LAND MONITOR REPORT

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1 LAND MONITOR REPORT Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

2 Contents Introduction 3 Housing Industry Association Wagga Branch 3 Definitions 4 Accuracy & Data Interpretation 5 Disclaimer 5 Opteon Southern Inland NSW 5 Residential Land Key Findings 7 Residential Land Graphs 8 Potential Residential Supply 15 Construction Statistics 20 Forecast Population and Dwellings 21 Commercial Land - Key Findings 23 Commercial Land - Graphs 24 Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

3 The Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report has been developed by the Housing Industry Association Wagga Branch and provides an overview of the vacant land supply in Wagga Wagga. The statistical information relates to historical take-up rates, current production and consumption together with future supply of vacant residential, rural residential, commercial and industrial land. This report also includes information regarding commercial and retail floor space together with demographics and development applications reported by financial years. It is hoped this information will enable stakeholders to make better informed decisions relating to market demand and future economic growth. The ultimate aim is to ensure that there is a sufficient supply and choice of vacant land going forward. THE HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION WAGGA BRANCH The Housing Industry Association (HIA) is the official body of Australia s home building industry. HIA is divided in nine geographic regions that provide a state or local focus, ensuing members needs and ideas are heard at the highest level. Our policy areas cover economics, industry, building, planning, industrial relations, legal, environment, training and skills. We advocate the views and policies of our members by contributing to enquiries and forums that impact on the residential building sector. For information on the local branch phone or enquiry@hia.com.au Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

4 DEFINITIONS The following definitions have been adopted throughout this report: Vacant Land A lot that is vacant and is suitable for either residential or non residential development. Lots produced for the purpose of public reserves, road reserves and boundary adjustments etc. have been excluded from this report. Redevelopment sites for the construction of residential units are considered produced once a Construction Certificate (CC) or Complying Development Certificate (CDC) has been issued. Lots Consumed A vacant lot on which construction of a dwelling or unit has commenced in the financial year. Commercial Use Land in the Wagga Wagga central business district and in the vicinity of suburban shopping centres. Industrial Use Land suitable for industrial and business uses outside the CBD and removed from suburban shopping centres. Dwelling Use Units Use Land suitable for the construction of Community Title and/or Strata Title units, duplexes, multiple dwellings on one title and flat developments. Median The median is the middle point of a number set, in which half the numbers are above the median and half are below. Lots Produced Lots produced for either residential or non residential use that have been registered with the New South Wales Land Titles Office (LTO). Also includes lots that have become vacant due to demolition and removal of previous improvements and remained vacant till the end of the financial year. Lots Sold A vacant lot for which a Contract of Sale was exchanged during the financial year and that sale registered with the LTO. Settlement of the sale may have occurred after the end of the financial year. We have attempted to exclude any sales that are between related parties. Land suitable for the construction of a single residential dwelling. Rural Residential Use Land suitable for the construction of a single dwelling with a site area generally larger than 1,200 square metres. Average The average is obtained by dividing the sum of a set of values by the number of values in the set. Population The population statistics quoted in this report relate to the whole Local Government Area of Wagga Wagga. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

5 ACCURACY & DATA INTERPRETATION As with any statistical calculation, a margin of error will result. In this report such errors are minor and typical due to a small percentage of lots which may not comply with the above definitions or a delay in information becoming publicly available. This report should not be used as an indication of a change in market value or the performance of our economy. Property market growth or decline is the result of various factors not limited to: The strength of the economy. Decreasing household sizes resulting in more houses being required for the same population. Housing affordability as result of various factors such as interest rates and rising construction costs. Temporary housing demand as result of major building projects. Government decisions and grants that affect homebuilders. A shortage of supply of land. The availability of large in globo parcels that attract larger property developers to the market. DATA SOURCE The information in this report has been researched, collated and produced by Craig Barrett, a real estate valuer employed by Opteon Pty Ltd. Craig has over 18 years experience practicing in the Riverina and South West Slope s regions of New South Wales and recently relocated to the Head Office based in Sydney. Opteon is the largest valuation firm by geographic coverage in Australia. Our offices in Wagga Wagga and Griffith combine local knowledge and experience together with our national network to provide the highest quality advice regardless of your needs. In formulating this report our research included physically identifying vacant blocks, reviewing property and sales databases, aerial imagery and collating the data to produce independent information that is supported by lot addresses and title information. Questions can be ed to Craig.Barrett@opteonsolutions.com DISCLAIMER Copyright in the report and the information is owned by the HIA Wagga Branch. Reproduction is not permitted without the prior written consent of the HIA. While the information contained in this report has been prepared with all due care for the benefit of the user, the HIA Wagga Branch, its officers, employees and agents do not warrant or make representations in relation to its accuracy. The information is made available on the understanding that the HIA shall not have a liability for any loss whatsoever that might arise as a result of use of the information by the reader or by third parties who receive information directly or indirectly. It is the user s responsibility to make his or her own investigations, decisions and enquiries about the accuracy and completeness of the information. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

6 Residential SNAPSHOT 807 vacant residential lots - 1% fewer blocks than the year before 330 new vacant lots produced - 36 fewer blocks than the year before 316 lots in the city have been vacant for over 4 years - a 3% increase 347 lots were built on - a 17.5% decrease on the previous year. 315 of sold lots were between 600 & 1,500 sqm in size Average price of vacant lots increased $3,032 - being a 2% increase 413 vacant lots were sold - a 10% decrease on the previous year Approx. 2,550 potential future lots zoned residential Updated population growth estimates following the 2016 Census indicates at least 450 new blocks per year are required for the next 3 years. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

7 KEY FINDINGS RESIDENTIAL LAND As at 30 June 2016, there were 807 vacant residential lots in Wagga Wagga a decrease of 1% from the previous year. 330 new vacant lots were produced in the city. This is 36 fewer lots compared to the year before. The number of blocks that have been vacant for more than 4 years increased by 3% from 306 to 316. Estates at Lloyd and Gobbagombalin released vacant lots at the end of the financial year, sales of these lots will be recorded next financial year. Of the 330 vacant lots produced in , 69% were located in 2 suburbs. These being Gobbagombalin (139 lots) and Lloyd (88 lots). 347 vacant lots were built on in the city, a 17.5% decrease on the previous record year. Due to the large housing commission developed estate, Tolland had the highest number of blocks that had been vacant for more than 4 years at 60 blocks. The majority of the cities developing suburban estates recorded increases in average sale price this year. Forest Hill is the only suburb to have recorded increases in sale prices each year for the last five years. The average sale price across Wagga Wagga increased from $147,253 to $150,285, a 2% increase, in the last financial year. Wagga Wagga s median sale price of $135,000 has increased for the second consecutive year. 76% of the 413 vacant lots sold in were between 600 and 1,500 square metres. The sale of rural residential lots accounted for about 11% of the market and recorded an increase in average lot price. The highest average vacant lot price per square metre was recorded in the new release at Gobbagombalin, being $199 per square metre, followed by Turvey Park at $198 per square metre. Central Wagga Wagga remains our most expensive suburb per square metre due to a limited supply of land. Due to the limited number of vacant land sales occurring in Tolland the average sale price fluctuates each year. This year the majority of sales occurred in a large housing commission developed estate. Overall sale prices are increasing, however some suburbs are showing a reduction in price per square metre, this is mostly due to larger size lots compared to those sold last year. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

8 Number of Vacant Lots VACANT LOT STATUS OVERVIEW The following totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties Total Vacant Lots at Start of Year Vacant Lots Produced Lots Built On During Year Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

9 Number of Vacant Lots VACANT LOT STATUS BY USE Dwellings Units Rural-Residential Total Vacant Lots at Start of Year Vacant Lots Produced Lots Built On During Year Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

10 Number of Vacant Lots VACANT LOTS PRODUCED BY SUBURB The following totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties 200 Existing stock Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

11 Number of Vacant Lots 100 VACANT LOTS CONSUMED BY SUBURB The following totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

12 TOTAL VACANT LOTS BY SUBURB AT 30 JUNE 2017 Ashmont 18 Boorooma 52 Wagga Wagga 136 Bourkelands 43 Uranquinty 3 Estella 37 Turvey Park 24 Forest Hill 61 Tolland 60 Glenfield Park 4 Tatton 45 Springvale 19 Gobbagombalin 106 Mount Austin 4 Moorong 7 Lloyd 101 Lake Albert 18 Gumly Gumly 13 Kooringal 56 Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

13 LAND THAT HAS BEEN VACANT FOR MORE THAN 4 YEARS BY SUBURB AT 30 JUNE 2017 Uranquinty 1 Turvey Park 4 Wagga Wagga 29 Ashmont 14 Boorooma 3 Bourkelands 5 Estella 23 Tolland 60 Forest Hill 30 Glenfield Park 4 Gumly Gumly 5 Kooringal 49 Total lots that have been Tatton 41 vacant for more than 4 years at 30 June 2017 Springvale 10 Mount Austin 3 Moorong 7 Lloyd 11 Lake Albert Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

14 Number of Lots RESIDENTIAL LOTS BUILT ON BY SUBURB The below totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties in 1 Year or Less Within 2 Years Within 3 Years 4 Years or More Vacant for more than 4 years Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

15 ESTIMATED POTENTIAL LOTS ZONED RESIDENTIAL NOT SUBDIVIDED AT 30 JUNE 2017 White = Multiple Developers Gobbagombalin 495 Lots Estella 330 Lots Boorooma 145 Lots Yellow = Single Developer Wagga Wagga 96 Lots Turvey Park 50 Lots Gumly Gumly 135 Lots Lloyd 1,040 Lots 2550 Forest Hill 190 Lots Lake Albert 70 Lots This information was supplied by active land developers and represents the majority of potential greenfield residential subdivisions. Other developable parcels are located throughout the city although may not be zoned residential or DA approved. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

16 Number of Sales Sale Price VACANT LOT SALES AND PRICE OVERVIEW $147,253 $150,285 $139,366 $138,721 $141,056 $133,000 $135,000 $125,000 $125,000 $125, $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 $0 Lots <600m2 Lots >600m2 <800m2 Lots >800m2 <1,500m2 Lots >1,500m2 <10,000m2 Lots >10,000m2 Average Median The above totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

17 AVERAGE VACANT LOT PRICE BY SIZE $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90, Lots <600m2 Lots >600m2 <800m2 Lots >800m2 <1,500m2 Lots >1,500m2 <10,000m2 Lots >10,000m2 Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

18 $0 $0 $0 $27,000 $41,333 $25,750 $40,000 $40,556 $37,800 $41,167 $83,000 $92,357 $84,000 $82,250 $65,000 $118,859 $118,513 $118,510 $138,267 $127,869 $118,667 $140,691 $138,263 $153,451 $176,000 $123,651 $119,242 $117,848 $126,765 $129,750 $102,214 $103,639 $116,522 $122,673 $127,191 $109,125 $99,600 $135,667 $122,337 $124,690 $126,658 $148,271 $126,400 $140,167 $128,333 $128,000 $127,500 $128,486 $138,656 $124,000 Sale Price $147,500 $150,846 $182,833 $177,500 $177,417 $180,500 $171,219 $218,750 $238,667 $247,000 $239,385 $231,400 $207,000 $198,286 $218,400 $215,773 $233,333 $232,700 $233,909 $264,230 $232,700 $249,083 $231,667 $268,571 $291,750 $267,500 $275,000 $270,000 $265,000 $306,667 $310,000 $299,000 $350,000 AVERAGE VACANT LOT PRICE BY SUBURB The following totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $ Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

19 $0 $0 $0 $16 $15 $19 $16 $12 $21 $17 $44 $40 $33 $38 $45 $30 $34 $39 $52 $53 $53 $49 $63 $66 $63 $64 $73 $77 $74 $84 $97 $102 $94 $114 $116 $108 $159 $163 $151 $165 $166 $149 $143 $133 $144 $140 $130 $140 $149 $158 $125 $147 $143 $157 $175 $169 $181 $173 $165 $174 $176 $172 $166 $157 $157 $151 $175 $186 $179 $176 $190 $174 $169 Rate Per Square Metre $199 $189 $195 $198 $280 $355 $437 $450 $475 $500 AVERAGE VACANT LOT PRICE PER SQUARE METRE The following totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

20 Construction Statistics - Number of applications each year CONSTRUCTION STATISTICS Residential Dwellings Other Residential Total Residential Approvals The above residential building approvals are compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics from permits issued by local government authorities and other principal certifying authorities. Alterations or additions to existing dwellings are not included. > A 'Residential Dwelling' is a stand-alone residential structure, separated on all sides from other dwellings by at least half a metre. > 'Other Residential' is a building other than a house primarily used for long-term residential purposes. It contains more than one dwelling unit within the same structure. Construction Statistics - Construction cost of applications each year Residential $94,664,000 $117,368,000 $87,444,000 $71,965,000 $82,157,000 $116,235,000 $114,947,000 $143,397,000 $114,587,000 Non-Residential $92,852,000 $188,558,000 $114,630,000 $104,107,000 $54,333,000 $221,302,000 $114,409,000 $60,297,000 $22,190,000 Total $187,516,000 $305,926,000 $202,074,000 $176,072,000 $136,490,000 $337,537,000 $229,356,000 $203,694,000 $136,777,000 Value of building approval data are sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue number Building Approvals, Australia. The value of approval data includes all approved residential building valued at $10,000 or more and all approved non-residential building valued at $50,000 or more. Value of building work excludes the value of land, and also excludes landscaping, but includes site preparation costs. Both new dwellings and alterations and additions to existing dwellings are included in the residential approvals. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

21 FORECAST POPULATION AND DWELLINGS WAGGA WAGGA LGA ESTIMATED FORECAST Summary Population 61,781 62,163 62,509 62,924 63,520 64,085 65,712 66,869 68,013 Change in population ,627 1,157 1,144 Average annual change (%) Average household size New Dwellings Per Year Population forecasts prepared by.id the population experts, April Existing Lots (excluding aged) At 30 June New lots constructed this year Estimated Potential future lots 2,550 5 years supply Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

22 Commercial SNAPSHOT Non-Residential Construction decreased by about 63% from the previous year The redevelopment of a former church to a childcare centre was the only commercial lot developed this year 3 industrial lots had been built on during the year 70 vacant industrial lots remain, a 4% decrease The majority (71%) of vacant industrial lots are at East Wagga Wagga 26 vacant commercial lots, unchanged from the year before Residential Development Applications accounted for approximately 84% of constructions costs this financial year. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

23 KEY FINDINGS COMMERCIAL LAND The cost of non-residential construction has fluctuated significantly over the last 9 years. This year Non-Residential Construction decreased by about 63% from the previous year. Residential Development Applications accounted for approximately 84% of constructions costs this financial year The only commercial lot produced this year was the redevelopment of a former church to a childcare centre at Kooringal. At 30 June 2017 there were 26 vacant commercial land parcels in the city, which is unchanged from last year. 3 industrial lots were built on in At 30 June 2017, of the 70 vacant industrial lots 71% were located in the East Wagga Wagga area. Infrastructure works currently underway at Bomen are likely to increase development activity in this area in the coming years. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

24 Number of Vacant Lots 100 VACANT LOTS BY USE Commercial Industrial 7 Total Lots at Start of Year Vacant Lots Produced Lots Built On During Year Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

25 VACANT INDUSTRIAL LOTS BY SUBURB AT 30 JUNE 2017 Kooringal 3 Wagga Wagga 2 Ashmont 4 Bomen 4 Gumly Gumly 7 East Wagga Wagga 50 Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

26 VACANT LOTS BY USE AT 30 JUNE 2017 Rural-Residential 58 Commercial 26 Industrial 70 Units 209 Dwellings 540 Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

27 you re in good hands Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report

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