NEKILNOJAMOJO TURTO RINKOS STATISTIKA PINIGŲ IR FINANSINIO STABILUMO REIKMĖMS LIETUVOJE

Transcription

1 NEKILNOJAMOJO TURTO RINKOS STATISTIKA PINIGŲ IR FINANSINIO STABILUMO REIKMĖMS LIETUVOJE Rimantas Juozas Vaicenavičius Statistikos departamento direktorius Lietuvos bankas

2 Planas* 1. Ekonominiai ginčai nekilnojamojo turto (NT) vertinimuose 2. Naudojimo ir metodų įvairovė NT statistikoje 3. Dabartinė Lietuvos NT statistika ir svarstomi siūlymai 4. NT statistikos plėtros alternatyvios galimybės * 1, 2 dalys pateikiamos angliškai, o 3, 4 - lietuviškai.

3 1. Ekonominiai ginčai nekilnojamojo turto (NT) vertinimuose

4 Adam Smith on delineation of fixed investment A dwelling-house, as such, contributes nothing to the revenue of its inhabitant; and though it is, no doubt, extremely useful to him, it is as his clothes and household furniture are useful to him, which, however, make a part of his expense, and not of his revenue. If it is to be let to a tenant for rent, as the house itself can produce nothing, the tenant must always pay the rent out of some other revenue, which he derives, either from labour, or stock, or land.

5 Adam Smith on delineation of fixed investment Though a house, therefore, may yield a revenue to its proprietor, and thereby serve in the function of a capital to him, it cannot yield any to the public, nor serve in the function of a capital to it, and the revenue of the whole body of the people can never be in the smallest degree increased by it.

6 Adam Smith on delineation of fixed investment A stock of houses, well built and properly taken care of, may last many centuries. Though the period of their total consumption, however, is more distant, they are still as really a stock reserved for immediate consumption as either clothes or household furniture.

7 Current treatment or from the Smith age to the Stone age National accounts treat dwellings as a part of fixed capital The production of housing services for their own final consumption by owner occupiers has always been included within the production boundary in national accounts, although it constitutes an exception to the general exclusion of own-account service production. SNA 2008 The taxation authorities have always followed the Adam Smith s approach by applying VAT for REP sales

8 Treatment of OOH in selected countries, in 2008 EU countries Other User cost approach Sweden, UK* (Retail Price Index) Canada, Iceland Rental equivalence approach Net acquisition approach Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Cyprus, the Netherlands Finland (from 2006, including mortgage interest payments; price index for new flats approximated by index for old flats) Japan, Norway, Switzerland, US Australia, New Zealand Payments approach Ireland - Hybrid methods Exclusion of OOH Hungary, Slovakia (imputation of rental payments by referring to costs on repair, maintenance, construction material and services), Austria (payment approach for owner-occupied flats, expenditure for maintenance and major repair for owner-occupied houses) Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia - -

9 2. Naudojimo ir metodų įvairovė NT statistikoje

10 Uses of residential property price indices As direct measure of inflation or as an input into other price indices, most likely the CPI For monetary policy and inflation targeting As a financial stability or soundness indicator to measure risk exposure As a measurement of wealth As a deflator for national accounts. As an input insuring more efficient functioning of the market For administrative use, bargaining or indexation No single indicator of houses prices can satisfy multiple uses.

11 Financial stability analysis concentrates on Assessment of house price dynamics Construction of / investment into residential buildings Compilation of Housing Affordability Index Households and banks expectations about future prospects of real estate market Strongly expressed data need to asses supply side of the real estate market

12 Real estate statistics categories Residential property versus commercial property Prices and volumes Flows (including net flows) and stocks The real estate supply statistics and related leading indicators The real estate demand statistics (including affordability measures)

13 General agreement between central banks The current real estate statistics is insufficient for both monetary and financial stability issues There should be a starting point, but in different countries the starting points used to be and are different Unquestionably, the central bank has a role in it

14 Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices In 2008 Eurostat agreed to organize and finance the preparation of the handbook The handbook is expected to be finalized in 2011 The draft handbook is available for consultation and comments on Eurostat s webpage HRPPI has to provide best practices for compiling house price indices and aims to improve international comparability of RPPI. It will facilitate setting up house price indices where these are lacking and improving existing indices where necessary Eurostat commissioned a team of internationally recognized price statistics experts, led by Statistics Netherlands, to draft the handbook

15 Handbook on RPPI: weighting A stock-weighted index is appropriate when measuring the wealth associated with the ownership of residential property. A stock-weighted index is also appropriate for a financial stability indicator, in particularly to identify property price bubbles. A sales-weighted index is appropriate for measuring the real output of the residential real estate industry. This is consistent in treatment to the acquisition or purchase of goods and services in a consumer price index. A decomposition between the building & the land is an added complication, should be made where a country s balance sheet estimates of national wealth make this distinction. It may also be required when a residential property price index is an input into the CPI for the measurement of owner-occupier housing costs using the netacquisition approach

16 Handbook on RPPI: new property A price index covering new property only is appropriate for measuring the real output of the residential real estate industry The value of new housing is part of gross investment. The cost of the land, apart from the value of any improvements made to this element, should be excluded A price index restricted to new property is also appropriate for the inclusion of owner-occupier housing costs on a net-acquisition cost basis in a consumer price index, where the consumer price index covers the cost of acquiring properties which are new to the owner-occupier housing market

17 Handbook on RPPI: stratification Stratification or mix-adjustment : the most straightforward method for controlling for changes in the composition or quality mix of properties sold. It also addresses any user need for subindices relating to different housing market segments Stratification or mix-adjustment is an appropriate method where an appropriate level of detail is available Stratification/mix-adjustment is recommended where the volume of sales is large enough to support a detailed classification of properties

18 Handbook on RPPI: hedonic regression Hedonic regression: Simple concept - measures the empirical relationship between the observable attributes of a good or service e.g. a house & the price. There is no no uniformity in practical application or agreement on what is best practice. The best form of the hedonic function may be linear rather than log-linear what reflects the fact that the value of a property is generally equal to the sum of the price of the structure and the price of the land Hedonic regression is generally the best technique for constructing a constant quality residential property price index using the predicted prices (imputations) approach (stratified)

19 HRPPI: repeat sales Observes price development of a specific house over time by reference to selling price each time it is sold The price development of a representative selection of houses during overlapping time periods can then be used to measure trend in property prices Measuring the average price changes in repeat sales on same properties gives a like for like comparison Recommendation -repeat sales method is not preferred above the hedonic method for constructing a constant quality residential property price index, but methodology is satisfactory where there is limited or no information on housing characteristics There are a relatively large number of repeat transactions to provide enough data points to populate the required types of residences and where sample selection bias is not a problem Repeat sales method is not recommended when distinction needed between price of structure & price of land

20 3. Dabartinė Lietuvos NT statistika ir svarstomi siūlymai

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23 Ką atskleidė NT duomenys per dešimtmetį? Bankinė sistema buvo geriau pasiruošusi neigiamiems pokyčiams paskolų būstui segmente nei paskolų verslui rinkoje Duomenys rodo stiprų ryšį tarp kainos ir apimties raidos paskutinį dešimtmetį

24 Statistika, prieinama LB poreikiams Registrų centro skaičiuojami būsto kainų pokyčiai, kurie apima įregistruotų parduotų gyvenamųjų būstų vidutinės 1m 2 kainos ketvirčių pokyčius šalyje, Vilniuje, šalyje be Vilniaus, išskiriant naujus ir egzistavusius būstus bei butus ir namus. Duomenys skelbiami nuo 2005, pradedant 1998 m. IV ketv. Statistikos departamento skaičiuojami ketvirtiniai Owner occupied housing price index (OOHPI) ir House price index (HPI) pagal the Draft Technical Manual on Owner Occupied Housing for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Duomenys šiuo metu neprieinami, bus skelbiami nuo 2012, pradedant m. Nekilnojamojo turto agentūrų pateikiama: gyvenamojo ir komercinio nekilnojamojo turto pardavimo/nuomos kainos, apibendrinti butų kainų pokyčiai didžiausiuose Lietuvos miestuose. Mėnesių duomenys skelbiami nuo 2005, pradedant 1994 m.

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26 OHBI metodika Bazinis laikotarpis 1994 m., mėnesiniai duomenys Skelbiama nuo 2009 m. liepos mėn. Duomenų šaltiniai mišrūs: OH, kitų privačių institucijų, viešųjų institucijų Subindeksų svoriai nustatomi pagal esančių butų kiekį ir sudaromų sandorių skaičių geografiniuose segmentuose bei butų kokybines charakteristikas (plotas, amžius, baigtumas) Nors svorių sistema neatskleista, nurodoma, kad ji gali būti koreguojama Indeksai skelbiami atskirai penkiems didiesiems Lietuvos miestams

27 Nekilnojamojo turto rinka: naujo būsto pasiūlos statistika Naujo būsto pasiūlos statistika rengiama kai kuriose šalyse (JAV, Izraelis) Didžiausio nekilnojamojo turto kainų augimo metu (prieš tris metus) LB pabrėžė naujo būsto pasiūlos statistikos reikalingumą Bendra LB ir SD darbo grupė parengė Naujų butų pasiūlos ir pardavimo statistinio tyrimo metodiką Rodikliai naujų butų daugiabučiuose namuose pasiūla ir pardavimas pagal statybos etapus (statomi ir pastatyti butai), išskiriant Vilniaus apskritį parduodami nauji butai ataskaitinio ketvirčio pradžioje, parduoti nauji butai per ketvirtį, naujų butų pasiūlos padidėjimas arba sumažėjimas per ketvirtį, parduodami nauji butai ketvirčio pabaigoje Papildomi rodikliai vidutinės butų pardavimo ir siūlymo trukmės Per pastaruosius metus Statistikos departamento biudžetas sumažintas 20 procentų. Vyriausybė atidėjo Naujų butų pasiūlos ir pardavimo statistinio tyrimo įgyvendinimo teisinių aktų priėmimą

28 4. NT statistikos plėtros alternatyvios galimybės

29 Kokia nekilnojamojo turto rinkų statistikos ateitis centrinių bankų požiūriu? Ar esami būsto kainų indeksai informatyvūs ir pakankami centrinių bankų poreikiams? Ar centriniai bankai užtenkamai koordinuoja nekilnojamojo turto duomenų paklausą? Ar centriniai bankai žino kokie nekilnojamojo turto duomenys tinkamiausi jų poreikiams? Ar nacionalinės statistikos institucijos turi tiek aistros kiek centriniai bankai norėdami turėti sistemingus nekilnojamojo turto rinkos duomenis? Kas tinkamiausias koordinuoti visus NE?

30 Centrinių bankų siūlymų paletė Padėti įmonėms ir verslo asociacijoms rengti privačią statistiką (rizika - nedarnūs statistiniai duomenys) Padėti NSI įtikinti Vyriausybę ir Finansų ministeriją (baimė - padidinti biudžeto išlaidas 0,00... procento) Daugiau koordinuoti statistikos rengimą (rizika - papildomas biurokratijos didinimas) Patiems užtikrinti sudaromos statistikos integralumą ir suderinamumą (rizika CB įgaliojimų plėtimas) Rengti statistiką Centriniuose bankuose (rizika oficialiosios statistikos rengėjų atsakomybių balanso pasikeitimas)