European property recovery broadens across the region

Transcription

1 Q4 21 European property recovery broadens across the region Occupier market recovery broadens across Europe, with a knock-on effect on rental expectations However, fewer countries record a pickup in investment market activity in Q4 compared to Q3 and the generally experience the strongest pickup in their occupier markets, while on balance, and experience the strongest pickup in their investment markets The RICS Global Commercial Property Survey for Q4 suggests that, while there remains evidence that emerging markets are generally outperforming the more established markets, there are some notable cases where the divide is closing. Countries where respondents were most upbeat were, once again, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Brazil, though there were marked improvements in and. Market conditions generally appear worse in peripheral European regions, the and Japan. In Europe, there are continuing signs that the occupier market is recovering across the region; tenant demand is now rising in 15 of the countries covered by the survey compared to 14 in Q3. The stronger tone to demand is feeding through to rental expectations in an increasing number of markets, with 11 countries recording positive readings in this area, compared with only 6 in Q3. This suggests that oversupply of property within the region as a whole is becoming less of an issue than previously, with vacant space increasingly being absorbed. Broadly speaking, the strongest occupier market growth took place in and the. Interestingly, although the pace of occupier demand in was exceeded only by, rental expectations were barely positive. This suggests that in spite of the strong increase in occupier demand during Q4, the overall level of demand in was still not high enough to materially push up rents. Although the recovery in the occupier market broadened across the region during Q4, the opposite took place in the investment market; only 13 of the countries covered by the survey recording a rise in investment activity compared to 17 in Q3. This reversal has inevitably impacted capital value expectations, which are were positive in 1 markets during Q4 compared to 12 in Q3. Across the European occupier and investment markets, the sectors which experienced the broadest pickup during Q4 were the retail and office sectors, which were roughly on a par in terms of geographic spread. By contrast, the industrial sector picked up in the least number of countries. The Polish and n office markets stand out as performing particularly strongly during Q % net balance Rental expectations rents expected to rise 21 4th Qtr 211 1st Qtr US Japan Brazil India UAE HK China AUS % net balance 21 4th Qtr 211 1st Qtr Capital value expectations US Japan Brazil India UAE HK China AUS rents expected to fall capital values expected to rise capital values expected to fall RICS (press office) T +44() sthornton@rics.org RICS Asia Pacific T ricsasiapacific@rics.org RICS India T ricsindia@rics.org RICS Oceania T +61(2) info@rics.org.au RICS Americas T ricsamericas@rics.org RICS Middle East & Africa T +971(4) sluthria@rics.org RICS Europe Rue Ducale 67 / Hertogstraat 67 Brussels, T: F: ricseurope@rics.org To receive a free copy of this report on the day of release please ogilmartin@rics.org For live updates follow us on twitter at

2 Europe - key indicators Q4 21 CzechRepublic Scandinavia Republic of Ireland Capital value expectations Rent Expectations CzechRepublic Scandinavia Republic of Ireland Investment Activity Scandinavia Czech Republic Republic of Ireland Investment activity Tenant Demand CzechRepublic Scandinavia Republic of Ireland Tenant demand

3 Europe - key indicators Q4 21 Capital value expectations Rent Expectations Offices Industrial Retail Office Industrial Retail - Czech Rep. Rep. Ireland - Czech Rep. Rep. Ireland Investment Activity Tenant Demand Investment activity Tenant demand Office Industrial Retail Office Industrial Retail - Czech Rep. Rep. Ireland - Czech Rep. Rep. Ireland

4 focus Q4 21 Rent Expectations and Inducements Occupier demand and availability Inducements Occupier demand Availability Investment Demand & Number of Bidders Investment demand Number of bidders

5 focus Q4 21 Rent Expectations and Inducements Occupier demand and availability Inducements Occupier demand Availability Investment Demand & Number of Bidders Investment demand Number of bidders

6 Q4 21 focus Rent Expectations and Inducements Occupier demand and availability Inducements Occupier demand Availability Investment Demand & Number of Bidders Investment demand Number of bidders

7 Survey methodology Q4 21 RICS Global Commercial Property Survey RICS Global Commercial Property Survey is a quarterly guide to the developing trends in the commercial property investment and occupier market. This edition details market conditions for the fourth quarter of 21 based on information collected from leading international real estate organisations and local firms. Methodology Survey questionnaires were sent to real estate organisations on 3 rd December 21, with responses received up until the 1 th of January 211. Respondents were asked to compare conditions over the latest three months with the previous three months. A total of 41 company responses were received. Responses have been amalgamated across the three real estate sub-sectors of offices, retail and industrial property at a country level, to form diffusion indices for the commercial market as a whole. Contact details This publication has been produced by RICS Economics. For economic and statistical enquiries regarding this publication, please contact: Matthew Edmonds RICS Economist T +44 () E medmonds@rics.org Oliver Gilmartin RICS Senior Economist T +44 () E ogilmartin@rics.org Taking part in the RICS Global Property Survey If you wish to participate in the quarterly survey, please jguilfoyle@rics.org to register your details. Please provide your name, company details and the location(s) you wish to cover within the or register online at RICS Global Commercial Property Survey Disclaimer This document is intended as a means for debate and discussion and should not be relied on as legal or professional advice. Whilst every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, no warranty is made with regard to that content. Data, information or any other material may not be accurate and there may be other more recent material elsewhere. RICS will have no responsibility for any errors or omissions. RICS recommends you seek professional, legal or technical advice where necessary. RICS cannot accept any liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the editorial content, or by any person acting or refraining to act as a result of the material included.

8 Subscription information and contributor enquiries Q4 21 The Quarterly Global Commercial Property Survey is available from the RICS web site - along with other surveys covering the housing market, residential lettings, commercial property, construction activity, the farmland market and arts and antiques. For access to city level agents comments and contributor details please go to the following web address. Become a member of RICS If you would like to find out more about becoming a member of RICS, please visit The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Parliament Square London SW1P 3AD RICS represents 14, members worldwide. These professionals provide expert advice on land, property, construction and the associated environmental issues. An independent organisation, RICS acts in the public interest, upholding standards of competence and integrity among its members and providing impartial, authoritative advice on issues affecting business and society. T +44 () F +44 () economics@rics.org