General Summary of the Ten County Rural Nevada Area Housing Demand Market Analysis

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1 General Summary of the Ten County Rural Nevada Area Housing Demand Market Analysis of Churchill, Elko, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lyon, Nye [Northern Area], Pershing, Storey and White Pine for Nevada Rural Housing Authority (NRHA) 3695 Desatoya Drive Carson City, Nevada Effective Date January 22, 2014 Revised August 1, 2014 Final Report October 15, 2014 Job Reference Number 9171JB

2 Executive Summary Vogt Santer Insights, Ltd. (VSI), a national real estate market research firm based in Columbus, Ohio, has completed a housing assessment of various affordable and workforce housing initiatives in the ten-county, rural Nevada area that includes Churchill, Elko, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lyon, Nye (Northern Nye), Pershing, Storey and White Pine counties. The individual counties are referred to as the Study Areas in this evaluation. The following map illustrates the locations of the ten counties analyzed in this rural Nevada housing assessment. This report, which considers housing data collected in the subject counties in mid- to late 2013 and early 2014, identifies and qualifies the potential demand for various market-rate, affordable and workforce housing alternatives that could be developed in the selected rural counties throughout Nevada both today and projected into the future and based upon the anticipated growth of area industry. The following map identifies the main communities within the ten county rural Nevada study area. 1

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4 Residential Development Options Five conceptual unit designs have been considered for future development purposes. These units will be utilized to assess meeting new housing construction needs within each market. The units being considered for potential development within the rural Nevada markets include three garden/flat apartment units in two-story walk-up buildings, a three-bedroom two-story townhouse with attached garage and a threebedroom single-family home with two-car attached garage. Following is a summary of the proposed new construction development options considered: Unit Style Square Feet Building Style One-bedroom/1.0-bath Garden/Flat or 8-unit Walkup Two-bedroom/2.0-bath Garden/Flat or 8-unit Walkup Three-bedroom/2.0-bath Garden/Flat 1, or 8-unit Walkup Three-bedroom/2.5-bath Townhouse 1,524 3-unit Two-story Three-bedroom/2.0-bath Ranch 1,610 Single-family w/2-car attached garage The square footage of the concept units has been placed on the high side of the equation for analyzing future housing production and development cost purposes. However, the final analysis with respect to each county identifies the current size of any new construction initiatives that may be occurring in each specific area relative to the type of conceptual housing model used in this analysis. Accordingly, the cost of any new housing construction/development initiatives would have to consider unit size when pricing those housing products in each area. This will most likely become a critical aspect of any new housing construction when contemplating and dealing with establishing affordable housing alternatives for these rural communities. Based on our evaluation, the subject floor plans and subject buildings appear to be appropriate for development in most of the rural Nevada markets. The proposed developments are expected to be among the highest quality, most attractive housing in each market where developed. Proposed amenities will enhance any proposed project s overall marketability. The following is a summary of the report. Additional detail supporting can be found in the full report. 3

5 Demographic Overview The county seat of Nye County is Tonopah, located approximately 165 miles northwest from Pahrump in the northern area of the county. Due to the distance from Pahrump, and the market difference of the north area of the county, we have established three market areas, South Nye County (the Pahrump area), Southeast Nye County (the Beatty area) and Northern Nye County (the Tonopah and Northern Nye County area in General). This housing demand assessment concentrates on the Northern Nye County area due to the rural nature of the area, anticipated job growth and the ongoing shortage of housing. The following tables rank the ten study area counties based on the 2013 estimate for the four demographic categories: Demographic Comparisons 2013 Estimates Population Households Lyon 52,435 Lyon 19,963 Elko 50,237 Elko 17,886 Churchill 24,974 Churchill 9,711 Humboldt 17,090 Humboldt 6,437 White Pine 10,207 White Pine 3,771 Pershing 6,820 Pershing 2,021 Lander 6,050 Lander 2,294 Northern Nye 4,770 Northern Nye 1,983 Storey 4,083 Storey 1,775 Eureka 2,085 Eureka 874 Median Household Income Median Home Value Lander $68,745 Elko $163,359 Elko $68,464 Humboldt $143,007 Eureka $61,174 Storey $129,,875 Storey $58,086 White Pine $125,921 Humboldt $57,494 Churchill $120,186 Pershing $53,833 Eureka $103,378 Churchill $49,606 Pershing $96,779 White Pine $45,643 Lyon $96,717 Lyon $37,628 Northern Nye $86,345 Northern Nye $36,631 Lander $78,889 Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights Nearly three-quarters of the state s population and a similar ratio of households are in Clark County, which contains the Las Vegas Paradise metropolitan area. The Las Vegas area includes three of Nevada s four largest incorporated cities. 4

6 Household income is high in many of the study area counties. Eight of the ten have a median household income that is higher than the overall median household income of $45,164 (2013 estimate) for the state of Nevada. Median home values among the study area counties range from $78,889 to over $163,350. Compared to the statewide average, only two study area counties have a higher median home value. It is of note that the current median home value in several counties is down significantly from the 2010 Census, likely the result of the recent national recession. Area Employment Projections The projections of mining employment in the region are based primarily on countylevel output projections from Moody s Analytics, available on an annual basis through Translating these output projections to employment requires both deriving output per worker (productivity) currently and modeling productivity changes over the coming 30 years. The timing and impact of these disruptive changes are impossible to predict so none is assumed. If these occur, they are likely to increase labor productivity, so the projections in later years may be overstated. Modeling productivity growth is discussed in more detail below. Fully reflecting the impact of the growth of mining employment on workforce and housing demand also requires including the employment impact beyond mining itself. The expansion of mining operations will directly increase employment in the rural counties of Nevada. It will also create additional supplier demands for the goods and services of other businesses in the state. 5

7 Following is a summary of the data included in household projections for each county: County Allocation of Direct, Indirect, and Induced Employment for 2012 and 2025: Churchill Elko Eureka Humboldt Lander Lyon Nye Pershing Storey White Pine 2012 Total 896 4,503 5,111 2,753 2, , ,414 Less Than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, , $50,000 to $74, ,744 2,071 1, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Total 1,054 6,069 7,119 3,759 3, , ,946 Less than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, ,342 1, $50,000 to $74, ,435 2,972 1,537 1, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Source: Regionomics 6

8 Rental Market Characteristics The following table summarizes the projects, units and project type occupancy for each county based on our surveys: Rental Market Characteristics Market-rate Tax Credit Subsidized Tax Credit Government-Subsidized County Project Units % Occ. Project Units % Occ. Project Units % Occ. Project Units % Occ. Churchill % % % Elko 25 1, % % % % Eureka % % Humboldt % % % % Lander % % % Lyon % % % % Northern Nye % % Pershing % % % Storey % White Pine % Demand Calculations To calculate demand, we have considered new income-appropriate household growth, overcrowded and substandard housing in order to establish demand for new rental units in the short term. The following table outlines an estimate of short-term support for new rental units by county: Multifamily Units Senior Housing Units For-Sale Homes Housing Demand by Type for the Four (4) Year Period Covering 2015 thru 2018 County (Subsidized) 0% to 50% AMHI (Tax Credit) 41% to 60% AMHI (Market Rate) Greater than 60% AMHI (Subsidized) 0% to 50% AMHI (Tax Credit) 41% to 60% AMHI (Market Rate) (Single Family and/or Townhome Structures) Total Housing Units (Years 2015 thru 2018) Churchill Elko Eureka Humboldt * Lander Lyon Northern Nye Pershing Storey White Pine Totals: ,369 Footnote: * These units are presently in the planning stage with NRHA. 7

9 Overall housing need ranges from 23 units in Eureka County to over 370 housing units in Elko County over the next four-plus years. This demand summary includes both rental and for-sale housing needs. The rental units include subsidized, workforce/affordable and market-rate units and includes a variety of family/general occupancy as well as age-restricted. It is our opinion that this need can be met with redevelopment of existing projects, adaptive reuse, in-fill and new construction projects. Mixed-income developments targeting a variety of renters, including both general occupancy and older adult residents, provide an opportunity to meet some of each area s noted housing need. The following table summarizes rent and housing cost estimates for each county. This is based on the proposed concept homes and a comparison of estimated costs of development. Finally, the evaluation establishes whether current housing characteristics are sufficient for additional housing development. Following is a summary: Multifamily Market Rental Rates For-Sale Home Pricing (Average Market Rents for 1, 2 & 3 Bedroom Garden Style Units) (Sale Price for Median Sized Home situated on a 1/4 acre or smaller lot) County Average Unit Size (Sq. Ft.) Age of Home (in Years) Current Medain Collected Market Rent New Construction Rent Renter's Capacity to Achieve New Construction Rents (As of 2014) Percent Difference (New Construction to Renter Capacity) Average Home Size (Sq. Ft.) Age of Home (in Years) Current Median Sale Price New Construction Sale Price Homebuyer Capacity to Achieve Sale Price for New Construction (As of 2014) Percent Difference (New Construction to homebuyer Capacity) Churchill $570 $636 Sufficient 14.5% 1, $150,695 $231,974 Insufficient -3.1% Elko $769 $636 Sufficient 15.1% 1, $172,700 $256,075 Sufficient 17.0% Eureka $453 $820 Insufficient -6.3% 1, $119,210 $236,754 Insufficient -12.2% Humboldt $670 $799 Sufficient 4.5% 1, $154,200 $234,367 Sufficient 17.6% Lander $936 $725 Sufficient 13.2% 1, $133,385 $216,829 Sufficient 31.3% Lyon $642 $697 Insufficient -4.6% 1, $166,450 $248,203 Sufficient 15.2% Northern Nye $570 $655 Insufficient -7.1% 1, $108,565 $231,357 Sufficient 4.2% * Pershing $450 $653 Insufficient -11.3% 1, $140,872 $222,115 Sufficient 29.2% ** Storey $458 $655 Sufficient 0.7% 1, $174,225 $241,484 Sufficient 11.5% White Pine $548 $767 Insufficient -18.2% 1, $170,521 $217,739 Sufficient 7.2% Averages : $607 $ % 1, $149,082 $233, % * 1 Bedroom Units Only "Red" - depicts "Current pricing DOES NOT SUPPORT New Construction at this time" ** 1 & 2 Bedroom Units Only "Black" - depicts "Current pricing SUPPORTS New Construction at this time" Insufficient capacity does not preclude development within a community, it is a notice that current housing rents or sales prices are lower that the estimated costs with bring new rental or for-sale units to a specific area. 8

10 Community Overall Summary For residential quality of life items, we have assigned values from high to low depending on the existing opportunities within an area. Considering a one to 16 point (points awarded highest to least) rating for the individual communities, the overall rankings for the population, household, median household incomes and the estimated short-term (five-year) demand for workforce housing for the 16 selected communities. The residential services category was scored from two to 10 points, based on limited to excellent resident services availability. Following is a summary of the communities based on overall points: Population Households Median Income Residential Services Short-Term Affordable & Workforce Housing Demand* Estimated Maximum Demand Points Elko Winnemucca Fernley Fallon Carlin Battle Mountain Ely Tonopah West Wendover Virginia City Yerington Lovelock Wells Eureka Round Mountain/Hadley Austin *Excludes subsidized and market-rate housing need. Based on this evaluation, the top ranked communities represent the most favorable environments for development of new residential units. These evaluations will be further detailed when considering the depth of each market and the support potential of for rent and for sale housing alternatives within each community. Total Points 9

11 During the timeframe in which Vogt Santer Insights conducted its research, and since having completed its reports, a number of potential developments have come to light that we determined may, or may not, have an impact on study areas. For example, currently believed for development is a new Tesla Motors manufacturing facility east of Reno, incentives for the completion of the USA Parkway, a new biofuels plant and the potential expansion of the Apple data center. As of now, each of these specific initiatives, and others, lack some specifics regarding project locations, timing, capacities and secondary impact. As a result, the full effect of these types of projects on specific housing markets cannot be assessed at this time. While the potential development and implementation of these new projects may appear to be real, they may be years off at best and because the full impact of these projects has not yet been detailed nor realized, we determined not to include these potential events in our most recent demographic analysis. These types of projects, when they are developed, and how they become operational, will most likely impact several geographical areas over the next few years, while these initiatives alone may very well serve as the impetus for additional study within those to-be-recognized areas in the near future. These types of future studies may include updates to our present studies, as well as a number of site reports designed to identify the impact on housing in those areas specifically affected. Barriers to the Production of Affordable Housing There are barriers to affordable housing that exist in each of the rural Nevada counties, which are common in small to medium-sized communities. It is not unwillingness to engage in affordable housing development by either the public or the private sector, but rather the lack of resources required for successful developments. This resource deficiency tends to manifest itself around three categories: production capacity issues, financial challenges or cost impediments to the individual(s) in the household. Potential Strategies to Eliminate Affordability Barriers Most of the common barriers that impede the development of affordable housing do not exist today as an attempt to exclude a specific class of people. They are often unintended consequences that result from market forces or broad public policy decisions. There are many ways that the various municipalities could support additional affordable housing, as the three following categories describe. 10

12 Production Solutions Local government can assist by removing encumbrances and streamlining the regulatory process in order to accommodate affordable housing. Suggested actions include land donation, land banking, land trusts, building development capacity, inclusionary zoning, expediting permitting and revising impact fees if applicable. Cost to the Individual Solutions Even when great care has been taken to ensure that housing is made affordable, and some of the production and financial tactics described above have been applied, housing costs may still not be affordable to prospective occupants. Methodologies such as down payment assistance, closing costs, rental assistance, lease/purchase homes and addressing the affordability gap are designed to benefit the resident directly. Financial Solutions Over the years, several tools have been created that are considered mutually beneficial to individuals, municipalities and lenders. As it relates to affordable housing, the system can break down very quickly; if no one is occupying housing, the municipalities are not realizing their goals and the financial services industry becomes weaker since it is not engaging consumers in its product line. Each scenario is different, but one, or several, of the tools may need to be applied to help an affordable housing project come to fruition, including loans, grants, bond financing, tax incentives and utilization of non-profits/foundations. 11

13 General Information This section of the report provides an overview and housing demand analysis within rural Nevada. To gain a better perspective and understanding of the current housing trends and conditions in Nevada, national trends and dynamics were also examined. U.S. Population Growth, Household Growth and New Housing Supply As of Census 2010, there were million people in the United States, a 9.7% increase from the Census 2000 population of million. This follows an increase of 32.7 million people during the 1990s, which reflected an increase of 13.2%. Between 2000 and 2010, households within the U.S. increased by nearly 10.1 million, which represents a 9.6% increase. In comparison, the state of Nevada experienced a 35.1% increase in population between 2000 and 2010, from just less than 2.0 million to over 2.7 million. Within the ten county rural Nevada study area, which represented just less than 8% of the state s 2010 population, the combined area population increased 19.9% from 179,092 in 2000 to 214,673 in The decade from 2000 to 2010 saw the slowest household growth in U.S. history, averaging just under 1.0% annually. This sluggish growth was largely the effect of the national recession, which caused many households to double up and led to reduced immigration. (Note that overall population growth also was slow, averaging 0.9% annually, but, at that rate, it still was not as slow as in the period from ) Statewide, housing units in the state of Nevada increased 34.0% between 2000 and In the combined ten county rural Nevada study area, housing units increased 23.9%. The number of housing units increased from million units in 2000 to million units in 2010, an increase of 13.6%. This was the second highest decade of new housing increase over the past 40 years. In 2010, there were 1,006,250 housing units in the state. The rural Nevada study area included 81,808 housing units in The ten county study area represents 8.1% of the statewide total. General Information -1

14 The following table summarizes population and household growth compared to new housing production for the past four decades: Population Growth Population Growth vs. New Housing Production In the United States 1970 to s 1980s 1990s Million (11.4%) 22.7 Million (9.8%) 32.7 Million (13.2%) 27.3 Million (9.7%) 17.3 Million 12.6 Million 11.4 Million 10.1 Million (27.4%) (15.6%) (12.2%) (9.6%) Household Growth Number of New Housing Units Built 17 Million Units 14.8 Million 13.3 Million 15.8 Million Percent New Housing Units Represent of Population Growth 98.3% 117.5% 116.7% 156.4% Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights Over the past 30 years, there was a steady decline in the production of multifamily units in the United States between 1970 and Multifamily units are defined as buildings that have five of more units. While the 2000 to 2010 decade saw an increase in multifamily construction compared to the previous 10-year period, compared to the 1970s, national multifamily production was off by nearly 33%. This decrease in development of new multifamily units has severely impacted the supply of affordable housing throughout the country. This development trend also occurred in the rural Nevada study area; typically though at a more significant drop off in many areas. It is estimated that currently 24% of the national housing stock is multifamily. Just less than 30% of are housing throughout the state is multifamily. The following table summarizes new multifamily production in the U.S. since 1970: Multifamily Housing Production In the United States 1970 to 2010 Total Units Constructed s 1980s 1990s Million 4.2 Million 2.2 Million 3.4 Million 14.8 Million Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights Research shows that construction of multifamily units plunged to a nearly 20-year low during the recession, creating a supply shortfall. According to recent analysis, between 2008 and 2010, construction of multifamily units fell as much as 70% from its trend growth rate over the past decade. Although multifamily construction starts have increased since the beginning of 2010, the number of units under construction is estimated to be nearly 60% below the country s long-term average. Most of this new development is occurring in metropolitan areas. General Information -2

15 The normal rate of household formation, because of population growth, adult children moving out of parents homes, divorce and other demographic events, is approximately 1.2% annually, according to U.S. Census data. Over the last four years, however, the annual rate of growth of household formation has fallen to approximately 0.5%, as people who otherwise would have moved into rental or single-family housing are continuing to live with parents, other family members, friends or roommates. Some level of pent-up demand for new households normally forms during any economic recession. Research of 50 years of U.S. Census data indicates the current level of pent-up demand for new households is three times higher than it was at this point in the economic cycle in past recoveries, and the current level of unmet demand represents approximately 2 million households. Since economic growth remains measured, one might expect household formation to be limited going forward, particularly since there is also a natural tendency for population and household growth rates to ease as communities get bigger. However, there is some pent-up demand among households that would have formed earlier, but were constrained by economic circumstances. A stronger economy than is currently expected could increase household growth further. Given these factors, annual household growth seems likely to fall in the range of 1.0% to 1.2% (the latter figure is on a par with household formations from 1990 to 2000, when economic growth was strong) according to demographic projections. This would mean an additional 9.5 million to 12.5 million households from 2013 to 2020 throughout the country, or 1.2 million to 1.4 million annually. The bursting of the house price bubble led not only to greatly increased foreclosures, but to also some rethinking of the value of homeownership, at least for the present. As a result, the number of homeowners actually fell slightly in the past five years. With the for-sale market now recovering, that is not likely to continue. But the large number of young people now entering the housing market, combined with continued tight mortgage credit and households still cautious about home purchase, suggests that the renter share should be higher than in most postwar decades. A renter share of new households ranging from 40% to 60% is likely. This would put the homeownership rate in 2020 between 63.2% and 65.1%, compared with the 2012 average rate of 65.5% according to national sources. The increase in the number of all renters, whether in apartments, small multifamily buildings or single-family homes, would range from 3.8 million to 6.9 million. General Information -3

16 Apartments historically have been the residence of choice for about 45% of all households. In recent years, the apartment share has been lower because of the housing bust-induced increase in single-family rentals, as well as the lack of new apartment supply. Going forward, that share is likely to return to 45% nationally. However, in case this does not happen, and instead the apartment share of new renter households edges down to 40% of net new renters, that would mean an additional 1.5 million to 2.8 million apartment renter households over the rest of the decade, or an average net absorption of 190,000 to 355,000 apartments per year. Mining Industry/Nevada s Mineral Industry Per the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology MI-2011 publication, the most recent completed report, Nevada led the nation in the production of gold and barite and was the only state that produced magnesite, lithium and the specialty clays sepiolite and saponite. Other commodities mined and produced in Nevada in 2010, more or less in order of value, included copper, silver, construction aggregate (sand, gravel, and crushed stone, including limestone and dolomite), geothermal energy, petroleum, diatomite, molybdenum, gypsum, lime (produced from limestone and dolomite), cement (produced from limestone, clay, gypsum, and iron ore), silica (industrial sand), clays, perlite, iron ore, dimension stone, salt, semiprecious gemstones (turquoise and opal), and mercury (as a byproduct of gold and silver processing). As was the case in 2010, Nevada ranked first in the United States in value of overall nonfuel (excluding oil, gas, coal, uranium and geothermal) mineral production in 2011 (according to the U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2012). Nevada's production of gold, valued at $8.7 billion, accounted, for 74% of the U.S. total and helped again make the U.S. the third leading gold producer in the world in Nevada alone accounted for 6.4% of world production of gold. Second to gold in terms of Nevada's mineral value in 2011 was copper ($503 million), followed by silver ($251 million), chiefly as a byproduct or co-product of gold production. Construction aggregate ranked as the fourth leading mineral commodity in 2011, with a value of $180 million. Electrical power from geothermal energy production in Nevada in 2011 was valued at $153 million. The contributions that mining makes to the economies of Nevada and the U.S. are significant in terms of jobs, commerce, taxes, improvements to the infrastructure and lowering of the U.S. trade deficit. General Information -4

17 The mining industry, including oil, directly employed 16,177 people in 2011 according to the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation, and the industry is responsible for another 65,000 jobs related to providing the goods and services needed by the industry and its employees. Of these, companies directly employed 1,040 people in 2011 to carry out exploration for minerals and energy in Nevada, mainly for gold according to the MI-2011 report. The map on the following page shows the state and the study area and the following map illustrates mines, oil fields and geo-thermal power plants within Nevada from the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology. General Information -5

18 General Information -6

19 General Information -7

20 The following table summarizes metal mines, industrial minerals mines, oil fields and geo-thermal power plant facilities within the study area counties: County Metal Mines Industrial Minerals Mines Oil Fields Geothermal Power Plants Churchill Elko Eureka Humboldt Lander Lyon Nye Pershing Storey White Pine Source: Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology The following table details the major mines and milling operations (more than 50 local employees) within each of the study area counties: Mine/Mill Operator Commodity Type Activity Jerritt Canyon Mine Company/ Contract Employees Churchill County None with more than 50 employees Elko County Hollister Mine Rodeo Creek Gold & Great Basin Gold Gold & Silver UG Mining 192/67 Mining, Heap Leach, Milling & Meikle Mine Midas Mine Rossi Mine Source: Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology CIL Carbon-in-leach CIP Carbon-in-pulp HL Heap leach ML Mill OP Open-pit mine OS Other surface PL Placer UG Underground Yukon-Nevada Gold Gold, Silver & Mercury UG, ML & CIL Roasting 295/75 Barrick Goldstrike Mining, Milling & Mines Gold & Silver UG & ML Roasting 587 Newmont Mining Corp. Gold & Silver UG & ML Mining & Milling 276/58 BAROID/ Halliburton Energy Barite OP & ML Mining 55/98 General Information -8

21 Continued: Mine/Mill Operator Commodity Type Activity Betze/Post Mine Carlin North Genesis Carlin North Post Carlin South - South Barrick Goldstrike Mines Eureka County Gold OP, CIL, HL & ML Newmont Mining Corp. Gold OP, HL & ML Newmont Mining Corp. Gold OP, HL & ML Newmont Mining Corp. Gold OP, HL & ML Mining, Heap Leach, Milling & Company/ Contract Employees Roasting 1,046 Mining, Bioleaching, Heap Leach, Milling & Roasting Mining, Bioleaching, Heap Leach, Milling & Roasting Mining, Bioleaching, Heap Leach, Milling & Roasting Mining, Bioleaching, Heap Leach, Milling & 2,376/748 (Combined Carlin Operations) Combined Combined Carlin South - Gold Newmont Mining Corp. Gold OP, HL & ML Roasting Combined Barrick Goldstrike Heap Leach & Ruby Hill Mine Mines Gold & Silver UG & ML Milling 130/15 Humboldt County Mining & Heap Hycroft Mine Hycroft Resources Gold & Silver OP & HL Leach 260/1,700 Newmont Mining Flotation, Heap Lone Tree Mine Corp. Gold & Silver OP, HL & ML Leach & Milling 67/32 Mining, Heap Marigold Mine Goldcorp Gold & Silver OP, HL & ML Leach & Milling 293/20 Barrick Goldstrike Turquoise Ridge Mines Gold & Silver UG Mining 371/213 Newmont Mining Mining, Heap Twin Creeks Mine Corp. Gold & Silver OP, HL & ML Leach & Milling 629/131 Lander County 848/ 292 (Combined Cortez Operations Cortez Hills Open Pit Barrick Cortez Gold OP & ML Mining & Milling Cortez Pipeline Barrick Cortez Gold OP, HL & ML Mining & Milling Combined Greystone Mine M-I Swaco Gold OP & ML Mining & Gravity 52 Newmont Mining Mining & Phoenix Mine Corp. Gold & Silver OP, HL & ML Heap Leach 506/136 Source: Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology CIL Carbon-in-leach CIP Carbon-in-pulp HL Heap leach ML Mill OP Open-pit mine OS Other surface PL Placer UG Underground General Information -9

22 Continued: Mine/Mill Operator Commodity Type Activity Adams Gypsum Mine Nevada Cement Premier Chemicals Mine Round Mountain Mine Coeur Rochester Mine Colado Plant Florida Canyon Mine Standard Mine Clark Mill Art Wilson Co. Lyon County Gypsum & Limestone OP & ML Nevada Cement Co. Limestone & Clay ML Nye County Premier Chemicals LLC Magnesite OP & ML Round Mountain Gold Corp. Gold & Silver OP, HL & ML Pershing County Coeur Rochester, Inc. Silver & Gold OP, HL & ML EP Minerals, LLC Diatomite & Perlite ML Company/ Contract Employees Mining, Crushing, Grinding, Screening & Pelletizing 56 Crushing, Dry Milling & Rotary Kiln 80 Mining, Calcining & Sizing 95/1 Mining, Gravity, Heap Leach & Milling 733/194 Mining, Heap Leach & Milling 223/68 Drying, Classification, Grinding & Calcining /6 (Combined With Standard Mine) Florida Canyon Mining, Inc. Gold & Silver OP, HL & ML Mining, Heap Leach & Milling Florida Canyon Mining, Inc. Gold & Silver OP, HL & ML Heap Leach Combined Storey County EP Minerals, LLC Barrick Gold US, Bald Mountain Mine Inc. KGHM Robinson Mine International Ltd. Source: Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology CIL Carbon-in-leach CIP Carbon-in-pulp HL Heap leach ML Mill OP Open-pit mine OS Other surface PL Placer UG Underground Drying, Classification, Grinding & Calcining 53 Diatomite & Perlite ML White Pine County Gold, Silver & Mining, Heap Mercury OP, HL & ML Leach & Milling 378/200 Copper, Gold, Molybdenum OP & ML Mining & Milling 608 General Information -10

23 The mining industry has evolved dramatically from its early days in Nevada, from an industry requiring simple tools and often dangerous manual labor to a technical and mechanized business that requires a wide variety of employees who work in highly specialized and increasingly technical positions. Attracting qualified employees can be difficult, particularly when high commodity prices increase competition for employees to bring new operations online. The industry faces a labor shortage in the next five to ten years, as much of the current mining workforce nears retirement age. Studies by professional societies anticipate that approximately 50% percent of the current minerals and energy workforce in the United States will retire over the next decade. The rural location of many mining operations is also an obstacle to recruitment: small populations with limited skills make local recruitment difficult. Conversely, attracting employees from urban areas to rural operations can be complicated by limited housing, infrastructure and differences in quality of life. The cyclical nature of the industry complicates employee retention. Downturns sometimes require temporary or permanent site closures, causing employment to fluctuate with the commodity cycle. Consequently, some qualified individuals are deterred from seeking employment in the industry, and others who lose their positions may seek opportunities in other sectors. Long-Term Employment Projections 1 The projections of mining employment in the region are based primarily on countylevel output projections from Moody s Analytics, available on an annual basis through Indirect and induced employment, earnings and employment impacts can be estimated by applying an economic impact model to the direct output. The increase in output per worker over time implies that employment will grow at a slower rate than output over the long run. Further, because productivity growth differs from one industry to the next, employment multiplier impacts will also change over time. County-Specific Employment and Wage Distributions The employment projections obtained through the approach outlined above are not county-specific, so they must be localized. The Moody s Analytics output projections for metal ore mining are produced at the county level, so it is straightforward to apply the projected output per worker to these totals to obtain county-level employment. 1 The analysis described in this section and the description itself was provided by Bill LaFayette, Ph.D., owner of Regionomics, a Columbus, Ohio-based economic and workforce strategy firm. General Information -11

24 It is not likely that the industries supplying indirect goods and services to the industry will grow proportionally to the mining activity, however. Industries tend to cluster in locations where environmental and economic conditions are most favorable to their growth factors such as workforce, natural resources and the transportation infrastructure and serve the needs of multiple counties from these centralized locations. In order to model these growth patterns, indirect employment is assumed to grow proportionally to the current concentration of each industry sector across the individual counties of the region. Because induced employment is sustained by the needs of households, however, this employment is much more likely to grow proportionally to the direct mining employment; this is the assumption made in that case. General Information -12

25 County Allocation of Direct, Indirect and Induced Employment between 2012 and 2040: Churchill Elko Eureka Humboldt Lander Lyon Nye Pershing Storey White Pine 2012 Total 896 4,503 5,111 2,753 2, , ,414 Less Than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, , $50,000 to $74, ,744 2,071 1, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Total 994 5,117 5,833 3,133 2, , ,611 Less Than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, ,128 1, $50,000 to $74, ,982 2,363 1,239 1, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Total 1,035 5,804 6,771 3,588 3, , ,855 Less Than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, ,283 1, $50,000 to $74, ,318 2,816 1,461 1, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Source: Regionomics and Vogt Santer Insights General Information -13

26 County Allocation of Direct, Indirect and Induced Employment between 2012 and 2040: Churchill Elko Eureka Humboldt Lander Lyon Nye Pershing Storey White Pine 2025 Total 1,054 6,069 7,119 3,759 3, , ,946 Less than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, ,342 1, $50,000 to $74, ,435 2,972 1,537 1, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Total 1,098 6,456 7,610 4,007 3, ,551 1, ,077 Less Than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, ,429 1, $50,000 to $74, ,603 3,189 1,646 1, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Total 1,157 6,909 8,174 4,295 3, ,722 2, ,121 Less Than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, ,530 1, $50,000 to $74, ,797 3,438 1,771 1, ,067 1, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Source: Regionomics and Vogt Santer Insights General Information -14

27 County Allocation of Direct, Indirect and Induced Employment between 2012 and 2040: Churchill Elko Eureka Humboldt Lander Lyon Nye Pershing Storey White Pine 2040 Total 1,207 7,295 8,651 4,539 4,015 1,021 2,868 1, ,356 Less than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, ,616 1,921 1, $50,000 to $74, ,962 3,646 1,876 1, , $75,000 to $99, , $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200,000 & Over Source: Regionomics and Vogt Santer Insights Workforce recruitment, retention and development efforts are critical to ensure that the mining industry and other area major employers and employment centers continues to operate efficiently and to create economic value in Nevada. This is a major factor in studying the rural Nevada housing market in the ten county study. Following are individual demographic summaries of the ten study area counties. General Information -15

28 Churchill County County Seat: Fallon County Size: 5,023 square miles (4,929 square miles land; 294 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 23, Census 8, Census 24, Census 9,671 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 24, Estimated 9,711 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 24, Projected 9,633 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $40, Census $106, Census $51, Census $187,122 Change $10,942 Change $80,822 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $49, Estimated $120,186 Change $2,144 Change $66,936 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $47, Projected $133,394 Change $1,618 Change $13,208 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -16

29 Elko County County Seat: Elko County Size: 17,203 square miles (17,179 square miles land; 24 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 45, Census 15, Census 48, Census 17,442 Change ,527 Change ,804 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 50, Estimated 17,886 Change ,419 Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 52, Projected 18,957 Change ,289 Change ,071 Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $48, Census $106, Census $68, Census $177,997 Change $19,635 Change $71,797 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $68, Estimated $163,359 Change $446 Change $14,638 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $74, Projected $170,092 Change $6,015 Change $6,733 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -17

30 Eureka County County Seat: Eureka County Size: 4,180 square miles (4,176 square miles land; 4 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 1, Census Census 1, Census 836 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 2, Estimated 874 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 2, Projected 972 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $41, Census $65, Census $65, Census $ Change $24,014 Change $28,236 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $61, Estimated $103,378 Change $4,257 Change $9,542 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $61, Projected $109,483 Change ,015 Change $6,105 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -18

31 Humboldt County County Seat: Winnemucca County Size: 9,658 square miles (9,648 square miles land; 10 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 16, Census 5, Census 16, Census 6,289 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 17, Estimated 6,437 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 17, Projected 6,899 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $47, Census $93, Census $58, Census $138,467 Change $11,468 Change $45,267 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $57, Estimated $143,007 Change $1,121 Change $4,540 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $61, Projected $148,454 Change $4,369 Change $5,447 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -19

32 Lander County County Seat: Battle Mountain County Size: 5,519 square miles (5,494 square miles land; 25 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 5, Census 2, Census 5, Census 2,213 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 6, Estimated 2,294 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 6, Projected 2,455 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $46, Census $66, Census $67, Census $104,045 Change $21,166 Change $38,045 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $68, Estimated $78,889 Change $1,512 Change $25,156 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $75, Projected $85,653 Change ,401 Change $6,764 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -20

33 Lyon County County Seat: Yerington County Size: 2,046 square miles (1,994 square miles land; 22 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 34, Census 13, Census 51, Census 19,808 Change ,479 Change ,801 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 52, Estimated 19,963 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 53, Projected 20,335 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $40, Census $103, Census $49, Census $189,233 Change $8,752 Change $85,433 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $37, Estimated $96,717 Change $11,823 Change $92,516 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $33, Projected $107,675 Change $4,108 Change $10,958 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -21

34 Nye County County Seat: Tonopah County Size: 18,159 square miles (18,147 square miles land; 12 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 32, Census 13, Census 43, Census 18,014 Change ,421 Change ,703 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 44, Estimated 18,102 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 44, Projected 18,174 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $36, Census $96, Census $43, Census $165,573 Change $7,254 Change $69,273 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $28, Estimated $93,520 Change $14,405 Change $72,053 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $25, Projected $106,017 Change $3,802 Change $12,.497 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -22

35 Northern Nye County Submarket (Highlighted in Yellow) County Seat: Tonopah Submarket Size: 11,837 square miles (65.2% of Overall County) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 5, Census 2, Census 4, Census 1,970 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 4, Estimated 1,983 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 4, Projected 1,962 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census Census Census $52, Census $78,675 Change Change Percent Change Percent Change Estimated $36, Estimated $86,345 Change $15,398 Change $7,670 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $27, Projected $93,224 Change $8,910 Change $6,879 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -23

36 Pershing County County Seat: Lovelock County Size: 6,068 square miles (6,037 square miles land; 31 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 6, Census 1, Census 6, Census 2,018 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 6, Estimated 2,021 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 6, Projected 2,039 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $40, Census $79, Census $59, Census $135,360 Change $18,651 Change $55,860 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $53, Estimated $96,779 Change $5,488 Change $38,581 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $55, Projected $103,679 Change ,351 Change $6,900 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -24

37 Storey County County Seat: Virginia City County Size: 264 square miles (263 square miles land; 1 square mile water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 3, Census 1, Census 4, Census 1,742 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 4, Estimated 1,775 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 4, Projected 1,800 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $45, Census $122, Census $58, Census $266,440 Change $13,251 Change $144,040 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $58, Estimated $129,875 Change $655 Change $139,465 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $56, Projected $197,017 Change $1,108 Change $67,142 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -25

38 White Pine County County Seat: Ely County Size: 8,897 square miles (8,876 square miles land; 24 square miles water) Population Key Demographic Data Households 2000 Census 9, Census 3, Census 10, Census 3,707 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated 10, Estimated 3,771 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected 10, Projected 3,933 Change Change Percent Change % Percent Change % Median Household Income Median Home Value 2000 Census $45, Census $122, Census $48, Census $123,494 Change $2,524 Change $1,094 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2013 Estimated $45, Estimated $125,921 Change $2,371 Change $2,427 Percent Change % Percent Change % 2018 Projected $46, Projected $128,480 Change $424 Change $2,559 Percent Change % Percent Change % Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Vogt Santer Insights General Information -26

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