Mismatch Between Demand & Supply Of Affordable Housing

Transcription

1 Mismatch Between Demand & Supply Of Affordable Housing National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) Valuation & Property Services Department (JPPH) Ministry of Finance Malaysia (MOF)

2 Residential Market Inventory (2018) Existing supply stood at 5.4 million houses Incoming supply nearly 0.45 million Planned supply at more 0.45 million 1

3 Residential Market New Launches ( ) Average 48,000 units 2

4 Residential Market

5 VOLUME Volume & Value of Residential Transaction (Q Q1 2018) VALUE 5

6 VOLUME Volume & Value of Residential Transaction by Price Range (Q Q1 2018) VALUE (RM million) 6

7 Overall Performance Residential Stock and Status (Q1 2018) Incoming Supply 453,175 units 1 Future Supply 902,849 units 4 3 Unsold Under Construction 61,266 units Unsold Not Constructed 14,00 units Planned Supply 449,674 units 2 Existing Stock 5,489,518 units 5 6 Completions Q1 21,641 units Overhang 23,193 units RM15.68 billion 7

8 volume Residential Future Supply (Planned Supply & Incoming Supply (Q1 2018) High-rise buildings continue to dominate the future supply, followed by terrace houses. 8

9 Residential Future Supply -Planned Supply + Incoming Supply by State (Q1 2018) Volume High-rise buildings continue to dominate the future supply, followed by terrace houses. 9

10 Residential Market Status Overhang (Completed) ,839 units ,285 units ,792 units ,738 units Q ,196 units Types : Flat/condo/Apartment: 10,238 units (40.6%) State : 1. Johor - 5,002 units 2. Penang - 4,092 units 3. Selangor 3,765 units 1.8% Value : RM15.68 bil Price range : 1. Below RM100k 7,931 units (31.5%) 2. RM300k RM500k 7,447 units (29.6%) 3. RM500k RM1 Mil 6,179 units (24.55) 10

11 Residential Market Status Unsold Under Construction Q ,791 units 49,568 units 64,077 units 61,882 units 61,266 units Type : 1. Flat/condo/Apartment: 28,761 units (46.9%) 2. Terraces : 22,123 units (36.1%) -1.0% State : 1. Selangor - 11,191 units 2. Johor - 10,880 units 3. Penang 8,625 units Price range : 1. Below RM300k 19,825 units (32.4%) 2. RM300k RM500k 16,413 units (26.8%) 3. RM500k RM1 Mil 19,677 units (32.1%) 4. > RM1 Mil 5,351 units (8.7%) 11

12 Residential Market Status Unsold Not Constructed Q Q ,372 units 8,032 units 11,622 units 12,626 units 14,000 units 10.9% Type : 1. Condo/Apartment: 10,449 units (74.6%) 2. Terraces : 2,272 units (16.2%) State : 1.Kuala Lumpur - 8,008 units 2.Sabah 992 units 3.Terengganu 932 units Price range : 1. Below RM100k 7,221 units (51.6%) 2. RM300k RM500k 4,136 units (29.5%) 3. RM500k RM1 Mil 2,172 units (15.5%) 4. > RM1 Mil 471 units (3.4%) 1

13 Affordable Housing Issues (Demand And Supply Mismatch)

14 Affordable Housing Demand And Supply

15 Q % of transaction is below RM500k and 52.5% is below RM300k (on par with national affordability level of median household). Therefore, we will assume affordable housing will fall in this price range. This presentation will now onwards focus on below RM500k price range.

16 Q Overall market preference slated towards Terraced and Condominium/Apartment

17 PERCENTAGE OF TRANSACTION BY PROPERTY TYPE AND PRICE RANGE Q Generally, 1- storey terraced house between RM100k-RM300k is the most transacted in Malaysia

18 Affordable House Price for Median Income Household by Income Group Malaysians are categorised into three different income groups: Top 20% (T20), Middle 40% (M40), and Bottom 40% (B40). Over the years, the bar for each group s income level has increased and this is one of the indicators of economic growth. Here s the affordability to buy houses according the income group: Househo ld Group Media n Income 2016 (RM) Percentage of monthly income for housing loan repayment Monthly Loan Repayme nt (RM) Mont hs Per Year Yearly Loan Repayment (RM) Loan Term (Year) Total Loan Payment (RM) House Value Afforded per year) T20 13,148 30% 3, , ,656, ,358 M40 6,275 30% 1, , , ,049 B40 3,000 30% , , ,796

19 Affordable House Price for Median Income Household by Selective District Even in the same State, the household income differ. Hence, different affordable house price range needed between big cities and small cities. Source by DOSM Calculated by NAPIC

20 Differences Between Demand and Supply For Affordable Housing REFERENCE: DEMAND: BASED ON NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS IN 2016-Q (PRIMARY & SECONDARY) TRANSACTION) SUPPLY: BASED ON (NO. OF UNITS LAUNCHED IN 2016-Q (PRIMARY ONLY) NOTE: THE DIFFERENCES ARE TO SHOW THE TRENDS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

21 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN (Sec ) KUALA LUMPUR TOWN Q MISMATCH

22 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN MUKIM KUALA LUMPUR Q MISMATCH

23 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN MUKIM PETALING, KUALA LUMPUR Q MISMATCH

24 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN PETALING, SELANGOR Q MISMATCH

25 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN HULU LANGAT, SELANGOR Q MISMATCH

26 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN GOMBAK, SELANGOR Q MISMATCH

27 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN SEREMBAN, NEGERI SEMBILAN Q MISMATCH

28 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN PORT DICKSON, NEGERI SEMBILAN Q MISMATCH

29 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN JOHOR BAHRU, JOHOR Q MISMATCH

30 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN KULAIJAYA, JOHOR Q MISMATCH

31 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN MUAR, JOHOR Q MISMATCH

32 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN MELAKA TENGAH, MELAKA Q MISMATCH

33 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN ALOR GAJAH, MELAKA Q MISMATCH

34 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN DAERAH TIMUR LAUT, PULAU PINANG Q MISMATCH

35 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN DAERAH TENGAH, PULAU PINANG Q MISMATCH

36 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN KOTA SETAR, KEDAH Q MISMATCH

37 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN KUALA MUDA, KEDAH Q MISMATCH

38 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN KOTA BHARU, KELANTAN Q MISMATCH

39 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN KUALA TERENGGANU, TERENGGANU Q MISMATCH

40 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN KUALA TERENGGANU, TERENGGANU Q MISMATCH

41 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN KUALA SANDAKAN, SABAH Q MISMATCH

42 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN KUCHING, SARAWAK Q MISMATCH

43 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN MIRI, SARAWAK Q MISMATCH

44 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN SIBU, SARAWAK Q MISMATCH

45 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEMAND (TRANSACTIONS) AND SUPPLY (NO. OF LAUNCHES) IN SIBU, SARAWAK Q MISMATCH

46 Conclusion Recommendations Prices of land is beyond government control. It was based on demand and supply. But, Federal and State authorities could help by reducing or waiving land premium or development charges, provide facilitation fund or provide land for affordable housing projects. Government funded agency should be helped by the state government to obtain better location land and a better infractructure (by pass to nearest highway) and frequent public transportation for projects further from working area. Industrialised Building System (IBS) could be a way to lower the cost of construction. Government should support by funding R&D to suit it for local preferences.

47 Conclusion...continue Recommendations As for suppliers or vendor, they could play a part by reducing their transportation charges to reduce the construction cost. Projects with affordable housing elements should be given approval priority by state governments. State government should monitor the approvals according to the market demand in order to avoid oversupply. Hence, they need to have their own database. Every state should implement 40% of approvals in a year should comprise affordable housing based on affordability in specific area. More incentives or tax relieves for those developers that build more than 30% affordable housing in a year.

48 Conclusion...continue Recommendations NAPIC publications is based on the feedback by the stakeholders (developers, property managers, local authority and etc). Lack of cooperation from stakeholders (data providers) is the main challenges faced by NAPIC data collector in order to report more precise reporting. Maximize the usage of the data provided in the report. Join study with other agencies reporting such as DOSM is needed for a more thorough and precise feasiblity study. Maximize profit by meeting the correct demand, not by selling the highest price and when can t achieve selling target, build low quality houses or worse, abandoned.

49 Conclusion...continue Recommendations Malaysia already have existing centralised Property Data Warehouse which called Property Information System Malaysia(PRISM). napic.jpph.gov.my A join online system between JPN and NAPIC for a single platform property data collection is underway, currently called Sistem Perumahan Negara. Expected to operate in 2019.

50 Thank You