Business Creation Index

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1 Business Creation Index December 2016 National Association of REALTORS Research Department

2 Introduction The new Business Creation Index (BCI) was created to monitor local economic conditions from the perspective of NAR s commercial members. The quarterly report offers insight from commercial real estate professionals into whether businesses are opening or closing by industry, population density, and subregion. On a monthly basis, it tracks three key questions related to local market conditions: 1. An increase of businesses opening in local communities in the last 30 days 2. An increase of businesses closing in local communities in the last 30 days 3. Net businesses opening and closing in local communities in the last 30 days On the 2016 Profile of Commercial Members, NAR s membership was asked the above questions over the last year from July 2015 to June The results gave way to creating the survey to gather monthly data and report changes on a quarterly basis. Additional topics will be examined in depth on The next BCI survey releases for 2017 will be: March, 2017 June, 2017 September, 2017 December, 2017

3 New Businesses Opening in Communities NAR commercial members were asked whether new businesses were opening in their communities in the previous 30 days for August through December. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they had seen an increase in businesses opening in December. Compared to November, only 43 percent said they has seen an increase in businesses openings, the lowest reported in the five month spread. Forty-three percent of respondents said they had not seen an increase in businesses opening in December, a decrease from 49 percent in November. An increase of businesses openings in community in the last 30 days 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 43% 42% 48% 49% 43% 49% 50% 44% 43% 49% August September October November December Yes No Don't Know

4 Businesses Opening By Industry NAR commercial members were asked the types of industries they saw opening in their communities each month between August through December Industries Opening for August-December 2016 Retail 65% Food/ Beverage 61% Health/ Medical/ Dental 41% Real Estate 32% Hospitality Office Services Technology 23% 22% 19% 18% Education/ Training Transportation 7% 7% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

5 Businesses Opening By Subregion Fifty-six percent of members in the West North Central subregion saw businesses opening in the last five months, followed by East South Central (53 percent), West South Central (53 percent), and South Atlantic (50 percent). Businesses Opening by Subregion for August-December 2016 West North Central 56% East South Central 53% West South Central 53% South Atlantic 50% Middle Atlantic 48% East North Central 44% Pacific 42% New England 42% Mountain 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

6 Businesses Closing in Communities NAR commercial members were asked whether businesses were closing in their communities in the previous 30 days for August through December. Seventy-three percent of respondents said they had not seen an increase in businesses closing in December, which is a steady increase over five months since August at 64 percent. According to respondents perspective, the rate of businesses closing is on the decline. Seventeen percent of respondents said they had seen an increase in businesses closing in December, the lowest in the past five months and a decrease from 20 percent in November. An increase of businesses closing in community in the last 30 days 120% 100% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 80% 60% 64% 67% 69% 69% 73% 40% 20% 0% 25% 22% 21% 20% 17% August September October November December Yes No Don't Know

7 Businesses Closing By Industry NAR commercial members were asked the types of industries they saw closing in their communities each month between August through December Industry Closings for August-December 2016 Retail 28% Food/ Beverage 22% Office 9% Real Estate Services Health/ Medical/ Dental 5% 6% 7% Hospitality Technology Education/ Training 3% 3% 3% Transportation 1% % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

8 Businesses Closing By Subregion Twenty-five percent of members in the Pacific subregion saw businesses closing in the last five months, followed by Mountain (22 percent), and New England and the West North Central (21 percent). Businesses Closing by Subregion for August-December 2016 Pacific 25% Mountain New England West North Central South Atlantic East North Central Middle Atlantic West South Central East South Central 22% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 18% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

9 Net Change in Openings to Closings NAR commercial members were asked to compare businesses opening to closing in their communities in the previous 30 days for August through December. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they had seen more businesses opening than closing in December, the highest in the last five months and an increase from 49 percent in November. Twenty-eight percent of respondents said they had seen the ratio of businesses opening to closing had stayed the same in December, a decrease from 30 percent in November. Net Openings and Closings for August-December % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 8% 8% 7% 8% 25% 26% 30% 30% 28% 16% 14% 13% 14% 12% 50% 52% 49% 49% 53% August September October November December Don't Know Opening and closings have remained the same in the last year More businesses closing than opening More businesses opening than closing

10 Methodology The survey was conducted by the National Association of REALTORS Research Department. Each month, August through December 2016, a sample of NAR s commercial members were surveyed via sampling. Each month approximately 1000 commercial members responded to the survey. The data compiled for this report and was based on a total of 5,322 completed surveys. Subregions are defined as follows: New England Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut Middle Atlantic New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey East North Central Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio West North Central North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri South Atlantic Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C., West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida East South Central Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama West South Central Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana Mountain Montana, Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico Pacific Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, and Hawaii

11 The National Association of REALTORS, The Voice for Real Estate, was America s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members, including NAR s institutes, societies and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry. NAR membership includes brokers, salespeople, property managers, appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential and commercial real estate. The term REALTOR was a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who was a member of the National Association of REALTORS and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Working for America s property owners, the National Association provides a facility for professional development, research and exchange of information among its members and to the public and government for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise system and the right to own real property. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS RESEARCH DIVISION The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS Research Division was to collect and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policymakers and the media in a professional and accessible manner. To find out about other products from NAR s Research Division, visit NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Research Division 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW Washington, DC

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