Q BUSINESS ACTIVITY AND REVENUE WEBCAST 25 APRIL 2018

Transcription

1 BUSINESS ACTIVITY AND REVENUE WEBCAST 25 APRIL 2018

2 DISCLAIMER The information contained in this document has not been independently verified. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of the Company, its shareholders, its advisors or representatives nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation or solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities, and this shall not form the basis for or be used for any such offer or invitation or other contract or engagement in any jurisdiction. The information, assumptions and estimates that were used to determine these objectives are subject to modification due to economic, financial and competitive uncertainties. Furthermore, it is possible that some of the risks described in section 2 in the Document de Référence, filed with the AMF under number D on 5 april 2018, could have an impact on the company s ability to achieve these objectives. Accordingly, the Company cannot give any assurance as to whether it will achieve the objectives described, and makes no commitment or undertaking to update or otherwise revise this information. No assurance is given as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained in this document. PAGE 2

3 KEY FIGURES (1) FINANCIALS 2018 GUIDANCE (2) > Revenue: > Backlog: 688m 4.0bn +4% vs Q % vs 2017 Revenue and EBITDA: growth by about ~10% New home reservations in France: continued market growth in Nexity s market share in a French market for new homes that should see slight contraction while remaining at a high level (120,000/125,000 reservations expected in 2018) Commercial real estate order intake: 400m INDIVIDUAL CLIENTS COMMERCIAL CLIENTS > Revenue: > New home reservations in France: > Services to Individuals, units under management: 603m +3.2% in volume -0.2% +7% vs Q % in value 887,000 units > Revenue: > Order intake: > Services to companies, surface under management: 85m 12m -0.5% vs 2017 vs % vs Q million sq.m > Business potential: +4% 49,581 units LOCAL AUTHORITY CLIENTS vs 2017 > Business potential: 2.4bn +54% vs 2017 > Villes & Projets portfolio: -1.5% vs 2017 ~580,000 sq.m (1) According to IFRS with joint ventures proportionately consolidated After new segmentation and application of new reporting standards (2) Guidance announced on 20 February 2018 PAGE 3

4 1. MARKETS AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY

5 Mar ROBUST MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT MONTHLY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY SYNTHETIC INDEX (data corrected for seasonal variations) MORTGAGE RATES (all markets, excl. insurance, last month of the quarter, average) 5.07% Average: % % 0.80% 1.48% 0.82% taux de crédit immobilier TEC 10 (taux moyen sur la période) Source: INSEE Sources: Observatoire Crédit Logement et Finance Active HOUSEHOLDS SOLVENCY SYNTHETIC INDEX (base 100 In 2001 whole market) BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SYNTHETIC INDEX (in France, all sectors) Average: Average: Source: Observatoire Crédit Logement Source: INSEE Informations rapides du 22 février 2018 PAGE 5

6 Feb. 16 Feb. 17 Feb. 18 Feb. 16 Feb. 17 Feb. 18 FRENCH RESIDENTIAL MARKET BUILDING PERMITS (in number of units, 12 months rolling) HOUSING STARTS (in number of units, 12 months rolling) +8.0% +12.5% 467, , , ,300 Source: Commissariat Général au Développement Durable (CGDD) PAGE 6

7 NEW HOME RESERVATION MARKET IN FRANCE (DEVELOPERS) DEVELOPERS NEW HOME RESERVATIONS (in units) +26% +2% 122, ,700 Average : 103, , , , ,000 28% 75, , ,000 99,100 84,200 85,300 83, ,400 44% 44% 32% 42% 42% 39% 13% 14% e* A, Abis zones B1 zones B2, C zones * Nexity s estimation for 2018 Supply-constrained areas Sources: Commissariat Général au Développement Durable (Sit@del2 basis) - New figures following the 2017 recast of the Enquête sur la commercialisation des logements neufs (ECLN, a French survey of new home sales) now called ECLN2 published in May 2017 PAGE 7

8 FRANCE S 2018 HOUSING BILL (ELAN) MAIN PROPOSALS Help free up land public land in particular and revitalise urban planning projects to produce more buildable land > Urban planning partnership project (PPA) > Major urban planning projects (GOU): tool for the operational implementation of a PPA Building permits > Appeals processing time shortened to 10 months, compared with an average 18 to 24 months today Switch from accessible to adaptable housing > Only 10% of apartment blocks accessible to people with disabilities; other types of homes should be adaptable Simplified process to transform offices into homes > Bonus building permission of 10% (additional buildable area) > Possible exemption from local zoning plan (PLU) > New medium-height building category (38 to 50 metres high) Reform of the social housing sector > Requirement for social housing operators with fewer than 15,000 homes to join a social housing body within 3 years > Simplified selling process for social housing: target of 40,000 sales per year, with each home sold financing the construction of 2 to 3 new homes > Social housing operators more free to set rent > Standardisation of the ratings system attributing points to housing candidates Rent control > Possible extension of the system for cities in supply-constrained areas Job mobility lease refocused on employment target > 1 to 10 months, non-renewable No security deposit for the tenant and Visale guarantee to cover any unpaid rent or fees Improve living conditions > Doubled amount allocated to the new national programme for urban renovation (NPNRU) > Energy efficiency renovation in social housing by 2022 > Further digitisation of the housing sector and faster integration of smart homes > Measures against substandard housing Tourist rentals > Stricter controls and penalties (new 120-day legal limit on renting out one s main residence for tourism purposes) > Bill reviewed by French MPs starting late May 2018, with the aim of passing it this summer PAGE 8

9 NEXITY NEW HOME RESERVATIONS VOLUME (in units, including E.Denis and Primosud from 2017) VALUE (in m, incl. VAT, including E.Denis and Primosud from 2017) 14 2, , , , % 4,022 3, ,506 3,618 10,365 Subdivision +3% International New homes % , % Q Q Q Q Q Q * > New home reservations in France are up 3% in volume and 9% in value (including VAT) > Subdivision reservations are down 29% in volume and 21% in value due to the gradual elimination of the PTZ scheme in non supplyconstained areas > Positive pricing impact: increase in average selling price for private clients (+6.5%) largely due to a better product and geographic mix * The impact of the increase in VAT on social housing from 5.5% to 10% on reservations signed before 31 December 2017 at the previous lower rate is not included in the amount of reservations for. No reservations by professional landlords were withdrawn following this VAT increase. Backlog, which represents future revenue, is expressed exclusive of tax PAGE 9

10 NEXITY RESERVATIONS: QUARTERLY CHANGE NEW HOME RESERVATIONS IN FRANCE (in units, including E.Denis and Primosud from 2017) +3% 5,736 3,506 4,821 4,288 3,618 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q PAGE 10

11 KEY CLIENT SEGMENTS PERFORMANCE VOLUME (in units, including E.Denis and Primosud from 2017) 3,506 +3% 3,618 2,947 27% +11% 29% Professional landlords (o/w 65% social Landlords) 25% 45% 46% -4% 43% Individual investors (o/w 65% Pinel) 8% 7% 21% -31% 22% +20% 5% 24% Other home buyers First-time buyers Q Q > Investors benefiting from Pinel scheme represented around 28% of reservations > Increase in professional landlords reservations: +11% (1,042 units vs 938 in Q1 2017), decrease in social housing (-29%) more than compensated by non-social housing reservations PAGE 11

12 NEXITY RESERVATIONS IN FRANCE BY AREA VOLUME (in units, including E.Denis and Primosud from 2017) VALUE (in m, incl. VAT, including E.Denis and Primosud from 2017) 3, % 3, % 715 2,947 36% 39% +19% 45% Paris region % 45% +24% 51% 64% 61% 55% Rest of France 56% 55% -7% -3% 49% Q Q Q Q > Private clients reservations in (excluding bulk sales): +12% in Paris region, -6% for the rest of France, non supplyconstrained areas, especially B2 zone, have suffered from the Pinel scheme elimination > Bulk sales: +31% in Paris region, -10% for the rest of France PAGE 12

13 NEXITY NEW HOMES: PRICE TRENDS AVERAGE PRICE (in thousand of euros, excl. Iselection, PERL, International, and bulk sales) Paris region: +7.8% Paris region excl. Paris: +8.3% France: +6.5% Rest of France: +2.6% Q Q RETAIL SALES Q Change Average home price incl. VAT per sq.m. 3,816 3, % Average surface area per home (sq.m.) % Average price incl. VAT per home ( k) % PAGE 13

14 NEXITY NEW HOMES: SUPPLY FOR SALE in units, excl. International and bulk sales, and incl. Iselection and PERL from 2015, E. Denis and Primosud from % 6,988 2% 52% 46% 3,663 3,542 4,202 4,293 5,058 5,313 6,438 6,773 6,650 3% 31% 66% 8,651 2% 28% 70% 8,135 2% 27% 71% Q New homes in project phase New homes under construction Completed new homes > Average marketing period*: 5.3 months in (vs 5.7 months in 2017) * Supply for sale divided by the number of new home reservations in France, 12 months rolling PAGE 14

15 BUSINESS POTENTIAL* FOR NEW HOMES in units, excl. International and incl. Iselection, PERL and Villes & Projets from 2015, E. Denis and Primosud from YEARS OF ACTIVITY +4% 47,560 49,581 41,813 42,474 34,453 46% 43% 22,824 28% 19,057 21,285 23,143 23,941 24,832 23,100 54% 57% 72% Q Paris region Rest of France * Includes the Group s current supply for sale, its future supply corresponding to project phases not yet marketed on acquired land, and projects not yet launched associated with land secured through options PAGE 15

16 REAL ESTATE SERVICES TO INDIVIDUALS PROPERTY MANAGEMENT AND SERVICED RESIDENCES PROPERTY MANAGEMENT FOR INDIVIDUALS (PMI) Units under management (in thousands) STUDÉA (student residences in France) Condominium management Rental management %* * churn rate on a like-for-like basis: -0.2% (-1.1% at end 2017) 124 residences at 31 March ,300 units managed at 31 March % average occupancy rate over the period vs 94.3% in Q FRANCHISES > Change in number of agencies: 1, , % 1, > 16,050 provisional sales aggreement signed by franchised agencies at 31 March 2018 (vs 15,631 at 31 March 2017) DISTRIBUTION ACTIVITIES Under the iselection and PERL brands (in units) 1, Q % 4, , iselection PERL > Including 460 reservations intermediated on behalf of third-party real estate developers or through division of ownership of existing properties PAGE 16

17 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS TAKE-UP IN PARIS REGION (in millions of sq.m.) % > Available office spaces: < 3.2 million sq.m in April 2018 > Vacancy rate: 5.5% FRENCH COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS (in billions of euros) > Offices off-plan sales: 2.8 bn in, in line with Q Sources: CBRE Marketview Investments France and Paris region offices PAGE 17

18 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE NEW ORDER INTAKE AND BACKLOG ORDER INTAKE (in m) BACKLOG (in m) % Average : Paris region Rest of France Target 31 Dec. 17* revenue Additional order intake works and other adjustments 31 Mar. 18 > 12m order intake during, of which 5m in the rest of France > Backlog is equivalent to 15 months revenue from development activities (revenue basis, 12 months rolling period) * Restated from new standard IFRS 15 PAGE 18

19 BUSINESS POTENTIAL* FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE AT 31 DECEMBER 2017 (in m) AT 31 MARCH 2018 (in m) 3.9 YEARS OF ACTIVITY 7.0 YEARS OF ACTIVITY 811 (52%) 1,551m 739 (48%) +54% 830 (35%) 2,395m 1,565 (65%) Paris region Rest of France > Significant land options signed in * Corresponds to the total volume of potential business at any given moment, expressed as estimated revenue excluding VAT, within future projects identified and validated by the Group s Commitments Committee, in all structuring phases, including the programmes of the Group s urban regeneration business (Villes & Projets). This business potential includes the Group s current supply for sale (on purchased land or land secured under options) as well as its future supply (mainly on land secured under options) PAGE 19

20 2. REVENUE

21 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE* (in m) +4.1% Commercial Clients: 85m -12% Individual Clients: 603m % Q Residential Real Estate Real Estate Services to inidividuals Commercial Real Estate Real Estate Services to companies Other activities Residential Real Estate Real Estate Services to Individuals Commercial Real Estate Real Estate Services to Companies Other activities > Revenue up 4% vs Q > Increase in Residential Real Estate revenue (+15%) is due to the strong growth in the division s backlog, including that of Edouard Denis, observed over the past several years, and the revenue related to the delivery of a project in Milan (Italy) > Decrease in Commercial Real Estate revenue largely due to adverse weather conditions that had hampered progress at construction sites > Revenue growth acceleration expected over the next quarters * According to IFRS with joint ventures proportionately consolidated After new segmentation and application of new reporting standards PAGE 21

22 NEW REPORTING STANDARDS AND NEW SEGMENTATION REVENUE BY CLIENT Segmentation impact IFRS 15 Impact +4.1% Individual Clients 1 Residential Services Q published Commercial Other activities Commercial 86 Clients Residential Real Estate Real Estate Services to Individuals Commercial Real Estate Real Estate Services to Companies Q New Q restated segmentation New standards and new segmentation 15 Other activities * According to IFRS with joint ventures proportionately consolidated After new segmentation and application of new reporting standards PAGE 22

23 3. OUTLOOK

24 RESERVATIONS AND REVENUE SEASONALITY (2017 BASED) NEW HOME RESERVATIONS IN FRANCE (in % of total annual reservations) 19% 23% 26% 31% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 GROUP CONSOLIDATED REVENUE (in % of total annual revenue) Published revenue Revenue restated from IFRS 15 36% 38% 19% 23% 22% 19% 21% 23% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 PAGE 24

25 NEXITY BACKLOG (1) AT 31 MARCH 2018 in m, excl. VAT, incl. Iselection, PERL, International, Edouard Denis and Primosud 18 MONTHS REVENUE FROM DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES 3, ,355 3,283 3, , ,092 4,754 +1% 562 3,991 4, , ,702 2,869 2,834 2,806 3,464 3,631 3,103 4,191 3,526 3,634 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar published Mar restated (2) Dec published Dec restated (2) Mar (2) Residential Real Estate Commercial Real Estate (1) Corresponds to the Group s order backlog in terms of forecast revenue and number of months of development activities According to IFRS with joint ventures proportionately consolidated (2) After new segmentation and application of new reporting standards PAGE 25

26 2018 OUTLOOK (1) FINANCIAL RESULTS Revenue and EBITDA (2) expected to grow by about 10% Dividend per share increase (3) 2,50 payable in 2018 (4) At least 2,50 payable in 2019 INDIVIDUAL CLIENTS New home reservations in France: Continued growth in Nexity s market share in a French market for new homes that should see slight contraction while remaining at a high level (120,000/125,000 reservations expected in 2018) COMMERCIAL CLIENTS Commercial Real Estate order intake: 400 million (1) Financial data and indicators based on Nexity s operational reporting, with joint ventures proportionately consolidated and take into account the two new reporting standards, IFRS 15, mandatory as of 1 January 2018, and IFRS 16, mandatory as of 1 January 2019 and which the Group will apply starting 1 January 2018 (2) EBITDA is the current operating profit before depreciation, amortisation and impairment of fixed assets (including lease payments restated under IFRS 16), net changes in provisions, share-based payment expenses and the transfer from inventory of borrowing costs directly attributable to property developments, plus dividends received from equity-accounted investees whose operations are an extension of the Group s business. This guidance corresponds to a level of about 485 million that should be compared to 448 million in 2017 restated under the two new reporting standards, IFRS 15 and IFRS 16 (3) Compared with a dividend of 2,40 per share paid in 2017 Pending the decision of Nexity s Board of Directors and approval at the Shareholders Meeting (4) i.e. 75% payout ratio PAGE 26

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