Multifamily Outlook 1H Page 1

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1 Multifamily Outlook Page 1

2 Table of Contents Overview 3 Toronto 4 Montreal 8 Vancouver 12 Calgary 16 Edmonton 20 2 Page 2

3 Canada Multifamily Capital Markets Insight Rising from strength to strength Overview After two years of record-setting volumes and $19.4 billion in transactions over the last three years, the pace of investment activity is not showing any signs of slowing down. With 1H17 investment volumes at $2.7 billion, it seems that investment activity in 2017 is set to match that of Demand is as strong as it has ever been and there will continue to be a voracious appetite for multifamily assets throughout Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. Vancouver leads the league tables and accounts for 37 percent of all investment volumes as of 1H17, followed by Toronto and Montreal which account for 20 percent and 16 percent of all investment volumes. At the other end of the spectrum lie Edmonton and Calgary which account for 4 percent and 2 percent of all investment volume in 1H17. There continues to be a lack of multifamily product available for purchase in Calgary and Edmonton as vendors are keeping a watchful eye on interest rates, oil prices, and the overall Alberta economy. Mid-to long term optimism in the sector remains high across varied sources of capital, notably among private and institutional investors, which continue to pursue opportunities of scale in the multifamily space. Private investors accounted for ~70 percent of all investment activity in the sector as of 1H17. We note the rise in activity among developers who are looking to add more institutional quality product into the market going forward. Outlook The appetite from institutional and private sources of capital will remain stable for the multifamily sector given historic sector performance and favourable demographics, to name a few factors. That said, urban construction and elevated asset pricing, selectivity and caution will remain the norm. Capital will favour high-growth markets, high-barrier-to-entry submarkets and the continued diversification of overall portfolio exposure across these geographies. 9% 19% Investment volume (C$M) $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 4% 2% 7% Vancouver 5% 37% Toronto 16% $0 $3,874 20% $7,702 1H17 Investment Activity by Market $5,152 Montreal Other Ontario Other BC Edmonton Calgary 1H17 Investment Activity by Investor Group $2, H17 Rest of Canada 10% 1% Private Investors Investment Funds REIT/REOC 70% Pension Funds Source: RCA Analytics Note: Market data as of latest available 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 3

4 Toronto Capital Markets Insight Page 4

5 Toronto Multifamily Insight Competition remains fierce among asset managers and private buyers alike. The Toronto multifamily market is witnessing voracious demand from investors across the spectrum and is poised to match investment volumes as seen in FY2016 Most deals in the GTA market are in the class B to C range, with not many A class buildings trading and none of which are to scale Given the escalation in value and increased sophistication required to remain competitive, mom and pop ownership is becoming rarer in buildings larger than 50 units 1H17 INVESTMENT VOLUME: ~0.5B $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ Investment volume (C$M) BUYER PROFILE 1H % 4.9% Investment Funds 46.4% Private Investors 33.0% REIT/REOC Pension Fund BUYER DOMICILE 1H % Canada Sweden 84.3% Source: RCA Analytics Note: Market data as of latest available Page 5

6 Toronto Multifamily Insight Red Hot Market 2017 continues where 2016 left off in the GTA with the year to date investment volumes remaining similar to that of the first half of Demand is as strong as it has ever been and there will continue to be a voracious appetite for multifamily assets throughout Toronto and the GTA. Current momentum suggests that changes in mortgage rates will not affect most market deals. Overall cap rates have dropped to 4.03%, with the average price per suite up to $187,000. Overall suite volumes, however, are lower as compared to 1H16 with only 2,200 suites trading till date, as the supply of available rental properties continues to consolidate. Most deals in the GTA market are in the B to C- class range, with not many A class buildings trading and none of which are to scale. Despite a tremendous reduction in the overall suite volume traded, the sustained level of dollar volume can be attributed to the cap rate compression that has occurred over the past 5 years and the voracious appetite for multifamily assets throughout the GTA. Competition remains fierce among asset managers and private buyers alike. Once again, Starlight Investments has been the most active purchaser in 2017 totaling $120M. Many of the top leading purchasers have been on the top volume buyer lists for the past decade. This leads us to conclude that the consolidation of multifamily properties continues into the hands of REITs, investment funds and established families. We expect this trend to continue with new construction currently underway. Given the escalation in value and increased sophistication required to remain competitive, mom and pop ownership is becoming rarer in buildings larger than 50 units. As the pool of available properties diminishes, in our view, there are two types of properties being brought to the market. The first type of product is optimized, has market rents, is well capitalized with efficiency measures implemented. The second, is a tired under rented building with old mechanical systems in need of a full repositioning. Cap rates continue to decrease fueled by demand and inexpensive debt, regularly creeping into the 3 percent level and sometimes high 2 percent levels for buildings that offer extreme opportunity and are value add buys. It is important to note that it is misleading to view cap rates in the absence of details surrounding the individual transactions. Value add purchases in non-core locations can skew the metrics towards a lower price per door and cap rate. While low cap rate deals do occur, in most instances they come with a story which gets longer as the cap rate sinks. Toronto 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% High Rise A (%) 3.50%-4.00% 3.25%-4.00% 3.25%-4.00% Low Rise A (%) 3.50%-4.00% 3.25%-4.00% 3.25%-4.00% 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 6

7 Toronto Multifamily Insight Notable transactions Silverspring Park, Scarborough Exbury Towers, North York 132 Berkeley Street, Toronto Sales Price $84,000,000 NA Units 430 PPU $195,349 Starlight Sales Price $65,700, % Units 308 PPU $213,312 Azuria Group Sales Price $26,850,000 NA Units 177 PPU $303,390 Oxford Properties Picture 2777 Kipling Avenue, Etobicoke 1130 Wilson Avenue, North York The Castilian, North York Sales Price $55,000,000 NA Units 325 PPU $169,231 Minto Properties Sales Price $22,200,000 NA Units 118 PPU $188,136 Humber River Apt Sales Price $20,800, % Units 102 PPU $203,922 Starlight Picture 110 Wellesley Street, Toronto 2810 Keele Street, Toronto 5 Benlamond Ave, Toronto Sales Price $13,775, % Units 48 PPU $286,979 Akelius Sales Price $11,150,000 NA Units 53 PPU $210,377 DavPart Inc. Sales Price $13,300, % Units 55 PPU $241,818 Terrace Manor 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 7

8 Montreal Capital Markets Insight Page 8

9 Montreal Multifamily Insight We note the surplus of demand in the market amid a lack of good quality product. Even though cap rates remain compressed and are expected to compress further, any high quality product will be heavily bid on $1,500 $1,000 1H17 INVESTMENT VOLUME: ~0.5B Montreal s multifamily market has been, for the most part, dominated by private investor activity. We have begun to see significant purpose built development and there is considerable difference between rental rates of old stock multi-family and new condo style apartment buildings $500 $ Investment volume (C$M) We foresee the secondary rental market to be the biggest threat to traditional multifamily building owners downtown as they are competing against new-built towers with amenities at competitive pricing BUYER PROFILE 1H % Private Investors 20.5% Investment Funds 68.5% REIT/REOC BUYER DOMICILE 1H17 9.7% 8.9% Canada Singapore 81.4% Hong Kong Source: RCA Analytics Note: Market data as of latest available Page 9

10 Montreal Multifamily Insight Private Investors Continue To Dominate In A Rising Market Investment performance for multi-residential assets hit some of the highest returns since 2012, a reflection of investors confidence in current cap rates and the sector s general outlook. Demand is as strong as it has ever been and there will continue to be a voracious appetite for multifamily assets throughout the GMA. Current momentum suggests that changes in mortgage rates will not affect most market deals. We have begun to see significant purpose built multi-family development resulting in a considerable difference between rental rates of old stock apartments and new condo style apartment buildings. Demand for high quality multi-family assets remain exceptionally high across all investor types from high net worth privates to institutions and REIT s. Private investors are actively on the lookout for value-add opportunities while institutional buyers are seeking core properties with renewed vigor. reaching unprecedented levels with transactions breaking through the $400,000 per door range. Cap rates continue to decrease fueled by demand and inexpensive debt, regularly creeping into the 3 percent levels for buildings that offer extreme opportunity and are value add buys. It is important to note that it is misleading to view cap rates in the absence of details surrounding the individual transactions. Value add purchases in non-core locations can skew the metrics towards a lower price per door and cap rate. While low cap rate deals do occur, in most instances they come with a story which gets longer as the cap rate sinks. Vacancy rates in the GMA have remained stable over the last 12 months, however the influx of condo development in the downtown core and its surroundings has created competition for multi-family stock and resulted in higher vacancy rates in the downtown area. We foresee the secondary rental market to be the biggest threat to traditional multifamily building owners downtown as they are competing against new-built towers with amenities at competitive pricing. With rental rates on the rise and cap rates remaining historically low, the average price per unit in Montreal are Toronto 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% High Rise A (%) 4.25%-4.75% 4.25%-4.75% 4.25%-4.75% Low Rise A (%) 4.50%-5.00% 4.50%-5.00% 4.50%-5.00% 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 10

11 Montreal Multifamily Insight Notable transactions Le Saint-M Le Mistral Domaine Saint-Martin Sales Price $38,775, % Units 118 PPU $328,602 Canadian Urban Sales Price $24,000, % Units 224 PPU $107,143 InterRent Sales Price $38,000, % Units 355 PPU $107,042 Manulife 5999 Monkland Avenue 5740 Cavendish Boulevard René-Lévesque Sales Price $46,400,000 Units 170 PPU $272,941 GWL Sales Price $23,500, % Units 256 PPU $91,797 CAPREIT Sales Price $13,435,000 Units 47 PPU $285, Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 11

12 Vancouver Capital Markets Insight Page 12

13 Vancouver Multifamily Insight Record low vacancy rates in chosen suburban markets can be attributed to younger or lower income individuals who are moving from core centers to avoid paying high rental rates We notice that cap rates have begun to stabilize in major urban centers and we continue to see them compress in suburban areas where rental rates have seen substantial growth, such as New Westminster The multifamily sector is yet to see foreign investment come in. While there have been a number of inquiries, there hasn t been a transaction involving Asian capital to date in H17 INVESTMENT VOLUME : $1.0bn $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ Investment volume (C$M) BUYER PROFILE 1H17 1.1% Private Investors REIT/REOC 98.9% BUYER DOMICILE 1H17 3.4% Canada United States 96.6% Source: RCA Analytics Note: Market data as of latest available Page 13

14 Vancouver Multifamily Insight Unwavering Insatiable Appetite! Vancouver is expected to surpass the investment volumes seen in 2016 as the province posted investment volumes of >$1bn at the end of 1H17. Demand is as strong as it has ever been and there will continue to be a voracious appetite for multifamily assets throughout Vancouver. Current momentum suggests that changes in mortgage rates will not affect most market deals. In the face of tight market conditions and the lack of quality product, home builders have ramped up production and there are more than 40,000 units currently under construction in the province. However, we expect rising interest rates to play a significant factor in the market going forward. We notice that cap rates have begun to stabilize in major urban centers and we continue to see them compress in suburban areas where rental rates have seen substantial growth, such as New Westminster. Record low vacancy rates in chosen suburban markets can be attributed to younger or lower income individuals who are moving from core centers to avoid paying high rental rates. It is important to note that it is misleading to view cap rates in the absence of details surrounding the individual transactions. Value add purchases in non-core locations can skew the metrics towards a lower price per door and cap rate. While low cap rate deals do occur, in most instances they come with a story which gets longer as the cap rate sinks. The British Columbia economy is expected to post its fourth consecutive year of 3 per cent or more real GDP growth in The cumulative effect of such a long period of above-trend economic expansion is rising employment levels, robust consumer confidence and increased migration from other provinces. As the province transitions into a minority government, a first in the history of British Columbia, speculation around how this will effect the housing market continues to grow. Vancouver 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% High Rise A (%) 2.00%-3.00% 2.00%-3.00% 2.00%-3.00% Low Rise A (%) 2.50%-3.25% 2.50%-3.25% 2.50%-3.25% 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 14

15 Vancouver Multifamily Insight Notable transactions 1609 Cypress St, Vancouver Bel Aire & Beuna Vista Apt, Surrey Regency Square, Surrey Sales Price $9,580, % Units 16 PPU $598, B.C. Sales Price $27,100, % Units 140 PPU $193,571 Onni Belaire Holdings Sales Price $38,400, % Units 243 PPU $158,.025 Onni Regency Holdings Picture Balsam Gardens, Vancouver Braemar Gardens, Coquitlam Barafield Apartments, Vancouver Sales Price $15,500, % Units 33 PPU $469, B.C. Sales Price $21,500,000 Units 126 PPU $170,635 Realstar Properties Sales Price $42,000, % Units 109 PPU $385,321 Hollyburn Properties Picture Southview Gardens, Vancouver Edmond s Kourt, New Westminster 2145 Bellevue, West Vancouver Sales Price $72,185, % Units 140 PPU $515,610 Southview Gardens Ltd. Sales Price $8,430, % Units 37 PPU $227,838 Jim Frangolias Sales Price $28,300, % Units 37 PPU $764, B Holdings 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 15

16 Calgary Capital Markets Insight

17 Calgary Multifamily Insight There continues to be a lack of multifamily product available for purchase in Calgary as vendors are keeping a watchful eye on interest rates, oil prices, and the overall Alberta economy While the number of multifamily transactions in 1H2017 in the Calgary market has increased in comparison to 1H2016, the total investment volume in dollar terms is lower in the same period, with the difference largely being in the value of high-rise apartment sales Private investors are actively on the lookout for value-add opportunities while institutional buyers are seeking core properties with renewed vigor. The current buyer profile have been all domestic investors although new investors are beginning to enter the Calgary market $300 $200 $100 $0 1H17 INVESTMENT VOLUME: ~100M Investment volume (C$M) BUYER PROFILE 1H % Private Investors 25.8% 61.3% Investment Funds REIT/REOC BUYER DOMICILE 1H17 Canada 100.0% Source: RCA Analytics Note: Market data as of latest available Page 17

18 Calgary Multifamily Insight Private investors hold sway over the market There continues to be a lack of multifamily product available for purchase in Calgary as vendors are keeping a watchful eye on interest rates, oil prices, and the overall Alberta economy. The first half of 2017 saw a total of 38 apartment transactions worth $92M. While the number of multifamily transactions in 1H2017 in the Calgary market has increased in comparison to 1H2016, the total investment volume in dollar terms is lower in the same period, with the difference largely being in the value of high-rise apartment sales. The average price per door of multifamily product that has traded in the first half of 2017 is down from the first half of 2016, providing a strong signal of weak market fundamentals having a negative effect on net operating incomes. lookout for value-add opportunities while institutional buyers are seeking core properties with renewed vigor. The current buyer profile have been all domestic investors although new investors are beginning to enter the Calgary market as buyers look for an alternative to the low cap rate environments in Toronto and Vancouver. We note that vendors are reluctant to sell in what they perceive as a buyers market. It is difficult to achieve their expectations and match the needs of the buyers Looking ahead into the second half of 2017, we expect the demand for multifamily product to remain strong among private investors looking to acquire smaller, existing and cash flowing properties. We also foresee increased competition for core product caused by new entrants to the market to put a slight downward pressure on cap rates, specifically in the high-rise concrete sub product. Strong demand continues to exist for well located, quality multifamily product. Private investors are actively on the Calgary 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% High-rise (%) % % % Low-rise (%) % % % 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 18

19 Calgary Multifamily Insight Notable transactions Radisson Place Apartments Sales Price $24,000,000 Units 130 PPU $184,615 Minto Spruce Grove Lane Sales Price $12,800,000 Units 66 PPU $195,000 Killam Properties Soho One Sales Price $8,600,000 Units 41 PPU $209,756 Private th Avenue SW Sales Price $3,446,751 Units 12 PPU $287,229 Private nd Avenue NW Sales Price $3,120,000 Units 15 PPU $208,000 Private th Avenue NE Sales Price $2,880,000 Units 15 PPU $192,000 Private 724 & th Street NE Sales Price $2,650,000 Units 14 PPU $189,286 Private 3703/07 15A Street SW. Sales Price $2,550,000 Units 12 PPU $212,500 Private th Street SW Sales Price $2,100,000 Units 13 PPU $161,500 Private Source: RealNet Note: Market data as of latest available 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 19

20 Edmonton Capital Markets Insight Page 20

21 Edmonton Multifamily Insight We note that vendor and purchaser pricing expectations have largely yet to align with higher vacancies and lower rents, which the market is currently experiencing. The recent bump in interest rates may further widen the gap There is a considerable lack of supply of high-rise concrete product in the City of Edmonton and the opportunity to acquire such product is rarely available. We expect to see a renewed interest in core type product, however, at lower prices than seen in the past $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 1H17 INVESTMENT VOLUME: ~350M Investment volume (C$M) We foresee that the largest demand for multifamily product will continue to be in the high-rise concrete sector of the market with buyers looking to acquire this product under a reposition or value-add strategy BUYER PROFILE 1H % 6.0% Investment Funds Private Investors 80.1% REIT/REOC BUYER DOMICILE 1H17 Canada 100.0% Page 21

22 Edmonton Multifamily Insight Alberta Multifamily: Waiting to Launch There continues to be a lack of multifamily product available for purchase in Edmonton as vendors keep a watchful eye on interest rates, oil prices, and the overall Alberta economy. The number of multifamily transactions in 1H2017 in the Edmonton market has decreased as compared to 1H2016, however total investment dollars is up, fueled by the $191M transaction of Edgewater on Jasper that took place in January Edgewater was purchased by Timbercreek their first purchase in Edmonton signaling that new buyers are capitalizing on opportunities to enter the market. We note that vendor and purchaser pricing expectations have largely yet to align with higher vacancies and lower rents, which the market is currently experiencing. The recent bump in interest rates may further widen the gap. We have noticed a flight to quality from tenants looking to take advantage of incentives that lower the net rent they have to pay on an annual basis. As a result this has made living in newer buildings with more amenities more affordable for those who have stable employment. acquire such product is rarely available. In our view, the market could see a slight cap rate compression in this subproduct as oil prices stabilize and the economy improves. We also expect to see a renewed interest in core type product, however, at lower prices than seen in the past. We foresee that the largest demand for multifamily product will continue to be in the high-rise concrete sector of the market with buyers looking to acquire this product under a reposition or value-add strategy. The development of the ICE District along with a more vibrant downtown, has generated greater demand for multifamily product refocusing from suburban areas back to the core. An underlying urbanization trend along with a developing downtown, may lead to an increase in the value of infill, transit oriented sites as development opportunities near the core become more scarce. We expect cap rates to remain low for existing, high-rise, concrete product as demand will still continue to outpace supply and we also expect that in the near term cap rates will remain relatively stable with the recent bump in interest rates having little to no impact. There is a considerable lack of supply of high-rise concrete product in the City of Edmonton and the opportunity to Edmonton 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% High-rise (%) % % % Low-rise (%) % % % 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 22

23 Edmonton Multifamily Insight Notable transactions Edgewater on Jasper Sales Price $191,000,000 Units 694 PPU $275,216 Timbercreek Pembroke portfolio Sales Price $46,850,000 Units 349 PPU $134,241 Minto Properties Chappelle Gardens Sales Price $27,350, % Units 160 PPU $170,935 Gill Apartments Village Acres Sales Price $17,800, % Units 186 PPU $95,698 Mainstreet Equity Concord Tower Sales Price $12,000, % Units 101 PPU $118,811 GWL Advisors The Red Deer Portfolio Sales Price $8,050, % Units 74 PPU $108,784 Private Woodridge Place Sales Price $7,630, % Units 54 PPU $141,305 Private Cascade Manor Sales Price $3,366, % Units 33 PPU $102,000 Mainstreet Equity Highland House Sales Price $2,310, % Units 22 PPU $105,000 Private Source: Gettel Network Note: Market data as of latest available 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Page 23

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