THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS FACTS & FIGURES 2016

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1 THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS FACTS & FIGURES 216

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3 Foreword Accessing reliable data promptly is key to enterprises and organisations. NVM is no exception. We are tremendously proud of our extensive database, covering meticulously updated and trustworthy information on the Dutch property market as a whole. In fact, NVM s quarterly housing market data are acknowledged and respected both nationally and internationally. Our reports dedicated to the commercial property market (e.g. offices, retail), agricultural property market and recreational home market are highly appreciated. Bearing in mind ever-changing times in which accessing reliable data instantly is pivotal, we must continue to expand our databases. Not only to promptly and correctly identify developments in previous seasons, but also to make future trends clearly visible. Anticipating the future of our property market helps increase the quality of services offered by real estate agents and valuers. Knowing which residential properties or industrial premises are (not) wanted and why. Knowing what exactly is going on within the communities, neighbourhoods, municipalities and regions, and what various plans look like in terms of new buildings, infrastructure, retail facilities, schools and so on. We owe our extensive databases to our internal staff members in the first place. They are most valuable to our members, but even more so to our clients who rely on us in purchasing or selling homes, or renting (out) property. To continue to lead in terms of property data, our job is to explore other sources as well. For instance, our data are connected to those owned by Funda as well as other parties who are actively involved within our broad field. I proudly present our NVM Annual Report 216. It beautifully represents the facts and figures regarding the property market in the previous year. Thanks to our data, we also anticipate development in 217. On behalf of NVM s dedicated team, who invested heavily in this edition, I wish you a pleasant and interesting read. Ger Jaarsma Chairman of NVM - the Netherlands Association of Real Estate Agents and Valuers 3

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5 Dutch Associaton of Real Estate Brokers and Real Estate Valuers NVM 5

6 Contents FOREWORD 3 INTRODUCTION 8 Main Economic Developments 1 HOUSING 12 Owner-occupier housing market continues to thrive 14 Major regional differences 15 Housing supply drops 16 New supply easier to dispose of 17 Market sentiment boosting residential sales 18 Lots of properties sold beyond the asking price 19 Households struggling as prices are changing excessively 2 Increased propensity to move 21 Starters are hardly able to access the owner-occupier 22 housing market Private funds are required for purchasing property 23 Insufficient affordable houses in large cities 24 Where should Amsterdam s starters be heading instead? 25 Major differences between residential districts 26 Long-term supply persists 27 Rents skyrocketing in the private sector 28 Rents climbing strongest in large cities 29 Lack of newly built properties 3 Significant price increases in the new buildings segment 31 Strong recovery on the recreational housing market 32 Purchasing a recreational home for financial reasons in the 33 first place 6

7 BUSINESS 34 Retail market recovery is taking hold 36 Retail supply drops after withdrawal 37 Retail supply falls mainly in large cities 38 Major regional differences in retail supply 39 Transaction duration steady 4 Fewer new shops 41 Smaller differences between the asking price and transaction price 42 More lack of decent offices 43 Stronger demand for Amsterdam s office market 44 Unable to recover at all levels 45 A record number of office withdrawals 46 Winners and losers on the office market 47 Office rents practically steady 48 Increased activity on the Dutch investment market 49 Foreign investors in total control 5 AGRICULTURAL & RURAL 58 More agricultural companies are sold average transaction 6 prices going down Saleability of companies depends on the agricultural sector 61 Pig farming market is slightly progresses 62 Uncertainty within the dairy sector affecting real estate 63 A good year for the farmhouse market as well 64 Major regional differences in farmhouse price levels 65 Demand for land remains up to standard 66 Demand for grassland is also maintained 67 OUTLOOK 68 NVM PROFILE 69 COLOPHON 7 Retail gross initial yields slightly down 51 Industrial property market recovery lingers 52 Demand for small-scaled industrial space continues to rise 53 Logistics market reporting record take-up 54 The Hague and Amsterdam are the most expensive municipalities 55 Growth of structural supply is slowing down 56 Favourable take-up and supply ratio in Western Netherlands 57 7

8 Introduction As economy continued to pick up in 216, a positive mood was sensed on the property market. Owing to low interest rates among other things, it was lifted to new records. Within a single year, an unprecedented amount of properties had been sold, including commercial premises. And yet, there is no denying that some of the sectors were by no means served by those positive changes. Like the residential property market for instance, going too far at some levels. Reporting growth beyond 2%, the Dutch economy experienced a remarkably strong year indeed. Once again, this was mainly driven by product and service exports, but to an extent also by increased household consumptions; consumer confidence was at its strongest since 27; unemployment rates have dropped beyond expectations. Manufacturers were slightly more pessimistic though, losing confidence in the second half of 216 after a peak in summertime. The European Central Bank s stimulus plan, pushing down interest levels significantly in 216, has been a major catalyst to the ever-accelerating property market. No market has benefited more from low interest rates than the housing market. Last year the number of existing owner-occupied houses sold went up by more than 16%; national prices climbing by nearly 9%. Similar numbers were reported in the new buildings segment of the owner-occupier housing market. The housing market picked up in almost every region, however some segments had become overheated. With the city being so incredibly attractive, demand exceeded supply significantly. Prices skyrocketed, with those interested having to pay beyond the asking price in many cases. Especially starters facing restrictive funding measures, experienced limited options on the owner-occupier market. Prices also climbed substantially on the private sector rental market, in fact by nearly 8% per square metre. Positive changes also presented themselves on the Dutch office market in 216. Demand increased by 25%, supply going down by 9%. Supply rates also dropped as many offices had been withdrawn from stock, to make room for houses among other things. But despite better market conditions, office rents hardly changed last year. The retail market continued to recover as well. Supply diminished for the first time in years, after successfully transforming vacant stores into residential, office or hospitality areas. Letting out many of V&D s previous stores ensured a record take-up of 1.1 million square metres. But still, the retail market was unmistakably divided as intensifying demand and falling supply levels in large cities were offset by poor demand and high vacancy rates in medium-sized and small towns. Economic recovery also allowed the industrial property market to continue to progress. Take-up even reached 6.1 million square metres, also due to serious demand for logistics property. Small-scaled industrial spaces became more popular as well. Another positive detail is that supply levels went down significantly, by approximately 1.5 million square metres. Average square metre rents climbed very modestly. The overall image on the investment market has been a positive one. More investments were made in offices as well as logistics property compared to 215, although this was slightly less the case for shop premises and shopping centres. On premium locations, office and distribution centre prices skyrocketed last year. As far as the agricultural property market is involved, 216 was by no means exceptionally strong, however generally speaking performances were better than a year before. Broadly speaking, good results were obtained in the arable and (greenhouse) horticulture sectors. Selling prices even improved in the poultry and pig farming industries, despite very limited positive impact on the property market in general. Dairy farmers were facing yet another year of uncertainty, especially in terms of the phosphorous legal system. As a result, selling whole dairy farms was quite impossible. The land market held up well, reporting steady prices or even climbing prices on a regional level every now and then. 8

9 The farmhouse market was all about intensifying demand and poorer supply. More transactions, shorter transactional periods and slightly higher transaction prices followed because of this. All things considered, 216 has been good to the property market. Economic recovery, stronger confidence and low interest rates allowed demand to intensify in many property sectors, pushing vacancy rates further down. 9

10 MAIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC GROWTH compared to last year, in % INFLATION in % MORTGAGE INTEREST in % 6 CAPITAL MARKET RATE SOURCE: STATISTICS NETHERLANDS, DNB, HYPOTHEEKSHOP 1

11 MAIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS JOB VACANCIES x UNEMPLOYMENT Seasonally adjusted, in % CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 3 2 PRODUCER CONFIDENCE HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONS compared to last year, in % BUSINESS INVESTMENTS in tangible fixed assets, compared to last year, in % SOURCE: STATISTICS NETHERLANDS 11

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14 OWNER-OCCUPIER HOUSING MARKET CONTINUES TO THRIVE To those wanting to buy a home, 216 was an exceptionally good year as economy continued to pick up, unemployment rates went down, interest rates have never been this low, and let s keep in mind the relatively low property prices. A total of 214, houses were sold last year, 165, of which were disposed of by NVM real estate agents. Due to strong demand for residential housing and poor suitable options, prices continued to climb. By year-end 216 properties were worth 2% more than in 213, the year in which the crisis hit rock bottom. The number of home sales skyrocketed indeed, however growth will slow down in the years to come. PEAK IN HOME SALES CAUSING SUBSTANTIAL PRICE HIKES Existing properties sold by NVM real estate agents 2 x 1. Transaction price 32 x 1. Home sales Average transaction price

15 MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCES In many respects, the housing market at year-end 216 was similar to that in the same period of 27. The average price of owner-occupier homes ( 238,) was back at the same level, houses were available for about the same period of time (8 days) and also the supply-transaction ratio was pretty much the same (tightness indicator: 7). But major regional differences exist nevertheless. Some of the housing markets are overheated, but in some regions markets are still too generous. The supply-transaction (demand) ratio is right in only half of all regions (versus 7% in 27) so we can say that the housing market is currently in good shape. Tight housing market Balanced housing market Generous housing market % steady 51% steady 15

16 HOUSING SUPPLY DROPS Within a properly functioning housing market, (new) supply and take-up levels (houses sold or withdrawn) are in balance. As a result, the number of properties on offer remains steady. Now, steadiness has not been the case in the past nine years. While the number of homes available in the period continued to grow, presently this is no more the case. In fact, the Randstad areacurrently has insufficient houses available on the market. Numbers x 1. Still available at year-end 18 Sold Withdrawn New supply

17 NEW SUPPLY EASIER TO DISPOSE OF New supply is easier to sell than properties that have been on the market for a longer period of time. Two-thirds of all residential properties offered for sale in 216 had already been sold before the end of the same year. However less than half of all properties already available in early 216 have now been taken up. In 216, the number of owner-occupier homes taken off the market (sold or withdrawn) exceeded the number of new properties on offer. And so as 216 came to an end, many more houses were still available for sale than at the beginning of the same year. Out of the total supply, mainly the relatively cheap homes were sold rapidly. More expensive types of properties remained available for a longer period of time. As a result, the asking price was relatively high for those homes that were still available at year-end. AVERAGE PROPERTY PRICE New supply in Recently withdrawn/ let out Recently sold Number of houses Asking price or selling price NEW SUPPLY Supply at year-end EXISTING SUPPLY New supply remains / Old supply remains / X 35. Supply in early Old property withdrawn / let out Old property sold

18 MARKET SENTIMENT BOOSTING RESIDENTIAL SALES The housing market is to a great extent a market of trust. Its recovery that began in 213 followed from stronger consumer confidence in the first place. As from late 216, consumer confidence diminished once more. The Dutch believe that the current conditions under which homes can be sold are less favourable compared to a year ago. It is because the mortgage interest rates have started to climb modestly, and fewer houses are available at the moment, interfering with the affordability as well as the availability of properties. NVM is expecting the number of housing transactions to slow down in 217 as a result. HOUSING MARKET CONFIDENCE VERSUS NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS VEH market indicator 15 Number of properties sold 5 x SOURCES: VEH, NVM 18

19 LOTS OF PROPERTIES SOLD BEYOND THE ASKING PRICE The number of houses disposed of beyond the asking price climbed in 216 (1:6). On the tightest housing market, properties are popular to such an extent, in fact transaction prices exceeded the asking prices in almost half the cases. Some properties were offered at a starting price. Sold beyond the asking price at year-end 216 Up to 4% NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD BEYOND THE ASKING PRICE 5% and more 2%

20 HOUSEHOLDS STRUGGLING AS PRICES ARE CHANGING EXCESSIVELY Excessively strong price developments on the housing market are socially unwanted. As the crisis persisted, the value of an average home dropped by 5 up to 1,2 a month. Selling properties left many home-owners with debts. Today prospective buyers are struggling as well, as the average property is becoming about 1,5 more expensive every single month. Towards the end of 216, the price of an average home in the Netherlands was only 2% below the pre-crisis value PRICE AT WHICH PROPERTY WAS SOLD INCREASED OR DROPPED BY THIS AMOUNT EVERY MONTH

21 INCREASED PROPENSITY TO MOVE The number of households wanting to move climbed from 2.1 million in 29 to 3.2 million in 215. Much of this growth is brought about by households who might want to exchange homes. The majority of households actively seeking property prefer to buy. This is mainly the case for the largest group that consists of existing home-owners. About 86% wants to continue to live in an owner-occupier home; 41% of people renting a home want to buy property instead; the others choose to simply rent; as much as 62% of all starters prefer a rented home. The property desired is a medium-expensive owner-occupier or inexpensive rented home in most cases. Compared to the situation in 29, the strongest growth is identified within the cheap owner-occupier home category and the expensive private rented sector. Demand for this latter group of homes has more than doubled. PREFERS PURCHAS- ING/ RENTING AND PRICE CATEGORY PROPENSITY TO MOVE 4 x million 3 possibly/maybe actively seeking 5 x prefers to buy Purchase < 18. Purchase Purchase > 28. Rent < capping Rent capping liberalisation Rent > liberalisation BUY/RENT Prefers to rent starter Homeowner wanting to trade up Tenant wanting to trade up SOURCE: MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR AND KINGDOM AFFAIRS 21

22 STARTERS ARE HARDLY ABLE TO ACCESS THE OWNER-OCCUPIER HOUSING MARKET While the crisis was sensed by people trading up in the first place (remaining debt, fear not to be able to sell the property), starters are now suffering the consequences of an extremely good housing market. With supply diminishing in large cities and due to a serious increase in prices within the affordable segment, starters are now hardly able to access the owner-occupier housing market. Those with limited funds or study loans have even more difficulty financing property. Last year less than 4% of all houses were purchased by starters. The terraced house remains starters typical choice, even though today they are opting for an apartment more often due to the popularity of the city in question and climbing property prices. TERRACED HOUSE REMAINS FIRST-TIME BUYERS TYPICAL CHOICE (% of total sales) % % FIRST-TIME BUYERS SHARES IN TOTAL SALES 16 x People trading up First-time buyers % 23% 22% 23% Terraced house Semi-detached & detached Apartment SOURCE: KADASTER, RABOBANK, NVM, Experian 22

23 PRIVATE FUNDS ARE REQUIRED FOR PURCHASING PROPERTY As mentioned previously, starters are struggling more and more to buy their first home. In 217, they were able to finance 11% of the property value. Additional costs for purchasing a home, however, are about 6%. The remaining 5% (for an average home this comes down to over 12,) should be covered by private funds. And let s not forget costs for adjusting and improving property. Starters in particular have a very hard time providing these amounts on their own. And so they are only able to purchase a home at an older age; starters earning a middle income or less are hardly capable of accessing the owner-occupier housing market. Up to 25 years 21,1% 2,3% ,6% 213 8,5% 9,2% 4,4% FIRST-TIME BUYERS AGE CATEGORIES ARE SHIFTING 16% ,7% 24,9% ,4% 18,8% 5+ 19,1% SOURCE: HYPOTHEEKSHOP

24 INSUFFICIENT AFFORDABLE HOUSES IN LARGE CITIES Large cities are very attractive to home-buyers, causing serious price hikes of 1% and even beyond in 216. Home-buyers borrowing capacity, however, didn t grow accordingly. Earning an average income of 35, annually, they were only able to purchase property up to 15,. In large cities, however, fewer homes are available in this price category. Major regional differences do exist though. For instance in Amsterdam, hardly any affordable houses are available. In Rotterdam, on the other hand, one-third of new supply is costing no more than 15,. NEW SUPPLY UP TO 15, (PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL) 5% Rotterdam The Hague Utrecht Amsterdam The Netherlands 24

25 WHERE SHOULD AMSTERDAM S STARTERS BE HEADING INSTEAD? Now that less and less affordable housing is available for sale in the city of Amsterdam, the question that presents itself is this: where should middle-income buyers (e.g. starters) be heading? Many neighbouring municipalities come with a very limited offer in the 15, price range. Those earning average incomes might want to explore options in Zaandam, Purmerend, Haarlem and Almere. 21% 14% Purmerend up to 15. starting at % OFFERED FOR SALE IN 216 Zaandam Almere 7% Haarlem 5% AMSTERDAM 4% 1% Diemen Badhoevedorp 4% 17% Hoofddorp % 1% 17% 16% Bussum Aalsmeer Amstelveen Weesp 7% Hilversum Uithoorn 25

26 MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL DISTRICTS The residential area with the highest average selling price is 'Buitenwijken' in the municipality of Huizen (Noord-Holland). Here, the average selling price exceeded 1 million in 216, followed by 'Aerdenhout' in Bloemendaal and 'Oud-over en Mijnden' in Loenen aan de Vecht respectively. The Top-1 most expensive districts mainly involved villa neighbourhoods with detached houses, most of which are located in rural or wooded municipalities within the Randstad area. One of the exceptions has been a district known as 'Stolkpark en Scheveningse Bosjes' in The Hague: it is located within the city. The list of the cheapest residential areas is looking completely different, presenting urban districts in the first place, like 'Charlois' in Rotterdam. These districts are also home to more apartments, which is also the case in a district called 'Haagse Bos' in The Hague. In addition, many inexpensive residential areas are far outside Randstad. The average selling price in the cheapest residential district - 'Eikenderveld' in Heerlen is less than 87,; which is below the selling price reported in the most expensive neighbourhood in the Netherlands (factor 13). TOP-1 MOST EXPENSIVE RESIDENTIAL DISTRICTS IN THE NETHERLANDS BASED ON SELLING PRICES REALISED IN 216 TOP-1 MOST INEXPENSIVE RESIDENTIAL DISTRICTS IN THE NETHERLANDS BASED ON SELLING PRICES REALISED IN 216 1,2 x million 1,,8,6,4,2 Huizen / Buitenwijken Bloemendaal / Aerdenhout 993. Stichtse Vecht / Oud-over en Mijnden 96. Wassenaar / Zuidwestelijk deel der gemeente 931. Bussum / Brediuskwartier 729. Bergen (NH.) / Bergen aan Zee 718. Bloemendaal / Overveen 716. Bussum / Spiegel 712. Wijdemeren / Loosdrecht 676. The Hague / Van Stolkpark en Scheveningse Bosjes 675. Heerlen / Eikenderveld FOR SALE 87. Almelo / Nieuwstraat-Kwartier S O L D 92. Deventer / Rivierenwijk 92. Leeuwarden / 't Vliet 99. Leeuwarden / Schieringen & De Centrale 11. Rotterdam / Charlois 13. Lelystad / Stadshart 14. The Hague / Haagse Bos 15. Heerlen / Vrieheide-De Stack 16. Heerlen / Heksenberg

27 LONG-TERM SUPPLY PERSISTS Not the entire owner-occupier housing market thrived last year. In fact more than 17, properties have been available for sale for more than three years. Nearly two-thirds of which are apartments or detached homes. Different reasons exist as to why this is taking so long: 1. One cannot or will not lower the price due to private circumstances (divorce, unemployment). 2. The quality of the location or property does not meet expectations (overdue maintenance). 3. Poor demand for the type of homes on offer. 4. Properties are not visible to home seekers. LONG-TERM SUPPLY: HOUSES AVAILABLE FOR SALE FOR AT LEAST 3 YEARS - 8% % and beyond 27

28 RENTS SKYROCKETING IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR The rents of private sector properties let out last year were 7.9% beyond price levels reported in 215. In the fourth quarter of 216, the average rent amounted to 1.48 per square metre, compared to 9.71 per square metre only a year before. This follows from growing demand for private sector rented homes. Middle-income households are earning too much to qualify for social housing. But at the same time, they cannot purchase a home due to stricter funding rules and limited borrowing capacity. Therefore, there is an urgent need to start building rented homes in the middle segment. Upholstered and furnished property rents climbed by 8.1% and 6.8% respectively in 216. Upholstered homes came at per square metre; 18.3 per square metre was paid for fully furnished alternatives. RENT PER M Furnished Upholstered 1 Apartments Houses in total Residential properties FOR RENT R E N T E D

29 RENTS CLIMBING STRONGEST IN LARGE CITIES In those areas that come with a tight housing market, rents have been climbing alarmingly. This is mainly the case in large cities, witnessing a critical lack of middle-segment private sector housing. As a result, many households might not be able to find appropriate housing. In the province of Utrecht, rents climbed by 19.6% in a single year, up to per square metre. In Noord-Holland, the average square metre price is (+ 9.8%). Rents only dropped in the province of Zeeland (- 2.6%), currently amounting to 8.15 per square metre. Flevoland Gelderland Utrecht Noord-Holland RENT Rent per m 2 by province in 216 Zuid-Holland Zeeland Noord-Brabant Overijssel Limburg Drenthe Groningen Friesland RENT PER M 2 BY DEGREE OF URBANISATION Compared to previous year 1,6% 1,8% 3,5% 5,1% 12,3% Non-urban Hardly urban Slightly urban Rather urban Very urban 29

30 LACK OF NEWLY BUILT PROPERTIES In 216, many more new houses were sold compared to previous years. But as a result, less property is now offered for sale. Prospective buyers increasingly rely on new projects, however new supply is insufficient for meeting intensifying demand. Luckily, large cities intend to bring forward many construction projects in the years to come, designating new locations as well. 3 x Number sold Still available at year-end

31 SIGNIFICANT PRICE INCREASES IN THE NEW BUILDINGS SEGMENT The lack of new homes has seriously pushed up new property prices across the country. Especially in big cities, prices have exploded. 14,7% 4,9% 7,4% 5,6% 11,9% 13,7% 11,5% 4,3% 1,2% 5,6% TRANSACTION PRICE COMPARED TO LAST YEAR 4,4% -3% 3-6 4,5% % or more 31

32 STRONG RECOVERY ON THE RECREATIONAL HOUSING MARKET NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS AND AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICE 2 x 1. The number of holiday homes sold skyrocketed last year. In 215, the Kadaster confirmed a total of 3,13 transactions, up 8% compared to 214 (1,75 transactions) and approximately 7% above long-term average. Hence the number of recreational home transactions has peaked since the beginning of this series of digits back in 24. Average transaction prices have climbed as well, by no less than 8%. Recovery mainly presented itself in those areas already home to a relatively good market, like the Veluwe/Utrechtse Heuvelrug, the Noord-Holland and Zeeland coasts. Prices have dropped further in the Netherlands weaker areas, even though more transactions were realised there as well. Besides, the divide in terms of supply has become more visible. Demand for recreational homes involved luxurious options more often. As a result, old supply is becoming increasingly challenging. 4. Average transaction price Number of transactions NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS PER REGION Flevoland Twente / Salland Limburg Achterhoek Waddeneilanden Friese en Overijsselse lakes Brabant Coastal zone ZH Drenthe Other Netherlands Zeeland Coastal zone NH Veluwe / Utrechtse Heuvelrug 32

33 PURCHASING A RECREATIONAL HOME FOR FINANCIAL REASONS IN THE FIRST PLACE Demand for recreational homes intensified as interest rates continued to drop. To buyers, recreational homes make a perfect alternative investment, especially now that savings and bonds are less rewarding and shares are considered too risky. Nevertheless, private recreational use remains the main reason for purchasing a recreational home. Most people are combining recreational use with rental to third parties whenever the property is not being used. The number of (prospective) buyers purchasing a recreational home only as an investment, is limited indeed. PREFERS NEW OR EXISTING PROPERTY 6% An existing recreational home A newly built recreational home Land to build your own recreational home No preference PURCHASING CRITERIA Private use only Private use but also to let out occasionally Mainly rental, and private use occasionally Rental initially, private use later on Not sure yet/no opinion Buyers are mainly interested in luxurious newly built recreational homes. Almost 4% of prospective buyers said they aspired new property. This strong demand also resulted in bigger planning capacity. Compared to mid-215, the latter increased by at least 25% up to 8,3 recreational homes. RECREATIONAL HOMES PER REGION IN 216 Hard planning capacity 2. x homes 1.5 Noord- Brabant Zeeland Coastal zone Zuid-Holland 1. 5 Twente/Salland Friese and Overijsselse lakes Limburg Coastal zone Noord-Holland Veluwe / Utrechtse Heuvelrug Flevoland Achterhoek 5.5 Waddeneilanden (excl. Texel) 11. Drenthe x stock in

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36 RETAIL MARKET RECOVERY IS TAKING HOLD Although some of the indicators of the Dutch retail market may not have developed in a positive direction in 216, the most important ones unmistakably progressed compared to 215. Supply as well as vacancy levels have dropped for the first time in years but also, the number of retail bankruptcies has gone down as well. And yet, fewer retail businesses came into existence and more businesses were discontinued compared to 215. Nevertheless, newly-formed firms exceeded business closures. POSITIVE 216 versus 215 NEGATIVE Retail companies closed down +12,6% Retail property take-up (in m 2 ) +9% Structural supply by number of retail properties Average supply period +5,7% +4,8% Retail bankruptcies +1% Vacant outlets Supply retail by numbers m 2 Retail turnover -4,3% -2,4% -2,8% -4,7% = 33 days Retail companies incorporated SOURCE: EDITING: NVM 36

37 RETAIL SUPPLY DROPS AFTER WITHDRAWAL Supply as well as vacancy rates went down last year. One of the main reasons is that more retail premises had been withdrawn, allowing retail stock to drop by 1% in 216, down to 31.2 million m². Stores were either redesignated, merged or demolished. Even though total supply went down in the Netherlands, total stock increased in quite many municipalities but not as much as in 216. Retail stock dropped most significantly in the provinces of Limburg and Groningen. Leeuwarden Groningen Assen Zwolle RETAIL STOCK BY MUNICIPALITY Amsterdam Increased significantly (>1%) Increased ( - 1%) Decreased (-1 - %) Decreased significantly (> - 1%) Utrecht The Hague Rotterdam Arnhem INCREASE AND DECREASE Increasing space in 168 municipalities Diminishing space in 222 municipalities Eindhoven Maastricht SOURCE: LOCATUS, EDITING: NVM 37

38 RETAIL SUPPLY FALLS MAINLY IN LARGE CITIES The amount of retail space offered for rent or sale dropped by approximately 2.7% in 216, down to 2.42 million m². This is the first fall since 25. Supply levels went down mainly in our country s large cities, as supply continued to increase in municipalities with less than 2, residents and those with 5, up to 1, residents. Structural supply, representing the number of stores that have been available for more than three years, also climbed last year. At year-end 216, 16.8% of these stores had been on the market for rent or sale for more than three years (215: 15.7%). Percentage of municipalities with increasing supply levels Structural supply (% of retail supply by number of stores available for more than 3 years) 6% Residents class by municipality > 1. TOTAL IN THE NETHERLANDS 38

39 Assen MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN RETAIL SUPPLY Empty shops is a local problem in the first place. Vacancy per capita is the smallest in large and small municipalities. Oisterwijk and Beverwijk are on top of the list of municipalities with the highest vacancy levels per capita. Here, nearly one square metre of retail space is available for rent or sale per resident. Retail space (m2) available per capita Beverwijk Quite a lot (between.5 and 1m²) A lot (between,3 and,5m²) Zutphen Average (between,1 and,3 m²) Little (less than,1 m²) Vianen No retail space available The Netherlands:,14m² Beesel Oisterwijk Brunssum 39

40 TRANSACTION DURATION STEADY Retail space take-up reached a 1.1 million m² record level in 216, also after many of V&D s former stores had welcomed new lessees. Although many of these building exchanged owners quite soon, generally it took just as long to sign transactions as in the year 215. But even though transaction periods were longer in previous years, they are not expected to last any longer in the future as economy is picking up and consumers are spending more money. Stores were sold or let out the fastest in the provinces of Noordand Zuid-Holland. Take-up in m 2 Within 3 months Between 3 and 6 months Between 6 months and 1 year Between 1 and 2 years Between 2 and 3 years Between 3 and 4 years Between 4 and 5 years More than 5 years PERCENTAGE OF TRANSACTIONS ACCORDING TO TRANSACTION DURATION (IN NUMBERS) Average transaction duration in days %

41 FEWER NEW SHOPS Based on NVM s data, fewer new shops joined in last year compared to 215, which is consistent with data presented by Statistics Netherlands, confirming fewer retail businesses came into being in 216 than a year before. NVM data also reveal that proportionally speaking fewer transactions have taken place in the previous year due to shrinkage and more transactions as a result of business relocation or expansion. 6 % Shrinkage New establishment Expansion Relocation 41

42 SMALLER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ASKING PRICE AND TRANSACTION PRICE Average retail property rents hardly changed in 216. Average selling prices, however, increased by 4% compared to 215. The difference between the transaction price and asking price has diminished further within both price categories (rental and sales). But still, it has not reached pre-crisis levels. The difference between the asking price and transaction price of sales properties almost doubled compared to the period ahead of the crisis. The difference between the asking price and selling price was the least substantial in the provinces of Flevoland, Utrecht and Noord-Holland. The largest difference was reported in Zeeland. Difference between transaction price and asking price (rental) Difference between the original price and transaction price (rental) Difference between transaction price ad asking price (sales) Difference between the original asking price and transaction price (sales) Smallest difference between asking price and transaction price (sales) Smallest difference between the asking price and transaction price (rental) Main difference between the asking price and transaction price % FOR RENT

43 MORE LACK OF DECENT OFFICES Demand for office space skyrocketed in 216. Transaction volumes realised on the open market (1.16 million m²) were much beyond the levels of the preceding year. Strong demand for offices also had positive impact on vacancy levels. Immediately available supply went down to 7.75 million m² last year. In addition to healthy demand for office space, the large number of withdrawals also made total supply levels drop in 216. Nevertheless, 16% of Dutch office stock was still available for rent or sale at year-end 216. This may seem like a lot, however a substantial share is quite old and is no longer meeting contemporary demand. As few offices were built in previous years, a serious lack of proper space is on the lurk in some places. This is particularly the case in the city of Amsterdam. 1x million m² Supply of new office space 8 Supply of existing office space

44 STRONGER DEMAND FOR AMSTERDAM S OFFICE MARKET A positive mood predominated office markets in the Netherlands four large cities. Supply of vacant offices going down has been one of the main reasons. A positive image also presented itself on the demand side, especially as far as the Dutch capital is involved where office sales climbed by 7%. Demand for offices also skyrocketed in the city of Utrecht. However, developments were rather disappointing in The Hague, with office market settling for modest take-up. One of the reasons has been the lack of demand from the authorities and the sheer lack of large lease transactions. OFFICE SPACE DEMAND AND SUPPLY LEVELS IN THE FOUR LARGE CITIES,75,5,25 1 x million m2 AMSTERDAM % 5 THE HAGUE 1x million m 2 2%,75 15,5 1, ROTTERDAM UTRECHT Vacancy percentage 1 2% 1x million m 2 2% Take-up in m 2,75 15,75 15 Supply in m 2,5 1,5 1,25 5,

45 UNABLE TO RECOVER AT ALL LEVELS Although the office market was quite positive in general, the demand-supply ratio changed for worse in some areas of our country last year, as take-up diminished and vacancy rates continued to climb. This situation mainly occurred in the country s three northern provinces and also in Zuid-Holland. Noord-Holland, Utrecht and Noord-Brabant, however, reported progress instead m OFFICE TAKE-UP AND SUPPLY LEVELS IN 216 Supply Take-up Groningen Friesland Drenthe Overijssel Gelderland Utrecht Flevoland Noord-Holland Zuid-Holland Zeeland Noord-Brabant Limburg 45

46 A RECORD NUMBER OF OFFICE WITHDRAWALS An unprecedented amount of office space was withdrawn from stock in 216. Interestingly, most of these properties have been transformed into homes and transformations were also carried out in areas previously out of the question, like industrial sites. The obligation that by 223 all offices must at least have energy label C, will also result in re-designations and demolitions in the years to come. For sustainability costs cannot be made up for by increasing rents. MUNICIPALITIES WHERE MOST OFFICE SPACE WAS WITHDRAWN IN 216 OFFICE STOCK WITHDRAWALS Rotterdam m2 The Hague Hotels 46. m2 Miscellaneous 37. m m Amsterdam Arnhem Amstelveen 76. Hilversum 63. Eindhoven Demolition 224. m2 WHAT HAPPENED IN 216 WITH THE WITHDRAWN OFFICES? Assen 26. Houses 757. m Rijswijk Groningen

47 WINNERS AND LOSERS ON THE OFFICE MARKET Even though nationally speaking office vacancy rates dropped significantly last year, some of our municipalities were unable to benefit. Supply available for immediate occupation actually climbed in many of them, especially those located outside the Randstad area. But on the other hand, vacancy levels dropped significantly in many municipalities most of which are to be found within Randstad. Overall, the number of winners exceeded the number of losers in x 1. m 2 DUTCH MUNICIPALITIES WHERE VACANCY RATES CLIMBED MOST SIGNIFICANTLY DUTCH MUNICIPALITIES WHERE VACANCY RATES DROPPED MOST SIGNIFICANTLY Meppel Arnhem Roermond Roosendaal Veenendaal Groningen Leeuwarden Zoetermeer Ouder-Amstel Veghel Leiden Rijswijk Breda Eindhoven Dordrecht Haarlemmermeer Amstelveen Rotterdam The Hague Amsterdam 47

48 OFFICE RENTS PRACTICALLY STEADY Contrary to expectations, rents hardly moved in 216. Upward price pressures only presented themselves in the city of Amsterdam, reporting higher transactions volumes and lower vacancy rates, a development serving the city centre and the South Axis business district in the first place. Rents did not change elsewhere in the Dutch capital, although fewer incentives were offered. The latter also slightly diminished in the city of Rotterdam. When it comes to municipalities with relatively high supply levels and limited demand, owners did have a difficulty maintaining rents. This was particularly the case for slightly older buildings Average square metre rent

49 INCREASED ACTIVITY ON THE DUTCH INVESTMENT MARKET 1x billion euro The commercial property investment market (offices, industrial buildings, retail) was a lively sight in 216, as investors spent nearly 7 billion, almost just as much as in the previous year. Although different factors mattered, this sentiment was mainly determined by low interest rates and the wide availability of capital. Offices were the most popular property last year. Within this segment of the buildings market in fact more investments were made, particularly in Randstad-based buildings. Strangely enough, fewer investments were made in shop premises and shopping centres. And when it comes to industrial property investments, focus was on distribution centres in the first place. Due to investors strong demand for offices and distribution centres, first-class property prices climbed significantly in 216. COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS 8 Offices Industrial Retail

50 FOREIGN INVESTORS IN TOTAL CONTROL When it comes to demand for commercial property in 216, foreign investors were predominant for sure. A key role was claimed by Anglo-Saxon investors, maintaining the image identified in previous years. However German investors also attracted attention on this market. Dutch investors spent nearly 2 billion on commercial property, but were they slightly more interested in the office market. Other countries America The Netherlands England Belgium 3.. Germany

51 RETAIL GROSS INITIAL YIELDS SLIGHTLY DOWN The gross initial yield of retail properties slowly dropped in 216, as a result of which slightly higher prices were paid for easy-to-let retail spaces compared to 215. Last year s average gross initial yield was still approximately 2.5 percentage point above levels reported in the peak years 26 and 27. But one must bear in mind the fact that numbers only indicate how yields developed, as limited data are available. Also the numbers shared do not involve A1 locations in large cities, where considerably lower yields are paid for stores. AVERAGE GROSS INITIAL YIELD OF RETAIL SPACE 12% FOR SALE S O L D

52 INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY MARKET RECOVERY LINGERS Companies actively involved in the construction industry, trade, manufacturing industry and logistics, experienced positive developments in the previous year; more companies were called into existence and the number of bankruptcies has dropped. Also, entrepreneurs were more confident about the future. This positive course of events also had an impact on the industrial property market. In 216, more industrial space was taken up compared to the year before. What s more, the amount of industrial space available fell by 1%. INCORPORATION OF COMPANIES* BUSINESS CLOSURES* BUSINESS CONFIDENCE* CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES* 4,9% 8,7% INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY MARKET INDUSTRIAL SPACE TAKE-UP in million m² INDUSTRIAL SPACE SUPPLY in million m² 5,9 6,1 15,4 13,9 *Manufacturing industry, construction & logistics SOURCE: CBS Statline, NVM Business 52

53 DEMAND FOR SMALL-SCALED INDUSTRIAL SPACE CONTINUES TO RISE Nearly one-quarter of all lease and sales transactions signed in 216 involved industrial spaces covering 1 up to 2 m². Small-scaled transactions were realised in the provinces of Zuid-Holland and Noord-Holland, which means in the four large cities and municipalities of Westland, Haarlemmermeer and Zaanstad. Only 2% of transactions exceeded 1, m², involving logistics warehouses in the provinces of Noord-Brabant and Gelderland in most cases. Industrial properties available for rent or sale towards the end on 216 were often slightly bigger than those taken up. INDUSTRIAL SPACE SUPPLY AND TRANSACTIONS BY SIZE CATEGORY In number of properties 1% SUPPLY TRANSACTIONS > 1. m² m² m² m² 5-1. m² m² m² m²

54 LOGISTICS MARKET REPORTING RECORD TAKE-UP The year 216 was special as far as the logistics industry is involved. Entrepreneurs had become more confident about the future, and a lot more investments were made. The logistics property market picked the fruits as distribution centre take-up climbed from 1.2 million m² to over 1.4 million m². Vacancy rates dropped at the same time. Take-up intensified also because of a strong demand for large-scale distribution centres in southern Netherlands. But eventhough total supply had dropped, a substantial amount of space was still available for rent or sale towards the end of the year. One of the problems is that most of these buildings are unable to meet demand for high-quality logistics property. SUPPLY AND TAKE-UP OF LOGISTICS PROPERTY 4 x million m 2 3,2 2,4 1,6, Supply SUPPLY AND TAKE-UP OF LOGISTICS PROPERTY BY PROVINCE Demand 1 x million m 2,8,6,4,2 Noord-Brabant Limburg Zuid-Holland Noord-Holland Gelderland Utrecht Zeeland Groningen Overijssel Flevoland Friesland Drenthe 54

55 THE HAGUE AND AMSTERDAM ARE THE MOST EXPENSIVE MUNICIPALITIES In 216, average industrial property rents were most substantial in the cities of The Hague and Amsterdam, the least so in Venlo, Tilburg and Enschede. Obviously in addition to location, the year of construction as well as the quality of the property involved are key. Average industrial property rents in Zwolle and The Hague skyrocketed in the previous year, dropping most significantly in Tilburg. 78 Amsterdam Haarlemmermeer The Hague 7 Utrecht Almere Zwolle 6 Amersfoort Rotterdam 47 Enschede AVERAGE SQUARE METRE RENT IN 14 MUNICIPALITIES Den Bosch Breda 47 Tilburg 47 Venlo

56 GROWTH OF STRUCTURAL SUPPLY IS SLOWING DOWN STRUCTURAL SUPPLY IN LARGE MUNICIPALITIES (number of properties) % The climbing numbers of industrial buildings that have been available for rent or sale for a long time slowed down last year. At year-end 216, the structural availability of industrial property amounted to 21% of total supply. Averagely speaking, industrial spaces were on offer for about 4 days before signing a contact. In 216, the average transaction took just as much time as in the preceding year. Venlo reported the highest structural supply rates proportionally: 31% of total supply. Zwolle 25% STRUCTURAL SUPPLY AS A SHARE OF TOTAL SUPPLY (in number of properties) Available for more than 3 years Available for more than 5 years The Hague 14% Amsterdam 18% Haarlemmermeer 13% Utrecht 13% Amersfoort 18% Almere 2% Enschede 25% 213 3% 214 4% 215 7% 11% 14% 2% Rotterdam 15% Breda 2% Tilburg 18% Den Bosch 18% Eindhoven 12% Venlo 31% 216 9% 21% 56

57 FAVOURABLE TAKE-UP AND SUPPLY RATIO IN WESTERN NETHERLANDS Take-up ratio of industrial property this is the demand-supply ratio has been most favourable in the provinces of Zeeland, Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland. Within these provinces, relatively many transactions were signed last year in comparison to the amount of industrial property on offer. However, much industrial space was available for rent or sale in Drenthe and Flevoland. Also take-up was relatively modest in 216. Hence, take-up ratio was the lowest in these provinces. Zuid-Holland Noord-Holland 33% 33% 28% 66% 67% Friesland Groningen 24% 26% 2% 76% 74% Gelderland 72% Drenthe 8% INDUSTRIAL SPACE SUPPLY-DEMAND RATIO PER PROVINCE x 1. m 2 Noord-Brabant 33% Flevoland 2% Supply 67% 8% Take-up Overijssel 3% Zeeland 42% 7% 58% Utrecht 25% Limburg 31% 75% 69% 57

58 58

59 AGRI- CULTURAL & RURAL

60 MORE COMPANIES ARE SOLD AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICES GOING DOWN Generally speaking, the situation on the agricultural property market was not any much better than in 215. NVM agents managed to realise more sales transactions in 216, yet average transaction prices dropped nevertheless, not only because businesses were sold for less, but also due to the composition of the property involved. More pig farms exchanged owners indeed, however they had been disposed of at relatively lower prices. On the other hand, fewer dairy farms were sold. These usually come with high transaction prices. Number of transactions Transaction price 28 Average transaction price for agricultural businesses Number of transactions involving agricultural businesses 272 1,5 x million , , ,5 6

61 SALEABILITY OF COMPANIES DEPENDS ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR More agricultural businesses were available for sale in the Netherlands in 216 (77 at year-end). In some industries, realising transactions has been something of a challenge, companies remaining on the market for quite a long time. Within the pig farming industry for instance, many companies have been on offer for more than three years. Interestingly enough, selling these companies is not a necessity, although they require a substantial investment which is chasing away interested buyers. Dairy and poultry farms, however, were sold relatively promptly last year, faster than in 215. Total supply that has been on the market for more than three years amounted to 17% since 213. A modest fall presented itself last year for the very first time. NUMBER OF COMPANIES AVAILABLE ACCORDING TO MATURITY BAND 15 PERCENTAGE OF COMPANIES ON THE MARKET FOR SALE FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS 2% Up to 6 months 6 m - 1 year 1-3 year Starting at 3 year Horse farming Dairy farming Pig farming Greenhouse horticulture business Horticulture Horse riding business stable/ boarding stable Arable farm Poultry farm Beef cattle farming

62 PIG FARMING MARKET IS SLIGHTLY PROGRESSING Even though the pig farming market struggled in previous years, better yields were obtained in 216 as prices climbed and exports increased especially to China. This was good news particularly as far as major pig farms are involved; in fact they were even able to expand. Nevertheless, an increase in sales transactions in 216 was determined by obligatory sales to a great extent. The sharp prices at which some of the pig farms were put on the market, also pushed forward the number of sales transactions. Supply hardly changed last year, also because of new supply. 42 On offer at year-end 46 New supply Withdrawn Sold