2019 Economic & Market Forecast. REImagine October 11, 2018 Leslie Appleton-Young SVP & Chief Economist

Transcription

1 2019 Economic & Market Forecast REImagine October 11, 2018 Leslie Appleton-Young SVP & Chief Economist

2 2008

3 The CA Housing Market Recovery 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Equity Sales Short Sale REO Equity Sales (Aug 2018) = 98.4% Equity Sales Vs. Distressed Sales REO Sales (Aug 2018) = 0.9% Short Sales (Aug 2018) = 0.3% Note: Not including transactions in foreclosure. SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

4 2018

5 Assault on Homeownership

6 Homeownership Rates California Vs. U.S. 9.5% gap in % CA US 70% Peak: 69.0% 65% 64.5% 63.9% 60% 55% 50% 53.7% Peak: 60.2% 54.4% 45% SERIES: Homeownership Rates SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

7 CA: Ownership Rebound? 75 Homeownership Rate CA U.S.

8 Homeownership Varies Sharply by Ethnicity California Homeownership Rates by Race and Ethnicity ( Average) SERIES: Homeownership rate by ethnicity SOURCE: CA HCD, PolicyLink, USC Program for Environmental and Regional Equity

9 CA: Majority Renter State by 2025 California Homeownership Rate 70% 60% 57.1% 59.7% 56.1% 50% 47.3% 44.2% 40% 41.0% 30% Fast Slow Avearge SERIES: Homeownership Rate SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, C.A.R. projection

10 Hawthorne Glendale Los Angeles El Cajon Costa Mesa Burbank Santa Barbara Santa Clara Lynwood Alameda Santa Cruz Sunnyvale San Diego Sacramento Stockton Redwood City Westminster Compton San Mateo Palo Alto Redding Baldwin Park Lancaster Pittsburg Citrus Heights Carmichael San Leandro Chula Vista Daly City Newport Beach Whittier Visalia Hemet Concord Clovis Temecula San Marcos Lake Elsinore San Clemente Walnut Creek Fontana Hesperia Simi Valley Lakewood Livermore Castro Valley Menifee Yorba Linda 42 of 142 Big Cities ALREADY Majority Renter 2017 California Renter Rate by City 80% 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

11 Hawthorne Santa Monica East Los Angeles Glendale Inglewood San Francisco Los Angeles Bellflower Alhambra El Cajon Florence-Graham Oakland Costa Mesa Merced Long Beach Burbank Arden-Arcade Mountain View Santa Barbara El Monte Pasadena Santa Clara South Gate Chico Lynwood Berkeley Anaheim Alameda Salinas Santa Ana Santa Cruz Davis Madera Sunnyvale Irvine Tustin San Diego Fresno Lodi Sacramento San Bernardino Escondido Majority Renter Cities 2017 California Renter Rate by City 80% 76.0% 70% 60% 50.7% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

12 Where will our children live?

13 Izzy Come Back!

14 U.S. Economy Our Biggest Strength 4.2% 3.8% 2.2% GDP 2018-Q2 3.7% Consumption 2018-Q2 1.7% Core CPI August 2018 Unemployment September 2018 Job Growth September 2018

15 Employment: All-Time High 2.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Nonfarm Employment Growth California U.S. 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 Jan-00 Feb-01 Mar-02 Apr-03 May-04 Jun-05 Jul-06 Aug-07 Sep-08 Oct-09 Nov-10 Dec-11 Jan-13 Feb-14 Mar-15 Apr-16 May-17 Jun-18 California Nonfarm Employment

16 Jan-76 Mar-78 May-80 Jul-82 Sep-84 Nov-86 Jan-89 Mar-91 May-93 Jul-95 Sep-97 Nov-99 Jan-02 Mar-04 May-06 Jul-08 Sep-10 Nov-12 Jan-15 Mar-17 Unemployment Lowest in 40+ Years Unemployment Rate 14 California U.S Tulare 9.3% Merced Fresno Modesto Stanislaus Chico Monterey Los Angeles Solano Ventura San Diego Orange County Sonoma South Bay San Francisco 2.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

17 INDEX, 100=1985 September 2018: Consumer Confidence Highest in 18 Years SERIES: Consumer Confidence SOURCE: The Conference Board

18 Annual Percent Change Inflation Remains Low August 2018: All Items 2.7% YTY; Core +2.2% YTY All Items Core SERIES: Consumer Price Index SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Wild Card Financial Markets (Jan 2018 Oct 2018) (9/1/18 10/10/18) Down 831 pts SERIES: Dow 30 SOURCE: Yahoo Finance

20 30 Yr. FRM Hit 5%, 1 st Time since Early 2011 Oct 10: 5.00% SERIES: Average 30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage Rates SOURCE: Mortgage News Daily

21 Fed Has Raised rates 8x Since Dec January 2012 October 2018 MONTHLY WEEKLY FRM ARM Fed Funds Rate Fed Raise Rate the 1 st time since mid SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM, Fed Funds Rate (Target Rate) SOURCE: Freddie Mac, St. Louis Fed

22 Rates Rising Recently, but Keep Perspective Year Fixed Rate Mortgage SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM SOURCE: Freddie Mac

23 Higher Rates Hurt Affordabiity Q Median Price $596,730 20% Down-payment $3,200 $2,800 $2,400 $2,000 $2,013 MONTHLY MORTGAGE $2,711 $2,563 $2,279 $2,419 $2,144 $2,862 $3,017 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 Minimum Qualifying Income $118,614 $124,203$129,958 $107,956 $113,196 $141,936 $148,145 $135,871 $1,600 $80,000 $1,200 $60,000 $800 $40,000 $400 $20,000 $0 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% $0 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

24 II. California Housing Market

25 Market Off 2.1% YTD 4 Months of YTY Declines California, August 2018 Sales: 399,600 Units, -2.1% YTD, -6.6% YTY 700, , , , , , ,000 - Aug-17: 427,630 Aug-18: 399,600 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

26 Statewide Home Sales Off 5.5% YOY 20% Year-over-Year % Chg 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 11.8% Avg. year-over-year % chg. = -5.5% -10% Last 4+ consecutive mo. with decline: -15% Avg. year-over-year % chg. = -1.9% Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

27 Price Growth Also Slowing Down California, August 2018: $596,410, +0.8% MTM, +5.5% YTY $700,000 Peak: May-07 $594,530 $600,000 Aug-17: $565,320 Aug-18: $596,410 $500,000 $400,000 Trough: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

28 YTY% Chg. in Price Price Gains Slowing Across the State 50% 40% 30% Condo Single-Family Homes 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

29 YTY% Chg. in Price Price Gains Slowing Across the State 14% 12% Condo Single-Family Homes 10% 8% 6% 4% Decelerating Growth 2% 0% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

30 So Cal: Orange & SD Above Prior Peak Region Peak Month Peak Price Aug-18 %Chg Fr Peak Orange Jun-07 $775,420 $838, % San Diego May-06 $622,380 $660, % Los Angeles Sep-07 $625,812 $607, % So CA Jun-07 $589,710 $555, % Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $660, % Riverside Jun-06 $431,710 $400, % San Bernardino Aug-06 $350,290 $290, % SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

31 Central Coast: SC & SLO Region Peak Month Peak Price Aug-18 %Chg Fr Peak Santa Cruz Oct-07 $865,000 $917, % San Luis Obispo Oct-05 $619,950 $630, % Monterey Aug-07 $777,000 $599, % Santa Barbara Jul-07 $878,120 $572, % SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

32 Central Valley: All Below Prior Peak Region Peak Month Peak Price Aug-18 %Chg Fr Peak Sacramento County Aug-05 $394,450 $369, % Madera County Feb-08 $275,000 $254, % Placer County Aug-05 $527,990 $475, % Fresno County Jun-06 $313,500 $280, % San Joaquin County Jun-06 $426,830 $380, % Tulare County Dec-05 $269,710 $239, % Stanislaus County Sep-05 $370,100 $319, % San Benito County May-05 $671,190 $575, % Kings County Mar-06 $268,050 $227, % Merced County Oct-05 $344,610 $288, % Kern County Jun-06 $299,920 $247, % Glenn County Feb-07 $312,500 $225, % SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

33 Bay Area: All But Contra Costa & Solano Region Peak Month Peak Price Aug-18 %Chg Fr Peak San Francisco May-07 $972,010 $1,550, % Santa Clara Oct-07 $865,000 $1,295, % San Mateo Oct-07 $1,020,000 $1,500, % Alameda May-07 $709,420 $960, % Bay Area May-07 $789,250 $935, % Marin Jun-07 $1,149,390 $1,222, % Napa Jun-07 $729,170 $752, % Sonoma Jan-06 $650,330 $670, % Contra Costa May-07 $698,420 $650, % Solano Jun-07 $492,800 $455, % SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

34 III. Shift

35 CA Consumer Poll: Sept 2018 Do you think it's a good time to buy a home in California? Do you think it's a good time to sell a home in California? 78% 57% 43% 22% Yes No Yes No Do you think it's a good time to buy a home in California? (n=300) Do you think it's a good time to sell a home in California? (n=300) SERIES: 2018 Google Consumer Poll SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

36 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Inventory is Growing SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

37 Shift Started in January 2018; Tipped in April 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% % Active Listings in August 17.2% SERIES: Growth in Active Listings SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

38 Biggest Gains At Low End 9% 8% 7% 7.0% 8.0% Active Listings Growth 7.0% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2% 1% 0% Under $300K $300-$500K $ K $ K $1-1.5M $1.5-2M $2-$3M $3M + 0.5% 0.0% SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

39 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Discrepancies Point to Weaker Demand Where did the buyers go? 7.0% 8.0% 7.0% -7.3% -7.0% Sales vs. Active Listings Growth 10.2% 3.5% 2.9% 2.4% 0.9% 8.2% 0.5% 0.0% -1.1% 8.6% -15% -20% -25% -21.1% Under $300K $300-$500K $ K $ K $1-1.5M $1.5-2M $2-$3M $3M + Listings Sales

40 1/1/2005 7/1/2005 1/1/2006 7/1/2006 1/1/2007 7/1/2007 1/1/2008 7/1/2008 1/1/2009 7/1/2009 1/1/2010 7/1/2010 1/1/2011 7/1/2011 1/1/2012 7/1/2012 1/1/2013 7/1/2013 1/1/2014 7/1/2014 1/1/2015 7/1/2015 1/1/2016 7/1/2016 1/1/2017 7/1/2017 1/1/2018 7/1/2018 Listings Taking Longer to Sell 80 Median Time on Market (Days) SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

41 More Listings With Price Reductions 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Reduced-Price Listings 39.9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 20% 15% 10% 5% 4.3% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 Share Reduced Median Reduction 0% SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

42 Listing & Sale Prices Dropping > $1M 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% California $1M Homes: Sales vs. List Price Growth Typically 4-6 month lag -4.5% List Price Sales Price SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

43 State of the Housing Market - Study of Housing: Insight, Forecast, Trends (S.H.I.F.T)

44 Methodology C.A.R. has conducted the Annual Housing Market Survey since ed to a random sample of 30,355 REALTORS throughout CA Asked about their most recent transaction (Q2 2018). 1,492 valid survey responses, 4.9 percent response rate. The margin of error +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

45 Case Study: First-Time Buyer in San Francisco Buyer s Profile Age: 45 Marital Status: Married with dependents Income: $120,000 Down Payment: $150,000 Down Payment Source: Sales of personal assets (other than real property) Reason to Buy: Tired of Renting Have you looked into the housing market into the Bay Area? It is RIDICULOUSLY impossibly competitive. * Characteristics of Home Size: 1,200 sq. ft Property Type: Condominium Location: San Francisco County Price: $755,000 Finding a home I could afford [was the most difficult part of the process] the worst part about the buying process is that the list prices are fake. * *Quotes from first-time buyers from the 2018 State of the Consumer Report SERIES: 2018 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

46 First Time Buyers: Below LT Trend % First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average 50% 40% Long Run Average = 37.4% 34.8% 30% 20% 10% 0% SERIES: 2018 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

47 Affordability: Big Problem for First-Time Buyers Q: Primary reason for changing county? First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Housing affordability Quality of life Closer to family/relative Second home Job change Shorter commute to work/school Quality of school SERIES: 2018 Annual Housing Market Survey SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS Retired Quality of community services Other 18% 19% 14% 11% 12% 1% 12% 5% 7% 2% 5% 5% 5% 0% 7% 1% 1% 8% 18% 49%

48 International Buyers: Flat for 3 Years 9% 8% 8% The share of international buyers dropped to the lowest level in at least ten years 8% 7% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 0% Q. Was the buyer an international buyer a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.? SERIES: 2018 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

49 Case Study: Seller Leaving California Seller s Profile Age: 56 Marital Status: Married Couple with Dependents Income: $200,000 Yrs. Owned: 25 Net cash gain: $1,050,000 Reason for selling: Desired larger home State moving to: Utah We doubled the size of our house and lowered our mortgage payment. * Characteristics of Home Size: 1,948 sq. ft Property Type: Single-Family Home Location: Los Angeles County Price: $1,175,000 L.A would have been my first choice, and I didn t want to have to leave California. I couldn t afford to stay there * *Lopez, S. (2017) They re leaving California for Las Vegas for find middle-class life that eluded them. Los Angles Times, 3 December SERIES: 2018 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

50 Sellers Aren t Not Moving Years Owned Home Before Selling 11.5 Long-Time Homeowners are not moving as in the past because: Low rate on current mortgage Low property taxes Capital gains hit Where can I afford to go? Why not remodel and stay? SERIES: 2018 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

51 29% Of Sellers Moving Out of California Up 10% from 2013 Location of Seller s New Home Within the same county 38% 41% 37% 45% 47% 42% 49% 49% 46% 44% 44% 40% 38% 36% In another county in California 23% 18% 24% 17% 21% 21% 19% 18% 20% 21% 20% 21% 20% 21% In another state 31% 28% 29% 27% 19% 20% 20% 22% 19% 22% 22% 25% 28% 29% Out of US 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Don't Know/Not sure 7% 11% 9% 10% 12% 16% 10% 10% 15% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SERIES: 2018 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

52 IV. New Housing Supply

53 Permits: CA Not Building Enough 2017: 112,886 (55,779 sf, 57,107 mf ) f: 127,780 (64,900 sf, 62,880 mf) Single Family Multi-Family CA HCD Projected Housing Needs: ,000/yr SERIES: California New Housing Permits SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

54 CA: Less new housing per capita than other states ( ) Population Added 1,000 People Housing Units Added Number Ratio of Housing Units Added to Population Added Units per 1,000 People Arizona 1,101 Arizona 416,330 Arizona 378 Nevada 559 Nevada 202,332 Nevada 362 New York 1,090 New York 379,019 New York 348 Washington 1,142 Washington 374,157 Washington 328 Oregon 533 Oregon 174,466 Oregon 327 Texas 5,592 Texas 1,728,257 Texas 309 California 3,971 California 1,072,121 California % SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, C.A.R.

55 VI. What Are the Consequences?

56 1. CA is NOT Affordable

57 % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME Housing Affordability is Off Sharply 80% 70% California, Annual Quarterly 60% 50% 53% 40% 30% 20% 26% 10% 0% SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

58 Only Lassen County Beats US Affordability 2018-Q2: % able to purchase median-priced home SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

59 Least Affordable Metros are in CA Los Angeles San Diego San Jose Oxnard San Francisco Realtor.com 4/18/2018

60 2. CA is Home to Record Number of Homeless

61 #2: Largest Number of Homelessness Estimates of Homeless People By State, 2017 Top 5 State with Largest Increases ( ) California 16,136/13.7% New York 3,151/3.6% Oregon 715/5.4% Nevada 435/5.9% Texas 426/1.8% SERIES: Estimates of Homeless People in January 2017 SOURCE: The U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development

62 3. CA is Losing Workers to More Affordable States: Two Step

63 ~750K People Have Left Since California Net Domestic Migration -20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000-57,563-24,972-60,839-41, , , , , , , , , ,

64 Step 1: Coastal to Cheaper Markets Coastal Southern California Out Migration ( ) -19,854-21,935-34,217-40,361-42,503-48,609-65,534-79,132 Elsewhere in CA Another State -101, ,148 Santa Barbara Colorado Oregon Washington Kern Nevada (ST) Arizona Texas San Bernardino Riverside

65 Step 2: Pricing Prior Residents Out of State Inland Empire Out Migration ( ) -3,575-5,117-7,732-7,970-8,344 Elsewhere in CA Another State -10,604-10,680-10,699-16,374-17,859 Hawaii Colorado Nevada (ST) Idaho North Carolina Utah Georgia Kern County Arizona Texas

66 4. CA soon to be a majority renter state

67 New York California Nevada Hawaii Rhode Island Massachusetts Texas Oregon North Dakota Georgia Washington Colorado Florida New Jersey Arizona Arkansas Illinois Alaska Kansas Ohio Connecticut Louisiana Nebraska North Carolina New Mexico Maryland Tennessee Virginia Missouri Montana South Dakota Wisconsin Pennsylvania Oklahoma Idaho Alabama Delaware Indiana Iowa Kentucky Wyoming Maine Mississippi Utah Vermont New Hampshire Minnesota South Carolina Michigan West Virginia California: 2 nd lowest in nation 80% Homeownership Rate 70% 60% 54.4% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SERIES: Homeownership Rates SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau (Current Population Survey)

68 5. CA is pricing itself out of its future

69 Q: What needs to be done? A: Build More Housing

70 Lakewood CA 1950

71 Global Capitals Do Density #10 Shanghai #43 London #69 Paris #35 Rio de Janerio #27 Mexico City Source: citymayors.com

72 U.S. Cities Ranked by Density #90 Los Angeles #104 San Francisco/Oakland #107 San Jose #119 Honolulu #120 Las Vegas #121 Miami Global Ranking

73 The Forecast

74 What do YOU think?

75 Methodology survey to 866 members of the Board of Directors. There were 451 survey responses, equivalent to a response rate of 52.1%. The margin of error for this survey was ±3.2% at a 95% confidence level. Field dates: October 1-8, 2018 SERIES: 2018 Director s Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

76 One-Year Outlook There is risk to the upside 25% There is risk to the downside 38% The risk is balanced 37% Which choice best applies to your one-year outlook for California home values? (n=441) SERIES: 2018 Director s Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

77 5-Year Outlook: Directors more optimistic There is risk to the upside 17% 25% C.A.R. Directors Pulsenomics Experts There is risk to the downside 40% 55% The risk is balanced 28% 34% Which choice best applies to your five-year outlook for California home values? (C.A.R. n=437, Pulsenomics n=112) SERIES: 2018 Director s Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

78 2019 Sales Forecast? 37% 29% 27% 3% 4% Down down down Down slightly Flat Up slightly Up a lot What s your outlook for the number of transactions in California next year? (n=443) SERIES: 2018 Director s Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

79 When Will Market Conditions Shift? 30% 6% 5% 8% 8% 7% 27% 14% 13% 23% 28% 43% 6% 20% 18% C.A.R. Directors Pulsenomics West Pulsenomics United States 14% 10% 9% 6% 4% 1% 2% Shifted already Prior to year-end Sometime after 2022 When do you expect California housing market conditions to shift decidedly in favor of home buyers? (C.A.R. n=438, Pulsenomics US n= 98, West n=91) Never SERIES: 2018 Director s Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

80 Entry Level Home Price 25% 28% 16% 17% 5% 10% What is the price of an entry-level home in your market? (n=438) SERIES: 2018 Director s Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

81 Expected Rate for a 30-Year FRM 1 year: C.A.R. Directors: 5.25% Pulsenomics Experts: 5.00% At cycle peak: C.A.R. Directors: 6.00% Pulsenomics Experts: 5.25% The prevailing rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is What do you expect it to be One year from now? (C.A.R. n=425, Pulsenomics n=100) At the time you expect the current business cycle will reach its peak?(c.a.r. n=374, Pulsenomics n=94) SERIES: 2018 Director s Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

82 U.S. Economic Outlook p 2019f US GDP 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% 3.0% 2.4% Nonfarm Job Growth 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% Unemployment 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.7% CPI 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% Real Disposable Income, % Change -1.4% 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.8% 2.6% 30-Yr FRM 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

83 California Economic Outlook p 2019f Nonfarm Job Growth 3.0% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% Unemployment 8.9% 7.5% 6.2% 5.5% 4.8% 4.3% 4.3% CA Population (Million) Population Growth 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% Real Disposable Income, % Change -2.1% 5.6% 3.9% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 3.0% SERIES: CA Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

84 California Housing Market Outlook p 2019f SFH Resales (000s) % Change -5.9% -7.8% 7.0% 2.0% 1.5% -3.2% -3.3% Median Price ($000s) $407.2 $446.9 $476.3 $502.3 $538.0 $575.8 $593.4 % Change 27.5% 9.8% 6.6% 5.4% 7.2% 7.0% 3.1% Housing Affordability Index 36% 30% 31% 31% 29% 28% 25% 30-Yr FRM 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

85 Listings are up & prices are favorable for sellers Call frustrated potential buyers and tell them the good news Rates are rising don t wait Opportunities Provide sellers a teachable moment Know where people are moving and why and work your referral network Get involved in the political process this is your future

86 Read This: California s Housing Future

87