THE ELUSIVE CAP RATE Finding & Supporting Cap Rates in Uncertain Times

Transcription

1 THE ELUSIVE CAP RATE Finding & Supporting Cap Rates in Uncertain Times Presented May 14, 2013 at the New Hampshire Association of Assessing Officers in Concord, NH by Peter F. Korpacz, MAI, CRE, FRICS Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

2 Contents The Economic Environment Real Estate Market Trends Defensible Cap Rate Sources and Techniques Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

3 Take-aways from this session How to use economic trends, leasing trends, and transaction market trends to support or criticize an appraisal Dialogue on persuasive market-supported methodologies to help bullet-proof appraisals you use Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

4 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc. The Economic Environment

5 GDP growth positive but underwhelming Annual Percentage Change in GDP Q13 3/ / /2007-6/ Percentage Change /1990-3/1991 7/ / Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc. Shaded areas reflect U.S. recession dates.

6 Strong job growth in 2013 through April 5,000 3,500 Average Annual Change in Nonfarm Employment 1990 April 2013 (April ,000 jobs v. April ,000 jobs) 12/2007-6/2009 Change in Thousands 2, ,000-2,500 3/ /2001-4,000 7/1990-3/1991-5, Annual figures are based on December to December figures, while monthly figures are based on the difference in the previous month. Shaded areas reflect U.S. recession dates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc Feb 2013 Apr 2013

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8 Initial unemployment claims trending downward 700, , , ,000 7/1990-3/1991 Weekly Unemployment Claims 1990 April 20, 2013* (April 21, 2012: 392,000 vs. April 20, 2013: 339,000) 3/ / /2007-6/ , , , , , ,000 1/6/90 6/15/91 11/21/92 4/30/94 10/7/95 3/15/97 8/22/98 1/29/00 7/7/01 12/14/02 5/22/04 10/29/05 4/7/07 9/13/08 2/20/10 7/30/11 1/5/13 Note: Figure for 4/20/2013 seasonally adjusted, advanced data. Shaded areas reflect U.S. recession dates. Source: U.S. Department of Labor Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Realty Inc. Advisors

9 Retail sales growth moderates 12.25% Retail Sales Percentage Change Over Prior Year 1993 March 2013 Recession 12/2007-6/ % 7.25% 4.75% 2.25% -0.25% -2.75% -5.25% Recession 3/ / % % % Total Retail Sales Total Retail Sales-Food Services ex. Auto Note: Annual percentage change refers to change in December over prior December; monthly percentage change refers to change over same month in prior year Source: Census Bureau Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

10 Real Estate Market Trends Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

11 Distress update Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

12 Office leasing markets continue to improve 125,000 75,000 25,000-25,000-75,000 Vacancy Rent Inflation 18.0% 14.0% 10.0% 6.0% 2.0% -2.0% -6.0% -10.0% -125, % Completions Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Rent Inflation Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

13 Office transaction volume up slightly from prior year Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

14 Office pricing continues to stabilize Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

15 Industrial leasing markets continue to improve 400, , , , , ,000 Vacancy Rent Inflation 17.0% 13.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% -3.0% -7.0% -300, % Completions Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Rent Inflation Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

16 Industrial transaction volume jumps over prior year Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

17 Industrial pricing continues to stabilize Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

18 Retail leasing markets continue to improve 115,000 Vacancy 90,000 65, % 10.5% 8.0% 40,000 15,000-10,000 Rent Inflation 5.5% 3.0% 0.5% -2.0% -4.5% -35, % Completions Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Rent Inflation Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

19 Retail transaction volume drops significantly Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

20 Retail pricing continues to stabilize Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

21 Apartment leasing markets continue to stabilize 380, ,000 Vacancy 7.5% 240, % 170, % 100,000 30, % -40,000 Rent Inflation -2.5% -110, % Completions Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Rent Inflation Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

22 Apartment transaction volume record high in 1Q13 Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

23 Apartment prices still increasing Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

24 Hotel RevPar & occupancy continue to improve Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

25 Hotel volume trends huge increase over prior year Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

26 Hotel cap rates and prices stabilizing Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. First Quarter 2013, published April 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

27 Defensible Cap Rate Sources and Techniques Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

28 NOI calculation before/after Replacement reserves Leasing commissions TIs Must be reflected in NOI or cap rate Contract rent/noi at, above, or below market rent If at market, is it a proxy for a fee simple sale? Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

29 NOI year to capitalize Last year Date of sale annualized Forecast year one What is the market doing? Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

30 Best sources of defendable cap rates Comparable sales preferred technique Personal investor survey up close and personal Published surveys good foundation but may be over used and relied upon Mortgage and equity Band of Investment (if sale of subject would be leveraged) Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

31 Least useful sources of defendable cap rates Debt coverage ratio used mostly by lenders to better insure loan safety Built-up rate safe rate, illiquidity, management, real estate risk ACLI partially appraisal based Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

32 When comparable sales are scare Sale No. UPDATE CAP RATES ON OLDER SALES Date of Sale Deal Cap Rate Subject Valuation Date Updated Cap Rate 1 1/10/ /1/ Must understand 2 4/25/ /1/ why rate 3 10/25/ /1/ changed Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

33 Or use sales from competing/national markets Shopping centers Corporate headquarters Large distribution warehouse Large CBD office and apartments Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

34 Personal investor surveys Targeted to specific markets, property type, and date Opportunity to survey Local economic, demographic, and leasing trends that drive cap rates NOI calculation Contract-to-market rent relationship Handling of TIs and major capital needs Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

35 Published surveys Recognized source for investors, lenders, and courts Timely published quarterly Provides support for DCF forecasts Can support pricing methodology Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

36 Band of Investment technique Weighted Component Average Investment Component Contribution Rates Mortgage M x R m Equity E x R e + Overall Capitalization Rate M = Mortgage as a percent of total property investment R m = Ratio of annual debt service to the loan balance (mortgage constant) E = Equity as a percent of total property investment R e = Ratio of equity cash flow to the equity investment (equity dividend rate) Equity dividend rate R e support can come from 1. Comparable sales (problematic) 2. ACLI data (appraisal based) 3. Investor interviews (probably the best choice) Reflects a leveraged sale Would the subject property sell on a leveraged basis? Equity dividend rate difficult to support Does it reflect a fee simple or leased fee estate? Requires adequate research and market support Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

37 Equity dividend rate extraction examples Equity Dividend Cap Rates from Comparable Sales Sale Number % Mortgage Interest Rate % Overall Cap Rate % Equity Dividend Rate % Can range be explained? Equity Dividend Rates Inferred from ACLI Data (Retail Properties) Mortgage Inferred Equity DCR Interest Constant L-T-V Indicated Dividend Rate Date Ratio Rate % % Ratio OAR % % 1Q Q Q Q Q Can range be explained? DCR = debt coverage ratio; L-T-V = loan to value ratio Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

38 Recommendations Consider all relevant sources and techniques Rely on those with identifiable and persuasive market support Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

39 Drug store retail historical pricing trends Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. Trends & Trades May 8, 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

40 Drug store retail historical pricing trends Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. Trends & Trades May 8, 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

41 Drug store retail historical market performance Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc. Trends & Trades May 8, 2013 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Korpacz Inc. Realty Advisors

42 Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc. Addenda

43 Sources of published cap rate information Real Capital Analytics, Inc. ( REIS ( PricewaterhouseCoopers Investor Survey (formerly the Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey) ( Real Estate Research Corporation ( ACLI ( RealtyRates.com ( CoStar ( Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

44 Other useful research sources GDP Bureau of Economic Analysis ( Employment Information Bureau of Labor Statistics ( and U.S. Department of Labor ( Retail Sales U.S. Census ( Housing Information National Association of Realtors ( Capital Markets Information Real Capital Analytics, Inc. ( In addition to collecting transactional information, RCA interprets the data, including capitalization rates, market trends, pricing, and sales volume. The firm publishes a series of Capital Trends reports and offers an online service that provides real-time, global transactional market information. For more information, contact Leasing and Capital Market Information CBRE/Torto Wheaton Research ( Outlook product provides detailed data and quarterly forecasts on real estate fundamentals and capital markets across five property types; custom reports are available. For more information, contact Ken O Brien, Director, Client Services kobrien@tortowheatonresearch.com or Tracking the Credit Crisis: A Timeline Mu$eum of American Finance (moaf.org), 48 Wall Street, New York, NY, traces the development of the economy since the beginning of the financial crisis. Outside the Box is a free weekly economic e-letter by best-selling author and renowned financial expert, John Mauldin. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting (highly recommended by Pete Korpacz) Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

45 The following is an excerpt from Tracking the Credit Crisis: A Timeline an exhibit at the Mu$eum of American Finance Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.

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53 THE ELUSIVE CAP RATE Finding & Supporting Cap Rates in Uncertain Times Peter F. Korpacz, MAI, CRE, FRICS President Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc Glen Abbey Drive Mount Airy, MD phone fax Korpacz Realty Advisors, Inc.