North Seattle College RES 217 Session 5. Market Feasibility and Financial Analysis

Transcription

1 North Seattle College RES 217 Session 5 Market Feasibility and Financial Analysis Preliminary Analysis Completed Back-of-the-Envelope Analysis (aka, Back-of-the-Napkin) Main advantage to back-of-the envelope analysis. Analysis forces the developer to make explicit assumption concerning project. land uses, site planning, sales rates (units) / sale of building, prices, cost, financing. Analysis assumptions can then be rested against market data. Exercise provides ta rough indication of whether or not the deal makes economic sense. Serves the foundation for all subsequent investigation(s). Provide Financial Feasibility Support Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 1

2 In the News What I learned! Unknown! What need to know! What I learned/discovered that will move my Project Forward! What I need to KNOW to move Project FORWARD! Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 2

3 In the News Project Development Example of DCI Permit Process AND a Case Study Lake Union Partners $30 million plan for the languishing 111 year old Eitel Building. Built in 1904, Eitel was designated a historic landmark in Developers are seeking a permit: add an eighth floor for guest rooms and rooftop bar. In the News Project Development Example of DCI Permit Process AND a Case Study Miami Beach on Elliott Bay? Opponents decry proposed 12-story Pioneer Square building Seattle Times 1/21/16 siness/real-estate/century-oldmostly-vacant-eitel-building-maysee-new-life/ proposed-12-story-pioneer-square-tower/ /01/20/pioneer-square-apartment-plans-sparkdebate/ / Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 3

4 Project 1 Assignment Item 7: Determine if site is affected by an endangered species or community area, e.g. Salmon Watershed, Spotted Owl Habitat, etc. Affect???? What is the impact on your site? Restrictions? Loss of Utility. Project 1 Assignment Item 11:Assessment of Sustainability (5 points):examine the sustainability indicators Reference the book, i.e., Office development, page 258. Design - materials, systems, etc. Energy Sustainability - O&M use of Energy Conservation Measures. Water Conservation and Reuse - LID SMART Building controls, real time data, etc. Waste management Key: research an area of interest for your development project. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 4

5 Secure Project Financing Provide Market Feasibility Support Provide Financial Feasibility Support Market Feasibility Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 5

6 Market Conditions Rental Rates Concessions Vacancy factor Space overhang (total available including subleases) Absorption rate. Market Feasibility Analysis: Elements Provided to Lender General Defines competitive market area including region and sub markets. Tests demand for additional space in projected development time frame. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 6

7 Market Feasibility Analysis: Elements Provided to Lender (cont.) Demand Analysis Defines employment patterns. Segments employment trends to tenant types. Considers potential tenant preferences and requirements as related to building specifications and floor layouts Estimates net rentable demand per year. Considers market effect of sustainable program. Market Feasibility Analysis General Defines competitive market area including region and sub markets. Tests whether demand exists for additional space in projected development time frame. Initially performed by developer with information from readily available information sources. Provides direction for site selection (market segment). Provides input for financial analysis (feasibility) After initial developer analysis, a market research firm is usually retained. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 7

8 Market Feasibility Analysis Supply Analysis Effective Rent (scheduled rates and terms minus concessions) offered by the competition are hard to determine but are a strong indicator of real market conditions Effective rental income = Potential rental income minus (Vacancy and credit losses). Credit Loss = rent in arrears (not paid), eviction or bankruptcy proceeding cost, any result of loss of rental income and/or additional collection and legal expenses. Determines the competitive supply of existing, under construction and planned space in the defined market area and submarket area. Market Feasibility Analysis Supply Analysis (CONTINUED) Provides the basis for computing opportunity for the proposed development. (Projected demand vs projected supply) The natural vacancy rate is considered and factored into the calculation of aggregate supply. Natural or stabilized vacancy is the vacancy rate resulting from turnover not from increases in supply (vacancy increases) or increasing demand (vacancy deceased). Space available for sub lease is an important element of the competitive supply. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 8

9 Market Feasibility Analysis Demand Analysis Estimates net rentable demand per year. Considers market effect of sustainable program. Market Analysis Data and Sources Reference: Professional Real Estate Development, assigned book. Page 244, Figure 5-3. Market Feasibility Analysis Demand Analysis Employee SF Mobility (of work) is heart of the discussion. As teleworking gains momentum, many companies will need less space per worker. As an industry, will see huge changes in the amount of space per worker in the future, stated GSA s Chief Asset Officer Gavin Bloch Reference: BOMA - Thought Leaders Examine Work Space and Workforce Dynamics in Work-Space-and-Workforce-Dynamics-in aspx Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 9

10 Market Feasibility Analysis Demand Analysis Project office space demand= Number of Projected office employees X Gross space per employee. Reference: Professional Real Estate Development, assigned book, Page 244. US Office Space per worker trending down. Market Feasibility Analysis Regulatory Issues Definition of zoning and land use parameters in the proposed development market area must be clearly understood. Community attitudes toward development should be ascertained. Impact fees, affordable housing requirements and environmental Typical permitting time lines and fees must be defined and factored into the development feasibility model. Extra opportunities for density (FAR Floor Area Ratio) modifications such as TDRs (Transfer of Development Rights) should be examined. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 10

11 Market Feasibility Analysis Site Selection Can be tenant driven and/or market driven. Availability determined beyond listed properties. Highest and best use should be consistent with the intended development project. Evaluate location within the defined submarket the building type in terms of physical and tenant market perspective. Defined site alternatives provide building program basis for financial feasibility analysis. Site size and configuration considered for building efficiency and perspective tenant use. Market Feasibility Analysis Assessment of sustainability and LEED rating options and opportunities. Example: 2nd & Pike Urban infill Access to transit Walkability (Walk Score) Previously developed Avoidance of sensitive environmental areas Energy Star Portfolio Manager LEED Checklist Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 11

12 Financial Feasibility Financial Feasibility Analysis Provides the Lender Creditable Pro Forma to Stabilized Occupancy Creditable Project Development Cost Analysis. (As provided in handout ) Sufficient Equity Availability Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 12

13 The Pro Forma Report A Forecast A future representation of the current APOD Annual Property Operating Data Often referred to as the stabilized operating statement Should be limited to a two year vision Recognizes future market conditions and other issues related to operating income and expense An important tool in establishing value Pro Forma Terms Projected Gross Operating Income (PGI) Vacancy/Collection Factor Effective Gross Income (EGI) Projected Operating Expenses Projected Net Income Before Debt Service (NIBDS) Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 13

14 Accurate Pro Forma Statements of Income Lease Renewals Annual Escalators and Other Income Forecasting Future Income Physical-Functional Aspects Location-Market Aspects Budget and Strategic Planning (3 to 5 yr) Pro Forma vs. Operating Statement Pro Forma - Projected Income Stream at Stabilized Leasing Levels Operating Statement- A track record for previous year. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 14

15 Net Operating Income Potential Rental Income + Other Income (affected by vacancy) - Vacancy and Credit Losses = Effective Rental Income + Other Income (not affected by vacancy) = Gross Operating Income - Operating Expenses = Net Operating Income (NOI) Application of CAP Rate Formula (IRV) C = I/V V = I/C I = C x V Income = NOI Cap Rate = Desired Return Value = Estimated Building Value or Sale Price Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 15

16 Application of CAP Rate Formula (IRV) R = I/V I = RV V = I/R Project Development Budget (Handout) Return on Project Cost Rate of Return = NOI / Total Project Cost Capitalization Rate = Income / Value C = I / V Profit to Total Project Cost Range of 25% to 30% Profit to Total Sales Revenue (land sales) Range of 25% to 30% Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 16

17 Rent Measurements Usable Square Footage Rentable Square Footage Load Factor = R/U Rent Measurements Usable Square Footage Actual space you occupy from wall to wall. Excludes square footage: common areas of a building such as lobbies restrooms, stairwells, storage rooms, and shared hallways. For tenants leasing an entire floor or several floors, the usable square footage would include the hallways and restrooms exclusively serving their floor. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 17

18 Rent Measurements Rentable Square Footage Useable Square Footage plus common areas or shared space (excluding penetrations). Shared space All outside of your occupied space Benefit to tenant (lobbies, restrooms, hallways, etc). Tenant will pay for a portion of the shared space and thus monthly rent is always calculated on RSF. Rent Measurements Load Factor Load Factor or Core Factor or Efficiency Factor. Load Factor = Rentable / Useable. Inefficient buildings are R/U greater then Greater the factor, then more common area SF on the building. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 18

19 The Lender Underwrites & Prices the Loan Reviews and evaluates the developers package including: Developer s background and financial information. Market feasibility information. Financial feasibility information. Pro forma operating statement Project development budget Loan Ratios and Pricing Loan-to-Value (LTV) Interest Carry Ratio (IC) Debt Service Coverage Ratio Break-Even Ratio Principles of Commercial Real Estate Underwriting Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 19

20 Loan Ratios and Pricing Loan-to-Value (LTV) Quick indicator of the exposure or risk of the loan. The higher the LTV, the greater the exposure. Debt Service Coverage Ratio NOI before debt service / annual debt service, with the result expressed as a percentage or multiple. Higher the debt service coverage, the less risky the loan. Principles of Commercial Real Estate Underwriting Loan Ratios and Pricing Interest Carry Ratio (IC) net income before debt service / loan Amount. Indicates the maximum interest rate the project s cash flow would carry. Principles of Commercial Real Estate Underwriting Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 20

21 Loan Ratios and Pricing Break-Even Ratio Refers to income or lease-up level necessary to cover debt service and operating expenses of the project. (debt service + operating expenses) / gross income. The higher the break-even amount, the more risky the deal. Break-even can expressed as a dollar amount, which is the sum of debt service and operating expenses. Principles of Commercial Real Estate Underwriting Major Influences on Loan Ratios Positive Factors Rental rate increases Renewals or new leases at higher rentals (rising market) Negative Factors Reverse of above Poor management (reduced NOI) Tenant improvements not reserved (lower effective rent) Principles of Commercial Real Estate Underwriting Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 21

22 Sizing a Loan The lender determines how much money to lend on a commercial real estate development project based on 3 criteria: Loan to Value (LTV) Loan to Cost (LTC) Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSC or DSCR) After analyzing the project on each of 3 the criteria, the lender will give you the lowest of the 3 possible loan amounts. Remember, every lender is analyzing your deal on how the next lender will look at it. After all, the next lender is your current lender's take-out! Loan to Value Ratio (LTV) 'Loan' is the size of the loan you get from the bank. 'Value' is the value of the property AFTER it is completed and stabilized (market rents and market occupancy). In new construction or re-hab, this is a professional estimate typically provided by a 3rd party appraiser. Typically 65% - 85% LTV = Loan Amount/Value Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 22

23 Loan to Cost Ratio (LTC) 'Loan' is the size of the loan you get from the bank 'Cost' is the total cost of building and leasing the property. Cost includes: *Land (with land appreciation often included), *Soft costs (architects, engineers, lawyers, permits, 'interest reserve' (you borrow the interest you pay the lender from the lender), *Hard costs' (digging the hole, erecting the building, all the sticks & bricks...) Typically 85-90% LTC = Loan Amount / Total Costs Debt Service Coverage Ratio ('DSC' -or 'DSCR') DSCR of a building is easiest to understand as the amount of excess cash generated by a building above what is required in loan payments, calculated as a ratio to that debt service payment. DSCR = Annual Net Operating Income / Annual Debt Service If a building generates $120,000/yr in NOI and its debt service is $100,000/yr, then the DSCR = ($120,000) I ($100,000) = 1.2 Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 23

24 DSC or DSCR Typically, you know 2 of the 3 pieces of the DSCR formula: You know what the lender requires DSCR to be - perhaps 1.2x or 1.3x. (Another way it is stated is "1.2 : 1.0" or "1.3 : 1.0') You know what NOI the building produces. Then solve for how much you can spend on debt payments ("debt service") (DEBT SERVICE) = (NOI) / (DSCR) Based on interest rates and amortization, you can then calculate how much you can borrow for that amount of debt service dollars available. Sizing a Loan (How big a loan you can get...) A lender will size a loan as the LOWEST of the 3 ratios described before: LTV = 65% 85% LTC = 85% 90% DSCR = 1.15x 1.35X Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 24

25 Example of Loan Sizing An investor is considering purchasing a poorly performing office building and attempting to turn it around. An appraiser has given the building a value of $4,000,000 once the building has been re-tenanted and is stabilized. The investor believes that his total costs will be $3,750,000. The building, once stabilized, will generate an NOI of $240,000. How much will a construction lender lend our investor? In the current capital markets, our investor can borrow interest only money at 5.5% The lender's size constraints are the lesser of 80% LTV, 90% LTC, or a 1.25x DSCR. Example of Loan Sizing (con't) How much can our investor borrow? Use the 3 approaches to sizing a loan. 80% LTV = $4,000,000 * 0.8 = $3,200,000 loan 90% LTC = $3,750,000 * 0.9 = $3,150,000 loan DSCR = $240,000 NOI /1.25 x DSCR = $192,000 At 5.5% interest only, $192,000 would pay for ($192,000/.055) = $3,490,909 loan balance. I = PRT P = I / RT I / RT = P THEREFORE: THE LENDER WILL LEND YOU THE LEAST OF THE 3 APPROACHES, WHICH IS THE LTC APPROACH or $3,150,000. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 25

26 Example of Loan Sizing (con't) How much can our investor borrow? Use the 3 approaches to sizing a loan. 80% LTV = $4,000,000 * 0.8 = $3,200,000 loan 90% LTC = $3,750,000 * 0.9 = $3,150,000 loan DSCR = $240,000 NOI /1.25 x DSCR = $192,000 At 6.5% interest only, $192,000 would pay for ($192,000/.065) = $2,953,846 loan balance. I = PRT P = I / RT I / RT = P THEREFORE: THE LENDER WILL LEND YOU THE LEAST OF THE 3 APPROACHES, WHICH IS THE DSCR APPROACH or $2,953,846. Sources of Money A bank lends on financial returns only. Being 'green' has to have a $$ impact to affect a lender or your loan size. Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 26

27 What being 'Green' might get you: The Good Grant money (equity) Preferential tax treatment (pay less in taxes, keep more of your revenues. Higher NOI) Higher rent Higher occupancy The Bad May have higher up-front construction costs May have higher maintenance costs Cash Flow Analysis examples see Supporting Documents in CANVAS Development Budget Construction and Proforma Development Budget Example, includes important definitions Development Budget Template Mark Potter & Cate O dahl 27