2015 ANNUAL RESULTS WEBCAST 16 FEBRUARY 2016

Transcription

1 ANNUAL RESULTS WEBCAST 16 FEBRUARY 2016

2 DISCLAIMER The information contained in this document has not been independently verified. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of the Company, its shareholders, its advisors or representatives nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation or solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities, and this shall not form the basis for or be used for any such offer or invitation or other contract or engagement in any jurisdiction. The information, assumptions and estimates that were used to determine these objectives are subject to modification due to economic, financial and competitive uncertainties. Furthermore, it is possible that some of the risks described in chapter 4 in the Document de Référence, filed with the AMF under number D on 8 April, could have an impact on the company s ability to achieve these objectives. Accordingly, the Company cannot give any assurance as to whether it will achieve the objectives described, and makes no commitment or undertaking to update or otherwise revise this information. No assurance is given as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained in this document. NEXITY / results 2

3 TARGETS MET OR EXCEEDED GROWTH IN NEW HOME RESERVATIONS +13% by volume +19% by value Guidance* +8% / +15% by volume COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ORDER INTAKE x 2.1 m 403 m >200 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE +16% bn 3.06 bn >2.9 CURRENT OPERATING PROFIT +20% m 220 m >200 * 17 February, as partly revised upward on 23 July. NEXITY / results 3

4 NEW HOME MARKET IN FRANCE (DEVELOPERS) Residential NEW HOME RESERVATIONS (in units) +5-10% average: 102,500 89,300 86,800 ~101, (est.) 2016 (est.) Sources: Commissariat Général au Développement Durable Nexity estimates for and 2016 NEXITY / results 4

5 THE NEW HOMES MARKET IN FRANCE CORRELATED IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MACRO AND REGULATORY CYCLES Good visibility into 2016 and > Interest rates still low > Demand stimulus measures in effect until the end of 2017 But no structural recovery or quick return to historic highs (2007) > Little or no supply-side reforms (buildable land, standards, etc.) > Housing prices still high: solvency issues > Greater Paris governance: causing delays on major urban projects EXPECTED VOLUME OF NEW HOMES MARKET IN 2016: 105, ,000 sales (up 4% 9%) Individual investors base effect Paris region: Pinel rents unenticing Homebuyers PTZ interest-free loans Professional landlords > Social housing > Intermediate and regular housing PTZ HLM (Caisse des Dépôts) SNI/FLI, other institutionals (bulk sales of conventional or managed residences) NEXITY / results 5

6 NEXITY RESERVATIONS Residential VOLUME AT END-DECEMBER (in units) VALUE AT END-DECEMBER (in m, incl. VAT) +13.3% +18.8% +18.9% 14,432 12,774 12,322 12,562 14, % 2,527 2,493 2,137 2,160 2, % 11,741* 2,285* subdivisions international new homes Higher growth in value than in volume of new home reservations in France due to an increase in the average price of PERL and Iselection reservations and to a customer mix effect > Among bulk sales, increase in sales to institutional investors and decrease in sales to social housing operators * o/w PERL: 320 new homes and 90m incl. VAT in H1 (change of scope of consolidation), i.e. up 10% by volume and up 14% by value like-for-like. NEXITY / results 6

7 NEXITY NEW HOME RESERVATIONS BY AREA Residential VOLUME (in units) 10,121 42% 10,365 40% +13% 11,741 39% Paris region VALUE (in m, incl. VAT) 1,965 1, % +10% +17% 51% 48% 2,285 47% % 60% +16% 61% Rest of France 49% 52% +20% 53% Reservations by individuals increased by 19% outside the Paris region and only 9% in the Paris region (by volume) NEXITY / results 7

8 TRENDS IN NEXITY S CLIENT MIX Residential BREAKDOWN OF NEW HOME RESERVATIONS BY CLIENT TYPE (excl. International, in units) +13% 11,741 / 10,121 35% 10,365 36% 35% Professional landlords +10% 35% 37% 43% Individual investors +33%* 7% 23% 6% 21% 5% 16% Other homebuyers First-time buyers -1% -11% 2013 *+24% like-for-like NEXITY / results 8

9 PROFESSIONAL LANDLORDS Residential BREAKDOWN OF SALES TO PROFESSIONAL LANDLORDS (in units, excluding International) 3,499 3, % 4,140 2,949 2,815 3, , % social housing unregulated housing intermediate housing excluding SNI and FLI SNI and FLI (intermediate housing) non-social Sales to professional landlords increased again this year, reflecting an organisational focus on bulk sales.. was impacted by an especially high number of reservations on hold pending building permits. In this environment, there was a moderate decrease (of 5%) in sales to social housing operators. Substantial increase in non-social (unregulated and intermediate housing) sales (up 62% vs ) > 686 units reserved by SNI and FLI > Good level of activity for unregulated housing, in particular for bulk sales of serviced senior residences NEXITY / results 9

10 NEXITY PRICE TRENDS Residential NEXITY CLIENTS (in thousands, excl. Iselection, PERL, International and bulk sales) Paris region Paris region excl. Paris Rest of France Var. Average home price incl. VAT per sq.m. ( ) 3,781 3, % Average surface area per home (sq.m.) % Average price incl. VAT per home ( k) % NEXITY / results 10

11 NEXITY BUSINESS POTENTIAL Residential BUSINESS POTENTIAL FOR NEW HOMES* (in units, excl. Iselection, PERL and International) +19% 29,460 19,057 21,285 23,143 23,941 23,100 24, % Paris region Rest of France +11% * Includes the Group s current supply for sale, its future supply corresponding to project phases not yet marketed on acquired land, and projects not yet launched associated with land secured through options. NEXITY / results 11

12 COMMERCIAL MARKETS Commercial TAKE-UP IN PARIS REGION (in millions of sq.m) % FRENCH COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS (in billions of euros) % Offices, o/w 2.2 bn VEFA (off-plan) sales (stable yoy), 45% on spec (x2 vs ) Sources: CBRE, bureaux Ile-de-France and Investissement France, Q4 NEXITY / results 12

13 NEXITY: NEW ORDER INTAKE AND BACKLOG Commercial ORDER INTAKE (in m) BACKLOG (in m) 544 TARGET EXCEEDED +9% +8% > target 31 Dec. 14 revenue order additional 31 Dec. 15 intake works & other adjustments NEXITY / results 13

14 SERVICES: UNITS UNDER MANAGEMENT Services & Networks PROPERTY MANAGEMENT FOR INDIVIDUALS (PMI) (in thousands of units) REAL ESTATE SERVICES TO COMPANIES (Nexity Property Management) (in millions of sq.m under mgmt) 936-2% % 12.2 Condominium mgmt Rental mgmt % attrition rate in in property management for individuals on a like-for-like basis* (3.2% in ) *excluding the sale of Nexity s PMI operations in Switzerland and of 5 agencies in France, and the acquisition of PMI firms in Paris, Dijon and Bordeaux, as well as the Pierre Bérard firm in the Paris region NEXITY / results 14

15 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE* (in m) +16.2% 2, PERL change of scope Oralia change of scope -35 3, Other activities Services & Distribution Networks Commercial +4.0% +41.7% 1,833 2,162 Residential +18.0% Residential Commercial Services & Distribution Networks Other activities Revenue up 16%**, with growth in all Group business lines * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated ** up 14% like-for-like NEXITY / results 15

16 CURRENT OPERATING PROFIT* CURRENT OPERATING MARGIN (in %) CURRENT OPERATING PROFIT (in m) 8.6% (7.8%)** 10.3% (17.0%)** 7.0% (5.5%)** 7.2% (7.0%)** Services & Networks Commercial 186 Residential Residential Commercial Services & Networks Group -41 Other activities Current operating profit up 20%, increase in operating margin * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated ** Operating margin NEXITY / results 16

17 EBITDA* EBITDA** (in m and in % of revenue) +17.8% 221 (8.4%) 36 (7.5%) 41 (15.4%) 260 (8.5%) 46 (9.2%) 39 (10.2%) Services & Networks Commercial 152 (8.3%) 189 (8.8%) Residential Other activities * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated ** Current operating profit + depreciation and amortisation + provisions for risks and charges net of reversals + IFRS expenses on free shares + transfer of interest expense from inventories NEXITY / results 17

18 SERVICES & DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS* REVENUE (in m) CURRENT OPERATING PROFIT AND EBITDA (in m and in %) % +4,0% % 5 +31% +33% 7,5% % 9 9,2% % % % % Services & Networks excl. PMI** Current operating profit EBITDA Current operating profit EBITDA Property management for individuals (PMI) - PMI revenue stable on a like-for-like basis - PMI margin rate significantly improved * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated ** Services to corporates (NPM, NCT), Studéa and Franchises (Guy Hoquet l Immobilier, Century 21) NEXITY / results 18

19 CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT* (in m) Revenue 3, ,631.9 EBITDA % EBITDA / revenue 8.5% 8.4% Current operating profit % +18% +20% Margin 7.2% 7.0% Goodwill impairment - (50.0) Net financial income/(expense) (20.3) (16.6) Income taxes (73.7) (78.9) Share of profit/(loss) from equity-accounted investments and non-controlling interests (2.6) (2.6) Group share of net profit X3.5 Group share of net profit excl. goodwill impairment * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated NEXITY / results 19

20 CHANGE IN WORKING CAPITAL REQUIREMENT* WORKING CAPITAL REQUIREMENT (in m) m -94 M Other activities Residential** C al : Residential Commercial Services & Networks Other activities Services & Networks Commercial Residential: WCR reduced amidst a recovery in business activity > Pre-sale rate of off-plan (VEFA) projects: 67% > Faster pace of sales * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated ** o/w 64m in for PERL and 81m at the end of December NEXITY / results 20

21 CHANGE IN NET CASH/DEBT POSITION* (in m) m M Cash flow Change in Interest and tax Dividend CAPEX external operating payments WCR from operations before WCR, interest and tax growth** and Ciloger disposal Other *According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated ** including the acquisition price of minority interests in LFP, the holding company for real estate services to companies ( 26m) NEXITY / results 21

22 CASH FLOW STATEMENT* (in m) Cash flow from operating activities before financial and tax expenses Change in operating WCR 87 (79) Income taxes, financial expense and dividends of equity-accounted investments (84) (86) Net cash from/(used in) operations Net cash from/(used in) operating investments (20) (29) Free cash flow Net cash from/(used in) financial investing activities - (196) Dividend paid (108) (108) Net cash from/(used in) financing activities, excluding dividends Change in cash and cash equivalents * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated NEXITY / results 22

23 NEXITY BACKLOG* AT 31 DECEMBER (in m, excl. VAT and incl. Iselection, PERL and International) 16 MONTHS REVENUE FROM DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES 2, , ,315 3, ,355 3,283 3, Commercial real estate 2,044 2,344 2,606 2,702 2,869 2,834 2,806 Residential real estate Dec. 09 Dec. 10 Dec. 11 Dec. 12 Dec. 13 Dec. 14 Dec. 15 * Corresponds to the Group s order backlog in terms of forecast revenue and number of months of development activity. NEXITY / results 23

24 ÉDOUARD DENIS, A NEW SORT OF PARTNERSHIP Commitment on the 15 February 2016* vith a view to the acquisition by Nexity of a 55% majority stake in the share capital of Edouard Denis Group, the founder, (Mr Edouard Denis) retaining the remaining 45% Multi-regional residential real estate development group founded in 1996, very entrepreneurial 1,676 net new home reservations in > ~ 180m revenue in > Robust growth expected in > Profitability in line with Nexity s operating margin expectations Founding entrepreneur to remain, with own brand and operational independence A new growth driver for Nexity, in addition to its own-brand operations, in an open-architecture model, as it did with PERL and Iselection Completion of this acquisition is subject to the approval of the French Competition Authority and is expected before the end of the first half of NEXITY / results 24

25 OUTLOOK FOR 2016* EXTERNAL GROWTH Partnership with Edouard Denis**, Nexity takes a majority stake GROWTH IN NEXITY S NEW HOME RESERVATIONS Consistent with estimated French market volume of 105, ,000 reservations for 2016 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ORDER INTAKE Around 250 million REVENUE Stable, around 3 billion CURRENT OPERATING PROFIT TARGET At least 235 million (up 7%) * Financial data and indicators based on Nexity s operational reporting, with joint ventures proportionately consolidated. Moreover, all 2016 indicators are presented exclusive of Edouard Denis. ** See separate press release, dated 16 February 2016 NEXITY / results 25

26 DIVIDEND DIVIDEND PER SHARE (in per share) % Paid in: (May) 2011 (Sept. exceptional) * 2017* * Pending the decision of Nexity s Board of Directors and approval at the Shareholders Meeting. NEXITY / results 26

27 CONCLUSION NEXITY SHARE OFFERS 2016 Ambition for 2018 GROWTH Current operating profit At least 220M 300M 235M RETURN Dividend per share * (+10%)* * Pending decision of Nexity s Board of Directors and approval at the General Shareholders Meeting NEXITY / results 27

28 APPENDIX

29 OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE 31 DECEMBER 54,189,017 SHARES (no treasury shares) Crédit Mutuel Arkéa 5.0% 17.3% A. Dinin, New Port* and other Nexity managers in the concert group 12.3% 2.5% 5.2% FCPE and other employees Predica 12.8% Caisses d Epargne (Groupe BPCE) Free float 62.2% * New Port 6.9% NEXITY / results 29

30 FRENCH RESIDENTIAL MARKET: BUILDING PERMITS & HOUSING STARTS BUILDING PERMITS (in number of units, 12 months rolling) HOUSING STARTS (in number of units, 12 months rolling) 376,300 +2% 383, ,600 +0% 351,800 Dec Dec. Dec. Dec Dec. Dec. Source: Commissariat Général au Développement Durable NEXITY / results 30

31 MARKET DRIVERS MORTGAGE RATES (all markets, excl. insurance, last month of the quarter, average) MONTHLY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY SYNTHETIC INDEX (data corrected for seasonal variations) % 2.42% 2.21% Average: % Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 0.99% Q3 Q mortgage rates French gov. 10yr OAT bond (month-end spot rate) Sources: Observatoire Crédit Logement and Bloomberg Source: INSEE NEXITY / results 31

32 ACCOUNCEMENT OF A NEW PTZ* TO SUPPORT FIRST-TIME BUYERS Residential New measures voted to support home ownership through a next-generation PTZ > To be implemented for 2 years starting 1 January 2016 Main changes: > Raised income ceilings > Permissible loan-to-value ( quotité ) increased to 40% (18-26% max. previously) > Extended deferment period (minimum deferment period of 5 years, max. 15 years) > Budgetary envelope increased to 1.9bn POTENTIAL NUMBER OF PTZ GRANTED (estimates) (in thousand of units, for the total market (single-family houses and developers)) FINANCING OF NEXITY S RESERVATIONS BY HOMEBUYERS (as of 31 December ) +85% % no PTZ with PTZ 62% (est.) 2016 (est.) Prêt à Taux Zéro, i.e. 0% interest rate loan NEXITY / results 32

33 NEXITY NEW HOMES: SUPPLY FOR SALE Residential SUPPLY FOR SALE (in units, excl. Iselection, PERL and International) 6,988 2% +11% 52% 3,663 3,542 4,202 4,293 5,058 28% 5,313 29% 5,907 35% 1% Completed new homes New homes under construction 46% 71% 69% 64% New homes in project phase NEXITY / results 33

34 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE DIVISION KEY FINANCIALS* REVENUE (in m) CURRENT OPERATING PROFIT (in m) +18% +30% 1, , New homes Subdivisions International New homes International International Subdivisions New homes *According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated NEXITY / results 34

35 CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL OPERATING MARGIN* CURRENT OPERATING MARGIN (in %) 15.6% Excl. International 9.8% 8.2% 7.9% 10.0% 9.6% 9.1% 9.6% 7.8% 9.0% 8.6% * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated NEXITY / results 35

36 BALANCE SHEET* AT 31 DECEMBER (in m) Goodwill 1,149 1,581 Equity (incl. non-controlling interests) Other assets 131 WCR Provisions Net debt ASSETS EQUITY AND LIABILITIES * According to IFRS but with joint ventures proportionately consolidated NEXITY / results 36