Baltic Housing Affordability Index

Transcription

1 Macro Research Macro Research - Baltic Housing Affordability Index 14 September, 2017 Baltic Housing Affordability Index The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to in Tallinn, in Riga, and in Vilnius In Tallinn, affordability increased by 0.2 point in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as wage growth gained strength while apartment price growth moderated. In Riga, the HAI rose by 11.7 points, supported by robust wage growth and an ongoing decrease in interest rates. In Vilnius, the HAI improved by 1.4 points due to very rapid wage growth, which exceeded apartment price growth. The time needed to save for a down payment decreased in all three capitals by almost one week in Tallinn to 27.4 months, a couple of days in Riga to 23.4 months, and over three weeks in Vilnius to 36.2 months. The housing affordability index (HAI) is calculated for a family whose income is equal to 1.5 of average net wages with an average-sized apartment of 55 square meters. The HAI is 100 when households use 30% of their net wages for mortgage costs. When the HAI is at least 100, households can afford their housing, according to the established norm. The higher the number, the greater the affordability. Nerijus Mačiulis Nerijus.Maciulis@swedbank.lt Linda Vildava ; Linda.Vildava@swedbank.lv Siim Isküll ; Siim.Iskull@swedbank.ee September 14, 2017 Please see important disclosures at the end of this document Page 1 of 6

2 Components of HAI: apartment prices, interest rates, and wages Apartment prices Annual apartment price growth in the second quarter of 2017 moderated in Tallinn and Riga while remaining largely unchanged in Vilnius. Across the Baltic capitals, prices in Vilnius grew at the fastest pace. 2 nd quarter, % Tallinn: 6.3 Riga: 6.8 Vilnius: 8.0 In Tallinn, the real estate market remains active. The slowdown of price growth in the second quarter was expected, as temporary price-increasing effects ceased. In the first quarter of 2017, price growth rose to 12% due to the base effect and the structure of deals. In the beginning of this year, price growth in the city centre reached 22% as two expensive real estate developments were finished; at the same time the year before, prices were in a 10% dive. By the end of the second quarter, price growth had returned to 6.3% in Tallinn and 5% in the city centre. The supply of new apartments in the first half of this year remained ample. More than 600 new apartments were added to the market in the first and second quarters. Despite the relatively large supply of new apartments, interest in new real estate development projects is increasing. In 2016, construction permits were issued for a total of 2,200 apartments, whereas, in the first half of 2017, more than 2,000 permits had already been issued. The growth in the stock of housing loans is also slowly accelerating and reached 6.4% in July. In the context of high GDP growth and low interest rates, the increase in housing loan stock remains modest. The ECB will most likely start raising its base rate in 2019, which will keep interest rates for housing loans low for the near future. This year, we expect a slowdown in net real wage growth due to higher price growth, but the change in the tax system next year will increase net real wage growth in Although, we expect that the major positive impact from this real wage increase goes to consumption, this can have some impact on the demand and interest in real estate, as well. However, the supply should be sufficient to keep the price growth near the current level. The residential real estate market in Riga was stable in the second quarter of The average transaction price grew by 6.4% while activity decreased by 7.8% on an annual basis. The price growth reflects growing demand, especially for Soviet-era apartments, as well as rising construction costs. The decline in activity mainly stems from fewer transactions with apartments in new projects. In the second quarter, fewer projects in the new project economic segment were finished and released in the market, which partially explains the sluggish activity and suggests that the decline is temporary. However, recently transactions with land for private construction have been increasing. This signals that some people who would otherwise consider buying an apartment are opting for private houses as new apartment prices rise. However, the outlook is balanced the many projects in the pipeline will keep the apartment supply sufficient and slightly limit price growth. Demand is improving but lacks vigour, despite positive signals. In the first half of the year, economic growth accelerated, the unemployment rate steadily declined, and nominal gross wage growth gained pace, reaching close to 8%. Increasing consumer confidence and the slowing growth of household deposits somewhat reflected the improving outlook. However, consumer intentions to buy or build a house over the next 12 months remained subdued despite increasing readiness for other major purchases, such as cars. Resident banklending statistics reflected just that households kept deleveraging in the second quarter and new lending growth decelerated. Yet, this seems only a temporary setback. The ECB s bank lending survey reports that some Latvian banks intend to relax mortgage-lending standards and expect higher demand for mortgage loans in the third quarter. Overall, strong wage growth will persist and interest rates will remain low in the near future, stimulating demand. September 14, 2017 Please see important disclosures at the end of this document Page 2 of 6

3 The number of apartments sold in Vilnius started declining inthe second quarter this year. However, beginning in June, the new apartment segment became more active again, even though the number of old apartments continued to decline on an annual basis. Price growth subsided only marginally in the second quarter and accelerated again in July a surge that was also driven by the more expensive average price of newly built apartments. Price growth will be supported by rising construction costs, especially, labour costs. Wages in the construction sector this year are more than one-tenth higher than a year ago. Affordability remains close to a record-high level, and strong economic growth and a tight labour market will also contribute to strong demand. However, activity most likely has peaked already, and rent yields not only are not rising anymore but might even fall somewhat. Therefore, we expect moderate price growth, not to exceed wage growth. Interest rates on mortgages Mortgage interest rates increased slightly over the year in Estonia and Lithuania. In Latvia, due to competitive pressures, interest rates continued to decline, falling 48 basis points in a year.the six-month euro interbank offered rate (EURIBOR), which is most commonly used for mortgage interest rates, fell from -0.15% in the second quarter of 2016 to 0.25% in the second quarter of this year. 2 nd quarter, basis points Estonia: +5 Latvia: -48 Lithuania: +9 Average net wages Annual net wage growth accelerated further in Tallinn and Riga, while in Vilnius the rapid pace that had been established was maintained. 2 nd quarter, % Tallinn: 7.1 Riga: 7.2 Vilnius: 10.4 The HAI value of in Tallinn means that the net wage of a household in this city is 59.9% higher than required to afford an apartment, according to our norm (mortgage costs account for 30% of the net wage of a household that earns 1.5 of the average net wage). Meanwhile, in Riga, the household net wage is 83.5% higher and, in Vilnius, 29.4% higher than required to fulfil the norm. September 14, 2017 Please see important disclosures at the end of this document Page 3 of 6

4 Months to save for the down payment Over the past year, the number of months needed to save for a down payment, which equals 15% of an apartment price, decreased in all three Baltic capitals because rapid wage growth surpassed apartment price growth. It is assumed that a household saves 30% of its net wage every month for a down payment. 2 nd quarter, months Tallinn: -0.2 Riga: -0.1 Vilnius: -0.8 September 14, 2017 Please see important disclosures at the end of this document Page 4 of 6

5 Housing affordability index: method Purpose Norm Definition of housing affordability index Measure changes in household buying power, primarily as this relates to apartment purchases, but also act as an indicator for existing housing. Household mortgage costs, according to our definition, should not exceed 30% of net wages of a household. Actual income in relation to income required to meet the norm, where mortgage costs account for 30% of net wages of a household. If the index = 100, households are using 30% of their net wages. If the index > 100, household buying power exceeds the norm. And if the index < 100, household buying power is below the norm. The index is calculated according to the following formula: HAI where NINC AverageINC NINC PMT 30% *100 HAI housing affordability index AverageINC 1.5 of average monthly net wages NINC net wages that would satisfy the norm PMT monthly mortgage payment Variables Three-month average prices of apartments of average size (55 sq. m.) in capital cities. Average net wages of a household, equal to 1.5 of average monthly net wages in capital cities. Three-month average interest rates and other related charges (or annual percentage rate of charge - a rate that comprises an interest component and a component of other charges) for new housing loans to households issued in euros -- produce the monthly mortgage cost, assuming a 15% down payment and 30-year term. Limits The housing affordability index includes mortgage costs but excludes taxes and subsidies, including property tax and interest deductions. The index provides an indication of the situation for households composed of one or two working people who, combined, earn one-and-a-half times the average monthly wage; however, it does not reflect conditions for individual households. The index does not provide any direct guidance for business decisions, including lending and interest rate decisions. It reflects household buying power, based on apartment purchases that have been made, but says nothing about opportunities for apartment sales. The housing affordability index is of an informative nature and reflects macroeconomic developments, rather than banks' decisions and lending policies or possible decisions made by individual households. Periodicity Geography Quarterly Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius September 14, 2017 Please see important disclosures at the end of this document Page 5 of 6

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