The MarketPulse JANUARY The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1

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1 The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 The MarketPulse JANUARY 2018 i

2 Table of Contents The MarketPulse January 2018 Volume 7, Issue 1 The MarketPulse Volume 7, Issue 1 January 2018 Data as of November 2017 (unless otherwise stated) Housing Statistics November 2017 HPI YOY Chg 7.0% HPI YOY Chg XD 6.2% NegEq Share (Q3 2017) 6.3% Cash Sales Share (as of January 2017) 36.5% Table of Contents New Home Sales Continue Steady Rise...1 Metro Areas in the South Led Nation in 2017 Sales More Than A High Appraisal... 2 Homes Appraised Above Contract Price Had Above-Market Appreciation Rates Bidding War is On, But for How Long?... 3 A Third of Homes Sold For the List Price or More in September 2017 Distressed Sales (as of January 2017) 7.0% Homebuyers Typical Mortgage Payment Up 12 Percent Year Over Year... 4 Forecasts Suggest a Nearly 13 Percent Gain Over the Next Year In the News Largest CBSA Loan Performance Insights Report October Home Price Index State-Level Detail Combined Single Family Including Distressed November Home Price Index... 8 Overview of Loan Performance... 8 CoreLogic HPI Market Condition Overview... 9 November 2017 November 2022 Forecast Variable Descriptions...10 News Media Contact Alyson Austin alaustin@corelogic.com (office) ii

3 The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 Articles New Home Sales Continue Steady Rise Metro Areas in the South Led Nation in 2017 Sales By Frank E. Nothaft Sales of newly built homes have had a slow, steady recovery during the last several years, and the final quarter of 2017 was on pace to have the highest number of sales in a decade (Figure 1). It s no wonder that homebuilders sentiment was so rosy at year-end. According to the latest National Housing Market Index, homebuilder confidence in December was the highest in 18 years, and the traffic of prospective buyers was the most since At CoreLogic we use public records data to examine which markets have had the most home building activity over the past year. We found that metro areas in the South led the nation in new homes sold (Figure 2). Four of the seven metro areas with the largest number of new home sales were in Texas: Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio. And Phoenix, Atlanta and Charlotte were the other three. What these metro areas have in common is a strong local economy, land availability, and less land-use restrictions. Noticeably absent from the top metro list are the major cities along the Pacific coast: Limited land and regulatory red tape have constrained new supply, thus adding to the rapid home-price growth in these markets. The increase in new home sales has been supported by household income growth, rising consumer confidence, and access to low-rate mortgages. During 2017, about twothirds of mortgage-financed new home sales used a conventional loan, either conforming or jumbo, and one-third used FHA or VA loans (Figure 3). The type of loan used for financing varied greatly with the price of the home. For homes that sold for $250,000 or less, one-half of the loans were FHA or VA, products often used by first-time buyers. In contrast, homes that sold for more than $1 million nearly always were financed by a jumbo loan. FIGURE 1. NEW HOME SALES: 2017 MOST SINCE 2008 U.S. New Home Sales (thousands) Continued on page 5 Dr. Frank Nothaft Executive, Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Economist Frank Nothaft holds the title executive, chief economist for CoreLogic. He leads the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analysis, commentary and forecasting trends in global real estate, insurance and mortgage markets. 1 See National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index at 550K 2017 Annualized Real Estate Analytics Suite, MarketTrends (2017 annualized). FIGURE 2. NEW-HOME SALES LEVELS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH Monthly Number of New Home Sales (Average) Houston TX Dallas TX Phoenix AZ Atlanta GA Austin TX Charlotte NC San Antonio TX Orlando FL Tampa FL Las Vegas NV Denver CO Washington DC Nashville TN Fort Worth TX New York NY Riverside CA Raleigh NC Jacksonville FL ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500, average monthly new homes sold October 2016 to September 2017; top 100 CBSAs based on new and existing home sales. 1

4 Articles The MarketPulse January 2018 Volume 7, Issue 1 More Than A High Appraisal Homes Appraised Above Contract Price Had Above-Market Appreciation Rates By Yanling Mayer For homebuyers, the outcome of appraisal is one of these three scenarios: (1) appraised value closely matches sales price, (2) appraisal falls short of sales price or (3) appraisal is higher than sales price. If a home sells for less than its appraised value, does that mean that the buyers got a bargain, and should anticipate above-average appreciation during their ownership period? Conversely, if a home sells for more than its appraised value, does that mean the buyers may have overpaid, and could expect a below-market rate of price growth during the length of time they own the home? Evidence seems to support the hypothesis that there is money left on the table in high-appraisal transactions. When property price appreciation was calculated for twice turned-over homes in the California market FIGURE 1. ANNUALIZED EXCESS PROPERTY APPRECIATION, BY VALUATION OUTCOME Appraisal Valuation Outcome Excess Property Appreciation Upon Re-sale Ownership Duration (months) # of Repeat Sale Pairs High-appraisal homes 3.32% 40 3,503 Low-appraisal homes (0.26%) 42 2,651 Closely appraised homes (0.03%) 40 26,663 Notes: 1. High-appraisal homes were those appraised at 3% or more above contract price, and low-appraisal homes 3% or more below contract price. Closely appraised homes included those with a less than +/- 1% difference between appraisal and contract price. 2. Only homes that were held for at least 18 months since initial purchase/appraisal were included in the analysis. 3. Compounded monthly. FIGURE 2. ANNUALIZED EXCESS PROPERTY APPRECIATION, BY INITIAL-PURCHASE PROPERTY TYPE* Appraisal Valuation Outcome Yanling Mayer Principal, Economist Yanling Mayer holds the title principal economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist, and conducts analysis of housing and mortgage markets. A financial economist by training, Yanling has more than 15 years of professional experience in economic and market research. Excess Property Appreciation Upon Re-sale Median Sale Price Non-Distressed Properties # of Repeat Sale Pairs High-appraisal homes 3.15% $300,000 2,754 Low-appraisal homes (0.57%) $300,000 2,246 first sale observed with a full appraisal and sales closing price in 2010 or later, and then a second time with a sale by the owner homes previously appraised with a sizable premium above the contract sales price were found to have above-market appreciation rates. As shown in Figure 1, excess rates of price appreciation averaged about 3.3 percent per year. By comparison, closely appraised homes appreciated at about the market average, while homes with appraised value below their contract sales price appreciated 0.3 percent per year slower than the market. Excess appreciation rates were annualized price gains at re-sale annualized percentage difference between prior purchase price and subsequent re-sale price, in excess of average market appreciation during the same ownership period. The CoreLogic countylevel Home Price Index (HPI) was used as the benchmark of market-wide appreciation. Figure 2 shows that high-appraisal homes whether a distressed sale or not had above-market price appreciation, averaging 3.15 percent among non-distressed sales or 3.9 percent among distressed sales. Real estate owned (REO) and short sales exhibited above-market appreciation rates across all three appraisal valuation outcomes, likely driven by their belowmarket pricing to motivate sales. Investors value-enhancing repair and refurbishing work could also be a factor for their higher re-sale values despite that only homes that were held for at least 18 months since initial purchase/appraisal were included in the analysis. For both non-distressed and Con nued on page 6 Closely appraised homes (0.17%) $408,000 23,478 REO and Short Sale Properties High-appraisal homes 3.90% $205, Low-appraisal homes 1.62% $201, Closely appraised homes 2.00% $243,000 3,185 * The distressed and non-distressed classifications are based on a property's status when it was intitally purchased and appraised. 2

5 The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 Articles Bidding War is On, But for How Long? A Third of Homes Sold For the List Price or More in September 2017 By Shu Chen Ten years after the financial crisis, home price indexes and home sales are returning to pre-crisis levels. In some areas, prices and sales have reached new highs. With demand strong and inventory thin, a greater share of homes have sold this year at or above their listing price. Figure 1 shows the share of homes that sold at a price above, equal to or below the list price. 1 This September the share of homes selling above list price had recovered to early 2004 levels. The share selling above list price was almost three times the trough in January 2008 and represented more than one-fifth of total sales. Housing markets are different across the nation. Sales and listing patterns vary geographically. Figure 2 shows the share of homes that sold at, above, or below their list prices in 16 Core Based Statistical Areas during September San Francisco had the largest share of homes 76 percent that sold for at least the list price, and Seattle and Los Angeles followed with 63 and 51 percent, respectively. Miami had the lowest share 16 percent of homes selling at or above the list price in September Shu Chen Principal, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist Shu Chen holds the title principal, economist for the CoreLogic information solutions group. In this role, she is part of the Office of the Chief Economist working with senior economists to provide insights for the Home Price Index, foreclosure reports and she regularly performs analysis of the home value equity report. 1 Figures 1 use 66 CBSAs to aggregate national level statistics. The inventory has not been adjusted for growth in the number of households over time. As the number of households increases over time, the equivalent level of inventory should rise as well. FIGURE 1. SHARE OF SALES AT, ABOVE OR BELOW THE LIST PRICE 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 sold price = list price sold price > list price sold price < list price MLS September 2017 FIGURE 2. SHARE OF SALES AT, ABOVE OR BELOW LIST PRICE BY CBSA 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% San Francisco, CA Seattle, WA Los Angeles, CA Denver, CO Honolulu, HI Minneapolis, MN Las Vegas, NV Dallas, TX San Diego, CA Philadelphia, PA Detroit, MI Atlanta, GA Orlando, FL Chicago, IL sold price = list price sold price > list price sold price < list price Houston, TX Miami, FL MLS September

6 Articles The MarketPulse January 2018 Volume 7, Issue 1 Homebuyers Typical Mortgage Payment Up 12 Percent Year Over Year Forecasts Suggest a Nearly 13 Percent Gain Over the Next Year By Andrew LePage 1 Based on the average mortgage rate forecast from Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders and IHS Markit. NATIONAL HOMEBUYERS TYPICAL MORTGAGE PAYMENT Inflation-Adjusted Monthly Mortgage Payment That Buyers Commit To $1,400 $1,200 Andrew LePage Research Analyst Andrew LePage joined CoreLogic in 2015 as a research analyst working in the Office of the Chief Economist. Previously, Andrew was an analyst and writer for DQNews, a partner of DataQuick (acquired by CoreLogic in 2014). Andrew provided real estate data and trend analysis to journalists and issued a variety of housing market reports to the news media on behalf of DataQuick. Prior to that he was a staff writer at the Sacramento Bee newspaper covering residential real estate topics in the capital region and across California. He continues to monitor California s housing market for CoreLogic in two monthly data briefs detailing trends in Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area. Jun-06: $1,259 U.S. home prices have risen more than 6 percent over the last year but that s only part of the challenge for home shoppers, who face mortgage payments that have risen about 12 percent year over year because of higher mortgage rates. One way to measure the impact of inflation, mortgage rates and home prices on affordability over time is to use what we call the typical mortgage payment. It s a mortgage-rate-adjusted monthly payment based on each month s U.S. median home sale price. It is calculated using Freddie Mac s average rate on a 30-year fixedrate mortgage with a 20 percent down payment. It does not include taxes or insurance. The typical mortgage payment is a good proxy for affordability because it shows the monthly amount that a borrower would have to qualify for in order to get a mortgage to buy the median-priced U.S. home. When adjusted for inflation, the typical mortgage payment also puts current payments in the proper historical context. The change in the typical mortgage payment over the past year illustrates how Oct-18: $891 it can be misleading to simply focus on the rise in home prices when assessing affordability. For example, in October 2017 the U.S. median sale price was 6.3 percent higher than a year earlier in nominal terms, but the typical mortgage payment was up 12.1 percent because mortgage rates had increased by more than 0.4 percentage points over that 12-month period. Figure 1 shows that while the inflationadjusted typical mortgage payment has trended higher in recent years, in October 2017 it remained 36.2 percent below the all-time peak of $1,259 in June That s because the average mortgage rate back in June 2006 was about 6.7 percent, compared with an average rate of 3.9 percent in October 2017, and the inflation-adjusted median sale price in June 2006 was $244,318 (or $199,900 in 2006 dollars), compared with a median of $212,680 in October An IHS Markit forecast calls for inflation and incomes to rise gradually over the next year, while a consensus forecast 1 suggests mortgage rates will gradually rise by about 0.6 basis points between October 2017 and October The CoreLogic Home Price Index forecast suggests the median sale price will rise 3.2 percent in real terms over the same period. Based on these projections, the inflation-adjusted typical mortgage payment would rise from $1,000 Oct-17: $803 Con nued on page 5 $800 $600 The typical mortgage payment used for this chart represents the inflation-adjusted monthly payment based on each month s U.S. median sale price and assumes a 20 percent down payment, a fixed-rate 30- year mortgage, and Freddie Mac s average monthly rate. It does not include taxes or insurance. Oct-16: $730 Feb-12: $550 $400 Jan-00 Jan-06 Jan-12 Jan-18 s Real Estate Analytics Suite, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac (for current and past mortgage rates), IHS Markit (for CPI forecast) and IHS, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors for averaging mortgage rate forecasts. Chart forecast period begins Nov-17. 4

7 The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 Articles Homebuyers' "Typical Mortgage Payment" continued from page 4 $803 in October 2017 to $891 by October 2018, an 11 percent year-over-year gain (Figure 2). (In nominal terms the typical mortgage payment would rise 12.9 percent over the next year.) Real disposable FIGURE 2. COMPARING MORTGAGE RATES TO THE YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE IN THE REAL MEDIAN PRICE & TYPICAL MORTGAGE PAYMENT YoY % Change in Real Median Price and Real Typical Mtg Pmt 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Oct-17: 9.9% Oct-18: 11.0% Oct-16: 8.1% Oct-16: 3.8% Jan-14 Oct-17: 4.2% Jan-15 Oct-18: 3.2% Avg 30-year Mtg Rate YoY Change in Real Median$ YoY Change in Real Typical Mtg Pmt s Real Estate Analytics Suite, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac (for current and past mortgage rates), IHS Markit (for CPI forecast) and IHS, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors for averaging mortgage rate forecasts. Chart forecast period begins Nov-17. New Home Sales continued from page 1 Affordability continues to be a pressing issue for prospective buyers, especially in high-cost markets. Higher levels of new construction, by adding to the existing housing stock, can alleviate some of these FIGURE 3. MORTGAGE FINANCING FOR NEW HOME BUYERS All New Home Sales Financing by New Home Sales Price FHA 19% Jumbo 6% VA 13% Other (1%) Conventional Conforming 61% income is projected to rise by around 3 percent over the same period, meaning next year s homebuyers would see a larger chunk of their incomes devoted to mortgage payments. pressures. We expect a 5 percent increase in housing starts in While this will help, we need an even larger increase in home building to alleviate the erosion of affordability, especially in high-cost areas. Sales Price public records, new home settlements January September 2017 (Number of mortgages). 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% <=$250,000 $250,001- $500,000 $500,001- $750,000 Jan-16 $750,001-$1 million Jan-17 >$1 million Jan-18 Forecast Other VA FHA 0 Monthly Avg Rate for 30-Yr Fixed-Rate Mtg Conventional Conforming Jumbo In the News Professional Builder, January 23, 2018 Forecasts Suggest Almost 13 Percent Rise in Typical Mortgage Payment Over the Next Year When assessing affordability, focusing on changing home prices along with the change in the typical mortgage payment over the past year can provide more insight than analyzing home prices alone, per CoreLogic s latest research. SFGate, January 22, 2018 Housing bears hibernate as U.S. homebuilders swagger into 2018 A rate rise from 4 to 5 percent for a 30-year loan would drive up monthly mortgage costs by 12 percent. For buyers, that s on top of the annual median price gain 7 percent for existing homes in November, according to CoreLogic. Palm Beach Post, January 22, 2018 S. Florida among overvalued housing markets to make first cut for Amazon s HQ2 More than half of the 20 finalists including South Florida have home prices that are overvalued, according to CoreLogic. Just two of the finalists Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are considered undervalued. Builder Magazine, January 19, 2018 One-Third of Homes Sold In September At or Above List Price One-third of homes sold in September 2017 were sold at or above list price, according to CoreLogic data. In addition, the share of homes sold above list price that month recovered to early 2004 levels. CoreLogic Insights reports. CNBC, January 18, 2018 Insurers take a hard look at California and see growing wildfire risk In Southern California, more than 13,500 homes in Los Angeles and Ventura counties are considered at high or extremely high wildfire risk, according to CoreLogic, a real estate information firm. 5

8 Articles The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 More Than a High Appraisal continued from page 2 buyers appear to have benefitted by having a faster-than-market appreciation during their ownership tenure A city-level breakdown is shown in Figure 4. Stockton (5.87 percent) and Riverside (5.22 percent) had the highest excess price gains, followed by San Francisco (4.62 percent), Los Angeles (4.35 percent), Bakersfield (4.24 percent), and San Jose (4.04 percent). Due to the use of county-wide HPIs for benchmarking, some cities such as Oakland, Riverside and others that may have experienced faster-rising prices than its county as a whole could well see across-the-board positive excess price appreciation. Regardless of the reason(s) why a home may have sold for less than its appraised value, the buyers appear to have benefitted by having a faster-than-market appreciation during their ownership tenure. FIGURE 3. ANNUALIZED EXCESS PROPERTY APPRECIATION, BY TIMING OF INITIAL PURCHASE 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% (1%) (2%) High-appraisal homes Low-appraisal homes Closely appraised homes FIGURE 4. ANNUALIZED EXCESS PROPERTY APPRECIATION, BY CITY Select City High-Appraisal Homes Low-Appraisal Homes Closely Appraised Homes Bakersfield 4.24% (0.02%) (1.13%) Fresno 0.72% (0.23%) 0.13% Irvine 2.06% (2.10%) (0.81%) Long Beach 3.27% (1.69%) (0.77%) Los Angeles 4.35% (0.01%) 1.09% Oakland 3.92% 4.78% 2.25% Riverside 5.22% 1.45% 1.29% Sacramento 1.93% 0.43% 0.63% San Diego 3.25% 0.01% (0.11%) San Francisco 4.62% 2.22% 0.70% distressed sales, median prices of highand low-appraisal homes were lower than closely appraised homes. Since both highand low-appraisal homes may have drawn disproportionately from lower-priced homes, faster price appreciation experienced by low-valued homes alone could not explain away the large disparities in price appreciation between the two. 1 In Figure 3, sample homes were further sub-grouped by the year in which they were initially purchased and appraised. Given significant market dynamics during , property appreciation rates were likely to vary depending on the timing of initial purchase. They ranged between 2 and 5 percent, reaching the highest during the 2012 market bottom when market-wide underpricing was likely the severest. 1 In general, low-price tier homes have appreciated faster. See Exhibit 1 inside the CoreLogic U.S. Economic Outlook (November 2015): frank-nothaft/2015/11/corelogic-us-economic-outlooknovember-2015.aspx#.wl-u6othyul. San Jose 4.04% 1.24% 0.21% Stockton 5.87% (1.12%) (0.52%) 6

9 The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 Analysis 10 Largest CBSA Loan Performance Insights Report October 2017 CBSA 30 Days or More Delinquency Rate October 2017 (%) Serious Delinquency Rate October 2017 (%) Foreclosure Rate October 2017 (%) 30 Days or More Delinquent Rate October 2016 (%) Serious Delinquency Rate October 2016 (%) Foreclosure Rate October 2016 (%) Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV October 2017 Home Price Index State-Level Detail Combined Single Family Including Distressed November 2017 State Month-Over-Month Percent Change Year-Over-Year Percent Change Forecasted Month-Over-Month Percent Change Forecasted Year-Over-Year Percent Change Alabama 0.1% 4.9% 0.2% 4.8% Alaska 0.1% 2.3% 0.0% 4.9% Arizona 0.4% 6.3% 0.1% 5.7% Arkansas 0.4% 3.6% 0.0% 4.4% California 0.4% 8.0% 0.3% 8.4% Colorado 0.8% 8.1% 0.2% 5.3% Connecticut 0.5% 2.4% 0.0% 5.9% Delaware 0.3% 4.6% 0.0% 3.9% District of Columbia 1.0% 2.7% 0.1% 3.7% Florida 0.4% 6.0% 0.1% 6.3% Georgia 0.2% 5.8% 0.0% 3.6% Hawaii Idaho 1.2% 10.4% 0.4% 4.4% Illinois 0.1% 3.5% 0.1% 4.7% Indiana 0.2% 4.8% 0.1% 4.7% Iowa 0.1% 4.0% 0.1% 3.4% Kansas 0.9% 2.3% 0.1% 3.7% Kentucky 0.3% 6.0% 0.1% 3.8% Louisiana 0.1% 4.8% 0.0% 2.5% Maine 1.5% 4.1% 0.8% 4.0% Maryland 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 3.9% Massachusetts 0.4% 6.5% 0.1% 4.6% Michigan 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 5.7% Minnesota 0.2% 6.0% 0.0% 3.2% Mississippi 2.0% 4.7% 0.2% 3.4% Missouri 0.5% 6.3% 0.1% 4.4% Montana 0.7% 5.8% 0.0% 3.5% Nebraska 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 3.6% Nevada 0.9% 10.8% 0.5% 8.3% New Hampshire 0.0% 7.1% 0.1% 5.7% New Jersey 0.4% 3.6% 0.1% 4.9% New Mexico 0.2% 2.0% 0.0% 3.3% New York 1.7% 5.2% 0.3% 4.6% North Carolina 0.5% 5.4% 0.1% 3.9% North Dakota 1.7% 6.4% 0.1% 2.5% Ohio 0.5% 6.4% 0.1% 4.1% Oklahoma 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 3.0% Oregon 0.3% 7.5% 0.1% 5.9% Pennsylvania 0.3% 3.4% 0.0% 4.2% Rhode Island 0.2% 8.0% 0.2% 3.5% South Carolina 0.7% 4.9% 0.1% 3.8% South Dakota 0.2% 9.1% 0.1% 2.7% Tennessee 0.1% 6.8% 0.1% 3.0% Texas 0.3% 5.4% 0.1% 2.1% Utah 0.9% 10.5% 0.2% 3.8% Vermont 0.1% 5.0% 0.0% 4.2% Virginia 0.1% 2.9% 0.1% 4.0% Washington 0.5% 12.2% 0.1% 4.9% West Virginia 0.2% 3.5% 0.0% 4.5% Wisconsin 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 4.0% Wyoming 1.0% 3.5% 0.0% 2.9% Rising home prices are good news for home sellers, but adds to the challenges that home buyers face. Rising numbers of first-time buyers find limited for-sale inventory for lowerprices homes, leading to higher rates of price growth for starter homes and further erosion of affordability. Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic October

10 Analysis The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 Charts & Graphs HOME PRICE INDEX Percentage Change Year Over Year 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Including Distressed May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 November 2017 OVERVIEW OF LOAN PERFORMANCE National Delinquency Rates Percentage Rate October 2016 October Days 30+ days or More to Days days to Days days to 119 Days days days Days (not in Past Due Past Due Past Due Past Due (not fcl) in fcl) 120+ days Days In Foreclosure Past Due October 2017 While natural hazard risk was elevated in 2017, the economic fundamentals that drive mortgage credit performance are the best in two decades. The combination of strong job growth, low unemployment rates, steady economic performance and prudent underwriting has led to continued improvement in mortgage performance heading into next year. Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic 8

11 The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 Analysis CORELOGIC HPI MARKET CONDITION OVERVIEW November 2017 Legend Normal Overvalued Undervalued CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through November CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting in December CORELOGIC HPI MARKET CONDITION OVERVIEW November 2022 Forecast Legend Normal Overvalued Undervalued CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through November CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting in December

12 Analysis The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 Variable Descriptions Variable Total Sales Total Sales 12-Month sum Total Sales YoY Change 12-Month sum New Home Sales New Home Sales Median Price Existing Home Sales REO Sales REO Sales Share REO Price Discount REO Pct Short Sales Short Sales Share Short Sale Price Discount Short Sale Pct Distressed Sales Share Distressed Sales Share (sales 12-Month sum) HPI MoM HPI YoY HPI MoM Excluding Distressed HPI YoY Excluding Distressed HPI Percent Change from Peak 90 Days + DQ Pct Definition The total number of all home-sale transactions during the month. The total number of all home-sale transactions for the last 12 months. Percentage increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales The total number of newly constructed residentail housing units sold during the month. The median price for newly constructed residential housing units during the month. The number of previously constucted homes that were sold to an unaffiliated third party. DOES NOT INCLUDE REO AND SHORT SALES. Number of bank owned properties that were sold to an unaffiliated third party. The number of REO Sales in a given month divided by total sales. The average price of a REO divided by the average price of an existing-home sale. The count of loans in REO as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the reporting period. The number of short sales. A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the sale proceeds fall short of the balance owed on the property's loan. The number of Short Sales in a given month divided by total sales. The average price of a Short Sale divided by the average price of an existing-home sale. The count of loans in Short Sale as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the month. The percentage of the total sales that were a distressed sale (REO or short sale). The sum of the REO Sales 12-month sum and the Short Sales 12-month sum divided by the total sales 12-month sum. Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a month ago. Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a year ago. Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a month ago. Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a year ago. Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series from the respective peak value in the index. The percentage of the overall loan count that are 90 or more days delinquent as of the reporting period. This percentage includes loans that are in foreclosure or REO. Stock of 90+ Delinquencies Percent change year-over-year of the number of 90+ day delinquencies in the current month. YoY Chg Foreclosure Pct Percent Change Stock of Foreclosures from Peak Pre-foreclosure Filings Completed Foreclosures Negative Equity Share Negative Equity The percentage of the overall loan count that is currently in foreclosure as of the reporting period. Percent increase or decrease in the number of foreclosures from the respective peak number of foreclosures. The number of mortgages where the lender has initiated foreclosure proceedings and it has been made known through public notice (NOD). A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in either the purchase of the home at auction or the property is taken by the lender as part of their Real Estate Owned (REO) inventory. The percentage of mortgages in negative equity. The denominator for the negative equity percent is based on the number of mortgages from the public record. The number of mortgages in negative equity. Negative equity is calculated as the difference between the current value of the property and the origination value of the mortgage. If the mortgage debt is greater than the current value, the property is considered to be in a negative equity position. We estimate current UPB value, not origination value. Months' Supply of Distressed Homes (total sales 12-Month avg) The months it would take to sell off all homes currently in distress of 90 days delinquency or greater based on the current sales pace. Price/Income Ratio CoreLogic HPI divided by Nominal Personal Income provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and indexed to January Conforming Prime Serious Delinquency Rate The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are within the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Jumbo Prime Serious Delinquency Rate The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are larger than the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). 10

13 End Notes The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 MORE INSIGHTS The CoreLogic Insights Blog (corelogic.com/blog) provides an expanded perspective on housing economies and property markets, including policy, trends, regulation and compliance. Please visit the blog for timely analysis, thoughtprovoking data visualizations and unique commentary from our team in the Office of the Chief Economist. The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact CoreLogic at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources. For more information please call CoreLogic CoreLogic Econ CoreLogic Insights On The Go. Download our free App now: The MarketPulse is a newsletter published by CoreLogic, Inc. ("CoreLogic"). This information is made available for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific commercial, financial or investment advice. CoreLogic disclaims all express or implied representations, warranties and guaranties, including implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, or non-infringement. Neither CoreLogic nor its licensors make any representations, warranties or guaranties as to the quality, reliability, suitability, truth, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information contained in this newsletter. CoreLogic shall not be held responsible for any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or losses resulting directly or indirectly from your reliance on the information contained in this newsletter. This newsletter contains links to third-party websites that are not controlled by CoreLogic. CoreLogic is not responsible for the content of third-party websites. The use of a third-party website and its content is governed by the terms and conditions set forth on the third-party s site and CoreLogic assumes no responsibility for your use of or activities on the site CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CORELOGIC HPI, SAFERENT and SCOREPLUS are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective holders. 17-MKTPLSE corelogic.com

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