PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE

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1 MODULES & SESSIONS Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE UDIA URBAN HQ September 2016 Quarterly Report Information provided by UDIA's Partner, RPM Real Estate Group VICTORIA UDIA PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 2016 / 1 /

2 UDIA URBAN HQ PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2016 URBAN HQ UDIA Knowledge Portal URBAN HQ is a new market intelligence initiative by UDIA. Created to help fill the gap in knowledge available to the urban development industry, URBAN HQ is a portal of knowledge for residential property professionals. ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE 4 RESIDENTIAL MELBOURNE MARKET PRICES 8 FINANCE ACTIVITY 10 BUILDING ACTIVITY 14 AFFORDABILITY 16 BUYERS INSIGHT 18 PROPERTY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES 20 ABOUT RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP 22 UDIA PRINCIPLES FOR THE WAY AHEAD 24 THANK YOU TO UDIA PARTNER RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP FOR PROVIDING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED WITHIN THIS REPORT. UDIA PARTNERS DISCLAIMER: ALTHOUGH ALL CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS REPORT, THE RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP PTY LTD TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT ALL THE INFORMATION BE VERIFIED IF IT IS TO BE USED FOR COMMERCIAL PURPOSES. / 3 /

3 URBAN HQ ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE Economic activity continues to show improvement on the back of a buoyant residential real estate industry. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the June quarter 2016 increased by 0.5% from the March quarter 2016, and by a solid 3.3% from the June quarter This helped annual GDP over 2015/16 to escalate by 2.92% from the previous year. Over 2015/16, household consumption expenditure (+3.0%) and government consumption expenditure (+3.2%) both experienced solid annual growth. On the investment side, new private dwelling investment over 2015/16 escalated by an impressive 11.6%. Increased export volumes was another key driver of GDP growth. The Victorian economy has continued to strengthen in recent years with annual State Final Demand for 2015/16 increasing by a solid 4.0% from the previous year. This places Victoria ahead of all other states and territories, with New South Wales second with a growth rate of 3.7%. This strong level of economic growth resulted in Victoria experiencing robust gains in employment numbers, which has resulted in the unemployment rate at September 2016 to reach 5.7% (slightly above the national rate of 5.6%). The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points in both May and August of 2016, and with no other changes in following meetings, the cash rate is currently at a historical low of 1.50%. These reductions were broadly in response to weak inflationary pressures, along with modest household consumption and to maintain a lower Australian dollar to assist the export sector. The flow on effect of lower interest rates should assist in lifting consumer and business confidence, which then should drive demand across a broader range of sectors. MODULES & SESSIONS INTEREST RATE While banks passed on the full 25 basis point reduction to their standard variable interest rate for owner occupiers in May 2016, they only passed on a reduction of approximately 15 basis points in August This resulted in the standard variable interest rate for owner occupiers at August 2016 to sit at 5.25% (which is 375 basis points above the cash rate). Nevertheless, with some bargaining owner occupiers can obtain a discounted interest rate of 4.50% from major lenders. The RBA has decided to leave the cash rate unchanged after their September, October and November meetings with the national rate of growth remaining below expectation on the back of continued declines in mining investment. The RBA has been able to keep rates at a historical low as inflationary pressures remain well under their 3% cap at 1.7%. Furthermore, leading economists and major banks are factoring in at least one more rate cut in the next three to four months as the belief is that the market will require additional stimulus. A leading indicator of when an interest rate cut might occur will largely depend on retail sales in the lead up to Christmas. CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely quoted barometer of consumer sentiment in Australia. A score of greater than 100 means that optimists outnumber pessimists, with readings of below 100 indicating that pessimistic consumers are in the majority. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has increased steadily in each of the three months to September 2016 to (+2.3%). This suggests that an upward trend in consumer sentiment is coming through, despite some volatility in both the domestic and international economy. / 4 / UDIA PROPERTY URBAN HQ: DEVELOPMENT PROPERTY MARKET PROGRAM UPDATE 2016 / 5 /

4 MODULES & SESSIONS POPULATION VICTORIA Victoria gained 38,808 people during the March quarter 2016 (latest available data), lifting its estimated resident population to 6,039,078 people. Victoria s estimated population growth over the year to March 2016 of 114,865 people, or 1.94%, were both the strongest amongst all states and territories. URBAN HQ ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE CONTINUED BUSINESS CONFIDENCE NAB s Business Survey has been tracking Australian business confidence levels for more than two decades. Businesses are approached quarterly, with two smaller monthly surveys conducted in the intervening months to capture changes on a more regular basis. The panel now exceeds 2,700 businesses. The September result indicated a recovery of business conditions, after the Brexit decision and the Federal election caused sentiment to weaken in the preceding three months. The business conditions index rose to +6.7 points in September 2016, attributed to lower borrowing costs after many business lending rates were reduced during August This result also suggests that organisations are looking beyond the uncertainties. POPULATION COMPONENTS Source: ABS A breakdown of the three components of population growth shows that in the March quarter 2016 Victoria recorded; NATURAL INCREASE +12,059 persons over the quarter +37,551 persons over the 12 months to March 2016 (-3.4%); reflects 26% of the national increase NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION +4,386 persons over the quarter +14,529 persons over the 12 months to March 2016 (48.6%) NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION +22,363 persons over the quarter +62,785 persons over the 12 months to March 2016 (+7.6%). Reflects 35% of the national intake well above the long term average of between 25-30% POPULATION FORECAST The Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning recently released their updated population and household projections, Victoria in Future The following is based on the information presented in this report (YEAR ENDING JUNE) Natural increase +18% from 38,958 to 46,245 (+7,287 people) Overseas migration +14% from 57,391 to 65,229 (+7,838 people) Population +9% increase of 556,886 people *a detraction of interstate migration is forecast from 11,500 people in 2016 to 3,000 to 2021 / 6 / UDIA PROPERTY URBAN HQ: DEVELOPMENT PROPERTY MARKET PROGRAM UPDATE 2016 / 7 /

5 URBAN HQ RESIDENTIAL MELBOURNE MARKET PRICES Property prices in Melbourne have trended upwards since the middle of 2013, with detached houses achieving stronger growth than units. The established housing market to date remains robust when compared to other states with roughly 26,500 auctions held in Victoria over the first nine months of 2016 with a clearance rate of 74% (REIV). Nevertheless, the number of auction sales from January to September 2016 is 9.9% lower than the corresponding period a year earlier, where the clearance rate was 76% (REIV). Source: REIV, RPM Research Division At September 2016 preliminary data recorded: House prices rose to a median of $740,000 (+2.9% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) Unit prices rose to a median of $545,000 (+3.0% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) Land prices rose to a median of $228,000 (+8.6% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier) The 8.6% growth recorded in the September quarter takes into account all growth corridors of Melbourne. The overall gain consists of corridors recording rates between -6.3% (Melton) to 16.1% (Cardinia) which is largely dictated by the fundamentals of supply and demand for land in the corridor. Source: REIV, RPM Research Division / 8 / / 9 /

6 URBAN HQ FINANCE ACTIVITY: VICTORIA LOANS BY DWELLING TYPE Improving state economic conditions and historically low borrowing costs has led to owner occupier demand remaining strong through This is highlighted by the total number of dwellings financed in September quarter 2016 rising by 1% from the previous corresponding quarter. Within the dwelling types, growth was strongest in loans for the construction of a dwelling at 3.1%. Loans for the purchase of a new dwelling and an established dwelling remained static. Over the twelve months to September 2016, the total number of dwellings financed was 11.3% higher than in the twelve months leading up to September Interestingly, annual growth in loans for the purchase of a new dwelling (15.2%) was much greater than that for the construction of a dwelling (5.3%), suggesting strong demand for a newly finished product. VALUE OF WORK DONE The total value of owner occupier loans in June quarter 2016 was a sizeable 23.1% higher than the previous corresponding quarter and by 27.3% over the 2015/16 period. Conversely, the total value of loans to investors in the June quarter 2016 declined by 12.6% compared to the June quarter 2015, as a result of tighter lending restrictions to investor purchasers. Consequently, the value of investor finance in 2015/16 was 11.4% below 2014/15. / 10 / / 11 /

7 URBAN HQ FINANCE ACTIVITY: VICTORIA CONTINUED NUMBER OF LOANS TO FIRST HOME BUYERS AND NON-FIRST HOME BUYERS The number of loans attributed to FHBs reached 6,611 in September quarter 2016 a slight decrease of 2% from the September quarter Dwellings financed to non-fhbs recorded 38,261 loans in September quarter 2016 up by a marginal 1% on the same quarter a year earlier. While FHB activity has contracting, their overall share remained at a historical low (15% of total loans) which highlights present affordability constraints. AVERAGE LOAN SIZE FIRST HOME BUYERS AND NON-FIRST HOME BUYERS The average loan size to FHBs has remained steady from September quarter 2015 to September quarter 2016, and edged down slightly by 2% for non-fhbs. The divergence between the average loan amount to FHBs and non-fhbs began widening through 2014, and has widened considerably more from At September 2016, the average loan size attributed to a non-fhb sat at $54,133 above the average loan size to FHBs ($320,267). Source: ABS / 12 / / 13 /

8 COMMENCEMENTS The HIA has estimated that detached houses will finish the 2015/16 financial year at 34,390 starts some 6.2% up from 2014/15. Over the same period, multi-unit dwellings are estimated to have ended at 34,950 dwellings up by 6.6%. Overall, total dwellings starts are estimated to have increased by 6.4% over 2015/16 to 69,340 dwellings, with this figure likely to be a cyclical peak. URBAN HQ BUILDING ACTIVITY: VICTORIA APPROVALS Over the three year forecast period, the HIA estimates detached house starts will fall to an annual average of 29,773 dwellings which would reflect a 13.4% fall from the 2015/16 outcome. More prominent is the estimate that multi-unit starts are expected to fall to an average of 21,080 dwellings per annum, which reflects a 39.4% fall from 2015/16. Even though commencements are anticipated to retract over the next three years they are likely to remain at acceptable levels. Interestingly, the latest data released by the HIA in August 2016 (which is reflected in the graph below) is an improvement from the forecast from earlier in the year, which indicates that the downward adjustment might not be as severe as first anticipated. New detached home building approvals in the September quarter 2016 recorded 9,748 dwellings, which was the highest quarterly total since the September quarter This most recent result re-instates the buoyant new home building market. In total, 18,013 dwellings were approved for construction in the September quarter 2016, equating to a gain of 4.5% from the previous corresponding quarter. Over the twelve months to September 2016, 36,364 detached homes were approved which reflect an increase of 7.7% from the same period a year earlier. Interestingly, even though there has been a large amount of media talk about a potential oversupply of apartments, a further 5,689 dwellings were approved in the September quarter 2016 which reflects a 12.9% increase over the quarter. Nevertheless, over the course of the twelve months to September 2016, a 20.5% decline was recorded when compared to the same time a year earlier. Source: HIA Source: ABS / 14 / / 15 /

9 MODULES & SESSIONS URBAN HQ AFFORDABILITY Over the past decade housing affordability has received an increasing share of media attention. Generally, FHBs are noted as the cohort that bears the brunt of consistently increasing house prices. However, in more recent times the dialogue has shifted to include all cohorts who particularly have a desire to reside in the middle ring of Melbourne but find it increasingly unaffordable to do so. However, the silver lining for potential homebuyers is the vast range of new land estates available throughout the growth areas of Melbourne and Greater Geelong. This high level of supply (courtesy of an active planning department) has resulted in intense developer competition which has kept prices in check and allowed for not only FHBs, but also other market cohorts the ability to select from a range of suburbs and lot sizes. Along with developer competition, there is a high level of competition amongst builders which has also allowed for potential savings for buyers. These positive variables, coupled with historical low interest rates has improved affordability levels. The common benchmark for identifying housing stress in Australia has historically been identified as those households that allocate at least 30% of disposable household income to finance their mortgage. This ratio has been in place for decades and in recent times there is a growing view that the ratio should be closer to 35% to reflect the market of today. The chart below reflects 34 suburbs throughout the growth corridors of Melbourne and Greater Geelong. At the top end of the chart, Williams Landing, Greenvale and Point Cook which all have minimal vacant land register the highest proportion of income required to finance their mortgages. At the other end of the chart, the three suburbs that contained the smallest proportion of income required to finance their mortgages were all located around the Melton Township. Additionally, the ratio of mortgage repayments to income was below 30% in Wyndham Vale and Curlewis/Drysdale, and on 30% in Pakenham, Werribee and Donnybrook. This positive affordability level can be explained by the vast levels of competition which has stifled land price growth. In total, 20 of the 34 suburbs covered recorded a ratio of between 31-35% which indicates a level that is starting to press households. However, the ratio could be far worse if it wasn t for the large level of land supply that has come on to the market in recent years. Nevertheless, if the roll out of PSPs slow, price pressures will adversely affect affordability levels. CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS The chart depicts the median land price by suburb/area, along with an indicative build cost of $200,000. The chart also assumes a 20% deposit has been paid and mortgage repayments are based on a 30 year loan at the current rate of 4.50%. In addition, we have used our internal buyer surveys to determine the median household income. That is we have used the median income identified by individual corridors less tax to provide a more accurate level of disposable income. / 16 / UDIA PROPERTY URBAN HQ: DEVELOPMENT PROPERTY MARKET PROGRAM UPDATE 2016 / 17 /

10 CONSUMER PREFERENCES The proportion of purchasers who considered the factors below as being important to very important in their purchase decision was: 90% for price 85% for block size 85% for parklands and open space URBAN HQ BUYERS INSIGHT BASED ON RPM ESTATES THROUGH THE MELBOURNE GROWTH CORRIDOR PURCHASER PROFILE 77% for fibre optic network 76% for reputation of developer 75% for building/design guidelines 69% for being familiar with the municipality/area 55% for recycled water 43% for estate facilities 34% for heritage and history Two countries accounted for a significant proportion of purchasers, with 23% born in Australia and 20% born in India. The next most common birthplace of purchasers was Sri Lanka and China, with each accounting for 3% of buyers. People aged from 25 to 34 years old constituted 50% of all purchasers, with a further 31% of purchasers aged from 35 to 49 years old. This suggests a high incidence of young couples without children and couples with children households amongst purchasers. The majority of purchasers contained a household income of below $100,000, with 60% earning between $40,000 and $100,000, compared to 37% containing a household income of over $100, car households constituted 59% of purchasers, with 30% having 1 car. This was the dominate mode of transport to a person s place of employment, with 86% of purchasers travelling by car to work. The Herald Sun was the most regular read newspaper among 55% of purchasers, with a further 18% of purchasers regularly reading The Age newspaper. PROXIMITY PREFERENCES The proportion of purchasers who considered the factors below as being important to very important in their purchase decision was: 87% for major roads/freeways 85% for shops 79% for community and recreational facilities 75% for public transport 73% for education/child care 66% for workplace 65% for friends and relatives 44% for current residence / 18 / / 19 /

11 VICTORIAN PLANNING AUTHORITY - In September, the Casey Central Town Centre PSP was approved. Once complete, the region will provide over 4,100 jobs and house an estimated 5,100 people in 2,300 dwellings. - The Quarry Hills Precinct Structure Plan (PSP), located Epping/Wollert was approved in October. It is envisaged that the PSP will contain more than 2,300 dwellings and house approximately 6,600 people. URBAN HQ PROPERTY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES - Also approved in October (and ahead of schedule) was the 752 hectare Rockbank PSP which includes more than 8,000 homes and is anticipated to house more than 22,000. Also released in October was the VPAs 2016/17 work program. This includes the VPA greenfield projects: INFRASTRUCTURE CONTRIBUTION PLAN (ICP) In October, the state Government introduced a standard ICP for Melbourne greenfield growth areas. Under the new system, the Standard Levy will be charged per net developable hectare in the greenfield growth areas of Melbourne as follows; $339,000 South East region $328,500 North and West region The Standard Levy will be effective immediately and the contributions will go towards essential local infrastructure items including community & recreation c construction, transport construction and public land. According to the UDIA, these charges reflect a 40% increase from the average development charges that were in play in July Source: VPA Source: ABS / 20 / / 21 /

12 THANK YOU TO UDIA PARTNER RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP FOR PROVIDING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED WITHIN THIS REPORT. ABOUT RPM RPM is a dynamic, results-driven residential sales agency with a strong commitment to creating researchbacked strategies that deliver higher revenues, faster sales rates and better returns for our clients. Founded over two decades ago as a residential land sales specialist, today RPM Real Estate Group has grown to encompass over 100 employees across six specialist divisions. We manage a portfolio of 32 developments across Melbourne and Greater Geelong including land estates, apartments and townhouses. At RPM, our difference lies not only in our experience and in-house capabilities, but our passion for the people within our business as well as our valued clients. Through our dedication to creating a culture of enthusiastic and committed property experts, we are proud to have built a team with expertise spanning all facets of property sales, research and advisory services. Our continued expansion and reinvestment into our research services mean we offer unsurpassed market intelligence and data-driven insights to our clients, to help drive the continued growth of their projects and asset portfolio. A full-service agency, we pride ourselves on advising our clients through every step of the process; from the initial site diligence, acquisitions and master-planning, through to the launch and sales strategies and ongoing marketing. RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP ONE OF VICTORIA S LARGEST RESIDENTIAL SALES AGENCIES SELLING APPROXIMATELY 25% OF ALL RESIDENTIAL LOTS IN 2015/16 OVER 4,600 LOT SALES IN THE PAST YEAR OVER $1 BILLION IN LAND SALES IN THE PAST YEAR 100 PLUS STRONG TEAM 32 ACTIVE PROJECTS 42,000 TOTAL YIELD OF CURRENT PROJECTS FIVE UDIA AWARDS FOR EXCELLENCE CONTACT RPM P: F: E: ENQUIRIES@RPMREALESTATE.COM.AU W: / 22 / / 23 /

13 MODULES & SESSIONS UDIA PRINCIPLES FOR THE WAY AHEAD These principles will guide UDIA as we embark on a journey of growth and as we solidify our long term, sustainable position as the urban development industry s association of choice. LEADERSHIP Drive the thought leadership agenda and exercise tangible influence with government and other stakeholders EXPERTISE AND INNOVATION Offer innovative membership services that respond to the changing needs of our industry INFLUENCE Be known as the pre-eminent expert organisation on housing and urban development KNOWLEDGE Be the go-to organisation for industry knowledge and business building insights INDUSTRY SUCCESS Advance and support the industry in the public arena and facilitate industry recognition and promotion DEEPLY CONNECTED Facilitate a fruitful business environment by connecting industry and government stakeholders URBAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA (VIC) udiavic.com.au info@udiavic.com.au Designed by Blaze: blazeadvertising.com.au LOYALTY Possess a deeply loyal membership base as a result of consistently providing solid member services VICTORIA UDIA PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 2016 / 25 /

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