Research. Buenos Aires Becomes More Attractive BUENOS AIRES 1Q15 OFFICE MARKET. Current Conditions
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1 Buenos Aires Becomes More Attractive Vacancy Rate and Average Asking Rent Remain Stable Buenos Aires remains Argentina s largest office market with nearly 18.2 million square feet of total stock and 11.4 million square feet of lettable area, Class A buildings in the first quarter of 215. The market has still not fully recovered from the recession: Vacancy in the first quarter was stable at 8.1%, while the average asking rent was $28.22/SF, one of the lowest in South America (below Rio de Janeiro, Bogota, Mexico City and Caracas). Moreover, the market recorded 368,125 square feet of total absorption in 214, which is approximately 5% of the average absorption of the last 2 years. With the risk of a devaluation of the peso and the economic uncertainty due to this year s elections both negatively impacting the market, no large companies have announced expansion plans for next quarter. No large new leases were signed in the first quarter, yet available inventory continues to grow. Whereas only 914,931 square feet was incorporated in 214, a total of 3.9 million square feet of construction is planned for the next three years, one of the highest amounts since 1967, with an average of 645,834 square feet each year. New Buenos Aires Submarkets The Buenos Aires office market is undergoing changes. New submarkets in the northern area of the city and the suburbs are competing, in terms of stock and prices, with the traditional market in central areas. Also, development is now underway in new areas that were not taken into account until recently. Current Conditions Class A office market vacancy rate for 1Q 215 is 8.12%, reaching a value 1% lower than the previous quarter. 3,892,667 is the amount of SF under construction. Buenos Aires average asking rent for available space represents one of the lowest in the region. Average Class A office rent remains in same value than the previous quarter. Market Analysis Asking Rent vs. Vacancy $35 $28 $21 $14 $7 $ Net Absorption 6, 4, 2, 213 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Ave. Asking Rent (U$/SF/Annum) Vacancy (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2, -4, 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Net Absorption (SF) New Inventory (SF) Argentina Capital City Buenos Aires Population 41,45, PIB Nominal MM (213) U$D 69,889 PIB Nominal Per Capita (214) U$D 12,521 Currency Peso Unemployment Rate 7,5% Market Summary Current Quarter Prior Quarter Year Ago Period Forecast Total Inventory (SF) 11,4MM 13,8MM 1,1MM Vacancy (%) 8.12% 9.1% 9.3% Net Absorption (SF) - 358,976-12,257-26,99 Average Asking Rent $28.22 $28.76 $28.42 Under Construction (SF) 3,892,667 1,786,742 2,976,218 =
2 Microcentro Catalinas Retiro Puerto Madero 9 de Julio South Area Midtown Panamericana Libertador Research One such area, Palermo, was an exclusively residential district until a couple of years ago, and is now home to Class B offices tenanted by tech companies and broadcasting firms. In addition, old industrial buildings in Barracas and the South Area are being converted into Class B offices for back office operations and the Parque Patricios technology district. CABA Submarkets: Vacancy Rate - Asking Rent The submarket with the highest vacancy was 9 de Julio Avenue, which took on new office space after construction was completed of the Belgrano 955, Altman and Go Green Eco office buildings in 214 and 215. The development of new areas with better infrastructure has made the historical urban centers a secondary option for companies that must choose where to settle. Vacancy is expected to grow slightly next quarter. North Area Submarkets: Vacancy Rate - Asking Rent North Area Submarkets: Vacancy Rate - Asking Rent Class A 4,, 3,2, 2,4, 1,6, 8, Total Inventory (SF) Vacancy (%) Rent (U$ / SF / Annum) Argentina (Class A) Vacancy Rate Composition (Class A) $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Rent (U$ / SF / Annum) Vacancy (%) 3% 24% 18% 12% 6% % 1.7% 2.6% 3.6% 1.6% 19.7% 3.6% 31.2% 9 de Julio Puerto Madero Catalinas - Retiro Panamericana Libertador Midtown Microcentro South Area
3 Submarket Statistics By Submarket Total Under Total Qtr YTD Direct Sublet Total Inventory Construction Vacancy Absorption Absorption Asking Rent Asking Rent Asking Rent (SF) (SF) Rate (SF) (SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) CABA Microcentro 795,53 344, % $25.64 N/A $25.64 Catalinas-Retiro 3,614,517 1,682, % $31.21 N/A $31.21 Puerto Madero 3,167, , % $26.75 N/A $ de Julio 81,523 79, % - 25,691-25,691 $26.75 N/A $26.75 South Area 515,354 58,766 % $25.64 N/A $25.64 Midtown 56,193 18, % - 23,25-23,25 $27.87 N/A $27.87 GBA Libertador Corridor 775, , % - 6,458-6,458 $28.98 N/A $28.98 Panamericana Corridor 1,319,363 35, % - 78,576-78,576 $26.75 N/A $26.75 By Class Class A 11,494,962 3,892, % - 358, ,976 $28.22 N/A $28.22 Class B 14,262, , % N/A N/A $14.49 N/A $14.49 Under Construction Submarket Class Total Area Rentable Area Date (SF) (SF) Torre IRSA Catalinas-Retiro A , Go Green 9 de Julio A 79,652 75,347 1Q15 Madero Riverside Puerto Madero A 297,83 177,64 3Q16 Al Rio Libertador Corridor A 435, , Nodus II Panamericana Corridor A ND 131, Tesla II South Area A 69,965 52, Officia Pilar I Panamericana Corridor A 17,639 43,55 1Q17 3
4 Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q U$/SF Research Economic Conditions PIB The presidential election will take place in October, leaving the current economic environment to speculation and uncertainty. According to the World Bank, Argentina s economy shrank by 1.5% in 214 and will shrink by another.3% in 215. Inflation is also expected by many private consultants to fall, yet remain high overall. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable, whereas the exchange rate will remain affected by devaluations administered by the government until the end of the year. 9% 5% 1% -3% -7% -11% * Vacancy and asking rents in the Buenos Aires office market will remain stable into the new year, with slight variations particular to each submarket. Market activity has continued in all segments. Land and office prices have remained stable because of companies and individuals that find refuge in real estate investment value. Source: Banco Mundial *PiB 215 = 1,, Cepal Construction Cost Evolution Price/SF of Class A Office Construction Source: Contract Workplaces Unemployment Rate 2% 16% 12% 8% 4% Exchange Rate - CPI $ 1 $ 8 $ 6 $ 4 $ 2 % -5 $ * CPI (%). Exchange Rate BNA (AR$) Source: EPH - Indec *Forecast * INDEC Source Calculated through the price for the consumer geometrical average calculated by statistical institutes Source: Banco de la Nacion Argentina, INDEC
5 The Rest of Latin- America Asking Rent vs. Vacancy in Latin-America Countries Class A Buenos Aires has one of the smallest office markets in Latin America. To reach the Latin-American average, the local market has to grow another 49.%; that is why growing opportunities remain. Although square feet are still being incorporated into inventory, vacancy remains at low values. $ 5 $ 4 $ 3 2% 16% 12% Buenos Aires has one of the lowest average asking rents in the region; only Lima s, Santiago s and Mexico City s are lower. This means that Argentina has one of the lowest market costs, an average asking rent of $28.22/SF, which creates opportunities for investors positioned to take advantage of new opportunities. Although it will remain among the lowest in the region, asking rent will be consolidated when the economy strengthens, perhaps during the last months of 215 or the first quarter of 216. $ 2 $ 1 $ Rio de Janeiro Bogota Sao Paulo Mexico City Santiago Buenos Aires Lima Rent (U$ / SF / Annum) Vacancy (%) 8% 4% % Source: Newmark Grubb 214 Office Inventory by 1, habitants Total MM SF/, Habitants Average Asking Rent in Latin-America Countries Class A 5, 4,5 4,349 Rio de Janeiro - Brazil $ , Bogota - Colombia $ ,5 3, Sao Paulo - Brazil $ ,5 2, 2,325 2,77 1,819 Average Mexico City - Mexico $ ,5 1, 1,356 49% 969 1,12 Santiago - Chile Buenos Aires - Argentina $25.5 $ Rio de Janeiro Bogota Sao Paulo Mexico City Santiago Buenos Aires Lima Lima - Peru $23.51 $ $2 $4 $6 Rent (U$ / SF / Annum) Source: Newmark Grubb 214 5
6 Newmark Grubb Bacre HEADQUARTERS 1515 Olazabal St, Suite C23 CABA 1428, Argentina Domingo Speranza Founder and President Newmark Grubb BACRE Melina Szienberg Researcher Newmark Grubb BACRE Glossary of Terms Absorption A measure of the change in occupied space Availability Space marketed for lease regardless of when the space will be available or whether the space is vacant or occupied Deliveries The total RBA of properties added to the inventory once construction has been completed Direct Space Available space offered for lease by the building owner, landlord, or owner representative Leasing Activity The volume of leases signed including new leases, direct and sublet leases, extensions and renewals, and leases signed in proposed or under construction buildings Occupancy Any space physically occupied by a tenant, regardless of lease status of the space Rentable Building Area (RBA) A measurement of the total square feet in a building including the tenant and common areas such as the lobby and hallways Sublet Space Available space offered for lease by a building tenant seeking a subtenant to fulfill the remaining lease obligation Under Construction Buildings under construction are defined by the time the foundation is poured through the time the building is certified for occupancy Vacancy Space not physically occupied by a tenant, regardless of the lease status or availability of space Weighted Average Rent The asking dollar amount for the use of available space, weighted by size--the average does not include negotiable or unpublished rates and is reported as full service including operating costs Office inventory includes all multi-tenant and single tenant buildings at least 2, square feet in total rentable building area. Owner occupied buildings are not included in the inventory. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NGKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains.
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