs.) BVPS (Rs) Valuation PER (x) PEG (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Net Sales (x) Turnover Debtor Days Creditor Days Gearing Ratio D/E Source: Company, Sushil Finance Research Estimates CASH FLOW STATEMENT (Consol.) Rs.Mn Y/E March. FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Profit before tax & Extraordinary Items Depreciation & Amortization Chg. in Working Capital Cash Flow from Operating (Incr)/ Decr in Gross PP&E (Incr)/Decr In Investments Cash Flow from Investing , (639.1) (154.3) 74.4 (269.5) (48.5) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (163.5) (114.0) (300.0) (300.0) (207.3) (214.0) (400.0) (400.0) (Decr)/Incr in Debt (64.7) (51.1) (Decr)/Incr in Share Capital Dividend (49.0) (49.0) (65.3) (65.3) Cash Flow from Financing Cash at the End of the Year (49.0) (130.0) (116.4) April 22,

13 Rating Scale This is a guide to the rating system used by our Institutional Research Team. Our rating system comprises of six rating categories, with a corresponding risk rating. Risk Rating Risk Description Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk Predictability of Earnings / Dividends; Price Volatility High predictability / Low volatility Moderate predictability / volatility Low predictability / High volatility Total Expected Return Matrix Rating Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk Buy Over 15 % Over 20% Over 25% Accumulate 10 % to 15 % 15% to 20% 20% to 25% Hold 0% to 10 % 0% to 15% 0% to 20% Sell Negative Returns Negative Returns Negative Returns Neutral Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Rated Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Please Note Recommendations with Neutral Rating imply reversal of our earlier opinion (i.e. Book Profits / Losses). ** Indicates that the stock is illiquid With a view to combat the higher acquisition cost for illiquid stocks, we have enhanced our return criteria for such stocks by five percentage points. Stock Review Reports: These are Soft coverage s on companies where Management access is difficult or Market capitalization is below Rs mn. Views and recommendation on such companies may not necessarily be based on management meeting but may be based on the publicly available information and/or attending Company AGMs. Hence Stock Reviews may be just one time coverage s with an occasional Update, wherever possible. Additional information with respect to any securities referred to herein will be available upon request. This report is prepared for the exclusive use of Sushil Group clients only and should not be reproduced, re circulated, published in any media, website or otherwise, in any form or manner, in part or as a whole, without the express consent in writing of Sushil Financial Services Private Limited. Any unauthorized use, disclosure or public dissemination of information contained herein is prohibited. This report is to be used only by the original recipient to whom it is sent. This is for private circulation only and the said document does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein at their own risk. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer, to buy or sell any security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the material. The information, on which the report is based, has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Sushil Financial Services Private Limited and its connected companies, and their respective directors, officers and employees (to be collectively known as SFSPL), may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the securities mentioned and may sell or buy such securities. SFSPL may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior to the publication thereof. The Investment horizon of this report is approximately 1 year. Any calls which lapse the time duration of a year would be auto closed without any further notifications/updates. Clients are requested to keep track of the same. April 22,

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