Wisconsin Agricultural. Land Prices. Ag Land Values up 4.0%

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1 Wisconsin Agricultural 2012 Land Prices Drought conditions, strong commodity prices and low interest rates combined to fuel another increase in Wisconsin agricultural land prices in While the year over year increase was modest, there was a strong uptick in average land values in the 4th quarter. Ag Land Values up 4.0%

2 Wisconsin Agricultural Land Prices A.J. Brannstrom 12 University of Wisconsin Center for Dairy Profitability March 2013 Average Wisconsin agricultural land values increased 4% in Unlike the double digit increases reported in other Midwestern states, Wisconsin s agricultural land values increased only modestly from the year before. This report is based upon data obtained from the Wisconsin Department of Revenue. Transfer return records are collected electronically for each real estate title transfer. Sales data from more than 5,900 bare ag land transfer returns were used in this paper. It summarizes the trends in large agricultural land sales for the period Only sales of bare land between non-related parties sold with warranty deeds or land contracts were used to compute land prices. All parcels were between 35 and 1200 acres and were assessed for agricultural use at the time of sale. Transactions with sales values less than $400/acre and more than $14,000/acre were excluded assuming they are not used for agricultural purposes. Sellers who retained property rights were also excluded as were parcels with reported water frontage. Finally, properties in cities or villages were excluded. The analysis is now based upon the year of title conveyance rather than the year of transfer recording. This correctly accounts for the few transactions which may have been agreed to in the past, but not recorded until years later. Unless otherwise noted, all reported sale prices are based upon weighted averages. The weighted average tends to reduce the influence of sales with unusually high or low sale prices. Weighted averages are computed by first summing the dollars paid for all sales and the total acres sold and then dividing the totals. For example if four 100-acre tracts sold for $2000/acre and a 5 th sold for $4000, but was only 50 acres - the weighted average would be ((400*$2,000)+(50*$4,000))/450 or $2,222/acre as opposed to the simple average of $2,400. Wisconsin agricultural land values have been increasing steadily for several years. From the average annual value increase was $113/acre. Some agricultural land has been purchased by investors, but most buyers are expanding farmers. Unlike stocks and bonds and land for development, ag land has been a relatively appealing investment in recent years. Location is an important determinant of value. In addition to the state-wide averages, land prices are computed for National Agricultural Statistics Service districts. The map (Figure 1.) displays the borders of the various National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) districts. Figure 1 NASS s Table 1 on the following page reports the number of sales, the acres exchanged and the average $/acre in each of the 1 Arlin Brannstrom is a Faculty Associate at the UW-Madison Center for Dairy Profitability and Secretary / Treasurer of the Wisconsin Chapter of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers. 2 This paper was reviewed by Dr. Mark Stephenson, Director, Center for Dairy Profitability and Mr. Tom Kriegl, UWEX Professor Emeritus. 1

3 nine NASS reporting districts. (Complete county listings are included in Appendix I.) It is important to note that these are weighted averages and that even within smaller regions there can be wide variations in the value of individual parcels. Although all tracts were assessed for agricultural purposes at the time of sale, the new owners may have plans to convert the land to alternative use in the future. The average price per acre for bare land was highest in East Central Wisconsin in 2012, but increasing competition for land has increased values all across the state. Count Acres $/Acre Count Acres $/Acre Count Acres $/Acre 1 NW 72 6,407 $1, ,594 $2, ,023 $1,933 2 NC 86 5,945 $1, ,646 $1, ,005 $2,021 3 NE 50 3,871 $2, ,864 $2, ,875 $2,986 4 WC ,484 $2, ,170 $3, ,312 $2,975 5 C 76 6,026 $2, ,971 $2, ,469 $2,568 6 EC 112 7,158 $3, ,007 $3, ,153 $4,099 7 SW ,715 $3, ,434 $3, ,996 $3,290 8 SC ,655 $4, ,838 $4, ,516 $4,113 9 SE 25 1,698 $5, ,673 $5, ,677 $5,321 Grand Total ,959 $2, ,197 $3, ,026 $3, Count Acres $/Acre Count Acres $/Acre Count Acres $/Acre 1 NW 92 6,474 $1, ,904 $1, ,742 $2,327 2 NC 85 6,152 $1, ,534 $1, ,776 $2,176 3 NE 56 4,449 $2, ,851 $2, ,301 $2,920 4 WC ,247 $2, ,480 $3, ,987 $3,246 5 C ,137 $2, ,281 $2, ,228 $2,887 6 EC 104 7,233 $3, ,890 $4, ,418 $5,228 7 SW ,596 $3, ,010 $3, ,580 $3,723 8 SC ,583 $4, ,471 $5, ,083 $4,916 9 SE 30 2,588 $5, ,361 $5, ,625 $5,006 Grand Total ,459 $3, ,782 $3, ,740 $3,602 Table 1. Average Wisconsin Bare Land Prices Figure 2 State-wide Ag Land Value Trends

4 The linear regression equation in the upper right hand corner of Figure 2 is able to explain nearly 90% of the change in land prices. In other words, starting with the 2007 state-wide average price/acre and adding $ would predict 89% of the annual change from While this equation has worked over this period of years, it should not be used to predict future land value trends since land values are affected by interest rates, commodity prices and other factors. The average price/acre increased nearly 20% in Northwest district and decreased nearly 11% in the Southeast district. The Southwest and East Central districts also experienced double digit increases in land values in The number of sales and volume of land sold in 2012 were nearly identical to the previous year. The West Central district sold the most acreage and the Southeast district sold the fewest acres. Land is typically transferred by either warranty deed or by land contract. Table 2 lists the weighted average bare land price by transaction type. It appears that warranty deeds are by far the most common, but a surprising number of land contracts were used in recent years even with historically low interest rates available from conventional lenders Row Labels Count Sum of To $/Acre Count Sum of To $/Acre Count Sum of To $/Acre Warranty Deed ,282 $2, ,002 $3, ,298 $3,169 Land Contract 83 5,972 $2, ,908 $3, ,379 $3,386 Grand Total ,254 $2, ,910 $3, ,677 $3, Row Labels Count Acres $/Acre Count Acres $/Acre Count Acres $/Acre Warranty Deed ,959 $3, ,743 $3, ,258 $3,608 Land Contract 100 8,500 $2, ,039 $3, ,482 $3,555 Grand Total ,459 $3, ,782 $3, ,740 $3,602 Table 2. State-wide weighted average $/Acre Warranty Deeds vs Land Contracts In this environment, the use of land contracts was most likely caused by one of two factors: 1) sellers seeking interest income by financing a land sale, or 2) buyers were unable to secure conventional financing. There does not appear to be a great deal of difference in sale prices based upon the way sellers convey title. Quarterly average sales prices and acres sold over the past six years are displayed in Figure 3 on the next page. The largest acreage was sold in the 4 th quarter in each of the past three years. There was a large spike in acreage sold in the 4 th quarter of More than 30,000 acres (or about 37% of the total land transferred in 2012) was sold in the 4 th quarter of In many cases, this was driven by potential capital gain and estate tax concerns. Recall that estate and capital gains tax rules were due to revert back to 2001 levels at year-end unless changed by Congress. Now that the estate tax rules have been settled, there may be less urgency to sell more land in

5 Does financing affect average prices paid? A financing code is included in each transfer return record. There are three common methods of financing land purchases: 1) conventional mortgages 2) seller financing and 3) cash no borrowing. Approximately half the transactions were financed with conventional mortgage financing, ten percent used seller financing and the remaining forty percent paid cash. These figures remained nearly constant over the past six years Sales $/Acre Sales $/Acre Sales $/Acre Sales $/Acre Sales $/Acre Sales $/Acre Conventional 456 $ 3, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3,785 Seller Finance 81 $ 2, $ 3, $ 3, $ 2, $ 3, $ 3,556 Cash 316 $ 2, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3,379 Grand Total 853 $ 2, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3, $ 3,604 Table 3. Average $/Acre by financing method reported Quarterly Values & Acres Sold Acres $/Ac Figure 3. Quarterly State Wide Agricultural Land Prices Figure 4 on the following page, contains the summary statistics for the 2012 bare land sales. The reported mean sales price of $3,290 is the arithmetic average of the individual transactions in other words, it is not weighted for the size of each sale. The histogram illustrates the skewed distribution of the data. While there were a few sales above $10,000 / acre, these are much less frequent than sales below $3,000/acre. The confidence range for the unweighted mean sale price was between $3,245 and $3,335. In other words there is a 95% likelihood that the unweighted average sale price / acre was between $3,245 and $3,335. 4

6 2012 Summary Statistics Bare Ag Land > 35 and < 1200 Acres A nderson-d arling N orm ality T est A -Squared P-Value < M ean StDev V ariance Skew ness Kurtosis N M inimum st Q uartile M edian rd Q uartile M aximum % C onfidence Interv al for M ean % C onfidence Interv al for M edian % Confidence Intervals 95% C onfidence Interv al for S td ev Mean Median Figure 4. Statistical Summary of Bare Land Sales for 2012 A small number of parcels sold for very high prices. The quartiles of the distribution are reported in the 3 rd box on the right in Figure 4. In 2012 one-fourth of the sales were below $2100 and another one-fourth of the sales were above $4023/acre. Many of the highest priced sales were in southern and southeastern Wisconsin where the pressures for development are most severe. Table 4. Average Bare Land Parcel Size (in acres) for Parcels > 35 and < 1200 Acres Avg Parcel Size (Acres) NW NC NE WC C EC SW SC SE Grand Total Table 4 lists the average bare land parcel size from The state-wide average parcel size for bare land sales has remained unchanged over this period. Note that in total, more than 125 square miles of bare land changed hands each of the past two years. While this may sound like a large number, it is actually much less than 1% of the state s agricultural land base. 5

7 25.00% % of Ag Acres Sold by 20.00% % % % % 1 NW 2 NC 3 NE 4 WC 5 C 6 EC 7 SW 8 SC 9 SE 2012 Figure 5. Relative % of Land Sold by Figure 5 displays the percentage of total land area sales by NASS between 2007 and Southeast and Northeast districts have had the least agricultural land sold. There has been a steady increase of land sales in the West Central and the South Central districts and a steady decrease in the land sales in the Southwest. The small acreage in Northeast Wisconsin reflects the larger amount of forest and recreation land in that area. Southeastern Wisconsin agricultural sales are very limited due to the large number of competing land uses. $7,000 $6,000 Ag Land Price/Acre by Region $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ 1 NW 2 NC 3 NE 4 WC 5 C 6 EC 7 SW 8 SC 9 SE Figure 6. Weighted Average Price / Acre by and Year Figure 6 is a bar chart of the weighted average sale price / acre within each of the nine statistical reporting districts of Wisconsin by year. Average land values have been increasing in most parts of the state, but the highest prices paid for land are in South Central, East Central and Southeastern Wisconsin. There have been very few bare land sales in Southeastern Wisconsin in recent years. This makes it difficult to gauge market value trends. Southeastern sales have observed the largest weighted average price decline in recent years as some of the development pressures have eased. 6

8 Land Values vs Rental Rates State-wide land rental rates are reported annually by NASS. Figure 8 combines the state average land values with reported average rental rates. Rental rates are highly variable. In recent years rental rates have averaged between 2.4 and 2.8% of average sale prices. Many more acres are rented than sold each year. Like our neighboring states, rental rates tend to lag behind land sale prices during periods of rising land values. Recent strong commodity prices will drive rental rates higher for Figure 7. Land Values & NASS Reported Rental Rates While the rate of cash return on average investment was low in 2012, it was still better than current CD rates. If the average cash rent is combined with the average land value increase, the returns to owning land look much better. Cash rental rates tend to lag behind land values during periods of strong commodity prices. With the historically good prices experienced in 2012, competition for rental acres will continue to be strong in Implications for Farmers Rising land values are a mixed blessing for established farmers. The appreciation in land value is only realized when the assets are sold. In most cases the ongoing business is neither directly responsible for nor directly benefited by changes in land values. High land values provide the retirement cushion for last generation farm businesses. However, high land prices make it more difficult for new entrants to get started without significant help from family members or other benefactors. Dairy farming in Southeastern, East Central and South Central Wisconsin is under great pressure from competing land uses. If the trend continues, dairy production will continue to shift away from these parts of Wisconsin. Dairy farming is a capital intensive business. A typical dairy cow consumes approximately 8 tons of forage and 100 bushels of grain each year. Manure management and nutrient balancing are a growing challenge. The typical Wisconsin dairy farm requires 2-3 acres of cropland to dispose of the nutrients generated by each dairy cow. In recent years the demands for rural real estate have made dairy farm acquisition and expansion very difficult. 7

9 Farmland use value assessment has greatly reduced the costs of holding agricultural real estate in the past decade. Record low interest rates and changing population demographics have also increased demands for open space. Expanding dairy businesses may need to rely on long term leases or manure trading arrangements to assure compliance with environmental regulations and land use constraints. Although dairy farming is well suited to the climate, topography and infrastructure of Wisconsin, the continued survival of a viable dairy industry depends upon access to affordable land resources. Few things are as illiquid as land. Unlike stocks, bonds and commodities, the actual value of real estate can only be estimated until a willing buyer and seller consummate a sale. At least in recent years, agricultural land has been a much better investment than many other alternatives. Appendix I contains a more detailed breakdown of real estate sale prices on a county by district basis for The reader is cautioned that limited numbers of sales in each county can cause wide variations from year to year, and the weighted average prices reported may not truly represent the local market. These figures should not substitute for an independent appraisal by a qualified professional. 8

10 Sales Acres $ / Acre Sales Acres $ / Acre Sales Acres $ / Acre Sales Acres $ / Acre Sales Acres $ / Acre Sales Acres $ / Acre 1 NW 72 6,407 $1, ,594 $2, ,023 $1, ,474 $1, ,904 $1, ,742 $2,327 BARRON 17 1,316 $1, ,489 $2, $1, ,022 $2, ,013 $2, ,486 $2,879 BAYFIELD $1, $1, $1, $1, $1, $1,055 BURNETT $1, $1, $1, $1, $1, $1,735 CHIPPEWA 20 1,825 $1, ,663 $2, ,043 $2, ,006 $1, ,131 $2, ,371 $2,703 DOUGLAS $1, $ $ $ $1, $845 POLK $3, $2, ,497 $2, $1, ,532 $2, ,762 $3,013 RUSK $1, $1, $1, $1, $1, ,039 $1,322 SAWYER $ $1, $1, $1, $1, $1,679 WASHBURN 1 70 $1, $1, $1, $1, $1, $1,693 2 NC 86 5,945 $1, ,646 $1, ,005 $2, ,152 $1, ,534 $1, ,776 $2,176 ASHLAND $3, $ $1, $1, $1, $497 CLARK 38 2,811 $1, ,059 $1, ,779 $1, ,796 $1, ,282 $1, ,210 $2,384 IRON $ $950 NA NA NA $1, $754 NA NA NA LINCOLN $1, $2, $ $1, $1, $1,472 MARATHON 36 2,463 $1, ,834 $2, ,641 $2, ,198 $2, ,361 $2, ,873 $2,635 ONEIDA NA NA NA $2, $1,140 NA NA NA NA NA NA $1,300 PRICE NA NA NA $1, $ $1, $1, $663 TAYLOR NA NA NA $1, $2, ,417 $1, $1, ,052 $1,668 VILAS 1 40 $2,875 NA NA NA $1, $2,105 NA NA NA NA NA NA 3 NE 50 3,871 $2, ,864 $2, ,875 $2, ,449 $2, ,851 $2, ,301 $2,920 FLORENCE 1 40 $1,425 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1 40 $1,525 NA NA NA NA NA NA FOREST 1 80 $1,000 NA NA NA $1, $1,000 NA NA NA $1,472 LANGLADE 6 1,137 $ ,002 $1, $2, $1, $1, $1,553 MARINETTE $2, ,010 $3, $1, $2, $2, $2,799 OCONTO 22 1,374 $2, ,075 $2, $3, ,188 $2, $2, ,011 $2,987 SHAWANO 17 1,077 $2, ,777 $2, ,503 $3, ,867 $2, ,383 $3, ,851 $3,433 4 WC ,484 $2, ,170 $3, ,312 $2, ,247 $2, ,480 $3, ,987 $3,246 BUFFALO $3, ,558 $3, $3, ,199 $3, ,396 $3, ,210 $3,229 DUNN 16 1,103 $2, ,613 $3, $2, ,385 $2, ,372 $3, ,117 $2,859 EAU CLAIRE $2, $3, $3, $4, ,119 $2, ,689 $3,059 JACKSON 16 1,172 $2, ,438 $2, ,025 $2, ,519 $2, ,460 $2, ,622 $3,294 LA CROSSE $2, $3, $3, $2, ,350 $3, $4,082 MONROE 20 1,180 $2, ,799 $2, ,627 $2, ,342 $2, ,547 $2, ,660 $2,393 PEPIN $4, $3, $3, $2, $3, $2,979 PIERCE 13 1,147 $3, ,947 $3, $3, ,750 $3, ,871 $3, ,824 $3,512 ST. CROIX $3, ,528 $3, ,251 $3, ,363 $3, ,975 $4, ,684 $4,110 TREMPEALEAU 23 2,447 $2, ,932 $3, ,479 $2, ,250 $2, ,984 $2, ,761 $2,861 5 C 76 6,026 $2, ,971 $2, ,469 $2, ,137 $2, ,281 $2, ,228 $2,887 ADAMS $2, $3, $3, ,856 $3, $2, $2,579 GREEN LAKE 12 1,222 $3, ,175 $3, $2, ,240 $4, $3, $2,989 JUNEAU 18 1,604 $2, ,454 $2, ,135 $2, $2, ,176 $2, ,090 $2,211 PORTAGE NA NA NA 22 1,571 $2, ,553 $2, ,366 $2, ,530 $2, $2,562 WAUPACA 19 1,082 $2, ,281 $3, $3, ,103 $3, ,005 $2, ,041 $3,634 WAUSHARA $2, ,342 $2, $2, ,464 $2, $2, $2,753 WOOD $1, ,637 $2, $2, ,180 $2, ,683 $2, ,153 $2,533 6 EC 112 7,158 $3, ,007 $3, ,153 $4, ,233 $3, ,890 $4, ,418 $5,228 BROWN $3, $4, $4, $5, $5, $7,470 CALUMET $3, $3, $4, $4, $6, $6,251 DOOR $4, $3, $3, $3, $3, $3,346 FOND DU LAC 21 1,540 $3, ,419 $4, ,360 $3, ,362 $4, ,840 $4, ,340 $5,373 KEWAUNEE $3, $3, $4, $3, $4, $4,674 MANITOWOC 23 1,353 $2, ,857 $3, ,096 $3, $3, ,609 $4, ,092 $5,234 MARQUETTE $2, $2, $2, $2, $2, $2,306 OUTAGAMIE $4, ,772 $5, ,163 $5, ,530 $3, ,380 $3, ,629 $5,401 SHEBOYGAN $3, $3, $3, $3, $6, ,354 $4,762 WINNEBAGO $3, $3, $2, $3, $4, $2,504 7 SW ,715 $3, ,434 $3, ,996 $3, ,596 $3, ,010 $3, ,580 $3,723 CRAWFORD 22 1,414 $2, ,076 $2, $2, ,223 $2, $2, $2,318 GRANT 39 3,879 $3, ,927 $3, ,833 $3, ,918 $3, ,799 $3, ,175 $3,513 IOWA 19 1,960 $3, ,614 $2, ,331 $3, ,209 $2, ,762 $3, ,320 $4,365 LAFAYETTE 27 2,271 $3, ,519 $4, ,883 $4, ,011 $4, ,672 $3, ,167 $5,245 RICHLAND 22 1,335 $2, $2, ,087 $2, ,862 $2, ,037 $2, ,118 $2,789 SAUK 28 1,772 $3, ,466 $3, ,148 $3, ,253 $2, $3, ,402 $3,367 VERNON 25 2,084 $2, ,848 $2, ,233 $2, ,120 $2, ,803 $3, ,493 $2,451 8 SC ,655 $4, ,838 $4, ,516 $4, ,583 $4, ,471 $5, ,083 $4,916 COLUMBIA 17 1,154 $3, ,714 $4, ,608 $3, ,670 $3, ,237 $4, ,662 $4,830 DANE 17 1,445 $5, ,216 $5, $4, ,703 $5, ,302 $6, ,945 $5,441 DODGE 26 2,134 $3, ,179 $4, ,519 $4, ,967 $3, ,731 $4, ,873 $5,209 GREEN 20 2,191 $3, ,262 $4, $3, ,913 $3, ,015 $4, ,152 $4,225 JEFFERSON $4, $4, ,077 $3, $3, ,463 $3, $5,066 ROCK 29 2,954 $4, ,039 $4, ,511 $4, ,761 $4, ,723 $6, $4,544 9 SE 25 1,698 $5, ,673 $5, ,677 $5, ,588 $5, ,361 $5, ,625 $5,006 KENOSHA NA NA NA 1 39 $5, $3, $7, $6, $4,465 OZAUKEE $6, $8,252 NA NA NA $4, $4, $5,367 RACINE $8, $3, $4, $3, $5, $4,518 WALWORTH 14 1,028 $5, $6, $6, ,284 $5, $6, $5,538 WASHINGTON $6, $5, $5, $4, $4, $5,301 WAUKESHA 1 40 $2,000 NA NA NA $4, $8, $5, $4,808 Grand Total ,959 $2, ,197 $3, ,026 $3, ,459 $3, ,782 $3, ,740 $3,602 Appendix I. Detailed County Ag Land Sales

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