the great house price divide A briefing paper by the Smith Institute

Transcription

1 the great house price divide A briefing paper by the Smith Institute

2 the great house price divide A briefing paper by the Smith Institute Published by The Smith Institute This report represents the views of the authors and not those of the Smith Institute. The Smith Institute December 2013

3 Contents Content Foreword Executive summary House prices in England and Wales House price boom and bust Price changes in pounds Who benefits and by how much? The total value of the housing stock: the growing regional divide A divided Britain: London and the North East Falling house prices since 2010 A tale of one (inner) city Ranking of average house prices by local area

4 Foreword This briefing paper, written by the Smith Institute s in-house research team, forms part of our on-going work programme on the housing crisis. It follows recent reports we have published on council housing, the London housing market, the future of housing associations, housing and philanthropy, and home ownership. The research is intended to inform the debate about the state of the residential property market and house price movements in England and Wales. Our aim is to document what has happened across the country to house prices since the financial crisis, and to place the spotlight on some of the policy implications. The purpose of the report is not however to argue that high prices are good thing but to draw attention to the growing spatial disparities. We felt there was a need to provide a fuller picture of local housing markets and price movements since 2007, not least so policy makers are better informed about future house price growth and how price changes impact on demand and supply. There is also a need to look much wider at the socio-economic effects of changes in house prices by local areas. The discussion about house price movements has recently been dominated by rising house prices in London and its hinterland. Our research clearly documents the London effect, with values above what they were before the financial crisis. But, what stands out from the data is that there are many places in England and Wales where values are low and house prices remain well below their 2007 peak. As the research shows, what we have witnessed over the past six years is the growth of two distinct and divergent housing markets: a London centric property market where house prices have recovered and in some cases soared; and the rest of England and Wales where prices are flat and transactions are low. Beyond the headlines of double digit price rises in inner London, the report is a salutary reminder that average house prices for the country (which discount inflation) remain below their 2007 peak. It is also important to recognise that the divergence in house prices is symptomatic of deep-rooted and persistent uneven economic development, with jobs and growth concentrated in London and the South East. Increasing numbers of those looking to buy in these high demand areas will be excluded from homeownership. In those regions where prices are highest homeownership levels have been falling fastest. Moreover, it can lead to house price bubbles (especially given the historically high ratio of earnings to house prices). Perhaps just as worryingly if investment in new homes follows demand for housing (i.e. in London and the South East) it will result in more 3

5 economic activity and growth in these places thus further unbalancing the economy. Nevertheless, millions of home owners have seen the value of their homes collapse. This not only reduces some people s personal wealth (and that of regions), but also undermines their ambition to move on. In many parts of the country homeowners (particularly those who bought homes at the peak of the market) will now be in negative equity. The problem could become very serious in low value areas if interest rates rise. House-builders, developers and lenders are also wary of the higher risks in places where values remain low. This further distorts an already imperfect housing market and has a negative knock-on effect for investment in affordable and sub-market housing. For these reasons any government should take careful note of what has occurred since 2007 and calibrate its housing policy in the future to avoid another damaging cycle of housing boom and bust. Paul Hackett, Director, Smith Institute 4

6 Executive summary 5

7 Executive summary The research is primarily based on data from HM Land Registry and covers the period from the house price peak in November 2007 to October Of the 179 local areas examined in England and Wales, the place where house prices have fallen the most is Blaenau Gwent prices there have fallen by almost half (47.7%), and the average cost of a home is now 46,356. Other places have also seen major price falls: Hartlepool down 41.9%, Knowsley down 36.2%, Blackpool down 34.5%, Liverpool down 33%. The place where house prices have risen the most over the period is the City of Westminster, which saw price rises of 43.2% and the average price of a home is now 863,257. Other places in London also saw huge rises: Kensington & Chelsea up 42.8%, Hackney up 35.6%, Islington up 27.6%, Camden up 26.9% Across the country average prices are down by 15,000. In London the average home homeowner is 40,000 wealthier, whilst in the North East they are 30,000 poorer. An average homeowner in Hartlepool will have lost 44,000 on the value of their home since 2007; meanwhile an average homeowner in Kensington and Chelsea would have seen the value of their home rise by 351,000. Average house prices in England and Wales are 9% down on their peak in In London they are up by 12%. As a consequence, the average house price in England and Wales is 166,000. In London it is almost 400,000. The gap in average house prices between London and England and Wales has widened from 1.9 times in October 2007 to 2.4 times in October In all regions outside London house prices are still below the peak of Areas in the Midlands are 15% lower and in the North East down almost 25%. These changes also mask differences within and between London and other areas. The differential between the lowest and highest value areas was 10 times in

8 Now it stands at almost 25 times. All areas with average prices above 278,000 have experienced price rises, whereas just 5% of areas with prices below 278,000 have. Overall, those in high value housing areas have experienced rises whilst those in low cost areas have witnessed falls. Not only does this impact negatively on individuals but also on areas. For example, whilst the value of London s housing stock has increased by 140 billion since 2007 it has fallen by 203 billion in England and Wales (and by 343 billion excluding London). London s share of England and Wales property wealth has increased from 20% to 24% in five years. In total, London s 3.4 million homes are worth 1.3 times the value of the 6.9 million homes in the North East, Wales, East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber. House prices have fallen in value since the general election in all but London, the South East and Eastern Region. London has experienced a rise of 17%. Even within London there are differences: 6 of the 32 boroughs have experienced price falls since 2007, all of which have the lowest house prices and all of which are in outer London. If current trends continue the gap in house prices between London and the rest of the country will continue to widen. 7

9 Areas with the biggest fall in house prices, November October 2013 Area Region Price change (%) Price change ( ) House price (2013) 1 Blaenau Gwent Wales % - 44,076 48, Hartlepool North East % - 44,191 61, Knowsley North West % - 47,313 83, Blackpool North West % - 39,079 74, Liverpool North West % - 41,159 83, Durham North East % - 37,252 79, Wolverhampton West Midlands % - 40,124 88, St Helens North West % - 39,829 88, Blackburn with North West % - 30,035 70, Darwen 10 Merseyside North West % - 37,638 97, Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data Areas with the biggest increases in house prices, November October 2013 Area Region Price change (%) Price change ( ) House price (2013) 1 City of Westminster London 43.20% 260, , Kensington and Chelsea London 42.80% 350,904 1,171, Hackney London 35.60% 129, , Islington London 27.60% 121, , Camden London 26.90% 143, , Hammersmith and London 25.80% 130, , Fulham 7 Wandsworth London 24.60% 97, , Lambeth London 22.20% 79, , Southwark London 19.80% 72, , Haringey London 16.80% 59, , Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 8

10 The great house price divide 9

11 The great house price divide House prices in England and Wales When it comes to house prices, Britain is a divided nation. The average house price in England and Wales is 166,000. In the North East it is below 100,000 and in London it is four times higher (just under 400,000). This divide has worsened since the recession. Average house price, October 2013 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 10

12 House prices in England and Wales, October 2013 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 11

13 Over the longer term London s house prices have risen even more dramatically, leaving the rest of the country adrift. Importantly it is not just the proportional gap in prices between London and England and Wales which has risen from 1.5 times to 2.4 times, but also the absolute amount. For example, the gap was around 31,000 in 1995 today it now stands at 225,000. Average house prices in England and Wales and London, 1995 and 2012 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data If current trends continue the gap in house prices between London and the rest of the country will continue to widen. By 2020 London house prices could conceivably be 3 times the average prices in England and Wales. 12

14 House price boom and bust The narrative of another house price boom is a tale of one city. In all areas of the country apart from London values are down on their peak of And in all regions outside the greater South East of England price falls have been greater than the national average. In the Midlands (East and West) prices are down by around 15% and in the North East by almost 25%. Worryingly for some areas prices are continuing to fall. It also worth noting that inflation between November 2007 and May 2013 stood at 20.5% meaning that the real terms falls have been more extreme than are presented in this paper. 2 An unbalanced housing market undermines national productivity and competiveness by making it extremely difficult (and expensive) for people to move for work from low costs housing areas to high cost housing areas. A widening housing price divide also exacerbates income and wealth inequalities between places and constrains local and national efforts to rebalance the economy. Investors are wary of investing in places where house values are flat or falling. Overseas investment in particular is attracted to high value markets in London, raising the risk of a speculative housing bubble which would be damaging to the economy. Change in house prices (%) November 2007 October 2013 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 1 Peak values are set at November 2007 when they were highest in England and Wales rather than for each area. 2 ONS, Consumer Price Index 13

15 Change in house prices (%) November 2007 October 2013 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 14

16 A further illustration of the widening gap is presented below, with the price differential in the lowest area versus the highest area jumping from around 10 times more expensive to almost 25 times more expensive. This widening gap is not just between areas with low property values, the differential between the median area and highest also rose during the period from 5 times to 8 times more expensive approaching the multiple observed for the lowest to highest average price in Gap between areas with highest, median and lowest average prices November 2007 and October 2013 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 15

17 Price changes in pounds Changes in prices affect the value of the asset a homeowner holds, and in a falling market will push some into negative equity. The average homeowner who bought at the peak in London will today be 40,000 richer even after a global recession. For someone in the North East they are 30,000 poorer. Across the country, the value of the average home is down by 15,000. Moreover, the picture is starker still when comparing places within these regions. In Hartlepool the average homeowner will have lost 44,000 since 2007 (or 41% of the value) whereas someone in Kensington and Chelsea would have seen prices rise 351,000 (a 43% rise). The profit alone would enable someone to buy almost six average priced properties in Hartlepool. The relative fall in the value of homes has long term implications in regional differences in regard to personal finance, not least inheritance, less capital to release for housing repairs and retirement, and a constraint on people s ability to move. Change in house prices ( ) November 2007 October 2013 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 16

18 Who benefits and by how much? As the graph makes clear, in general, areas with high house values in 2007 have seen rises over above their peak. The few areas (12%) which had prices above 300,000 in 2007 have seen average house prices rise since the recession. Those with relatively low average prices have seen falls. This is particularly noticeable at the extreme left of the graph, with prices down by as much as half of peak values. For those in poorer areas values have declined reducing the value of their asset; for homeowners in high demand areas values rose (and for non-homeowners in those areas housing has become even more expensive). In total, all of the areas with average prices above 278,000 in 2007 (15% of all areas) have experienced price rises, whereas in places with average prices below 278,000 just 5% experienced rises. As a consequence the gap between those with high value homes and those with average and low value homes has widened. House price changes ( ) November 2007 October Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data

19 The total value of the housing stock: the growing regional divide Since 2008, the value of England and Wales housing stock has declined. However, once again the picture varies greatly between regions. The value of housing stock in London has increased by 140 billion. In England and Wales it has fallen by 203 billion (and by 343 billion excluding London). In 2007 London s share of England and Wales property wealth was 20%. Within five years it had increased to 24%. London and the South East combined account for 44% of the total. In total London s 3.4 million homes are worth 1.3 times the value of the 6.9 million homes in the North East, Wales, East Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber. Total value of housing stock ( bn) 2008 Value 2013 Value Change Percent of England and Wales total (2007) Percent of England and Wales total (2013) London 983 1, % 24.3% South East % 19.7% East % 11.0% South West % 10.2% North West % 8.7% West Midlands % 7.3% Yorkshire and the % 6.4% Humber East Midlands % 5.8% Wales % 3.8% North East % 2.8% Total 4,825 4, % 100% Total (excluding 3,842 3, London) Source: Smith Institute analysis based on research by Savills 18

20 A divided Britain: London and the North East The picture of house price changes is starkly illustrated in the figure below. Both the North East and London were equally affected by the downturn. However since then house prices in the two regions have diverged. Prices in the North East from early 2009 stabilised (and grew a little) until around the time of the general election and have since fallen further. In London prices rose returning to their peak in 2012, and since then have risen by 12%. House price change, (Novemver 2007=100) Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 19

21 Falling house prices since 2010 Since the general election in most regions average homeowners have experienced further falls in the value of their home. In the North East, North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, the East Midlands, West Midlands, Wales and the South West prices have fallen. Whilst prices have risen slightly in England and Wales (by 1.1%), as a whole this is a largely a result of 17% growth in London. House prices since May 2010 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 20

22 A tale of one (inner) city Average house prices in London have historically been higher than the rest of the UK. In 2007 average house prices in London were 1.9 times prices in England and Wales as a whole. In 2010 it was 2 times. And by 2013 the gap had risen to 2.4 times. The average house price in London is 390,000 and in Kensington and Chelsea it is 1.2 million. Over the period average prices rose by 350,000 in Kensington and Chelsea, over double the average cost of a house in the UK. This is in part due to high levels of overseas investment in London s prime property market. 1 Moreover, sales in England and Wales have dropped by 25% over the period but by just 3% in the nine inner London boroughs with the highest house price growth. But within London there have also been differences the average house price in Barking and Dagenham is now 228,000. Moreover six of the 32 boroughs saw decreases all of which have the lowest average values in London, and all in outer London. House prices in London, October 2013 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 1 Heywood, A London for sale? (Smith Institute, 2012) 21

23 House price change in London November 2007 October 2013 Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 22

24 Ranking of average house prices by local area November 2007 October 2013 Price change (%) Price change ( ) House price (2013) Blaenau Gwent % - 44,076 48, Hartlepool % - 44,191 61, Knowsley % - 47,313 83, Blackpool % - 39,079 74, Liverpool % - 41,159 83, Durham % - 37,252 79, Wolverhampton % - 40,124 88, St Helens % - 39,829 88, Blackburn with % - 30,035 70, Darwen Merseyside % - 37,638 97, Middlesbrough % - 28,111 75, Stoke-on-Trent % - 24,112 66, Sunderland % - 29,861 82, Stockton-on-Tees % - 35,101 98, Halton % - 33,051 94, Bradford % - 32,536 93, Wigan % - 30,778 88, Sefton % - 38, , Lancashire % - 34, , Sandwell % - 29,737 91, Barnsley % - 27,675 87, North % - 29,604 93, Lincolnshire Torfaen % - 29,665 95, Northumberland % - 36, , Wakefield % - 32, , Rochdale % - 26,690 89,

25 Neath Port Talbot % - 25,167 85, Darlington % - 28, , Torbay % - 37, , Oldham % - 23,569 85, Rotherham % - 26,955 98, Wirral % - 30, , City of % - 29, , Peterborough West Yorkshire % - 29, , City of % - 21,568 81, Nottingham Flintshire % - 30, , Swansea % - 27, , Gateshead % - 24,196 92, Rhondda Cynon % - 19,346 73, Taff Gwynedd % - 32, , Newcastle upon % - 28, , Tyne Tameside % - 24,917 96, Kirklees % - 28, , Bolton % - 23,511 92, Leeds % - 30, , South Yorkshire % - 25, , Tyne and Wear % - 25, , South Tyneside % - 24, , Doncaster % - 22,707 95, Wrekin % - 28, , Walsall % - 24, , Sheffield % - 25, , Conwy % - 28, ,

26 Cheshire West and % - 33, , Chester Lincolnshire % - 27, , City of Derby % - 23, , Isle of Anglesey % - 29, , Wrexham % - 25, , Bury % - 23, , Leicester % - 21, , Greater Manchester % - 21, , Newport % - 23, , Salford % - 18,672 94, North East % - 17,193 86, Lincolnshire East Riding of % - 25, , Yorkshire Bridgend % - 22, , Denbighshire % - 21, , Medway % - 25, , Carmarthenshire % - 20, , West Midlands % - 20, , Staffordshire % - 22, , Luton % - 22, , Caerphilly % - 17, , City of Kingston % - 13,190 75, Upon Hull Swindon % - 22, , Birmingham % - 19, , Calderdale % - 16,735 99, Redcar and % - 18, , Cleveland Cheshire East % - 24, , Nottinghamshire % - 19, ,

27 Dudley % - 19, , City of Plymouth % - 20, , North Yorkshire % - 26, , Cardiff % - 22, , South % - 28, , Gloucestershire Somerset % - 25, , Powys % - 22, , Northamptonshire % - 21, , Warrington % - 21, , North Tyneside % - 18, , Portsmouth % - 21, , Warwickshire % - 23, , Leicestershire % - 22, , Cumbria % - 18, , Pembrokeshire % - 22, , Cornwall % - 26, , Stockport % - 20, , Merthyr Tydfil % - 10,591 74, Shropshire % - 22, , Worcestershire % - 22, , Southend-on-Sea % - 20, , Thurrock % - 19, , Norfolk % - 19, , Suffolk % - 20, , Southampton % - 18, , Isle Of Wight % - 20, , Derbyshire % - 15, , Rutland % - 26, , Slough % - 20, , Herefordshire % - 21, , Trafford % - 20, ,

28 Bournemouth % - 19, , Milton Keynes % - 17, , Wiltshire % - 20, , Manchester -9.90% - 11, , North Somerset -9.80% - 19, , Barking and -9.10% - 22, , Dagenham Central Bedfordshire -8.90% - 17, , Kent -8.80% - 17, , Dorset -8.80% - 20, , Ceredigion -8.70% - 15, , Coventry -8.60% - 10, , Devon -8.40% - 17, , Newham -8.30% - 21, , East Sussex -8.20% - 16, , Gloucestershire -8.20% - 16, , Poole -7.30% - 16, , The Vale of -7.10% - 13, , Glamorgan Essex -6.60% - 13, , Bedford -6.40% - 11, , City of Bristol -6.20% - 11, , Havering -6.10% - 16, , West Sussex -5.60% - 12, , Bexley -5.20% - 13, , Cambridgeshire -5.10% - 10, , Reading -4.30% - 9, , Hampshire -4.30% - 9, , Croydon -3.80% - 10, , West Berkshire -3.20% - 8, , Enfield -2.30% - 6, ,

29 Bath and North East -1.70% - 4, , Somerset York -1.40% - 2, , Buckinghamshire -0.80% - 2, , Solihull -0.50% - 1, , Oxfordshire 0.30% , Sutton 1.10% 2, , Bracknell Forest 1.40% 3, , Monmouthshire 1.60% 3, , Brighton and Hove 2.40% 5, , Wokingham 2.80% 7, , Hillingdon 2.90% 8, , Surrey 3.20% 9, , Windsor and 3.50% 11, , Maidenhead Greenwich 4.00% 11, , Harrow 4.30% 12, , Kingston upon 4.70% 15, , Thames Waltham Forest 4.70% 12, , Hertfordshire 4.80% 11, , Hounslow 5.70% 16, , Redbridge 5.80% 17, , Bromley 6.60% 20, , Brent 7.50% 23, , Tower Hamlets 8.10% 30, , Barnet 10.10% 35, , Greater London 11.80% 41, , Lewisham 12.00% 33, , Merton 13.20% 45, , Ealing 14.00% 46, ,

30 Richmond upon 15.90% 70, , Thames Haringey 16.80% 59, , Southwark 19.80% 72, , Lambeth 22.20% 79, , Wandsworth 24.60% 97, , Hammersmith and 25.80% 130, , Fulham Camden 26.90% 143, , Islington 27.60% 121, , Hackney 35.60% 129, , Kensington and 42.80% 350,904 1,171, Chelsea City of Westminster 43.20% 260, , Source: Smith Institute analysis of HM Land Registry data 29

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